All things 5-7 - Bowl Game Possibilities Thread

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Dano564

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Did some work.

First, let's beat Wisc and / or NW so we become bowl eligible, but just in case:

78 total bowl teams.
59 already eligible (6 wins)

Team
Alabama
Wisconsin
Clemson
Georgia
Miami
UCF
USC
Washington State
Army
Auburn
Memphis
Michigan
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Penn State
San Diego State
South Florida
TCU
Toledo
Troy
Washington
Boise State
Florida Atlantic
Kentucky
LSU
Marshall
Michigan State
Mississippi State
NC State
North Texas
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
South Carolina
Stanford
UAB
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Appalachian State
Arizona
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Florida Intl
Fresno State
Georgia State
Houston
Iowa
Iowa State
Louisville
Navy
SMU
Southern Mississippi
Texas A&M
Virginia
Wake Forest
Western Michigan
Wyoming

3 very likely to get to 6 wins
Arkansas State
Oregon
Boston College


That puts us at 62.

Six more heavily favored in one game or favored in both remaining games (who only need one win)

Team - W - L Remaining games and odds for each.
Texas - 5 5 WVU 53% Tex Tech 73%
Arizona State - 5 5 OR ST 78% ARIZ 48%
Middle Tennessee - 5 5 WKU 45% ODU 79%
Utah State - 5 5 Haw 86% AirF 37%
Missouri - 5 5 VAN 58% ARK 57%
Akron - 5 5 OHIO 24% KENT 86%

That puts us at 68


Remaining teams ranked by their perceived odds of getting to 6 wins.

Team - W - L Remaining games and odds for each, and ranking based on odds


Western Kentucky - 5 5 MTSU 54% FIU 47% 69
UT San Antonio - 5 4 MAR 52% LT 45% 70
Georgia Tech - 5 4 Duke 61% UGA 25% 71
Kansas State - 5 5 OK St 18% IA ST 52% 72
Utah - 5 5 WAS 6% COL 62% 73
Florida State - 3 6 DSU 99% FLA / ULM 64% 74
Ole Miss - 5 5 T AM 46% MSST 12% 75
Temple - 5 5 UCF 14% Tulsa 40% 76
Texas Tech - 5 5 TCU 25% Texas 26% 77
Louisiana Tech - 4 6 UTEP 85% UTSA 54% 78

--- cut off line ----

New Mexico State - 4 5 ULL 60% IDHO / USA 74% 79
Miami (OH) - 4 6 EMU 51% BALL 86% 80
California - 5 5 STAN 11% UCLA 28% 81
Colorado - 5 6 UTAH 37% 82

Minnesota - 5 5 NW 24% WIS 12% 83

Indiana - 4 6 RUTG 76% Purdue 42% 84
Louisiana - 4 5 NMSU 40% GASO / APP 73% 85
Buffalo - 4 6 BALL 84% OHIO 28% 86
UNLV - 4 6 UNM 46% NEV 47% 87
Tennessee - 4 6 LSU 28% VAN 67% 88
South Alabama - 4 6 GASO 60% NMSU 31% 89
Syracuse - 4 6 LOU 30% BC 57% 90
Old Dominion - 4 6 RICE 75% MTSU 21% 91
Vanderbilt - 4 6 MIZ 42% TEN 33% 92
UCLA - 5 5 ASU 19% USC / CAL 71% 93
Duke - 4 6 GT 38% WF 30% 94
Purdue - 4 6 IOWA 18% IND 58% 95
Air Force - 4 5 WYO 16% BSU 63% 96
Nebraska - 4 6 PSU 30% IOWA 26% 97
Arkansas - 4 6 MSST 17% MIZZ 43% 98
Tulane - 4 6 HOU 30% SMU 24% 99
Idaho - 3 6 CCU 77% NMSU / GAST 26% 100
Rutgers - 4 6 IND 24% MSU 25% 101
Pittsburgh - 4 6 VT 10% MIA 18% 102
Maryland - 4 6 MSU 19% PSU 6% 103
Hawai'i - 3 6 FRES / USU 14% BYU 45% 104
Louisiana Monroe - 4 5 AUB 1% ARST / FSU 26% 105


Should there not be 78 that get to six wins, the Gophers I believe are one of the top shots for any team with 5 wins by APR rate.

