Field of 68 Projection (January 1, 2018)

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SelectionSunday

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Happy New Year, GHers! This time we'll list the Field of 68 in order of current RPI.

The Gophers (#53) somehow need to get that RPI in the 30s heading into the Big Ten Tournament. I think 11-7 is the number that safely lands them in March Madness, without needing any additional wins in New York City. That starts with beating Illinois and Indiana at Williams Arena this week.

FIELD OF 68 (New Year's Style)
#1 Duke (at-large)
#2 Xavier (Big East automatic)
#3 Oklahoma (Big Xii automatic)
#4 Arkansas (SEC automatic)
#5 North Carolina (ACC automatic)
#6 Arizona State (at-large)
#7 Seton Hall (at-large)
#8 Villanova (at-large)
#9 Texas A&M (at-large)
#10 TCU (at-large)
#11 Syracuse (at-large)
#12 Tennessee (at-large)
#13 Purdue (B1G automatic)
#14 Virginia (at-large)
#15 Clemson (at-large)
#16 Kansas (at-large)
#17 Arizona (at-large)
#18 Kentucky (at-large)
#19 Wichita State (at-large)
#20 Butler (at-large)
#21 Nevada (Mountain West automatic)
#22 Miami (at-large)
#23 Rhode Island (Atlantic 10 automatic)
#24 Missouri (at-large)
#25 Boise State (at-large)
#26 West Virginia (at-large)
#27 Michigan State (at-large)
#28 Saint Bonaventure (at-large)
#29 Auburn (at-large)
#30 Alabama (at-large)
#31 Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun automatic)
#34 Utah (Pac 12 automatic)
#36 Florida State (at-large)
#37 Texas Tech (at-large)
#38 New Mexico State (WAC automatic)
#40 USC (at-large)
#41 UCLA (at-large)
#42 Buffalo (MAC automatic)
#43 Saint Mary's (WCC automatic)
#45 UCSB (Big West automatic)
#46 Houston (American automatic)
#49 Michigan (at-large)
#51 Creighton (at-large)
#52 Washington (at-large)
#53 GOPHERS (at-large)
#54 Cincinnati (at-large)
#58 Georgia (at-large)
#59 Texas (at-large)
#60 SMU (at-large)
#62 Missouri State (Missouri Valley automatic)
#63 William & Mary (Colonial automatic)
#68 Western Kentucky (Conference USA automatic)
#69 Belmont (Ohio Valley automatic)
#70 Vermont (America East automatic)
#73 Gonzaga (at-large)
#80 Furman (Southern automatic)
#83 Louisiana (Sun Belt automatic)
#89 Radford (Big South automatic)
#92 South Dakota (Summit automatic)
#109 Bucknell (Patriot automatic)
#117 Northern Colorado (Big Sky automatic)
#130 Princeton (Ivy automatic)
#146 Wright State (Horizon automatic)
#148 Robert Morris (Northeast automatic)
#166 Prairie View A&M (SWAC automatic)
#180 Southeastern Louisiana (Southland automatic)
#184 North Carolina A&T (MEAC automatic)
#194 Canisius (MAAC automatic)

Last 4 In
#29 Auburn
#52 Washington
#54 Cincinnati
#58 Georgia

First 4 Out
#32 Temple
#50 Ohio State
#71 Notre Dame
#87 Florida

Next 8
#33 Middle Tennessee
#35 Saint John's
#44 Providence
#56 UCF
#57 Maryland
#61 Iowa State
#64 Marquette
#79 Virginia Tech

Gophers vs. The Field (1-2)
vs. Alabama (W)
Miami (L)
@ Arkansas (L)
 

You're projecting only 4 B1G teams in the tourney? We've been sending 6-7 teams every year for quite some time.

(Also, you have Xavier on your list twice. They're good but not that good.)
 

strommen said:
You're projecting only 4 B1G teams in the tourney? We've been sending 6-7 teams every year for quite some time.

(Also, you have Xavier on your list twice. They're good but not that good.)
Click to expand...

Yes, at this point, only 4 from B1G.

Thanks. I'll fix that! #8 should be Villanova.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Yes, at this point, only 4 from B1G.

