Sid: Gophers football coach P.J. Fleck sees positives in Year One troubles

was looking at Western Michigan pre-Fleck. Bill Cubit in 8 years had 1 .500 season and four winning seasons, with three losing seasons. 51-46 overall and played in 3 bowl games. his worst year was his last: 4-8 in the year before Fleck.

Fleck's 1-11 in his first year was the most losses in a single season in WMU history. Of course, in his 4th year, he set a record for most victories in a single season.

But, back to the point of 1st year coaches- Fleck's 1st year at WMU, his win total was -3 from the previous season. Fleck's 1st year at MN, his win total was -4 from the previous season.

Is that a coincidence, or is it part of some grand design? Prior to Fleck, WMU was a average program. Not great - not terrible. Prior to Fleck, MN under Kill was an average program. Not Great, not terrible.

is this part of Fleck's plan - tear down the program to rock bottom before building it back up? Only time will tell.

Referencing post #2 W-L records (thanks to Fan of Ray Williams for the good data), it's interesting that only 1 of 8 teams with a 2016 winning record improved with a new coach in 2017 (LSU) and 1 tied (Oklahoma). For 2015 to 2016, only 3 of 10 teams with a winning record improved (VaTech, USC, Miami) and 1 tied (BYU). I'm not sure what to take away from that, there are many factors at play, but it shows the difficulty in improving on a winning record in the 1st year after changing coaches. A small number of blue blood programs did it, and that's it.

Panthadad2 said:

Referencing post #2 W-L records (thanks to Fan of Ray Williams for the good data), it's interesting that only 1 of 8 teams with a 2016 winning record improved with a new coach in 2017 (LSU) and 1 tied (Oklahoma). For 2015 to 2016, only 3 of 10 teams with a winning record improved (VaTech, USC, Miami) and 1 tied (BYU). I'm not sure what to take away from that, there are many factors at play, but it shows the difficulty in improving on a winning record in the 1st year after changing coaches. A small number of blue blood programs did it, and that's it.

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Not sure I follow...how are you using the term winning record? Could you mean better record?

short ornery norwegian said:

was looking at Western Michigan pre-Fleck. Bill Cubit in 8 years had 1 .500 season and four winning seasons, with three losing seasons. 51-46 overall and played in 3 bowl games. his worst year was his last: 4-8 in the year before Fleck.

Fleck's 1-11 in his first year was the most losses in a single season in WMU history. Of course, in his 4th year, he set a record for most victories in a single season.

But, back to the point of 1st year coaches- Fleck's 1st year at WMU, his win total was -3 from the previous season. Fleck's 1st year at MN, his win total was -4 from the previous season.

Is that a coincidence, or is it part of some grand design? Prior to Fleck, WMU was a average program. Not great - not terrible. Prior to Fleck, MN under Kill was an average program. Not Great, not terrible.

is this part of Fleck's plan - tear down the program to rock bottom before building it back up? Only time will tell.

Click to expand...

One might call it tearing it down, I call it changing the deficiencies. In no way does the coach try to lose or try not to win. Fleck is very calculated in everything he does. No sure why people can't take him at his word. He simply says that if they do what they are suppose to do, they will win. "We deserved what we got this year." This worked for him as his last job and why would he change it if he feels it's working here?

I understand people think that the coaches game plans were terrible and that they didn't try to win. Like Kill, he was not brought here to win in year #1, he was brought in to build a sustainable program. I think it's that simple. Outside of Croft, every player leaving seems to be grateful and understands they just don't fit this team, staff, or culture.

Coaching changes are hard and like the private sector there is attrition when the CEO is changed.

I thought this team would win 3 to 9 games and they won 5. I left last season feeling blah. Every game was as expected except the bowl. I emailed the AD and asked him to look at the big picture and fire the current coach to hire a dynamic coach to move up in the West Division. He did it and I'm willing to see what the results in the future will be.

Year #1 saw:

5 wins, not bad for injuries, first time QB's, and attrition.
Least penalized team in the COUNTRY.
Highest GPA ever
Moving toward best recruiting class in a decade
Off field stories (These matter and people donate to good causes)
Red-shirted 23 or 26 freshmen

Life is much easier Rowing the Boat!

PMWinSTP said:

Not sure I follow...how are you using the term winning record? Could you mean better record?

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For me, winning record = more wins than losses = better than .500 record. Very few teams with a prior year winning record improved the next year with a new coach.