2017 NCAA APR Rankings
T1. Air Force 995
T1. Northwestern 995 - already in
3. Michigan 993 - already in

T4. Duke 992
T4. Minnesota 992
T4. Vanderbilt 992

So if you want to be the first 5-7, we want Duke, Vandy, and Air Force all to lose both their final games. If either ends up with a win, they would be ahead of us in priority. (Not sure how the tie with Vandy is handled).
 

I hope we win at NW, so it becomes moot, but thanks for the breakdown.
That said, I think NW is a bit overrated, & if the Gophers play like they did against nebby, 6 wins & in...
 

Currently 19 teams for 46 spots.


Of those 46, 28 of those teams play another team in that group of 46 so deciding who to root for this weekend is hard not knowing what the result will be the final week.

18 of those teams play only teams not in the pursuit of a bowl game. As Gopher fans worried about 5-7 team getting a bowl game, we want each of these teams to lose. Some once, some twice.
(apologies for the formatting).


Team W L Team 1 First % Team2 Second %
Oregon 5 5 ARIZ 63% OR ST 91%
Akron 5 5 OHIO 24% KENT 86%
Kansas State 5 5 OK St 18% IA ST 52%
Florida State 3 6 DSU 99% FLA / ULM 64%
Ole Miss 5 5 T AM 46% MSST 12%
Temple 5 5 UCF 14% Tulsa 40%
New Mexico State 4 5 ULL 60% IDHO / USA 74%
Miami (OH) 4 6 EMU 51% BALL 86%
Louisiana 4 5 NMSU 40% GASO / APP 73%
Buffalo 4 6 BALL 84% OHIO 28%
UNLV 4 6 UNM 46% NEV 47%
South Alabama 4 6 GASO 60% NMSU 31%
Syracuse 4 6 LOU 30% BC 57%
Nebraska 4 6 PSU 30% IOWA 26%
Tulane 4 6 HOU 30% SMU 24%
Idaho 3 6 CCU 77% NMSU / GAST 26%
Pittsburgh 4 6 VT 10% MIA 18%
Maryland 4 6 MSU 19% PSU 6%

Each team of these that misses 6 wins will essentially remove one of the 46 from the 19 spots.
 

When we score 48 or 54 it's so much more fun!! Maybe we got one more of those in us this year.
 

When we score 48 or 54 it's so much more fun!! Maybe we got one more of those in us this year.

It certainly provides you with more hope against NW (or any game) knowing they have the ability to do it.
Should help with confidence in games where we fall behind as well.
 


There are actually 40 bowls covering 80 teams if you count the national semifinals but exclude the national championship. So four of those teams go to the semifinals leaving positions for 76 other teams in 38 bowls.
 

When we score 48 or 54 it's so much more fun!! Maybe we got one more of those in us this year.

I certainly would bet against that given our remaining opponents. We have a shot winning at NW given that they are a relatively low scoring team but they are a good defensive team who we would be hard pressed to score 24 or more against (unless it's an overtime game - they've had 3 of those). Forget Wisconsin, especially if they beat Michigan and are in national playoff competition. Iowa didn't even crack 100 yards offense against them and they've given up more than 20 or more points in a game only once this year.
 

Thanks for the break down. You spent quite a bit of time putting this together. I agree, win at least one of two coming up and we don't have to worry about it. Players know it, we know it, lets get it done!
 