Thanks. I'll fix that! #8 should be Villanova.
Click to expand...

The team's RPI will improve as long as they have a winning record in the conference.

I doubt there will be only 4 Big Ten teams in the tournament (maybe only 5 though). When was the last time only 4 Big Ten teams made the tournament? You always seem to treat this decision like it's made by a computer using RPI strictly as the criteria but this decision is made by individuals who are influenced by tradition, preferences, politics, and money.
 



cjbfbp said:
The team's RPI will improve as long as they have a winning record in the conference.

I doubt there will be only 4 Big Ten teams in the tournament (maybe only 5 though). When was the last time only 4 Big Ten teams made the tournament? You always seem to treat this decision like it's made by a computer using RPI strictly as the criteria but this decision is made by individuals who are influenced by tradition, preferences, politics, and money.
Click to expand...

RPI is the reference point I use here. It is nowhere close to being the only thing I look at. Earlier this season I was using KenPom as a reference point. And thanks, I'm very cognizant of how the Selection Committee operates.

Not sure about 4 bids, but last time Big 10 got less than 6 was 2010 (5).
 


I'd agree with 5.5. Mich. State, Purdue, Michigan and MN should all be locks if they take care of business. OSU and Maryland will be bubble teams most likely. Possible NW could still get there as well depending on the injury from the other day. But all 3 making it seems unlikely.
 

SelectionSunday said:
RPI is the reference point I use here. It is nowhere close to being the only thing I look at. Earlier this season I was using KenPom as a reference point. And thanks, I'm very cognizant of how the Selection Committee operates.

Not sure about 4 bids, but last time Big 10 got less than 6 was 2010 (5).
Click to expand...

Appreciate you doing this. Using Kenpom before 12/15 is worthless as it contained data from last year until there was enough for this year. I see 5 big 10 teams despite how many poor teams there are in spots after 5. Yes, UW is pretty bad , i was wrong so far. Yet they are now 2-1. I have never seen the conference where racking up a lot of wins has been relatively easy. You are likely to see 4 teams with 12 or more wins.
 



Say we go 9-9 (so 20-11 overall) with no major B10 wins (Purdue/MSU) and get bounced in the B10 tournament relatively early.

If Providence and Alabama aren’t tournament teams, either...are we out?
 

RickDornsby said:
Say we go 9-9 (so 20-11 overall) with no major B10 wins (Purdue/MSU) and get bounced in the B10 tournament relatively early.

If Providence and Alabama aren’t tournament teams, either...are we out?
Click to expand...

Even if Providence and Alabama are tournament teams, I don’t think 20-21 wins gets us in this year. Not really even close.
 

If we go 9-9 in big it will be extremely disappointing! I say 12-6 or 13-5 if we get our head out of you know where and stay injury free.
 

RickDornsby said:
Say we go 9-9 (so 20-11 overall) with no major B10 wins (Purdue/MSU) and get bounced in the B10 tournament relatively early.

If Providence and Alabama aren’t tournament teams, either...are we out?
Click to expand...

I don't think we are really even a bubble team with that resume unless we are talking NIT bubble
 



bizzle22 said:
I don't think we are really even a bubble team with that resume unless we are talking NIT bubble
Click to expand...

This team is not going 9-9. I have zero doubt about getting at least 12 wins. The conference is as bad as i have seen in 50 years.
 

builtbadgers said:
This team is not going 9-9. I have zero doubt about getting at least 12 wins. The conference is as bad as i have seen in 50 years.
Click to expand...

Oh I agree. Didn't mean to imply that I thought we would. Just meant that if that scenario were to play out we don't even need to think about going to the dance. I think we will get to 12-14 conference wins and easily make the tourney.
 


I think we win 11 but Sagarin says 9 or 10. That’s why I was painting the 9-9 scenario. I don’t think that factors in the Maryland/NW injuries, though.
 

Some guy said:
Has a 20 win big ten team ever missed the NIT?
Click to expand...

Northwestern a couple years ago comes to mind. And that was in a pretty good year for the B1G.

There are examples from other power conferences as well, especially when those conferences were having down years.
 

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