Class of 2015 attrition

die hard gopher

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11 scholarship guys from the 2015 class are already gone and it's not even their senior year. Has a recruiting class ever had this much attrition before?

Ted Steiber
Tyler Moore
Nick Connelly
Demry Croft
Rashad Still
Hunter Register
James Johanneson
Mose Hall
Dior Johnson
Ray Buford
Kiante Hardin
 


It's an opportunity for PJ to add better people. He works recruiting pretty hard and pretty well. He'll make lemonade. Recruiting is a strength.
 

It's an opportunity for PJ to add better people. He works recruiting pretty hard and pretty well. He'll make lemonade. Recruiting is a strength.

I'm guessing he also knows how to coach and build a program although you'd never know it from most of your posts.
 




Moore, Johnson, Buford and Hardin sure would have been helpful (if everything would have worked out).
 


Knowing the average or typical attrition rate would help add context.

https://auburn.247sports.com/Board/42/Contents/Attrition-in-college-football-8345188

"Most major college football programs sign 25 new enrollees every year. How much attrition has to take place for these schools to remain at or below 85 total scholarships? Keep in mind there are 5 classes on campus at all times: redshirt freshmen, freshmen, sophomores, juniors, and seniors. If attrition was constant and each redshirt freshman class was made up of 25 players, each class would need to lose 4 players per year to keep the total scholarship players at 85. Each class size would be as follows: RFR-25, FR-21, So-17, JR-13, SR-9. 64% of every class fails to finish their eligibility for various reasons."
 




Knowing the average or typical attrition rate would help add context.

https://auburn.247sports.com/Board/42/Contents/Attrition-in-college-football-8345188

"Most major college football programs sign 25 new enrollees every year. How much attrition has to take place for these schools to remain at or below 85 total scholarships? Keep in mind there are 5 classes on campus at all times: redshirt freshmen, freshmen, sophomores, juniors, and seniors. If attrition was constant and each redshirt freshman class was made up of 25 players, each class would need to lose 4 players per year to keep the total scholarship players at 85. Each class size would be as follows: RFR-25, FR-21, So-17, JR-13, SR-9. 64% of every class fails to finish their eligibility for various reasons."

This is assuming that every freshman redshirts in their first year on campus, which isn't typically the case. Also, many major programs have guys who leave school early for the NFL, something I would label separately from attrition.
 

This is assuming that every freshman redshirts in their first year on campus, which isn't typically the case. Also, many major programs have guys who leave school early for the NFL, something I would label separately from attrition.
Also assumes 25 recruits each year which is not always the case

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

11 scholarship guys from the 2015 class are already gone and it's not even their senior year. Has a recruiting class ever had this much attrition before?

Ted Steiber
Tyler Moore
Nick Connelly
Demry Croft
Rashad Still
Hunter Register
James Johanneson
Mose Hall
Dior Johnson
Ray Buford
Kiante Hardin


15 scholarship players from the 2006 recruiting class were gone before 2009.

88 Albrecht, Brooks WR 6-2 205 Fr. Hutchinson, Minn. (Hutchinson) x
76 Alford, Dominic OT 6-3 305 Fr. Cleveland, Ohio (Shaker Heights)
63 Brinkhaus, Andy OT 6-3 275 Fr. Bloomington, Minn. (Bloomington Jefferson)
99 Brown, Garrett DT 6-2 285 Fr. New Haven, Conn. (Fairfield College Prep)
5 Buckner, R.J. DB 5-11 190 Fr. Keller, Texas (Harvest Christian Academy)
53 Burris, D.J. OC 6-2 278 Fr. Kenton, Ohio (Kenton)
30 Campbell, Lee LB 6-3 220 Fr. Naples, Fla. (Gulf Coast)
?? Coleman, Ryan LS 6-1 220 Fr. Brookfield, Wis. (Brookfield East)
?? Ellestad, Eric K 6-2 170 Fr. Brooklyn Park, Minn. (Armstrong)
83 Fischer, Ben WR 6-1 180 Fr. Wausau, Wis. (Wausau East) x
13 Gaither, Ben QB 6-3 190 Fr. Wayzata, Minn. (Wayzata) x
40 Hart, Michael LB 6-1 200 Fr. Pewaukee, Wis. (Pewaukee) x

52 Henderson, Ray DE 6-6 255 Fr. Oak Creek, Wis. (Oak Creek)
27 Jilek, Scott DB 5-11 190 Fr. Eden Prairie, Minn. (Eden Prairie) x
34 Jones, E.J. RB 5-9 185 Fr. Edwardsville, Ill. (Edwardsville) x
50 Kinsella, Dan DT 6-3 250 Fr. Stevens Point, Wis. (Stevens Point)x
21 Love, Daron DB 6-1 185 Fr. Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. (William T. Dwyer)x