If the thread is about Minn getting into a bowl game at 5-7, then this is all you need to know:

- Gophers are tied for 2nd place in the APR rankings with Duke and Vandy, among teams that aren't yet bowl eligible
- 1st place is Air Force, which just lost to Wyoming last night, and has two games remaining: at Boise and home vs Utah St
- assuming they'll lose to Boise, so their whole season rests on beating Utah St at home in two weeks
- Utah St is sitting at 5-5 and is at home vs Hawaii next week before going to Air Force in two weeks ... so if they win next week, they might "take it easy" on Air Force


We need Air Force to end up at 4-8, ideally. So our best case scenario is for Utah St to lose next week and then fight for its bowl life against Air Force in two weeks. Even then, that will be a tough game, as both teams will be fighting for a bowl.


In the case where Air Force has been taken and there is at least one more bowl slot, then it's up to the bowl to choose between Minnesota, Duke, and Vandy. Tough to say for sure which it will pick. Will depend on where the bowl is, etc.
 



No reason to be such a hater that you've already given-up on getting at least 6 wins before a Bowl Game.
 

I'm pretty sure you were talking to the OP, but nonetheless:

- I do think they'll be competitive against Sconnie ... the game is in Minny, it's a massive rivalry, etc. .... but frankly see no chance for a Gophs win
- they have a chance against NW ... but it's on the road, much tougher to win there, and the team we're playing is much closer to Michigan than Nebraska


5-7 might be the best we can hope for this year. And it still well could land them in a lower bowl. I'd take it, so would Fleck, and so would the team.
 

Ole Miss is out, one less team to worry about

Won't play in bowl game, self-imposed a 1-year bowl ban.
 

I'm pretty sure you were talking to the OP, but nonetheless:

- I do think they'll be competitive against Sconnie ... the game is in Minny, it's a massive rivalry, etc. .... but frankly see no chance for a Gophs win
- they have a chance against NW ... but it's on the road, much tougher to win there, and the team we're playing is much closer to Michigan than Nebraska


5-7 might be the best we can hope for this year. And it still well could land them in a lower bowl. I'd take it, so would Fleck, and so would the team.

Yeah, was speaking to the O.P. Saw your post(s) after posting.

Only would say that NW never has much of a home field advantage and that NW team has been up and down all year. The game will depend on which team plays a better game and there's a lot more hope for Gopher fans after the coaching staff's decision to "let Demry run a little more".

Don't even want to think about the Badgers now, so forgive me for ignoring that part of your post. :D
 



One other thing is:

- there are 78 total bowl slots this year (including the two CFP semi-final games)
- as of this weekend, there are 59 teams that have reached at least 6 wins and are bowl eligible

So there are 19 slots remaining, and 45 total teams left that have 7 or fewer losses (meaning they can technically get to at least 5-7).


As mentioned above, of those 45 teams, the APR rankings as of this weekend are:

1 - Air Force, 4-6, 995
2 - Minnesota, 5-5, 992
2 - Duke, 4-6, 992
2 - Vandy, 4-6, 992
 

One other thing is:

- there are 78 total bowl slots this year (including the two CFP semi-final games)

I count 40 bowls and 80 teams not counting the national championship.
 

I read 78 teams somewhere. If it's 80 even better.

Bottom line is if we lose our last two, we need to make sure one or more slots are open depending n Duke, Vandy, and us.


Ideally we win, no more worries.
But for those who want to watch other games with a rooting interest of some sort, you can see what teams are affecting us and which we want to lose.


We want these teams to lose in any game they are in to open slots.

