Road To SS B1G Preview Part II: Gophers No Longer A Hunter, Now Among B1G's Hunted

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Road To Selection Sunday B1G Preview Part II: Gophers No Longer A Hunter, Now Among B1G's Hunted
By SelectionSunday on Twitter @Fieldof68Freak

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/852685?referrer_id=331171

MICHIGAN STATE

B1G Projection: 1st

Preseason KenPom Rank: #10

NCAA Tournament Note: 20 consecutive appearances

Key Returnees: 6-7 So. G/F Miles Bridges (16.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg), 6-8 So. F Nick Ward (13.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg), 6-5 So. G Joshua Langford (6.9 ppg, 41.6 3FG%)

Key Newcomers: 6-11 Fr. F Jaren Jackson Jr., 6-8 Fr. F Xavier Tillman

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#295 North Florida)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 173.615/7th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (5): Nov. 14: vs. #6 Duke, Nov. 24: vs. #35 Oregon (projected), Nov. 26: vs. #13 North Carolina (projected), Nov. 30: #22 Notre Dame, Dec. 16: vs. #90 Oakland

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents (1): Nov. 23: vs. #119 DePaul

Non-Conference Projection: 12-1

B1G 2-Plays: Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Postseason: NCAA #1 seed & national champs

Sparty On The Red Cedar Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: If Tom Izzo is ever gonna' win a second national championship, this might have to be the year. Though young, this team is experienced and loaded at about every position. The Spartans are legitimately 11-12 deep. Two keys will be (1) Izzo turning the team over to 6-0 So. G Cassius Winston (6.7 ppg, 5.2 apg), and (2) Langford & 6-4 Jr. reserve G Matt McQuaid (5.6 ppg, 35 3FG%) being reliable 3-point snipers to loosen things up for Bridges, Ward, and Jackson. ... Did you know Fred "The Mayor" Hoiberg's son Jack is a 5-10 Fr. G walk-on?



PURDUE

B1G Projection: 2nd

Preseason KenPom Rank: #17

NCAA Tournament Note: 3 straight appearances

Key Returnees: 7-2 Sr. C Isaac Haas (12.6 ppg, 5 rpg), 6-8 Sr. F Vincent Edwards (12.6 ppg, 42.3 3FG%), 6-4 Sr. G Dakota Mathias (9.7 ppg, 45.3 3FG%)

Key Newcomers: 6-6 Fr. G Nojel Eastern, 7-3 Fr. F Matt Haarms

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#302 SIU Edwardsville)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 133.307/1st

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (6): Nov. 14: @ #49 Marquette, Nov. 22: vs. #43 Tennessee, Nov. 23: vs. #1 Villanova (projected), Nov. 24: vs. #24 SMU (projected), Nov. 28: #16 Louisville, Dec. 16: vs. #42 Butler

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents: none

Non-Conference Projection: 11-2

B1G 2-Plays: Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Postseason: NCAA #3 seed

Boiler Up Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: There's a lot to like about this team despite the loss of 1st-team All-American Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan. Tons of experience, and talented. Look for Edwards to develop into the Boilers' go-to guy and an All-B1G 1st team selection. For as good as he is, Mathias is unheralded, the consummate glue guy who does a little bit of everything. And watch out for redshirt freshman Haarms, all 7-3 of him.



MINNESOTA

B1G Projection: 3rd

Preseason KenPom Rank: #36

NCAA Tournament Note: 2017 was first appearance since 2013

Key Returnees: 6-2 Sr. G Nate Mason (15.2 ppg, 5 apg), 6-8 So. G Amir Coffey (12.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg), 6-6 Jr. F Jordan Murphy (11.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg)

Key Newcomers: 6-1 Fr. G Isaiah "Jelly Fam" Washington, 6-2 Fr. G Jamir Harris

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#280 SC Upstate)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 172.615/6th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Nov. 13: @ #25 Providence, Nov. 25: vs. #23 Alabama, Nov. 29: #27 Miami, Dec. 9: @ #56 Arkansas

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents (1): Dec. 30: #110 Harvard

Non-Conference Projection: 11-2

B1G 2-Plays: Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue

Postseason: NCAA #4 seed

Gold Country Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: Mason is the Gophers' best player, Coffey has the highest ceiling, High Motor Murph(y) is a beast on the boards, and 6-5 Jr. G Dupree McBrayer (11.1 ppg, 41.6 3FG%) is a versatile jack of all trades, but it is 6-10 Sr. C Reggie Lynch (8.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 3.5 bpg) who must loom large in Stadium Village. The shot-blocker extraordinaire must stay on the floor for the Gophers to become truly (P.J. Fleck reference here) "elite", as in at minimum "Sweet 16 good". With a summer season-ending knee injury to promising sophomore F Eric Curry, the Gophers' frontcourt bench is razor thin, meaning Lynch needs to gobble up minutes. ... By season's end, expect Pitino's "play 8, trust 7" rotation to consist of Washington, 6-8 Jr. F Davonte Fitzgerald (returns after 2.5 seasons off from injury), and 6-11 Sr. C Bakary Konate (1.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg). ... Final projection of Gophers overall record heading into the B1G Tournament? Let's go with 23-8. The losses come vs. Providence, Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State, and Purdue.



