Gophers Among Joe Lunardi's "Last 4 In"

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4 Big Ten teams

dingo said:
Only 4 Big Ten teams?
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That's very possible this year. I'd still bet on 5.

But there's only 2 shoo-ins, barring major meltdowns in conference play. ... Sparty and Purdue.
 

I didn't realize Purdue was in so much better shape than us. I guess that loss to Tennessee isn't looking nearly as bad as it seemed at the time it happened, the floundering Arizona team they beat has gotten back on track, and Louisville, Butler, and Maryland are solid wins too, enough to overcome the loss to Western Kentucky apparently.. I see Alabama is first four out and Providence is nowhere to be seen. I guess for us it's a case of a bad loss to Nebraska and our two decent wins looking more pedestrian than we'd thought, and there won't be many opportunities for good wins in conference. Seems likely we could exceed last year's conference record and get a worse NCAA tournament seed unless we can manage maybe 3-2 against Michigan State, Purdue, @Purdue, @Maryland, and @Michigan.
 

As long as we take care of business in the B10, we'll be fine.
 


Maryland's Justin Jackson out for the season with shoulder injury.
 

WriterGoph said:
As long as we take care of business in the B10, we'll be fine.
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This. Avoid the bad losses. Alabama is expext to be right on the bubble at least and I’d expect providence to battle back as well.
 

I really don't understand how one bad loss (Nebraska) can drop us so far.

The Miami loss obviously did very little to affect perception and I don't think the Arkansas loss is a bad loss at all. They were always projected to be a top four seed and "Final Four good" but one loss to a team that is better than the teams Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, etc lost to and a loss vs a very good team on the road and suddenly they're a bubble team?

I don't buy it. Just last week they were projected to be in the 8/9 game and they haven't lost since.
 

Lunardi has a lot of teams ahead of the Gophers that I'd take the Gophers over each and every day. Gophers resume isn't bad at all I would have them around a 7 seed right now. Still think both Providence and Alabama will be good resume wins and neither were on a home court. Just pile up wins and things will be fine.
 



Providence is about to lock up a really nice road win at 10-2 St. John's right now. :)
 

As long as we don't lose too many games we shouldn't in B1G play we will be fine. Would probably help quite a bit if we can win at least one of the Michigan St/Purdue games.

The reality is that we didn't play a very strong nonconf slate in a year when the B1G looks to be pretty down. But that also means we should do pretty well in conference play so there is no need for anyone to panic.
 

Gophers are just fine but Providence beating St. Johns means nothing. St. Johns has done nothing.
 

builtbadgers said:
Gophers are just fine but Providence beating St. Johns means nothing. St. Johns has done nothing.
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Winning road games in conference against teams with better records than you is always good, right?

Actually, your point is total sh*t because, in fact, EVERY time Providence wins a game this season, it's a good thing for the Gophers.
 



TeamRankings had us at 34% tournament odds today. Probably goes up with that Providence win a bit. I wonder if Lunardi is using some projections like that to seed.

I think we’re better than all of those ratings, but the truth is that right now we have one, maybe two decent win and are projected to win about 20 games. Don’t lose bad ones and we’re in or swing an upset and we’re in. But there are going to be a lot of 19/20 win teams with a similar amount of big wins if that’s where we land.
 

LongLiveMilesTarver said:
I really don't understand how one bad loss (Nebraska) can drop us so far.

The Miami loss obviously did very little to affect perception and I don't think the Arkansas loss is a bad loss at all. They were always projected to be a top four seed and "Final Four good" but one loss to a team that is better than the teams Duke, UNC, Notre Dame, etc lost to and a loss vs a very good team on the road and suddenly they're a bubble team?

I don't buy it. Just last week they were projected to be in the 8/9 game and they haven't lost since.
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This. There's been very few notable games the last two weeks, we haven't lost and somehow we dropped 12-16 spots.
 

howeda7 said:
This. There's been very few notable games the last two weeks, we haven't lost and somehow we dropped 12-16 spots.
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Resumes fluctuate, even when there aren't a lot of games. Take Rutgers, for example, and its win over Seton Hall followed by back to back home losses to Stony Brook & Hartford.

I SMH when people say they want other Big 10 teams to lose during non-conference play. The better the conference does, the better your conference wins get in January, February and March, and vice versa, the worse your losses are. Rutgers losing to a pair of middlin' to bad America East opponents hurts everyone who plays them. This year a perfect example of what it means when a conference has poor non-conference results. There just won't be many top-shelf wins to be had in Big 10 play, but plenty of opportunities for "bad losses".
 

