All things 5-7 - Bowl Game Possibilities Thread

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Wisconsin has to get past Michigan, us, and the East champion (likely OSU) to get to the playoff. While they've had an easy schedule thus far, similar to Iowa 2015, they are better than that Iowa squad. That said, they don't have an elite offense and will struggle to score vs good defenses. I don't think they make it to the playoff... If they do, can't really say they don't deserve it at that point.
 

Two updates since I posted this from MAC country.

Miami (OH) is now out of Bowl Contention so that's one less team in the pool.
But Akron beat Ohio, so they are now confirmed. They were likely in a bowl before, but they are now at 6 wins.

44 teams for 18 spots.

Team - w - l - next opp - % chance win - next opp - % chance of win
Arkansas State 5 3 USA 96% TX ST/ULM/TROY 74%
Oregon 5 5 ARIZ 63% OR ST 91%
Boston College 5 5 Conn 94% Syr 42%
Texas 5 5 WVU 53% Tex Tech 73%
Arizona State 5 5 OR ST 78% ARIZ 48%
Middle Tennessee 5 5 WKU 45% ODU 79%
Utah State 5 5 Haw 86% AirF 37%
Missouri 5 5 VAN 58% ARK 57%
Western Kentucky 5 5 MTSU 54% FIU 47%
UT San Antonio 5 4 MAR 52% LT 45%
Georgia Tech 5 4 Duke 61% UGA 25%
Kansas State 5 5 OK St 18% IA ST 52%
Utah 5 5 WAS 6% COL 62%
Florida State 3 6 DSU 99% FLA / ULM 64%
Ole Miss 5 5 T AM 46% MSST 12%
Temple 5 5 UCF 14% Tulsa 40%
Texas Tech 5 5 TCU 25% Texas 26%
Louisiana Tech 4 6 UTEP 85% UTSA 54%


New Mexico State 4 5 ULL 60% IDHO / USA 74%
California 5 5 STAN 11% UCLA 28%
Colorado 5 6 UTAH 37%

Minnesota 5 5 NW 24% WIS 12%

Indiana 4 6 RUTG 76% Purdue 42%
Louisiana 4 5 NMSU 40% GASO / APP 73%
Buffalo 4 6 BALL 84% OHIO 28%
UNLV 4 6 UNM 46% NEV 47%
Tennessee 4 6 LSU 28% VAN 67%
South Alabama 4 6 GASO 60% NMSU 31%
Syracuse 4 6 LOU 30% BC 57%
Old Dominion 4 6 RICE 75% MTSU 21%
Vanderbilt 4 6 MIZ 42% TEN 33%
UCLA 5 5 USC 19% CAL 71%
Duke 4 6 GT 38% WF 30%
Purdue 4 6 IOWA 18% IND 58%
Air Force 4 5 WYO 16% BSU 63%
Nebraska 4 6 PSU 30% IOWA 26%
Arkansas 4 6 MSST 17% MIZZ 43%
Tulane 4 6 HOU 30% SMU 24%
Idaho 3 6 CCU 77% NMSU / GAST 26%
Rutgers 4 6 IND 24% MSU 25%
Pittsburgh 4 6 VT 10% MIA 18%
Maryland 4 6 MSU 19% PSU 6%
Hawai'i 3 6 FRES / USU 14% BYU 45%
Louisiana Monroe 4 5 AUB 1% ARST / FSU 26%
 

Thanks for that post, FtF.

Boy, when you start analyzing what is left -- there are now 60 bowl eligible (6+ wins), so 18 bowl slots let to fill -- and looking at what 4/5 win teams are out there and who they play .... it could really come down to the wire for the Gophs, if they don't get to 6 wins themselves.


