All things 5-7 - Bowl Game Possibilities Thread

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10 more teams picked up their 6th win on Saturday:
Arkansas State
Oregon
Boston College
Texas
Arizona State
Utah State
Missouri
Western Kentucky
Texas - San Antonio
Kansas State

That puts us at 70 bowl eligible teams, and so 8 bowl slots remaining. Interesting thing about the above list, is that I though a lot of those teams would make it ... but not this week. Some of those games were upsets, particularly K-State over Oklahoma State. So it seems the football gods are aligning against us here.

There are 18 teams going into week 13 that have five wins. This is my opinion on their prospects next week:
Temple - at 2-9 Tulsa - should win?
Tulane - at 6-5 SMU - even chance?
Duke - home vs 7-4 Wake Forest - even chance?
GT - home vs 10-1 Georgia - should lose
Indiana 5-6 at Purdue 5-6 - one is guaranteed to get 6th, other won't make it
Minnesota - home vs 11-0 Wisconsin - sad to say, but likely loss
Texas Tech - at 6-5 Texas - even chance?
Louisiana Tech - at 6-4 UTSA - even chance?
Old Dominion 5-6 at Middle Tennessee 5-6 - one is guaranteed to get 6th, other won't make it
Buffalo - home vs 8-3 Ohio - hopefully lose?
UNLV - at 2-9 Nevada - should win?
5-6 Cal at 5-6 UCLA - one is guaranteed to get 6th, other won't make it
5-6 Colorado at 5-6 Utah - one is guaranteed to get 6th, other won't make it
Louisiana-Lafayette - home vs 1-9 Georgia Southern - should win?

There are 3 teams going into week 13 that have four wins and two games left. This is my opinion on their prospects next week:
Florida State - at 4-6 Florida - even chance
(Florida is really in the same situation as Florida State ... so kinda wonder if they beat FSU will they try to scramble to find a 12th game? But currently they don't have one)
New Mexico State - home vs 3-7 Idaho - should win?
Louisiana Monroe - home vs 6-3 Ark St - should lose

Last but not least, there are three teams ahead of Minnesota in the APR selection criteria. This is my opinion on their prospects next week:
Air Force 4-7 - home vs 6-5 Utah State - even chance?
Duke 5-6 - home vs 7-4 Wake Forest - even chance?
Vanderbilt 4-7 - at 4-7 Tennessee - even chance?



So there are 8 bowl slots left, and a minimum of 4 teams will punch their ticket next week, with a maximum of 14 possible teams being able to get to six wins next week. Then there are a couple other possible teams waiting in the wings. And even if we do make it to 5-7 with bowl slots open, we're stuck behind Duke no matter what, and maybe Air Force and Vandy too.

A very possible scenario that cooks our bacon: Temple, UNLV, and Louisiana-Lafayette all win their games, and Florida St beats Florida. Then FSU just has to beat Louisiana-Monroe on Dec 2 to get its 6th win. That would, at a minimum, give 78 teams with six wins.


Would say less than 10% chance that Gophers make a bowl this year. :(
 

FtF, I think you have incorrectly removed Mississippi State from being bowl eligible. It is actually Mississippi that is ineligible this year, not State. So the current number is 70 eligible teams.
 

MnplsGopher said:
FtF, I think you have incorrectly removed Mississippi State from being bowl eligible. It is actually Mississippi that is ineligible this year, not State. So the current number is 70 eligible teams.
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Oh, then things are worse yet.
 

"Would say less than 10% chance that Gophers make a bowl this year."

And that is probably a good thing. I was happy when the 5-7 team of two years ago made a bowl because I thought the team was better than its record that was heavily influenced by playing a very tough schedule. This team is arguably worse than its record.
 

Sure. But on the other hand ... will you still agree with that, if Buffalo and Middle Tennessee get to go to lower end bowl games vs teams of those caliber?

Plus, the 15 extra practices are like an extra spring ball. Practice helps develop younger players.
 



