Bracketology

overpass

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Gophers have cracked into Creme's vision board. They are the first of Next Four Out.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

The committee also revealed their current Top 16 seeds.

1. Connecticut
2. Mississippi State
3. Louisville
4. Oregon

5. Tennessee
6. Notre Dame
7. Texas
8. South Carolina

9. Baylor
10. Ohio State
11. Florida State
12. UCLA

13. Missouri
14. Texas A&M
15. Rutgers
16. Georgia
 


Michigan State in??? They are not good and will be lucky to finish .500 in league.
 

Michigan State in??? They are not good and will be lucky to finish .500 in league.

Romping over Maryland in College Park always turns some heads. They are 4-2 now and it's pretty easy to project six more conference wins for a 10-6 finish.
 

A new update was published today. Gophers are now the 2nd of next four out or 6th team out overall.

South Dakota State as an at-large and Nebraska are the last two teams in.
 


Nebraska and Minnesota were side-by-side in his bracket as next four out and now he has Nebraska in as an #11 seed. Iowa is still in as #9 seed and Purdue as a #10 seed, so if we can sweep them on the road (tall but doable order), the Gophers should make an appearance on his bracket.
 

Gophers are about where they deserve to be. They'll have a chance to play their win in with the remainder of the BIG schedule, although it will be a tall order. Their strength of schedule could really hurt them . Whoever set up the non-conference schedule didn't do the Gophers any favors.
 

Note that Creme does not think TCU, which has proven itself much more than the Gophers, is in. Their strength of schedule IS going to hurt them.
 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ins-uconn-mississippi-state-and-louisville-no

NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee – February 1 – Top-16 Ranking*

1. UConn (No. 1 seed – Albany Region)
2. Mississippi State (No. 1 seed – Kansas City Region)
3. Louisville (No. 1 seed – Lexington Region)
4. Notre Dame (No. 1 seed – Spokane Region)
5. Oregon
6. Baylor
7. South Carolina
8. Florida State
9. Texas
10. UCLA
11. Tennessee
12. Georgia
13. Maryland
14. Missouri
15. Michigan
16. Texas A&M
 





I kinda like where’s he put the Gophers. Needing to beat Oregon in Eugene in order to make the Sweet 16 is a scary thought, but it’s better than playing Baylor. And I consider Notre Dame the weakest of the #1 seeds.

I’d like the Gophers to avoid the #8 or #9 seeds and reach for a #7 seed or higher. Go Gophers!
 

It's fun to be talking bracketology again and to have the Gophers on the top side of that.
 



I kinda like where’s he put the Gophers. Needing to beat Oregon in Eugene in order to make the Sweet 16 is a scary thought, but it’s better than playing Baylor. And I consider Notre Dame the weakest of the #1 seeds.

I’d like the Gophers to avoid the #8 or #9 seeds and reach for a #7 seed or higher. Go Gophers!

Season-end RPI is now projected at 36, which should be fairly comfortable, especially with a soft bubble and the Gophers owning the head-to-head over a couple of likely bubble teams. A nine-game win streak to end the season and a B1G tourney crown would certainly seem to indicate better than an 8 or 9 seed, if they can do it.
 

The Selection Committees last reveal (with regional assignments) before selection Sunday. Maryland and Ohio State in top 16:

1. UConn (No. 1 seed – Albany Region)
2. Mississippi State (No. 1 seed – Kansas City Region)
3. Louisville (No. 1 seed – Lexington Region)
4. Notre Dame (No. 1 seed – Spokane Region)
5. Baylor
6. Oregon
7. South Carolina
8. Texas
9. Florida State
10. UCLA
11. Missouri
12. Tennessee
13. Ohio State
14. Maryland
15. Georgia
16. Stanford


Albany:

1. UConn
2. South Carolina
3. Florida State
4. Stanford


Kansas City:
1. Mississippi State
2. Texas
3. UCLA
4. Maryland


Lexington:
1. Louisville
2. Baylor
3. Tennessee
4. Ohio State


Spokane:
1. Notre Dame
2. Oregon
3. Missouri
4. Georgia
 

If the Gophers win 5 more games in a row (in other words win the Big Ten tournament), any chance Minnesota could bump Maryland from the Top 16? Let’s find some additional incentives for them to take the championship.
 

If the Gophers win 5 more games in a row (in other words win the Big Ten tournament), any chance Minnesota could bump Maryland from the Top 16? Let’s find some additional incentives for them to take the championship.

I assume they would replace Maryland in the top 16 if winning the B1G Tournament meant defeating Maryland for a second time. Hosting the first round at Williams would be a crazy twist to this season.
 

I assume they would replace Maryland in the top 16 if winning the B1G Tournament meant defeating Maryland for a second time. Hosting the first round at Williams would be a crazy twist to this season.

Plus it would probably mean they beat OSU, too.
 

Charlie still has the Gophers as a 10 seed going up against Green Bay in the Albany (UConn) region.
Green Bay is arguably the best defensive club in the nation. I’m not sure they match up too well with them.

Gophers need to strive for a higher seed, hopefully 7 or better.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Minnesota

The Golden Gophers have a little more cushion and saved themselves from a terrible loss with a comeback against Illinois on Saturday. Minnesota, the Big Ten's No. 4 seed, is set to meet fifth-seeded Iowa in the quarterfinals if the Hawkeyes advance as expected. If Minnesota beats Iowa, a bid should be secure.
 

