All Things Dawson Garcia Recruitment Thread (Class of 2020): UPDATED: Gophers Offered

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Parcival said:
I think he picks Minnesota too but there's no way that a kid ranked lower by 50 spots will OFTEN have a better career. Sure it's a possibility but I'll take my chances with the 5 star recruit in Garcia every time over a 3-4 star.

And yes it is a loss if Garcia chooses Indiana. A huge loss actually. We'd be getting torched by our own hometown kid for several years after missing out on him.
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Dozens of examples in every class.
 

60's Guy said:
I’m not saying weather is paramount but when competing with California, Florida, Arizona...I’d guess it is a possible swing factor. Indiana, Illinois, New York, Ohio, Michigan etc sure seems like it would be a non factor to me too.
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On the Football side of recruiting, I recall two kids from Michigan in interviews back in 2015-16 say how cold Minnesota was when they were asked what they knew about us. I don't remember who they were but I remember one of them said this verbatim "All I know about Minnesota is it gets real cold there, real cold." I couldn't believe it came from a Detroit kid. Thats when i knew we had a real perception problem.
 

Block M said:
My hope is that the IU trip is simply due diligence and that he'll allow himself some deliberation time before making the decision to "stay home". A recruiting loss to a diminished IU program would not be good.
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Diminished in terms of the number of wins recently, perhaps. But in terms of program budget, facilities, fan/booster support, history/cachet ..... far from diminished.
 

I have no inside info, at all, but feeling good about this. He's going to go do his Indiana visit, and then commit to the Gophers. Its just weird that we havent heard anything about additional recruiting. I think Pitino went all in on Garcia. Pitino figures he'll get someone in the Spring if Garcia goes else where, but he only does that if he likes his chances.
 

builtbadgers said:
Dozens of examples in every class.
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It doesn’t matter if there are “dozens in every class”... the odds of us replacing Garcia with someone BETTER are nonexistent.

If Garcia goes to Indiana I’d love to talk to you about this in a couple years to see if you still think missing him “isn’t a loss”.

I thoroughly believe that Pitino is doing everything he can to sign this kid but Indiana will ultimately get the last word.
 
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MnplsGopher said:
Diminished in terms of the number of wins recently, perhaps. But in terms of program budget, facilities, fan/booster support, history/cachet ..... far from diminished.
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Diminished in terms of consistent high-level success over the past 20 years. Arguably the third or fourth best program in the state over that time (Purdue; Notre Dame; Butler).


Not questioning fan fervor or budget/facilities.
 

Parcival said:
It doesn’t matter if there are “dozens in every class”... the odds of us replacing Garcia with someone BETTER are nonexistent.

If Garcia goes to Indiana I’d love to talk to you about this in a couple years to see if you still think missing him “isn’t a loss”.

I thoroughly believe that Pitino is doing everything he can to sign this kid but Indiana will ultimately get the last word.
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Minnesota is local, and there are plenty of opportunities for in home visits and unofficials yet. Indiana might be his last official visit, but unless he commits on his Indiana visit, Minnesota will have the last word. That is, as long as Dawson is open to it. Hoping that this is the case.







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Parcival said:
It doesn’t matter if there are “dozens in every class”... the odds of us replacing Garcia with someone BETTER are nonexistent.

If Garcia goes to Indiana I’d love to talk to you about this in a couple years to see if you still think missing him “isn’t a loss”.

I thoroughly believe that Pitino is doing everything he can to sign this kid but Indiana will ultimately get the last word.
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Nonexistent. Difficult certainly but if you track all the kids in the last 10 years ranked between 25-35 and then track those between 75 and above you will be shocked at how many in the 1st group are passed and out performed by those in the second.
 

builtbadgers said:
Nonexistent. Difficult certainly but if you track all the kids in the last 10 years ranked between 25-35 and then track those between 75 and above you will be shocked at how many in the 1st group are passed and out performed by those in the second.
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The flaw in this logic is that you’re giving 10 players and comparing them them to the hundreds and hundreds that don’t happen to fall in those ranks. Of course many lower ranked guys will exceed expectations. It’s simple math. Lots of opportunities in the 35+ range... It’s akin to letting a friend pick the #1 ranked team at the beginning of the season and giving yourself the field.

I do, however, get the point you’re trying to make. Missing on a player doesn’t mean the sky is falling. If you can’t get him, find a guy you can develop. I like the direction Coach Pitino is taking the program regardless, but Garcia sure would look good in maroon and gold!


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builtbadgers said:
Nonexistent. Difficult certainly but if you track all the kids in the last 10 years ranked between 25-35 and then track those between 75 and above you will be shocked at how many in the 1st group are passed and out performed by those in the second.
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Well there are only so many kids that can be ranked at the top. Of course there are going to be some diamonds in the rough that end up way outperforming their ranking. Hundreds of kids come out each year. But to think that the Gophers will have one of those kids on our radar and land him....and/or Garcia will under-perform to the point that we will have gotten the better end of the deal is highly unlikely.
 