There are 18 other teams in that list with 5 wins (Miss has a bowl ban). Of those, this is my opinion with two weeks to go:

Ark St - should at least beat S Alabama for 6
Oregon - should at least beat OR St for 6, although it is a big rivalry game and OR St would love to win it
BC - should at least beat UConn for 6, although it is somewhat a rivalry game for UConn and they'd love to win it
Texas - WV on the road will be tough, but they probably "should" beat Tech at home for 6
Texas Tech - TCU at home this week, at Texas next week, so at least one of Texas or Tech will make it to 6
AZ St - should at least beat OR St for 6
Mid Tenn - should at least beat ODU for 6
Utah St - should at least beat Hawaii for 6
Missouri - both Vandy and Ark are the bottom of the SEC, but both games are away ... might be close
WKU - Mid Tenn is a rivalry game I think, and FIU is higher end of conf, so could be close
UTSA - no idea
GT - really hoping they beat Duke for 6
K State - best chance is to beat Iowa St at home next week, hopefully they don't
Utah - best chance is to beat Colorado at home next week, hopefully they don't
Colorado - only have at Utah next week, so at least one of Utah or Colorado will make it to 6
Temple - probably should beat Tulsa on the road next week, hopefully they don't
Cal - at Stanford (huge rivalry), then at UCLA ... hopefully they lose both
UCLA - at USC (huge rivalry), then home vs Cal, so one of Cal or UCLA will make it to 6


Air Force is very unlikely to make it to 6 wins, and they're the top APR. After that, I was wrong about how a tie would be broken with Vandy and Duke. It then goes to the last single-year APR (link here: http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...otball-council-adjusts-bowl-selection-process), which both Vandy and Duke are ahead of Minnesota in that. So Minnesota is solidly in fourth right now for APR criteria.

Now granted it's possible that Air Force, Duke, Vandy all lose their final two games, leaving all three with only 4 wins and out of the picture. That's the best we can hope for. But all three do have winnable games, and all are fighting to make it to bowls at 5-7.



Gonna be interesting. Need to update this again after this weekend.
 

Ole Miss has a bowl ban this year (and probably beyond, once the NCAA gets done with them), so that's one more team out of the way.
 



It's not a slam dunk that a 5-7 team will make it this year.

With our game being early on Saturday, hopefully this thread can die around 3:00 PM.

If it's alive, it will be interesting going into the final week.
 

Well suit yourself but I will plan to update thread at least twice more, after this weekend and then with the final bowl selections to see if any 5-7 teams make it (hopefully Minn, if that's our final record!)
 

Well suit yourself but I will plan to update thread at least twice more, after this weekend and then with the final bowl selections to see if any 5-7 teams make it (hopefully Minn, if that's our final record!)

I'm hoping we're 6-5 after 3:00 PM.

Regardless, for anyone who wants to cheer on a team tonight, you can cheer on Ball State (gulp) to beat Buffalo. (unlikely).
 

I made a little spreadsheet based on FPI with the chances each team has of becoming bowl eligible...

First 18:
Arkansas St 99.5
Oregon 96.8
Boston College 96.6
Utah St 91.7
Missouri 88.6
Arizona St 87.8
Middle Tennessee 87
Texas 83.3
Western Kentucky 77.8
UCLA 77.4
Georgia Tech 73.9
UTSA 73
Utah 64.2
Florida St 60.9
New Mexico St 60
Kansas St 57.5
Texas Tech 49.8
Temple 47.9

And then:
Louisiana Tech 46.1
Minnesota 39.5
Colorado 38.1
California 36.7
Indiana 32
Buffalo 25.2
South Alabama 21.7
UL Lafayette 20
UNLV 19.9
Old Dominion 18.4
Tennessee 15.1
Syracuse 14.6
Purdue 11.4
Vanderbilt 10.5 (about 44% to win one to get to 5 wins)
Duke 9.5 (about 43% to win one to get to 5 wins)
Air Force 8.2 (about 57% to win one to get to 5 wins)
Idaho 8
Tulane 7.4
Rutgers 7.3
Arkansas 5.8
UL-Monroe 5
Pittsburgh 1.6
Maryland 1.1
Nebraska 0.7

So I'd say it is about as much of a coin flip as it could be that we end up in a bowl game. I'd prefer we just win on Saturday and remove all doubt.
 