Team W L Team 1 First % Team2 Second %
Oregon 5 5 ARIZ 63% OR ST 91%
Akron 5 5 OHIO 24% KENT 86%
Kansas State 5 5 OK St 18% IA ST 52%
Florida State 3 6 DSU 99% FLA / ULM 64%
Ole Miss 5 5 T AM 46% MSST 12%
Temple 5 5 UCF 14% Tulsa 40%
New Mexico State 4 5 ULL 60% IDHO / USA 74%
Miami (OH) 4 6 EMU 51% BALL 86%
Louisiana 4 5 NMSU 40% GASO / APP 73%
Buffalo 4 6 BALL 84% OHIO 28%
UNLV 4 6 UNM 46% NEV 47%
South Alabama 4 6 GASO 60% NMSU 31%
Syracuse 4 6 LOU 30% BC 57%
Nebraska 4 6 PSU 30% IOWA 26%
Tulane 4 6 HOU 30% SMU 24%
Idaho 3 6 CCU 77% NMSU / GAST 26%
Pittsburgh 4 6 VT 10% MIA 18%
Maryland 4 6 MSU 19% PSU 6%


All of those other teams fighting to get to 6 wins have a lot of games playing each so it's too hard to predict who we want to win or lose. After next week it will be a lot clearer. But hopefully this thread is dead then because we have 6 wins, going on 7.

For tie-breaker for a slot, we want Duke, Vandy and Air Force to keep losing so they don't get to 5-7 for a tie with us.
 

Very interesting! I was just wondering about this last night but was of course too lazy to do this type of research. Much appreciated! The picture will obviously become much clearer a week from now....but what would we do until then?!
 

Isn't this where someone who doesn't have to watch the game goes off about we should turn down the offer if 5-7?


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Isn't this where someone who doesn't have to watch the game goes off about we should turn down the offer if 5-7?


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% chance there will be a Reusse item on how it's pathetic Gophers/PJ accept a bowl bid with 5 wins; and then theres a thread with about 70 replies saying what an A-hole Reusse is? I'll say 97%
 

% chance there will be a Reusse item on how it's pathetic Gophers/PJ accept a bowl bid with 5 wins; and then theres a thread with about 70 replies saying what an A-hole Reusse is? I'll say 97%

Well done. It's funny how the most pointless threads get the most responses.
 

People need to realize one thing about bowl games: it allows a team to have 15 extra practices! That is incredibly valuable, and almost completely worth it alone even without the game.

I highly doubt there is any FBS team, that is eligible and/or not in some kind of "hot water" situation with discipline or with a coach losing a job, that would not accept a bowl invite simply on the principle of having a losing record.


Now that said, among college football fans in general .... I do definitely think there is a contingent who are quite displeased with the idea of a 5-7 team going to a bowl game. Things like "don't deserve it", "didn't earn it", etc. are throw about.

There's an argument to be had there, for sure. But at least this year, and until they change the rules, I think we're going to see 5-7 teams in bowl games every year moving forward.
 

I count 40 bowls and 80 teams not counting the national championship.

It has been 40/80 at least for two or three years. Since the CFP playoff was started, and since they added more lower end bowls for the Sun Belt, CUSA, etc.

Bu the organization that ran the Poinsettia and Holiday Bowls, in San Diego, decided this past offseason that they wanted to focus on just the Holiday Bowl. So there is no Poinsettia Bowl this year, and no new bowl was approved to take its place (even though cities like Little Rock and some others have made noise that they want a bowl game). That puts it at 39/78 for this year.
 

Did some work.

First, let's beat Wisc and / or NW so we become bowl eligible, but just in case:

78 total bowl teams.
59 already eligible (6 wins)

Team
Alabama
Wisconsin
Clemson
Georgia
Miami
UCF
USC
Washington State
Army
Auburn
Memphis
Michigan
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Penn State
San Diego State
South Florida
TCU
Toledo
Troy
Washington
Boise State
Florida Atlantic
Kentucky
LSU
Marshall
Michigan State
Mississippi State
NC State
North Texas
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
South Carolina
Stanford
UAB
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Appalachian State
Arizona
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Florida Intl
Fresno State
Georgia State
Houston
Iowa
Iowa State
Louisville
Navy
SMU
Southern Mississippi
Texas A&M
Virginia
Wake Forest
Western Michigan
Wyoming

3 very likely to get to 6 wins
Arkansas State
Oregon
Boston College


That puts us at 62.

