Vegas and everyone is out of their mind. I'm a huge gopher fan but have been cashing in last 11 games. My buddy is in Vegas now and I told him tonight Mich. State was his bailout play of the night. Not to mention Mich. State was only giving Minn 3 second half. Easiest money out there these days. Vegas usually tight with their lines but not even close with many of these games.
Insane to me that this is even a discussion. We all saw last year what Pitino could do with a healthy team. It would be interesting to look at last year's posts I'll bet most of the negative posters were singing his praises. Somehow in one year he's completely forgotten how to coach.
Last year’s team was solid and got oveseeded in the tournament. It was a nice team, as this year’s would’ve been if healthy, but not a top 10 team.
Vegas isn't "out of their minds" they have a lot of people watching games and crunching various numbers to come up with their lines. They keep downgrading the Gophers, and the Gophers still don't cover. That's an indictment on Minnesota, not Vegas. If what Minnesota was doing post Lynch was "normal" or "predictable" the lines would reflect it. Michigan State's last 3 games were all decided by exactly 3 points including a game against a horrific Iowa team. They had not defeated a team by double digits in their past 5. In their 6 games prior to playing Minnesota they were 0-4 against the spread (2 pushes), and Vegas still made them 10.5 point favorites tonight.
An indictment of the Gophers? Yeah, they are terrible at this point. We had a lineup of Gaston, Hurt, Fitz, Harris and Washington out there for a while last night. Two frosh, a guy who was out of basketball for two years and looks the part and two guys who have no business in a Big Ten lineup. Bad of Pitino to recruit Gaston and Konate together 4 years ago- no doubt. But you show me teams that can lose 4 of their top six players before and during the season and 95% of the are going to be terrible. They have nothing left. Double Murphy and hedge toward Mason and we are toast. Every team has a couple of guys on their bench that are not ready to play. Ours are getting big minutes. Extraordinary situation. Throw it in the garbage and start fresh next year.
Not sure that i agree with overseeded. May have seemed that way with Mason on one leg and Springs out. Agree that this year's team likely not top 10.
Good post. Hurt played 31 minutes last night. 31 minutes! BK and GD played a combined 27 minutes. Harris played 27 minutes.
Against Michigan State!!!! LOL.
Easiest money ever betting ATS. But EG#9 is SO right, Vegas isn't set up to profit, they are set up to accurately represent the most realistic outcome of a college basketball game, brilliant! It's #1 aim isn't profiteering, it's about the integrity of setting the "proper" spread! .... I can assure you that if Vegas was losing money on the Gophers, they would set more "accurate" spreads. Apparently there either so few people betting on these games that it doesn't move the needle much, or somehow people haven't awoken to the ineptitude of this Gophers lineup. Not even to mention that it's unknown at the time of the spread being set whether or not certain injured players will suit up for a given game. Hey EG#9, you're right though, judging the Gophers ATS is pure basketball genius, keep up the good work!
The NCAA loves RPI too much and we had a fluky good RPI. We were ranked 35th-40th in KenPom all year and Vegas slotted is as such for the MTSU game. We should’ve been a 9 seed or thereabouts. We were matched up with another team that was a 7 or 8 seed caliber in MTSU and therefore were underdogs. MTSU played out of their minds and made the even matchup look worse, but we were not a 5 seed last year.
Yeah. @Ill, @Rutgers, Iowa, IU, Michigan, @MD, PSU, Neb. IU was a buzzer beater and Iowa and Michigan OT. It was a fun streak, but we didn't beat anyone the caliber of this year's MSU, Purdue or even OSU.
If Pitino returns, I hope Coyle demands that he make changes to the staff and go get a defensive guru like coach Mo.
There is no "if" with Pitino and the fact that people think his job is in jeopardy truly baffles me. He and his $5 million-plus buyout aren't going anywhere.
Quite frankly, take 4 of the top 6 guys off any team in the country, or the Big 10 for that matter, and they would be in their league where the Gophers are now. Take Trent Jr., Bagley, Carter and Duval or Grayson Allen away from Duke and they're a bottom-feeder ACC team. The Gophers didn't have a great chance to win without Coffey and McBrayer, because you're still without Lynch and he takes away the paint and guards hesitate to drive the lane. Without a rim protector, opponents aren't afraid of anything Minnesota has defensively. But with Coffey and McBrayer, they at least had a chance. It wasn't great, but they at least had options.
Michigan State played very well and did exactly what they should do against a team that has little to no chance with so many guys out. Let's hope we can beat Illinois and Rutgers.
The NCAA loves RPI too much and we had a fluky good RPI. We were ranked 35th-40th in KenPom all year and Vegas slotted is as such for the MTSU game. We should’ve been a 9 seed or thereabouts. We were matched up with another team that was a 7 or 8 seed caliber in MTSU and therefore were underdogs. MTSU played out of their minds and made the even matchup look worse, but we were not a 5 seed last year.
You said we would have to be 10-4 to be ranked going into last night's game. Were 2-1 after January 3rd so would have had to go 8-3 against Indiana, @NW, Purdue, @Penn St, @Maryland, Ohio St, NW, @Iowa, @Michigan, Nebraska, @Indiana. Besides Purdue and Ohio St, that isn't really murderers row or anything.
I have no idea how the season would have played out had there not been all the injuries and suspension. Not impossible to think they could have been ranked going into the game with MSU.
