2018-2019 Expectations

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RickDornsby

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I’ll probably get ripped here since this current season isn’t over, but let’s just say that this season ends with an NIT bid with Lynch never coming back and Coffey being out or injured for most of it.

There was some discussion in another thread of next year’s team maybe being projected to be better. My concern is the loss of Lynch takes us out of being a good/elite defense. Washington will also have to improve a ton to turn it over as little as Mason does while also shooting a lot of 3s at a very good clip.

Obviously a lot of unknowns with the contributions from freshmen, Curry, and maybe a grad transfer. What do we think?
 

18-19:

PG: IW/Grad transfer
SG: McBrayer/Kaleshuer/Harris
SF: Coffey/Hurt/Fitzgerald
PF: Murphy/Curry/Thomas
C: Oturu/Stockman/Curry

Big change in depth for the Front Court if they all stay healthy and recovered. Back court loses the leader of the offense in Mason. 2 months ago, IW looked like he could fill the void. Now, that looks like it would be a polly-anna viewpoint.
SF depth is an issue as well unless McBrayer can play there. I would be very concerned about PG and SF next season. Definitely need a PG grad transfer!
 

I for one am optimistic about next year's team but I would not project it to be better than what this year's team could have been.
I think that the potential upside for next year's team is the same as was the expectation for this year's team.

If I were Pitino I'd be doing the following:

1. Look for a combo guard in the 6-2 to 6-3 range who can score and play 10 minutes at the point. Is there a late bloomer coming out of HS that fits that description that we can land? I hope so.

2. Play Washington and Harris more to develop them and see what we have.

A lot hinges on just how good Oturo is. If he is good on defense, shot blocking and rebounding then we may not miss much on Lynch. Washington is not going to be all of what Mason is by next year but everyone can improve. Murphy can add better shooting to his already great play. Coffey can be more assertive for longer stretches. McBrayer may become a very, very good player. Kalshauer may be a missing link as well as a shooter. Curry is another high potential guy.

This is still going to be a fairly experienced team with two all conference level players in Coffey and Murphy and much better depth.
 

Managing the roster:
We need another point guard added to the roster who can play.
Do we cut the cord with Fitzgerald and use the scholarship on someone who at least has greater potential if not immediate impact? Finding someone to only replace Fitzgerald's production would seem pretty simple? If we are going to be better we need to find someone more productive. Our staff is capable of doing that. Will we? Or does Fitzgerald somehow demonstrate greater ability in the next two months to invite him back? It seems easy to see he could get more playing time at a lower level than he'll get here if we have more healthy bodies next year.
 

I think next year we'll be up to 7 rivals top 150 recruits on our team. IW, McBrayer, Coffey, Murphy, Curry, Orturu, Omersa. If IW can play under control I think we'll be a NCAA team and we might surprise a few people. The team will have some talent if they can put it together.
 


I would say that Curry is one of the keys to the season. If he comes back healthy, he's in the starting lineup. The question is whether they can get by with Curry at Center. (I'm old-fashioned - I hate saying "at the 5"). But IF Curry is healthy, he's starting, with Oturu and Stockman coming off the bench for a decent 3-player rotation at Center.

On the other hand, if Curry is not healthy - OR if they want him at power forward, that creates some interesting questions. Does Oturu start at C as a true FR? Is Stockman good enough to start - or at least play heavy minutes? How does the coaching staff juggle playing time for Murphy and Curry at PF? Can Coffey play SG if needed? Can Washington handle the starting PG role? Does Harris get out of the doghouse and play more at SG?

Yes - you can construct a scenario where the Gophs have a legitimate 9 or 10-deep team. But, if the FR aren't ready to jump in right away, or if Washington isn't ready to be the starting guard, then it could get pretty iffy in a hurry.
 

60's Guy said:
Managing the roster:
We need another point guard added to the roster who can play.
Do we cut the cord with Fitzgerald and use the scholarship on someone who at least has greater potential if not immediate impact? Finding someone to only replace Fitzgerald's production would seem pretty simple? If we are going to be better we need to find someone more productive. Our staff is capable of doing that. Will we? Or does Fitzgerald somehow demonstrate greater ability in the next two months to invite him back? It seems easy to see he could get more playing time at a lower level than he'll get here if we have more healthy bodies next year.
Click to expand...

I have been wondering this, but I think Fitzgerald is going to be done after this year. I believe he was granted a medical hardship waiver for a 6th year of eligibility, but I see him listed as a RS SR on the roster when I thought he would technically be a RS JR if the medical RS is applied. I believe the mens basketball twitter account has even referred to Fitzgerald as a RS SR.

If we do indeed have 2 openings in the spring, I would like to see one be a grad transfer wing player whether it be SG or SF. I wouldn't mind bringing in a freshman point guard as well to round out the available scholarships, but we'll see what happens.
 

We absolutely need to add a point guard before next season.
I see Curry as our starting center next year and if he can be good with Orturu filling in behind him, this team can by really good. Probably not as good as our ceiling was this year but good nonetheless

I’d almost rather keep Fitz if it means we take another flyer on someone who isn’t gonna be any good for 2 years. If we let Fitz play another year then at least we can hopefully bring in a good freshmen prospect.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
I would say that Curry is one of the keys to the season. If he comes back healthy, he's in the starting lineup. The question is whether they can get by with Curry at Center. (I'm old-fashioned - I hate saying "at the 5"). But IF Curry is healthy, he's starting, with Oturu and Stockman coming off the bench for a decent 3-player rotation at Center.

On the other hand, if Curry is not healthy - OR if they want him at power forward, that creates some interesting questions. Does Oturu start at C as a true FR? Is Stockman good enough to start - or at least play heavy minutes? How does the coaching staff juggle playing time for Murphy and Curry at PF? Can Coffey play SG if needed? Can Washington handle the starting PG role? Does Harris get out of the doghouse and play more at SG?