Quick guide for who we want to LOSE this week:

Friday:
Buffalo
Texas Tech

Saturday:
Tulane
Georgia Tech
Florida St
Louisiana Monroe
UNLV
Vandy
Temple
New Mexico St
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
Air Force
 

Florida is getting a new coach. They don't care about a 12th game and bowl eligibility.
 

I like our chances for getting into the Toilet Bowl played in Flushing, New York. [emoji41]
 



MaxyJR1 said:
Florida is getting a new coach. They don't care about a 12th game and bowl eligibility.
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But they probably care about ending the season right, by beating a hated rival on the last game of the year. I hope so!
 

Doesn't look good if we can't pull the upset against the Badgers. With the four games between teams where the winner will get to six wins plus Duke being ahead of us in the pecking order there are 3 spots still open if we finish 5-7. Of the teams who are not playing another 5-6 team there are 4 with better than 50% probability to get to 6 wins...Louisiana-Lafayette (68.7%), Florida St (61.4%), Louisiana Tech (55.4%), and New Mexico St (51.8%).

Air Force is basically a coin flip to pick up their 5th win, and Vandy is about 30% to get theirs.

Going to need a lot of help if we don't help ourselves.
 

Isn't every game a 50/50?


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bizzle22 said:
Doesn't look good if we can't pull the upset against the Badgers. With the four games between teams where the winner will get to six wins plus Duke being ahead of us in the pecking order there are 3 spots still open if we finish 5-7. Of the teams who are not playing another 5-6 team there are 4 with better than 50% probability to get to 6 wins...Louisiana-Lafayette (68.7%), Florida St (61.4%), Louisiana Tech (55.4%), and New Mexico St (51.8%).

Air Force is basically a coin flip to pick up their 5th win, and Vandy is about 30% to get theirs.

Going to need a lot of help if we don't help ourselves.
Click to expand...

One thing to keep in mind though: for ALL of those teams to win requires that you multiple those percentages together. In other words, the probability that ULL, FSU, LT, NM St, AF, and Vandy will ALL win their games is 68.7 * 61.4 * 55.4 * 51.8 * 50 * 30 = about 18%.


But of course, it doesn't have to be the case that all of them need to win to keep us out. As you say, only three need to win. Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida St, Temple, UNLV are the ones to really keep your eyes on ....
 

Spoofin said:
Isn't every game a 50/50?
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The technical answer to the question is extremely complicated, even though on the surface it seems quite simple.

What they're really trying to say is something like, if these two teams played 100 times in 100 parallel universes with all other conditions being equal, then team X would win 68 times while team Y would win 32 times, therefore team X winning percentage is 68%.


That is a very inaccurate viewpoint, when you get down to the actual science and philosophy of statistics. But it's far more complicated than most people care to understand.
 

MnplsGopher said:
One thing to keep in mind though: for ALL of those teams to win requires that you multiple those percentages together. In other words, the probability that ULL, FSU, LT, NM St, AF, and Vandy will ALL win their games is 68.7 * 61.4 * 55.4 * 51.8 * 50 * 30 = about 18%.


But of course, it doesn't have to be the case that all of them need to win to keep us out. As you say, only three need to win. Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida St, Temple, UNLV are the ones to really keep your eyes on ....
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Right, but those are just the ones above 50%. I didn't mention UNLV, Temple, Buffalo, Tulane, Texas Tech or Georgia Tech. They all have a better chance to get to 6 wins than we do though they are less than 50% to get there.
 

Whoops, forgot about 5-win Texas Tech playing on Friday. Added that to the quick guide (post #97).
 

MnplsGopher said:
Quick guide for who we want to LOSE this week:

Friday:
Buffalo
Texas Tech

Saturday:
Tulane
Florida St
Louisiana Monroe
UNLV
Vandy
Temple
New Mexico St
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
Air Force
Click to expand...

Thank you
 

LA-Monroe is basically out ... they have to win two, not just this week, and they play Florida St next week.
NM St also has to win two, but have a much easier path to do so. So a loss this week would be nice.
LA-Lafayette on the other hand can get it by winning this week OR next week, so a loss this week doesn't end it for them.