95 McWhirter, Sean DL 6-3 245 Fr. Maple Plain, Minn. (Orono)x
28 Ogundipe, D WR 5-7 175 Fr. New Brighton, Minn. (Irondale)
82 Sherels, Marcus WR 5-11 175 Fr. Rochester, Minn. (John Marshall)
27 Sherrer, Terrence RB 5-11 195 Fr. Cincinnati, Ohio (Colerain) x
71 Shouman, Belal OG 6-2 260 Fr. Lakeville, Minn. (Lakeville North) x
33 Thompson, Ken RB 5-9 180 Fr. Saginaw, Mich. (Park Cottage Grove (MN) x
38 Turry, Ryan LB 5-10 200 Fr. Forest Lake, Minn. (Forest Lake ) x

8 Weber, Adam QB 6-3 210 Fr. Shoreview, Minn. (Mounds View)
17 Wentzel, T.J. DB 6-1 195 Fr. Emmetsburg, Iowa (Emmetsburg) x
45 Wey, Mike LB 6-3 235 Fr. Oak Creek, Wis. (Oak Creek) x
 



15 scholarship players from the 2006 recruiting class were gone before 2009.

88 Albrecht, Brooks WR 6-2 205 Fr. Hutchinson, Minn. (Hutchinson) x
76 Alford, Dominic OT 6-3 305 Fr. Cleveland, Ohio (Shaker Heights)
63 Brinkhaus, Andy OT 6-3 275 Fr. Bloomington, Minn. (Bloomington Jefferson)
99 Brown, Garrett DT 6-2 285 Fr. New Haven, Conn. (Fairfield College Prep)
5 Buckner, R.J. DB 5-11 190 Fr. Keller, Texas (Harvest Christian Academy)
53 Burris, D.J. OC 6-2 278 Fr. Kenton, Ohio (Kenton)
30 Campbell, Lee LB 6-3 220 Fr. Naples, Fla. (Gulf Coast)
?? Coleman, Ryan LS 6-1 220 Fr. Brookfield, Wis. (Brookfield East)
?? Ellestad, Eric K 6-2 170 Fr. Brooklyn Park, Minn. (Armstrong)
83 Fischer, Ben WR 6-1 180 Fr. Wausau, Wis. (Wausau East) x
13 Gaither, Ben QB 6-3 190 Fr. Wayzata, Minn. (Wayzata) x
40 Hart, Michael LB 6-1 200 Fr. Pewaukee, Wis. (Pewaukee) x

52 Henderson, Ray DE 6-6 255 Fr. Oak Creek, Wis. (Oak Creek)
27 Jilek, Scott DB 5-11 190 Fr. Eden Prairie, Minn. (Eden Prairie) x
34 Jones, E.J. RB 5-9 185 Fr. Edwardsville, Ill. (Edwardsville) x
50 Kinsella, Dan DT 6-3 250 Fr. Stevens Point, Wis. (Stevens Point)x
21 Love, Daron DB 6-1 185 Fr. Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. (William T. Dwyer)x

95 McWhirter, Sean DL 6-3 245 Fr. Maple Plain, Minn. (Orono)x
28 Ogundipe, D WR 5-7 175 Fr. New Brighton, Minn. (Irondale)
82 Sherels, Marcus WR 5-11 175 Fr. Rochester, Minn. (John Marshall)
27 Sherrer, Terrence RB 5-11 195 Fr. Cincinnati, Ohio (Colerain) x
71 Shouman, Belal OG 6-2 260 Fr. Lakeville, Minn. (Lakeville North) x
33 Thompson, Ken RB 5-9 180 Fr. Saginaw, Mich. (Park Cottage Grove (MN) x
38 Turry, Ryan LB 5-10 200 Fr. Forest Lake, Minn. (Forest Lake ) x

8 Weber, Adam QB 6-3 210 Fr. Shoreview, Minn. (Mounds View)
17 Wentzel, T.J. DB 6-1 195 Fr. Emmetsburg, Iowa (Emmetsburg) x
45 Wey, Mike LB 6-3 235 Fr. Oak Creek, Wis. (Oak Creek) x

Not energetic enough to check on all of them, but not all of those guys were scholarships. I know Wentzel for sure was a walk-on and probably a few others. Also, TJ Wentzel is nowhere near 6-1. Just in case he's reading.
 

I think we essentially have four players left from that class.

Huff, Huff, Shenault, and Delattibournenealiadi


2018 will still be tough, but 2019 we won't lose very many players from graduation.
 

JJ might have been the best running back ... but was never given a chance to prove it. So he went home to North Dakota.
 


This is assuming that every freshman redshirts in their first year on campus, which isn't typically the case. Also, many major programs have guys who leave school early for the NFL, something I would label separately from attrition.

Splitting hairs on leaving early NFL being attrition, based on the numbers overall. This is a stripped done way of looking at it...the numbers are the numbers with 85 scholarships. Less red-shirts just means the FR number is a little higher, doesn't change the overall number, just flips the % attrition from one group to the other. Less RFR means the attrition % will be slightly higher for that group and slightly lower for FR group. Pretty much the same for recruiting classes...those with a little higher count would have a slightly lower attrition rate and vice versa.
 