Buffalo won tonight so they are at 5 wins. Had they lost, they would have been eliminated.

As mentioned earlier, Miss St is out, so there are 19 open bowl spots.


Based on projected game outcomes, they are as such:

Arkansas State 5 3
Oregon 5 5
Boston College 5 5
Texas 5 5
Arizona State 5 5
Middle Tennessee 5 5
Utah State 5 5
Missouri 5 5
Western Kentucky 5 5
UT San Antonio 5 4
Georgia Tech 5 4
Kansas State 5 5
Utah 5 5
Florida State 3 6
Ole Miss 5 5
Temple 5 5
Texas Tech 5 5
Louisiana Tech 4 6
New Mexico State 4 5 - 44% chance to win 6 or more

--- cut off ---

California 5 5
Colorado 5 6
Minnesota 5 5
Indiana 4 6
Louisiana 4 5
Buffalo 5 6
UNLV 4 6
Tennessee 4 6
South Alabama 4 6
Syracuse 4 6
Old Dominion 4 6
Vanderbilt 4 6
UCLA 5 5
Duke 4 6
Purdue 4 6
Air Force 4 5
Nebraska 4 6
Arkansas 4 6
Tulane 4 6
Idaho 3 6
Rutgers 4 6
Pittsburgh 4 6
Maryland 4 6
Hawai'i 3 6
Louisiana Monroe 4 5



The good thing is that many teams ahead of us player other contending teams, so as some win, others will be eliminated.
 

I hope the Gophers get to 6 wins for 2 reasons.

1. I want to see them win as many games as possible.

2. I really do not want to see a repeat of a couple years ago with all the hand-wringing and sanctimonious lectures about how "a 5-7 team does not belong in a bowl game."

As I said, I want to see the Gophers win as many games as possible. I had hoped the program was getting past the days of trying to scrape together 6 wins to barely make it into a low-level bowl game. But, that is where the program is at this year. Given the choice between a crappy bowl game or no bowl game, I'll take the crappy bowl game. I just would greatly prefer that they go to a bowl game with 6 wins, not 5.

I don't have any moral objection to going to a bowl game with 5 wins. the rules are the rules, and if the rules say a 5-win team goes to a bowl game, that's fine with me. I just don't want to hear the pontificating from the media (and, I suspect, certain people on this board) about how disgraceful it is to have a 5-win team going to a bowl game.
 


I'm hoping we're 6-5 after 3:00 PM.

Regardless, for anyone who wants to cheer on a team tonight, you can cheer on Ball State (gulp) to beat Buffalo. (unlikely).

Doh! Yes, of course. I was thinking that this topic is just of general interest to me, so would keep updating it ... even if Gophs get to 6 wins.


And, naturally, Buffalo did beat Ball St last night. That puts Buff at 5-6, with a chance to go 6-6 if they beat Ohio at home next week. Ohio is already bowl eligible, and most likely can't make the MAC championship game after losing to Akron this week. They would need to beat Buffalo next week and hope that Akron loses to Kent St next week, who are last in the division. But regardless, I expect Ohio to play for the win next week in Buffalo. Here's hoping they come through!
 



Buffalo won tonight so they are at 5 wins. Had they lost, they would have been eliminated.

As mentioned earlier, Miss St is out, so there are 19 open bowl spots.

When Akron won earlier this week, they became the 60th bowl eligible team. So that leaves 18 slots to fill (78 total slots, including the CFP semi's). Thinking at least a handful more will punch their tickets this weekend, hopefully including the Gophs. We will see!
 

For those who are interested in technicalities, there are actually a few more criteria that can (must) be utilized to fill bowl spots before any 5-7 team is selected.