Yes - you can construct a scenario where the Gophs have a legitimate 9 or 10-deep team. But, if the FR aren't ready to jump in right away, or if Washington isn't ready to be the starting guard, then it could get pretty iffy in a hurry.
Click to expand...

Curry is the perfect compliment to Murphy. Murph the bruising rebounder who scores mainly from 5 feet in coupled with Curry a guy who will be able to hit 10-15 foot shots. But against the big centers we need Oturo to defend for 20 minutes.
 



bga1 said:
If I were Pitino I'd be doing the following:

1. Look for a combo guard in the 6-2 to 6-3 range who can score and play 10 minutes at the point. Is there a late bloomer coming out of HS that fits that description that we can land? I hope so.

2. Play Washington and Harris more to develop them and see what we have.

A lot hinges on just how good Oturo is. If he is good on defense, shot blocking and rebounding then we may not miss much on Lynch. Washington is not going to be all of what Mason is by next year but everyone can improve. Murphy can add better shooting to his already great play. Coffey can be more assertive for longer stretches. McBrayer may become a very, very good player. Kalshauer may be a missing link as well as a shooter. Curry is another high potential guy.
Click to expand...

#1- Uh, you mean Gabe Kalscheur? He fits that description pretty well.

Have you seen Oturu play? He is an absolute monster on D. More athletic than Lynch. Gets up very quickly, but doesn't block with both hands as well. Omersa also can guard the #3 or #4 well, though I doubt he'll play much next year.

I would very much love to not see Washington starting at point next year; he looks far from ready at this point. The physical skills are there but everything about running the offense and making decisions has a ways to go still.
 

dex8425 said:
#1- Uh, you mean Gabe Kalscheur? He fits that description pretty well.

Have you seen Oturu play? He is an absolute monster on D. More athletic than Lynch. Gets up very quickly, but doesn't block with both hands as well. Omersa also can guard the #3 or #4 well, though I doubt he'll play much next year.

I would very much love to not see Washington starting at point next year; he looks far from ready at this point. The physical skills are there but everything about running the offense and making decisions has a ways to go still.
Click to expand...

Can Gabe play some point guard? I hadn't heard that.
 

mnsportsgeek said:
We absolutely need to add a point guard before next season.
I see Curry as our starting center next year and if he can be good with Orturu filling in behind him, this team can by really good. Probably not as good as our ceiling was this year but good nonetheless

I’d almost rather keep Fitz if it means we take another flyer on someone who isn’t gonna be any good for 2 years. If we let Fitz play another year then at least we can hopefully bring in a good freshmen prospect.
Click to expand...

That's a good take. I agree with most everything you have said. I do think that Curry could be out of the starting lineup and rotating at both the 4 and the 5 with Orturu starting. Murphy needs some rest every now and then so having a guy that has some skill and length would help. McBrayer showed the other night that he can be a baller and he is a good enough shooter to take over like Mason can do (although in a different way). I liked what I saw there! Need IW to settle down and play with the system...he has so much potential. I think Gabe is going to surprise next year. Another point guard is very critical as you said. Any grad transfers want sure minutes? It's here for you!
 

Expectations lower next year than this year. Based on what it looks like, more likely to meet expectations next year.
 



Ok, where do you think this team goes next year? We've had 2 games post missing 2 starters in Lynch, Coffey. McBreyer seems to be struggling with his leg. We all knew all season the loss of Curry was doing. I don't see Murphy leaving if his play continues as is...I think it shows that he is human. So let's say he's back. We all know how guard play is big for next year and that we need some youngsters to make plays right away.

Can the mob be ok with giving Pitino more time? I say yes because he has been recruiting fairly well, had a ice season last year and was primed for a good season prior to all of...well you know.

I think a .500 team in the BiG would be the ceiling for next year if Curry comes back healthy and the youngsters end up being as good as advertised. That means a possibility of the NCAA otherwise the NIT. Otherwise an overall .500 record counting the BiG well mean a lot of ups and downs next year. I think if we can get another solid class and some of these guys pan out we might not have to endure much more of this up and down roller coaster we have all been on.
 

dex8425 said:
#1- Uh, you mean Gabe Kalscheur? He fits that description pretty well.

Have you seen Oturu play? He is an absolute monster on D. More athletic than Lynch. Gets up very quickly, but doesn't block with both hands as well. Omersa also can guard the #3 or #4 well, though I doubt he'll play much next year.

I would very much love to not see Washington starting at point next year; he looks far from ready at this point. The physical skills are there but everything about running the offense and making decisions has a ways to go still.
Click to expand...

Ahhh no Kalscheur does not fit that description, if he is playing PG you are in big trouble. Bottom line is they have to get another recruit that can play PG.
 

I've been a Pitino defender the whole time he's been here. We've had a lot of bad luck this year and that's not all on Pitino. Tubby had similar bad luck with injuries, suspensions etc and we saw the same issues with high expectations dashed to a lack of depth. This year's depth should be better than what it is.

Leading up to next year, which will be Pitino's 6th year here. He needs to not only make the NCAA tournament, but also win a game or 2. Tubby was fired after 6 seasons even after winning his first NCAA tournament game, which was still the right move. But he also had a higher winning percentage over that time than Pitino currently does.

If after 6 years Pitino ends with fewer NCAA tournament wins, and a lower winning percentage than Tubby, he didn't get it done and it's time to move in a different direction. 6 years is more than enough time in basketball. The only way I wouldn't pull the plug if they struggle next year is if he gets a commitment form Hurt. Then you have to give him one more year.
 

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