SelectionSunday said:
Resumes fluctuate, even when there aren't a lot of games. Take Rutgers, for example, and its win over Seton Hall followed by back to back home losses to Stony Brook & Hartford.

I SMH when people say they want other Big 10 teams to lose during non-conference play. The better the conference does, the better your conference wins get in January, February and March, and vice versa, the worse your losses are. Rutgers losing to a pair of middlin' to bad America East opponents hurts everyone who plays them. This year a perfect example of what it means when a conference has poor non-conference results. There just won't be many top-shelf wins to be had in Big 10 play, but plenty of opportunities for "bad losses".
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Just an avid basketball fan who lives and dies with the Gophers, and I really appreciate what you add to GH. Pretty sure I'm not the only one whom you've educated about tournament selection. Thanks.
 

Mulligan said:
Just an avid basketball fan who lives and dies with the Gophers, and I really appreciate what you add to GH. Pretty sure I'm not the only one whom you've educated about tournament selection. Thanks.
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I appreciate that. Thanks.
 

Mulligan said:
Just an avid basketball fan who lives and dies with the Gophers, and I really appreciate what you add to GH. Pretty sure I'm not the only one whom you've educated about tournament selection. Thanks.
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Well said Mulligan. Selection Sunday is a rock star on the gopher hole
 

SelectionSunday said:
Resumes fluctuate, even when there aren't a lot of games. Take Rutgers, for example, and its win over Seton Hall followed by back to back home losses to Stony Brook & Hartford.

I SMH when people say they want other Big 10 teams to lose during non-conference play. The better the conference does, the better your conference wins get in January, February and March, and vice versa, the worse your losses are. Rutgers losing to a pair of middlin' to bad America East opponents hurts everyone who plays them. This year a perfect example of what it means when a conference has poor non-conference results. There just won't be many top-shelf wins to be had in Big 10 play, but plenty of opportunities for "bad losses".
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The bad losses really make a difference on Big 10 opponents that are played twice (or 3 times counting BTT). The Gophers twofers are Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern & Purdue.

This is my bid for a "stating the obvious" award.
 

Ope3 said:
The bad losses really make a difference on Big 10 opponents that are played twice (or 3 times counting BTT). The Gophers twofers are Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern & Purdue.

This is my bid for a "stating the obvious" award.
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Yep. There are a lot of opportunities for "bad losses" in the Gophers' 5 2-plays, potentially everyone except Purdue. And we already lost @ Nebraska.

Can't stress enough how important the 2 Purdue games + the Michigan State home game are for the Gophers' NCAA Tournament hopes. Win 2 of those 3 and I like their chances barring a complete meltdown in the other 13 games. And stealing one @ Maryland and/or @ Michigan would be really helpful, too.
 

Need the B10 to win the rest of these non con games. Which should be a straightforward ask but well seee. The conference has not looked great
 

upnorthkid said:
Need the B10 to win the rest of these non con games. Which should be a straightforward ask but well seee. The conference has not looked great
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This is all that is left from the Big 10 website:

Dec. 29, 2017 Cleveland State at Michigan State East Lansing, MI 6:00 pm BTN
Youngstown State at Indiana Bloomington, IN 8:00 pm BTN
Northern Illinois at Iowa Iowa City, IA 8:00 pm BTN Plus
UMBC at Maryland College Park, MD 8:00 pm FS1
Stetson at Nebraska Lincoln, NE 8:00 pm BTN Plus
Dec. 30, 2017 Brown at Northwestern Evanston, IL 12:00 pm FS1
Miami University at Ohio State Columbus, OH 12:00 pm ESPNU
Coppin State at Penn State University Park, PA 1:00 pm BTN Plus
Harvard University at Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 2:00 pm BTN
Grand Canyon at Illinois Champaign, IL 4:00 pm BTN Plus
UMass Lowell at Wisconsin Madison, WI 4:00 pm BTN
Jacksonville at Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 6:00 pm BTN
Lipscomb at Purdue West Lafayette, IN 8:00 pm BTN
Dec. 31, 2017 Savannah State at Michigan State East Lansing, MI 12:00 pm BTN
 

Ope3 said:
This is all that is left from the Big 10 website:

Dec. 29, 2017 Cleveland State at Michigan State East Lansing, MI 6:00 pm BTN
Youngstown State at Indiana Bloomington, IN 8:00 pm BTN
Northern Illinois at Iowa Iowa City, IA 8:00 pm BTN Plus
UMBC at Maryland College Park, MD 8:00 pm FS1
Stetson at Nebraska Lincoln, NE 8:00 pm BTN Plus
Dec. 30, 2017 Brown at Northwestern Evanston, IL 12:00 pm FS1
Miami University at Ohio State Columbus, OH 12:00 pm ESPNU
Coppin State at Penn State University Park, PA 1:00 pm BTN Plus
Harvard University at Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 2:00 pm BTN
Grand Canyon at Illinois Champaign, IL 4:00 pm BTN Plus
UMass Lowell at Wisconsin Madison, WI 4:00 pm BTN
Jacksonville at Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 6:00 pm BTN
Lipscomb at Purdue West Lafayette, IN 8:00 pm BTN
Dec. 31, 2017 Savannah State at Michigan State East Lansing, MI 12:00 pm BTN
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Which is why any losses will only tank the conference further. No good wins left, only bad losses
 

Ope3 said:
This is all that is left from the Big 10 website:

Dec. 29, 2017 Cleveland State at Michigan State East Lansing, MI 6:00 pm BTN
Youngstown State at Indiana Bloomington, IN 8:00 pm BTN
Northern Illinois at Iowa Iowa City, IA 8:00 pm BTN Plus
UMBC at Maryland College Park, MD 8:00 pm FS1
Stetson at Nebraska Lincoln, NE 8:00 pm BTN Plus
Dec. 30, 2017 Brown at Northwestern Evanston, IL 12:00 pm FS1
Miami University at Ohio State Columbus, OH 12:00 pm ESPNU
Coppin State at Penn State University Park, PA 1:00 pm BTN Plus
Harvard University at Minnesota Minneapolis, MN 2:00 pm BTN
Grand Canyon at Illinois Champaign, IL 4:00 pm BTN Plus
UMass Lowell at Wisconsin Madison, WI 4:00 pm BTN
Jacksonville at Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 6:00 pm BTN
Lipscomb at Purdue West Lafayette, IN 8:00 pm BTN
Dec. 31, 2017 Savannah State at Michigan State East Lansing, MI 12:00 pm BTN
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Someone needs to tell the Big 10 that AllState Arena is in Rosemont, IL as Welsh-Ryan is being remodeled.
 

WriterGoph said:
Winning road games in conference against teams with better records than you is always good, right?

Actually, your point is total sh*t because, in fact, EVERY time Providence wins a game this season, it's a good thing for the Gophers.
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Damn the farther I read your post the more I agreed with you.
 

Ope3 said:
Someone needs to tell the Big 10 that AllState Arena is in Rosemont, IL as Welsh-Ryan is being remodeled.
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Just 3 miles down the interstate from the Big Ten offices. They must not get out and about Rosemont much.
 

Honestly seems about right at this point. As it stands now we have:

quadrant 1 wins: Alabama and Providence
quadrant 2 wins: NONE
quadrant 3 wins: Umass
quadrant 4 wins: USC Upstate, Niagara, Western Carolina, Alabama A&M, Rutgers, Drake, Oral Roberts, Florida Atlantic and Harvard

Being 2-3 against the top 2 quadrants isn't a good look right now.

Worst part is we only have, as it stands now, 6 more opportunities for quadrant 1 wins. I really think with Maryland losing Jackson for the season the B1G will get 4 teams with us fighting it out with Ohio State for the 4th bid. That neutral site game against them is really huge.
 

Gophers7633 said:
Honestly seems about right at this point. As it stands now we have:

quadrant 1 wins: Alabama and Providence
quadrant 2 wins: NONE
quadrant 3 wins: Umass
quadrant 4 wins: USC Upstate, Niagara, Western Carolina, Alabama A&M, Rutgers, Drake, Oral Roberts, Florida Atlantic and Harvard

Being 2-3 against the top 2 quadrants isn't a good look right now.

Worst part is we only have, as it stands now, 6 more opportunities for quadrant 1 wins. I really think with Maryland losing Jackson for the season the B1G will get 4 teams with us fighting it out with Ohio State for the 4th bid. That neutral site game against them is really huge.
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Why is our home game against them closer to them at a “neutral” court, again?
 

cncmin said:
Why is our home game against them closer to them at a “neutral” court, again?
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I think the reason we are doing that is dumb as well. Not having that be at home, could be what ultimately costs us a bid. But the good thing is if we do win it, it'll look better on our resume. It's still a winnable game.
 

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