Don't sleep on Marquette. I believe that they're very much in it.
 

Arche Miller has done nothing at Indiana but underachieve. It must be a Miller trait. Red flag- a few articles talk about this year's Hoosier team having good chemistry. The old chemistry will be better ploy. Hoosier's are grasping for straws. Plus Sean is his brother gross.
 

Wojo has been to the tourney 2 years out of 5. Marquette had players leaving after last year. Marquette struggled down the stretch players playing selfish some say.

The old red flag again- chemistry.
 



Roland Brooks said:
Wojo has been to the tourney 2 years out of 5. Marquette had players leaving after last year. Marquette struggled down the stretch players playing selfish some say.

The old red flag again- chemistry.
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The hausers left because they weren’t running offense through Joey, and made the decision to leave when Howard came back. The offense is built around guard play. Not sure how that affects Dawson’s plans or development but I can’t imagine signing up for that after watching Howard chuck it from 40 feet without a pass.


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How likely is it that Garcia will be one and done? Clem Haskins used to eschew those players in favor of solid players who were more likely to stay around for a full four years of eligibility. He pointed to mid-major success in the NCAA tournament to prove the value of the team chemistry that can be developed if players play together for some time. Chemistry can sometimes overcome talent. No one would be happier if Garcia stays home than me, but from a long term perspective, a lesser recruit might have more long term value.
 

I find it a little odd how iffy people can be on getting one and done recruits despite the fact we never get them. No one ever seems to have the same issue with grad transfers though even though they’re almost the same thing, except a one and done freshman is probably going to be a better player and can represent your program in the NBA.

I am also kinda curious though if he’s considered to be good enough to leave after one year or not.
 
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I have no scouting credentials whatsoever, but don't feel he is one and done but likely on all freshman team. Not surprised if he leaves after 2 years, but would be after one. Never know how good he will be once he finishes this year's basketball season though!
 

Parcival said:
It doesn’t matter if there are “dozens in every class”... the odds of us replacing Garcia with someone BETTER are nonexistent.

If Garcia goes to Indiana I’d love to talk to you about this in a couple years to see if you still think missing him “isn’t a loss”.

I thoroughly believe that Pitino is doing everything he can to sign this kid but Indiana will ultimately get the last word.
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There have been dozens of 6th round picks who end up being better than 1st round picks, therefore 6th round picks have the same value as 1st round picks.
 

vagopher said:
How likely is it that Garcia will be one and done? Clem Haskins used to eschew those players in favor of solid players who were more likely to stay around for a full four years of eligibility. He pointed to mid-major success in the NCAA tournament to prove the value of the team chemistry that can be developed if players play together for some time. Chemistry can sometimes overcome talent. No one would be happier if Garcia stays home than me, but from a long term perspective, a lesser recruit might have more long term value.
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Clem Haskins was all over Chris Webber. One-and-done wasn't a thing in the early 90's. Clem would have happily taken Webber for 2 years. The blackout on contacting him for a month in October or November was devastating in Webber's recruitment.
 

Keyser Söze said:
There have been dozens of 6th round picks who end up being better than 1st round picks, therefore 6th round picks have the same value as 1st round picks.
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Anyone knows 1st rounders have more value than 6th rounders but when building teams with teenagers you best scout on how long they will stay and how they fit. Unless of course your going to out recruit the blue bloods and be that kind of program. I would rather find the Harris, Brogdon,Jerome , Josh Hart types. Do not take this to mean that i do not want Garcia because i do and i think he is a 3-4 year player . What it means is my sins database shows that is that a ton of great teams have won titles without top 30 talent.Also, several dozen players each year out perform so many of the top 30 kids. UVA,Butler, Nova and others have found players outside the top 75 that won in a big way. We did it with Gabe and Murph without the big winning. Fans are going to assume that we will suck without Garcia and others think we are going to the final 4 with him. The truth is it takes a crew of really good players, extreme work, great coaching to make it work. With what Dawson did with his game in 16 months is remarkable. The great fun will be seeing how much better he can get and how that translates to wins. Hope it is here, if not we may have someone already here that is better.
 

Keyser Söze said:
There have been dozens of 6th round picks who end up being better than 1st round picks, therefore 6th round picks have the same value as 1st round picks.
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Haha I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw Built's flawed logic. I see Garcia as a 2-3 year player depending on how he develops - Pitino could likely find a decent 4 year recruit in the spring if we don't land him but having that 5* 6'10" PF who can shoot and put the ball on the floor could take our team from good to great.