JJ might have been the best running back ... but was never given a chance to prove it. So he went home to North Dakota.

Huh?

Why would you think JJ was better than Brooks? Worse numbers playing against worse competition?

I think JJ could have been successful here, but that's an odd comment.

I guess Register might have been the best safety or WR, he just never got the chance.
 

11 scholarship guys from the 2015 class are already gone and it's not even their senior year. Has a recruiting class ever had this much attrition before?

Ted Steiber
Tyler Moore
Nick Connelly
Demry Croft
Rashad Still
Hunter Register
James Johanneson
Mose Hall
Dior Johnson
Ray Buford
Kiante Hardin

Andy Greder obviously reads Gopherhole.
 

How many of our attrition losses have gone on to have superior D-1 careers? I am struggling to recall any players that have actually played for the Gophers and left, make an impact at the D1 level elsewhere.
 

How many of our attrition losses have gone on to have superior D-1 careers? I am struggling to recall any players that have actually played for the Gophers and left, make an impact at the D1 level elsewhere.

Well, they would only be RS-SO.

Moore retired because of injury.
Hardin would have been our best CB, he went to JuCo.
Buford likely would have been a starter, he went to JuCo.
Johnson, see Buford.
Connelly retired.
 

JJ might have been the best running back ... but was never given a chance to prove it. So he went home to North Dakota.

Looks like he was the #3 back with the Sue. Maybe he will do better next year but, based on these stats, he probably would not have seen the field for the Gophers this Fall.

RUSHING GP-GS Att Gain Loss Net Avg TD Long Avg/G
John Santiago 11-11 119 759 42 717 6.0 5 81 65.2
Brady Oliveira 11-0 111 651 14 637 5.7 3 57 57.9
James Johannesson 11-0 41 255 7 248 6.0 4 56 22.5
 

I was curious what the attrition numbers looked like across the entire Kill/Claeys recruiting era. Here are the number of players who didn't finish out their eligibility at Minnesota.


2011 - Lost 11 - Signed 26 - Completed/On Roster 58%
2012 - Lost 9 - Signed 27 - Completed/On Roster 67%
2013 - Lost 10 - Signed 19 - Completed/On Roster 47%
2014 - Lost 13 - Signed 22 - Completed/On Roster 41%
2015 - Lost 12 - Signed 24 - Completed/On Roster 50%
2016 - Lost 1 - Signed 21 - Completed/On Roster 95%
2017 - Lost 2 - Signed 26 - Completed/On Roster 93%

We are obviously only 1-2 years into the last two classes but so far so good with those.

The core of this years team was the 2013, 2014, 2015 classes, the three classes with the most attrition. Next year it'll be 2014, 2015, 2016. There's a reason Fleck keeps saying we're young. Those classes hurt the foundation of this team and it will take time to build it back up.
 

I think we essentially have four players left from that class.

Huff, Huff, Shenault, and Delattibournenealiadi


2018 will still be tough, but 2019 we won't lose very many players from graduation.

I wouldn't rule out Oseland or Dovich making an impact quite yet, they have a chance to compete for starting O-Line positions next year. If Brooks retires from concussions, Femi-Cole is likely number 2 at RB next year. Zo Craighton will also be a starter if he doesn't transfer or get injured again. I agree that the 2015 class sucks but a couple years left for a few guys to make an impact.
 


I wouldn't rule out Oseland or Dovich making an impact quite yet, they have a chance to compete for starting O-Line positions next year. If Brooks retires from concussions, Femi-Cole is likely number 2 at RB next year. Zo Craighton will also be a starter if he doesn't transfer or get injured again. I agree that the 2015 class sucks but a couple years left for a few guys to make an impact.

Yep, agreed on all.


Best of the class? Maybe.

Best on the team? No chance.

So you say ... where is the proof? We'll never know for sure.
 

I remember one of Mason's classes--2004--had quite a bit of attrition. I checked and it was 50%. That was the year Mase signed 6 QBs (Ernst, Sloan-El, Wess, Mortensen, Maciejowski, and Carlson). 3 of those QBs (Ernst, Mortensen, and Maciejowski) stayed through their eligibility. Carlson moved to LB, but it looks like he didn't play as a senior.

I still marvel how we missed on so many of these WR recruits. Holland, Jr., was quite the get as I remember and Still, while an under-the-radar guy, had some tools that the staff couldn't refine. Don't know if all of that can be laid at the feet of the coaching staff, but it's a head-scratcher to me.
 

Yep, agreed on all.




So you say ... where is the proof? We'll never know for sure.

I think when you're the 3rd best running back for the Sue, it proves he's not better than Shannon Brooks, Rodney Smith, or Kobe.
 

From the info I've seen and read, attrition rates in the low 50% to low 60% are pretty normal.
 




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