There is always an "if". If some die hard group of fans offers up $5 mil to get ride of RP, would Coyle show him the door?There is no "if" with Pitino and the fact that people think his job is in jeopardy truly baffles me. He and his $5 million-plus buyout aren't going anywhere.
Quite frankly, take 4 of the top 6 guys off any team in the country, or the Big 10 for that matter, and they would be in their league where the Gophers are now. Take Trent Jr., Bagley, Carter and Duval or Grayson Allen away from Duke and they're a bottom-feeder ACC team. The Gophers didn't have a great chance to win without Coffey and McBrayer, because you're still without Lynch and he takes away the paint and guards hesitate to drive the lane. Without a rim protector, opponents aren't afraid of anything Minnesota has defensively. But with Coffey and McBrayer, they at least had a chance. It wasn't great, but they at least had options.
Michigan State played very well and did exactly what they should do against a team that has little to no chance with so many guys out. Let's hope we can beat Illinois and Rutgers.
Good post. Hurt played 31 minutes last night. 31 minutes! BK and GD played a combined 27 minutes. Harris played 27 minutes.
Against Michigan State!!!! LOL.
Easiest money ever betting ATS. But EG#9 is SO right, Vegas isn't set up to profit, they are set up to accurately represent the most realistic outcome of a college basketball game, brilliant! It's #1 aim isn't profiteering, it's about the integrity of setting the "proper" spread! .... I can assure you that if Vegas was losing money on the Gophers, they would set more "accurate" spreads. Apparently there either so few people betting on these games that it doesn't move the needle much, or somehow people haven't awoken to the ineptitude of this Gophers lineup. Not even to mention that it's unknown at the time of the spread being set whether or not certain injured players will suit up for a given game. Hey EG#9, you're right though, judging the Gophers ATS is pure basketball genius, keep up the good work!
So I think you are attempting sarcasm and or to mock me here, but you are actually making my point. Vegas is set up for profit, they set lines to encourage action on both sides and make money on the juice. On the occasions where a line does draw action on both sides it's usually adjusted to do so. On occasions where the line doesn't move and Vegas "needs" Team X, they are pretty comfortable in Team X winning or covering or they would have adjusted the line. Some teams are known "public" teams such as the Cowboys, Packers, Steelers, and Patriots in the NFL. There is often value betting against these for this reason. If anything Michigan State's line would have been inflated against the Gophers (ex the true number was closer to 9 instead of 10.5) given their relative popularity. However, you seem to acknowledge everything I have said when you state "I can assure you that if Vegas was losing money on the Gophers they would set more accurate spreads" EXACTLY. So wouldn't this then be a metric, albeit an imperfect one, to measure how the Gophers are performing?
I think the Gophers beating Michigan State last night would have been the most unlikely win in more than two decades of following the team. That's partly based on the talent discrepancy between the two teams and partly based on what I see as a team that hasn't been giving great effort frequently. Was I surprised the Gophers lost by more than 10.5 pts? No. Should it be ok to lose by 30 and have Dakich correctly point out the game was being played with all the intensity of a preseason intra squad scrimmage? Also no.
The main source of disagreement seems to be what is acceptable and/or what is reasonable expectations for this team on a game by game basis. We have some posters (including bga who I disagree with on this issue, but respect his opinion) who think this team is playing hard and this is just unavoidable. We have others who believe that while the season was destined to be a disappointment post Lynch, that with better effort/coaching this team would at least have a few more wins.
From my perspective, the Gophers had plenty of talent on the court to win the home games against Indiana and Northwestern and should have won at Iowa. I also think they could have beat Nebraska at home. I point to outside information like Ken Pom or Vegas to point out that people who have no emotional investment in the outcome of these games also though the Gophers could/should win these games. There isn't data on the "other" side of this argument. It's all based on the eye test and/or emotion.
I do think he gets next year. (Think the ceiling is the not). I just don’t get how he has earned such a pass from posters. They like to say ur going to fire the big ten coach of the year. That is a tired argument and only happens because they were historically bad the year before. Guess who was the national coach of the year in 2016 in two publications. And was the unanimous big twelve coach of the year? Yep tubby those awards mean squat. Guy has accomplished nothing.
The decision would need to be based upon how the present squad is running the offense and executing on defense. At that level Tino has not done well.That's a fair take. I just have no idea how anyone can make a decision based on this season. Zero luck. I am betting next year is very good. If there is no NCAA berth next year-this discussion becomes very valid.
The decision would need to be based upon how the present squad is running the offense and executing on defense. At that level Tino has not done well.
If I had the time I’d love to see if any coach in the big ten had as bad as record as he does and gets a 6th year outside of chambers.
There are coaches who could win 7-9 games with our roster.
Well, I believe this is Tim Miles' 6th year. He had one NCAA tournament appearance in the prior five years (they lost their first game in the NCAA tournament and also in the Big Ten tournament) and the other four seasons were losing seasons. Obviously, given how his team has played, he won't be fired after his 6th year.
Pitino's first five years, although hardly great by any power conference standards, were better than Miles' first five years.
I don't expect Pitino to be fired although I agree he really hasn't earned a 6th year. Having said that, I more optimistic than some about next year's team. Unless we have more critical injuries (or poor recoveries from injuries) or transfers of people we don't want to leave, we should have more depth than at any time in Pitino's tenure here. I don't expect us to have three or four players who are either unavailable or just flat out not good enough to play at this level.
Great post. The only expectation would have been to hold MSU under 75