- teams with 6 wins that include a win against a lower FCS team (doesn't meet the 90% requirement)
- teams with 6 wins that include two wins against FCS teams
- teams with 6-7 records, either by playing 13 regular season games (Hawaii or their visiting opponents, if they choose to take advantage of that), or by somehow making it to a Conf Champ Game at 6-6 and then losing

THEN, if those are exhausted, the 5-7 teams must be filled in order of APR.



But those above are usually so few, or none, that in all practicality it just means that any FBS team that gets to 6 wins is in, and then 5-7 teams come right after. Although I do think Hawaii snuck in there at 6-7 either last year or the year before using that rule.
 

Last but not least, there will be another team punching its ticket tonight: 5-5 Middle Tennssee plays 5-5 Western Kentucky.

4-6 UNLV also plays at 3-7 New Mexico tonight. If UNLV pulls out the win, and then beats in-state rival 2-8 Nevada next week, they too will be 6-6.
 



I'm going to pull for Middle Tennesse St.


They have an easier game next week, so they'll likely hit 6 either way.
Western KY has a slightly tougher game next week, so easier for them to lose two in a row.
 

Western Kentucky is in (at #60).
MTSU loses, but has an easier game next week, so they are still favored to get to 6 wins.


I've removed Miss St from the list.

We'll know more tomorrow at this time.
 


Georgia Tech screwed us today, by not beating Duke. So even if Air Force loses next week to Utah St, we're still behind at least Duke in the selection order due to the tie-breaker. Vanderbilt is getting crushed by Missouri (35-0 first half), and their last game is the rivalry with Tennessee in Knoxville, and you know the Vols are going to be fighting for something to salvage their season.

If it ends up that only one 5-7 team gets in, and it's Duke instead of Minnesota, that's just gonna take the friggin' cake on this season.
 

Early in the season if I remember correctly that the Gophers have a floor of 5-7 and a ceiling of 9-3.

It is looking like they are going to hit the floor and out of bowl eligibility unless some huge miracle happens.
 

we don't deserve one as a team or fans-- I would be ok not getting in one so the next time we make one it will mean we deserved it and improved.
 

By my count, I see the following:

69 teams have qualified.
If Utah loses to Washington tonight, going into next week there will be 9 spots open.

Four of those spots will be won by teams playing head to head.


Head to head matchups for spots 70 to 73

Team - Win - Loss - Games played - Opponent - % Chance winning (spot # they'd claim)
Middle Tennessee 5 6 11 ODU 79% 70
Old Dominion 5 6 11 MTSU 21% 70


Purdue 5 6 11 IND 58% 71
Indiana 5 6 11 Purdue 42% 71


Utah 5 5 11 COL 62% 72
Colorado 5 6 11 UTAH 37% 72


California 5 6 11 UCLA 28% 73
UCLA 5 6 11 CAL 71% 73


That leaves 5 spots for these 15 teams, ranked most likely to least likely to get to 6 wins:

Florida State 4 6 10 62% FLA 64% ULM 97% 74
Louisiana Tech 5 6 11 54% UTSA 54% 75
UNLV 5 6 11 47% NEV 47% 76
New Mexico State 4 6 10 47% IDHO 72% USA 65% 77
Duke 5 6 11 30% WF 30% 78

--- cut off line ----

Temple 5 6 11 40% Tulsa 40% 79
Buffalo 5 6 11 28% OHIO 28% 80
Texas Tech 5 6 11 26% Texas 26% 81
Georgia Tech 5 6 11 25% UGA 25% 82
Tulane 5 6 11 24% SMU 24% 83
Ole Miss 5 6 11 12% MSST 12% 84
Minnesota 5 6 11 12% WIS 12% 85
Louisiana 5 5 10 9% GASO 72% APP 13%



Air Force 4 7 11 USU 60% 87
Vanderbilt 4 7 11 TEN 33% 88



In red are teams that are competing with us should we tie at 5-7. The Academic tie-breaker would decide. I'm not really sure who is ahead of us there. It appears Duke is, so they would go before us since they are already at 5 wins.