It's incredibly hard to predict how players will develop over their college career - it can be slightly more accurate than tossing darts but not by much. Either way, Garcia passes the eye test and would love to see him in maroon and gold.
 

Parcival said:
Haha I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw Built's flawed logic. I see Garcia as a 2-3 year player depending on how he develops - Pitino could likely find a decent 4 year recruit in the spring if we don't land him but having that 5* 6'10" PF who can shoot and put the ball on the floor could take our team from good to great.

It's incredibly hard to predict how players will develop over their college career - it can be slightly more accurate than tossing darts but not by much. Either way, Garcia passes the eye test and would love to see him in maroon and gold.
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How does Garcia compare to Nnaji, would have loved to have that kind of talent regardless of how many years it would end up being.
 

Nnaji and Garcia are totally different players I think, Dawson is much more dynamic and can play inside or out.
 

Parcival said:
Haha I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw Built's flawed logic. I see Garcia as a 2-3 year player depending on how he develops - Pitino could likely find a decent 4 year recruit in the spring if we don't land him but having that 5* 6'10" PF who can shoot and put the ball on the floor could take our team from good to great.

It's incredibly hard to predict how players will develop over their college career - it can be slightly more accurate than tossing darts but not by much. Either way, Garcia passes the eye test and would love to see him in maroon and gold.
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Yeah you never know for sure, but statistically, the higher the player is ranked, the better the odds of them being good, so it makes sense to hope for the highest ranked players. That logic seems to bother some people for reasons I'll never understand. Garcia would would make this class incredible.
 

Everyone wants the better players. The issue is who is doing the evaluating. Jay Wright evaluated that Hart and Jenkins were 5 star for his program. Bennett evaluated Brogdon, Harris, Hunter, Guy AND Jerome as 5 star. They find guys, like we did with Gabe and Murph who out perform their ranking. Look at the guys ranked from 25-35 over a decade and the majority are non memorable. I have huge hope that Garcia will perform really well and that he will come here. On paper that is a really good class, top 25.
 

builtbadgers said:
Everyone wants the better players. The issue is who is doing the evaluating. Jay Wright evaluated that Hart and Jenkins were 5 star for his program. Bennett evaluated Brogdon, Harris, Hunter, Guy AND Jerome as 5 star. They find guys, like we did with Gabe and Murph who out perform their ranking. Look at the guys ranked from 25-35 over a decade and the majority are non memorable. I have huge hope that Garcia will perform really well and that he will come here. On paper that is a really good class, top 25.
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We get it. Sometimes lower rated players outperform higher rated players and coaches can rate players differently than recruiting services. If Pitino thinks a player is underrated by recruiting services and wants to make that player a priority, great. We don't know how specific coaches rank players though. We only know how recruiting services rank them. So from a fans perspective, it makes sense to hope for the player that is rated highest by recruiting services since those players have the highest probability of being good.
 

builtbadgers said:
Everyone wants the better players. The issue is who is doing the evaluating. Jay Wright evaluated that Hart and Jenkins were 5 star for his program. Bennett evaluated Brogdon, Harris, Hunter, Guy AND Jerome as 5 star. They find guys, like we did with Gabe and Murph who out perform their ranking. Look at the guys ranked from 25-35 over a decade and the majority are non memorable. I have huge hope that Garcia will perform really well and that he will come here. On paper that is a really good class, top 25.
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As compared to 45-55? Or 55-65? Any swath of 10 recruits outside the top 10 are generally forgettable. 60 kids get drafted a year, only 10 per year are ever memorable past 5 years.

You’re literally saying nothing.
 

IU 247 saying it’s basically down to Marquette and IU. The analyst did a face to face interview with Dawson. Pretty disappointing. I was starting to get optimistic about Dawson but I think I’m going to write him off as another Reid Travis. Hopefully we find someone good in the spring for that 3rd spot. Getting Martice softens the blow of losing Dawson at least.


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MadtownGopher said:
IU 247 saying it’s basically down to Marquette and IU. The analyst did a face to face interview with Dawson. Pretty disappointing. I was starting to get optimistic about Dawson but I think I’m going to write him off as another Reid Travis. Hopefully we find someone good in the spring for that 3rd spot. Getting Martice softens the blow of losing Dawson at least.


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Why would IU 247 be trusted?

Do IU and Marquette have seniors at PF this season and promising Garcia the starting role in 20-21??
 

MadtownGopher said:
IU 247 saying it’s basically down to Marquette and IU. The analyst did a face to face interview with Dawson. Pretty disappointing. I was starting to get optimistic about Dawson but I think I’m going to write him off as another Reid Travis. Hopefully we find someone good in the spring for that 3rd spot. Getting Martice softens the blow of losing Dawson at least.


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Is one writer - who clearly has an IU slant - the definitive source here? Don't kids usually tell each of these writers what they want to hear? Am I missing some subtext here?
 

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