Since all 12 of those teams losing this week is probably impossible, here is what I'd ideally like to see:
Go ahead and let Florida St, LA-Monroe, and LA-Laf win. I'd probably be fine letting NM St win too. The rest lose. That would actually set the Gophs up pretty nicely to capture the very last bowl slot of the season, either as the top ranked APR team (Duke wins) or the second ranked APR team (Duke loses). Counting big time on Tulsa and Nevada pulling off some nice upsets.
 

MnplsGopher said:
Quick guide for who we want to LOSE this week:

Friday:
Buffalo
Texas Tech

Saturday:
Tulane
Florida St
Louisiana Monroe
UNLV
Vandy
Temple
New Mexico St
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
Air Force
Click to expand...


4 Louisiana teams.
 

Yeah, for a relatively small state (population wise), they have a lot of universities with DI athletic departments.

Smug northerner says: "That's the south for you, athletics is more important than academics. Harumph!"
 

Today:
Ohio at Buffalo starts at Noon central time. No TV, unless you can stream ESPN3.
Texas Tech at Texas starts at 7pm central, and is on FOX.

Those are the two that matter for the Gophers today.
 

Well, we're off to a bang-up start. Buffalo scores the game winning TD in the 4th quarter to beat Ohio and take a bowl slot.

We only have a margin of error of one more game. Meaning, if any two from Texas Tech, Tulane, Florida St, UNLV, Vandy, Temple, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, and Air Force win ... then we're toast.
 

We might know our 5-7 status before we play tomorrow.
 

Might be.

I just can't help but think that LA-Laf is going to win. At home, vs a 9-loss team. Almost all the other games are on the road for the five win team, as luck would have it. The others that aren't: LA Tech plays at home vs six win UTSA, and Air Force plays at home vs six win Utah St.


EDIT: jeez, I missed another one. Georgia Tech, 5-5, is playing at home vs Georgia, which is 10-1 and ranked top 5. Like to think that one is in the bag, regardless where it's played.
 

Texas Tech beats Texas.

TT is bowl eligible with the same 6-6 record as Texas.


Texas with wins over:

San Jose St
Iowa St
Kansas St
Baylor
Kansas
West Virginia


Losses:
Maryland
USC
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
TCU
Texas Tech


With the two wins tonight, I think all Bowl sports will be filled with 6-6 or better teams.
 


Face The Facts said:
Texas Tech beats Texas.

TT is bowl eligible with the same 6-6 record as Texas.


Texas with wins over:

San Jose St
Iowa St
Kansas St
Baylor
Kansas
West Virginia


Losses:
Maryland
USC
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
TCU
Texas Tech


With the two wins tonight, I think all Bowl sports will be filled with 6-6 or better teams.
Click to expand...

You have probably a 99% chance of being correct. Only need two more teams to win out of Tulane, Georgia Tech, Florida St, Duke, UNLV, Temple, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Louisiana Tech, to get to 78. Heck we could easily get to 80 this year (the number they needed the last two years).

And the Gophers' odds of making it at 5-7 are now like 0.01%, as we need all of those teams to lose, PLUS Vandy, Air Force, and it wouldn't hurt if NM St lost as well.


Very likely looking at the last game of the season today guys.



Heck, maybe that's what Fleck wants. With all the injuries ... he might be thinking "jeez, if we do get to a bowl game, I'm not sure I can put enough guys out there..."
 

MnplsGopher said:
You have probably a 99% chance of being correct. Only need two more teams to win out of Tulane, Georgia Tech, Florida St, Duke, UNLV, Temple, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Louisiana Tech, to get to 78. Heck we could easily get to 80 this year (the number they needed the last two years).

And the Gophers' odds of making it at 5-7 are now like 0.01%, as we need all of those teams to lose, PLUS Vandy, Air Force, and it wouldn't hurt if NM St lost as well.


Very likely looking at the last game of the season today guys.



Heck, maybe that's what Fleck wants. With all the injuries ... he might be thinking "jeez, if we do get to a bowl game, I'm not sure I can put enough guys out there..."
Click to expand...
Or maybe we win today....
 

My hope is we can keep it like the Iowa game. In the game the whole time. That would be a victory for me today.
 

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