Obviously, we want Air Force and Vanderbilt both to lose per the odds. That would drop it down to 12.
Duke may as well win for all we care. They have tie-breaker on us.
 

If I’m reading FF’s post correctly, it seems highly unlikely at this point that we’ll qualify for a bowl at 5-7.

Pretty crazy that there are only a couple teams in the country with a higher APR than us, and they just happen to be (or will be) 5-7 too.
 

If I’m reading FF’s post correctly, it seems highly unlikely at this point that we’ll qualify for a bowl at 5-7.

Pretty crazy that there are only a couple teams in the country with a higher APR than us, and they just happen to be (or will be) 5-7 too.

Yeh, it's really hard to tell. So many teams, many with games against someone pretty similar to them, so you can't really chalk up whether they will win or lose until they do.

Another way to look at it is to consider Duke in with 4 spots left, and we need 8 of these 11 teams to lose. (Louisiana needing to lose twice).



Florida State 4 6 10 62% FLA 64% ULM 97% 74
Louisiana Tech 5 6 11 54% UTSA 54% 75
UNLV 5 6 11 47% NEV 47% 76
New Mexico State 4 6 10 47% IDHO 72% USA 65% 77
Temple 5 6 11 40% Tulsa 40% 79
Buffalo 5 6 11 28% OHIO 28% 80
Texas Tech 5 6 11 26% Texas 26% 81
Georgia Tech 5 6 11 25% UGA 25% 82
Tulane 5 6 11 24% SMU 24% 83
Ole Miss 5 6 11 12% MSST 12% 84
Louisiana 5 5 10 9% GASO 72% APP 13%
 

Yeh, it's really hard to tell. So many teams, many with games against someone pretty similar to them, so you can't really chalk up whether they will win or lose until they do.

Another way to look at it is to consider Duke in with 4 spots left, and we need 8 of these 11 teams to lose. (Louisiana needing to lose twice).



Florida State 4 6 10 62% FLA 64% ULM 97% 74
Louisiana Tech 5 6 11 54% UTSA 54% 75
UNLV 5 6 11 47% NEV 47% 76
New Mexico State 4 6 10 47% IDHO 72% USA 65% 77
Temple 5 6 11 40% Tulsa 40% 79
Buffalo 5 6 11 28% OHIO 28% 80
Texas Tech 5 6 11 26% Texas 26% 81
Georgia Tech 5 6 11 25% UGA 25% 82
Tulane 5 6 11 24% SMU 24% 83
Ole Miss 5 6 11 12% MSST 12% 84
Louisiana 5 5 10 9% GASO 72% APP 13%

If I'm reading this right, only 2 of the teams, FSU and LaTech, are favored to win their games. There's still hope, and of course we can always beat WisconSIN and get in that way.
 

If I'm reading this right, only 2 of the teams, FSU and LaTech, are favored to win their games. There's still hope, and of course we can always beat WisconSIN and get in that way.


Yeh, that's essentially right.
Louisiana is likely to be GA SO however. They still have two games left.

For any one of them to lose isn't unusual, but to expect them all to get per the odds int he same week is where it gets tough.
The Duke win kind of screwed us this week.

But Duke beat Northwestern and we didn't beat Northwestern, so how much can we complain, right?
 

Yeh, that's essentially right.
Louisiana is likely to be GA SO however. They still have two games left.

For any one of them to lose isn't unusual, but to expect them all to get per the odds int he same week is where it gets tough.
The Duke win kind of screwed us this week.

But Duke beat Northwestern and we didn't beat Northwestern, so how much can we complain, right?

Of course we can complain, we hate Duke, with their worshiping of demons and all.
 

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