Six more heavily favored in one game or favored in both remaining games (who only need one win)

Team - W - L Remaining games and odds for each.
Texas - 5 5 WVU 53% Tex Tech 73%
Arizona State - 5 5 OR ST 78% ARIZ 48%
Middle Tennessee - 5 5 WKU 45% ODU 79%
Utah State - 5 5 Haw 86% AirF 37%
Missouri - 5 5 VAN 58% ARK 57%
Akron - 5 5 OHIO 24% KENT 86%

That puts us at 68


Remaining teams ranked by their perceived odds of getting to 6 wins.

Team - W - L Remaining games and odds for each, and ranking based on odds


Western Kentucky - 5 5 MTSU 54% FIU 47% 69
UT San Antonio - 5 4 MAR 52% LT 45% 70
Georgia Tech - 5 4 Duke 61% UGA 25% 71
Kansas State - 5 5 OK St 18% IA ST 52% 72
Utah - 5 5 WAS 6% COL 62% 73
Florida State - 3 6 DSU 99% FLA / ULM 64% 74
Ole Miss - 5 5 T AM 46% MSST 12% 75
Temple - 5 5 UCF 14% Tulsa 40% 76
Texas Tech - 5 5 TCU 25% Texas 26% 77
Louisiana Tech - 4 6 UTEP 85% UTSA 54% 78

--- cut off line ----

New Mexico State - 4 5 ULL 60% IDHO / USA 74% 79
Miami (OH) - 4 6 EMU 51% BALL 86% 80
California - 5 5 STAN 11% UCLA 28% 81
Colorado - 5 6 UTAH 37% 82

Minnesota - 5 5 NW 24% WIS 12% 83

Indiana - 4 6 RUTG 76% Purdue 42% 84
Louisiana - 4 5 NMSU 40% GASO / APP 73% 85
Buffalo - 4 6 BALL 84% OHIO 28% 86
UNLV - 4 6 UNM 46% NEV 47% 87
Tennessee - 4 6 LSU 28% VAN 67% 88
South Alabama - 4 6 GASO 60% NMSU 31% 89
Syracuse - 4 6 LOU 30% BC 57% 90
Old Dominion - 4 6 RICE 75% MTSU 21% 91
Vanderbilt - 4 6 MIZ 42% TEN 33% 92
UCLA - 5 5 ASU 19% USC / CAL 71% 93
Duke - 4 6 GT 38% WF 30% 94
Purdue - 4 6 IOWA 18% IND 58% 95
Air Force - 4 5 WYO 16% BSU 63% 96
Nebraska - 4 6 PSU 30% IOWA 26% 97
Arkansas - 4 6 MSST 17% MIZZ 43% 98
Tulane - 4 6 HOU 30% SMU 24% 99
Idaho - 3 6 CCU 77% NMSU / GAST 26% 100
Rutgers - 4 6 IND 24% MSU 25% 101
Pittsburgh - 4 6 VT 10% MIA 18% 102
Maryland - 4 6 MSU 19% PSU 6% 103
Hawai'i - 3 6 FRES / USU 14% BYU 45% 104
Louisiana Monroe - 4 5 AUB 1% ARST / FSU 26% 105


Should there not be 78 that get to six wins, the Gophers I believe are one of the top shots for any team with 5 wins by APR rate.

2017 NCAA APR Rankings
T1. Air Force 995
T1. Northwestern 995 - already in
3. Michigan 993 - already in

T4. Duke 992
T4. Minnesota 992
T4. Vanderbilt 992

So if you want to be the first 5-7, we want Duke, Vandy, and Air Force all to lose both their final games. If either ends up with a win, they would be ahead of us in priority. (Not sure how the tie with Vandy is handled).

Thanks for all this work!
 

People need to realize one thing about bowl games: it allows a team to have 15 extra practices! That is incredibly valuable, and almost completely worth it alone even without the game.

I highly doubt there is any FBS team, that is eligible and/or not in some kind of "hot water" situation with discipline or with a coach losing a job, that would not accept a bowl invite simply on the principle of having a losing record.