Charlie still has the Gophers as a 10 seed going up against Green Bay in the Albany (UConn) region.
Green Bay is arguably the best defensive club in the nation. I’m not sure they match up too well with them.

Gophers need to strive for a higher seed, hopefully 7 or better.

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Creme has 7 B1G teams in:

4 OSU
5 Maryland
6 Iowa
8 Michigan
10 Minnesota
11 Rutgers
11 Purdue


Yes Creme still shows Rutgers in (If they lose to Purdue I assume they're toast). The Scarlet Knights three best wins were over NC State, Princeton and Virginia a long time ago. And they also topped Michigan and Minnesota. For Rutgers to get in, the Michigan and Minnesota wins have to carry a lot of weight.

And he still projects Nebraska out. The Husker's two best wins were over Iowa. Their only other top 50 RPI wins were over Rutgers and Minnesota. Nebraska remains on thin ice.

More important he's projecting the Summitt League as a one bid league. He has South Dakota State out because one of their two big wins was against Oklahoma whom he now has out.

He has the Mid-American as a two bidder.

To state the obvious; for Minnesota, beating Maryland and Michigan provided separation. Now we hope for no big surprises in conference tournaments.
 

I agree that Rutgers should be toast if they lose first round game to Purdue. I've seen Nebraska's last four games and, in my opinion , they belong in the NCAA despite RPI and SOS. I'm guessing that Nebraska set up a weak non-conference schedule because they underestimated that they would be as good as they are this year. The Gophers, on the other hand, don't have much of an excuse for their SOS. I'm glad to see that the Gophers are still "in" according to Creme. One good thing about being the four seed instead of the five is that the Gophers avoid any opportunity for a bad loss to either Wiscy or Northwestern. A loss to either of those teams and the Gophers might have been toast.
 

http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php

Sagarin Ratings through Monday 26 February with the Gophers at #32.

1 Connecticut = 114.65
2 Baylor = 107.28
3 Mississippi St. = 103.50
4 Notre Dame = 101.20
5 Louisville = 99.84
6 Oregon = 97.78
7 Texas = 97.47
8 UCLA = 95.09
9 Florida St. = 94.23
10 Tennessee = 93.08
11 Ohio St. = 92.85
12 Oregon St. = 92.22
13 South Carolina = 92.13
14 Maryland = 91.10
15 Green Bay = 90.48
16 Stanford = 89.94
17 Duke = 89.45
18 South Florida = 89.26
19 Arizona St. = 89.07
20 Oklahoma St. = 88.34
21 Texas A&M = 88.06
22 Marquette = 88.01
23 Oklahoma = 87.75
24 Michigan = 87.61
25 DePaul = 87.52
26 N.C. State = 87.17
27 Iowa = 86.89
28 Southern Cal = 86.85
29 West Virginia = 86.72
30 Georgia = 86.29
31 Missouri = 86.27
32 Minnesota = 85.23
33 South Dakota St. = 85.12
34 Michigan St. = 84.91
35 Georgia Tech = 84.49
36 Utah = 84.45
37 California = 84.16
38 Miami-FL = 83.95
39 Syracuse = 83.72
40 Villanova = 83.4
 


Man, the Gophers have beaten those Top 4 Big Ten teams in 4 out of 6 games, and they still only get a #9 seed? What have they gotta do?
 

A few thoughts. Gophers can certainly increase their NCAA seeding by a spot or two with a win over OSU. Michigan a higher seed than the Gophers? Not in my opinion. Wolverines have not been playing well for the past month or so. I hope that Nebraska makes the NCAA tourney despite their RPI and SOS. Their regular season BIG record and a win in the tourney vs. Michigan should get them an invite to the tourney. If not, I would ask why we even play the BIG schedule, if one of your top 4 teams in both the regular season and the conference tourney doesn't get an invite. And I know that Rutgers had some nice wins, but almost all of them were earlier in the year and they've finished poorly, including losses to Northwestern. IMO, they are the real BIG bubble team.
 



http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php

Sagarin's ratings through Saturday's games:

11 Ohio State
13 Maryland
22 Michigan
29 Iowa
32 Minnesota
35 Michigan State
43 Rutgers
49 Nebraska
56 Purdue
57 Indiana


AND NCAA RPI through Saturday's games (Rutgers, Michigan and Minnesota are pretty much lumped together while Nebraska is adrift). RPI and Sagarin differ in assessing Michigan State; although pondering such will be short lived.

6 Ohio State
16 Maryland
21 Iowa
38 Rutgers
39 Michigan
40 Minnesota

55 Indiana
59 Nebraska
61 Purdue
65 Michigan State
 

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Creme's bracketology through Sunday's games had little change for the B1G:

The ins remained the same:

3 Ohio State
5 Maryland
6 Iowa
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10 Rutgers

The last four in shuffled Creighton up:

Minnesota
Creighton
Rutgers
Southern Cal

The first four out remained untouched:

Nebraska
South Dakota State
West Virginia
Purdue


Creighton (B1G East vs. Marquette) and South Dakota State (Summit vs. Western Illinois) play semi-finals today.
 

It'll be South Dakota vs South Dakota St in the Summit finals, and that's a potential bracket-buster. South Dakota won both of their previous meetings. They probably need to win the auto-bid to get into the NCAA tournament, because of their RPI, but South Dakota State might get in, even if they lose to South Dakota a third time, with a 31 RPI (Creme has them not getting in, which seems inconsistent, unless I'm confusing my South Dakotas, which I have been known to do).
 




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