Now that said, among college football fans in general .... I do definitely think there is a contingent who are quite displeased with the idea of a 5-7 team going to a bowl game. Things like "don't deserve it", "didn't earn it", etc. are throw about.

There's an argument to be had there, for sure. But at least this year, and until they change the rules, I think we're going to see 5-7 teams in bowl games every year moving forward.

With all due respect - who cares what those fans think? They can simply not watch or attend said bowl game if it offends them so. If the bowl sponsors want it and the teams want it, then what that contingent thinks couldn't possibly matter less. I am yet to see one viable reason a 5-7 team shouldn't accept an invite. The very idea is crazy talk.


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It has been 40/80 at least for two or three years. Since the CFP playoff was started, and since they added more lower end bowls for the Sun Belt, CUSA, etc.

Bu the organization that ran the Poinsettia and Holiday Bowls, in San Diego, decided this past offseason that they wanted to focus on just the Holiday Bowl. So there is no Poinsettia Bowl this year, and no new bowl was approved to take its place (even though cities like Little Rock and some others have made noise that they want a bowl game). That puts it at 39/78 for this year.


Thanks for the explanation. I didn't look at the names of the bowls but I counted 40 (exclusive of the championship game) on ESPN this morning so maybe their site never updated the list to account for a cancellation.
 

With all due respect - who cares what those fans think? They can simply not watch or attend said bowl game if it offends them so. If the bowl sponsors want it and the teams want it, then what that contingent thinks couldn't possibly matter less. I am yet to see one viable reason a 5-7 team shouldn't accept an invite. The very idea is crazy talk.


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Agreed. I really enjoyed watching the Gophers beat Central Michigan in the Quick Lane bowl two years ago after such a disappointing season. It's especially nice to end the season with a win in a holiday game after a season of frustration. I think some people are more concerned with image and bragging rights than the enjoyment of watching their team. They think their team will be ridiculed and dismissed for playing in a bowl that way and that bothers them. Yes, the team may be ridiculed and dismissed by other fan bases but I outgrew caring about such things long ago.

Although I'm a bigger Gopher fan now, I am an alumnus of the University of Iowa. One of my alumnus friends (who thinks it's disgraceful that I'm a Gopher fan) asked me "Did you enjoy 5-7 Minnesota's win in the Detroit bowl?" I replied, "Yes, I did. Much more than I enjoyed watching Iowa gets its ass kicked in the Rose Bowl."
 

No you are correct, it does show 40. The reason is that the “Celebration Bowl” isn’t an FBS bowl game. It’s a game between two conferences of historically black universities that play at the FCS level.
 

Isn't this where someone who doesn't have to watch the game goes off about we should turn down the offer if 5-7?


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That caller was already working double-duty calling in to Barreiro last Sunday on Sunday Sermons.

Dan Barreiro "reluctantly" agreed as he likes to do. (It's where he acts like he didn't feel that way, but the point was so convincing that even he himself is changing his mind). He does this often to convey that it's a really good point.
Throw out the fact that Big Ten teams are compensated and contracted to appear in Bowl Games.

There are always those fans with such high standards who would turn down any bowl not played on Jan 1st because anything less would be disappointing.
 

Fact is, on a random Tuesday or Thursday night in late December, I'd sooner watch a power five, 5-7 team play against a MAC or SUN Belt Conference team instead of watching the MN Wild or Timberwolves play an almost as meaningless regular season game, and the ratings across the nation show that more people agree with that opinion than disagree with that opinion.
 

People need to realize one thing about bowl games: it allows a team to have 15 extra practices! That is incredibly valuable, and almost completely worth it alone even without the game.

Not to mention that it is S.O.P. to have the focus of 2/3 to 3/4 of those practices being the younger players - the ones that will be needed the next year. A lot of the Freshmen and Sophomores will be getting the majority of the reps.


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