NORTHWESTERN

B1G Projection: 4th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #18

NCAA Tournament Note: 2017 was first ever appearance

Key Returnees: 6-3 Sr. G Bryant McIntosh (14.8 ppg, 5.2 apg), 6-5 Sr. G/F Scottie Lindsey (14.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg), 6-7 Jr. F Vic Law (12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg)

Key Newcomer: 6-4 Fr. G Anthony Gaines

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#257 Loyola Maryland)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 158.333/4th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Nov. 15: #45 Creighton, Nov. 19: vs. #33 Texas Tech (projected), Nov. 28: @ #44 Georgia Tech, Dec. 22: @ #21 Oklahoma

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents (1): Dec. 16: @ #119 DePaul

Non-Conference Projection: 10-3

B1G 2-Plays: Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin

Postseason: NCAA #6 seed

Go U Northwestern Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: McIntosh, Lindsey, and Law without question are the guts of this team, but the 'Cats chances of making it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament may rest on the contributions of a couple lesser known parts, 6-8 Jr. C Derek Pardon (8.6 ppg, 8 rpg) and 6-8 So. F Aaron Falzon (8.4 ppg, 35.4 3FG% in 2015-16). Pardon quietly is an offensive (61.1 FG%) and defensive (50 blocks) presence, while Falzon -- who sat out last season with a knee injury -- figures to give NU some pop from 3-point range. ... With renovations to Welsh-Ryan Arena going on, the Wildcats will play their home games at DePaul's former home arena, Allstate Arena (formerly Rosemont Horizon). Welsh-Ryan has never been known as an intimidating environment for visiting teams, but nonetheless it will be interesting to see how NU crowds "travel" to their temporary off-campus home.



MICHIGAN

B1G Projection: 5th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #32

NCAA Tournament Note: 2 consecutive appearances

Key Returnees: 6-11 Jr. F Moritz Wagner (12.1 ppg, 39.5 3FG%), 6-4 Sr. G Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (9.1 ppg, 37.8 3FG%), 6-8 Sr. F Duncan Robinson (7.7 ppg, 42.4 3FG%)

Key Newcomers: 6-1 Gr. G Jaaron Simmons (Ohio/15.9 ppg, 6.5 apg), 6-6 Jr. G Charles Matthews (Kentucky transfer)

Season Opener: Nov. 11 (#295 North Florida)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 178.076/10th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (6): Nov. 20: vs. #91 LSU, Nov. 21: vs. #22 Notre Dame (projected), Nov. 22: vs. #49 Marquette (projected), Nov. 29: @ #13 North Carolina, Dec. 9: #29 UCLA, Dec. 12: @ #37 Texas

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents: none

Non-Conference Projection: 10-3

B1G 2-Plays: Iowa, Maryland, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue

Postseason: NCAA #8 seed

Hail to the Victors Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: The Wolverines lose key pieces Derrick Walton Jr., Zak Irvin, and DJ Wilson (NBA early entrant), but never count out a team coached by John Beilein, one of the best in the business, and for my money the second-best coach in the B1G. Ohio graduate transfer Simmons figures to get the keys to the ignition, so don't be surprised if there are some early struggles with the transition from Walton to Simmons. Like most Beilen teams, expect the Wolverines to shoot a lot of 3s, including the 6-11 Wagner, but what UM really needs from the German is more consistency and a willingness to do some dirty work inside.



IOWA

B1G Projection: 6th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #54

NCAA Tournament Note: Last appearance 2016

Key Returnees: 6-9 So. F Tyler Cook (12.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg), 6-0 So. G Jordan Bohannon (10.9 ppg, 5.1 apg), 6-8 So. F Cordell Pemsl (8.9 ppg, 5 rpg)

Key Newcomers: 6-11 Fr. C Luke Garza, 6-11 Fr. C Jack Nunge

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#334 Chicago State)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 195.615/12th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (5): Nov. 21: vs. #89 Wyoming (projected), Nov. 22: vs. #11 Cincinnati (projected), Nov. 28: @ #53 Virginia Tech, Dec. 7: @ #34 Iowa State, Dec. 22: vs. #97 Colorado

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents: Nov. 20: vs. #108 Louisiana (projected Sun Belt champ)

Non-Conference Projection: 11-2

B1G 2-Plays: Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State

Postseason: NCAA #8 seed

In Heaven There Is No Beer Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: If there was an All-Glue team in the B1G, 6-7 Jr. F Nicholas Baer (7.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg) would be on it. Baer is the Hawkeyes' Swiss Army knife. You name it, he can do it. In addition to his point and rebounds totals, Baer added 59 assists (1.7 pg), 48 steals (1.4 pg), 43 blocks (1.3 pg), and 39.7 3FG%. ... If there's a team outside the top 4 that could crash the party and become a legit B1G title contender, it'll be the Hawkeyes. Peter Jok was a really, really good B1G player, but his loss will prove to be overstated. Iowa will have no trouble putting the ball in the basket. It has multiple options inside and out. As always with Fran McCaffery teams, the biggest question is, will they have the mindset to guard when games turn into half-court B1G grinders?. ... McCaffery is among my favorite B1G coaches. Who doesn't love the Francon Alert System? I love loose cannons. We need more of those in the college basketball coaching ranks.



WISCONSIN

B1G Projection: 7th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #31

NCAA Tournament Note: 19 straight appearances

Key Returnees: 6-10 Jr. F Ethan Happ (14 ppg, 9 rpg), 6-0 So. G D'Mitrik Trice (5.6 ppg, 41.8 3FG%), 6-5 Jr. G/F Khalil Iverson (3.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg)

Key Newcomers: 6-3 Fr. G Brad Davison, 6-4 Fr. G Kobe King, 6-10 Fr. F Nate Reuvers

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#348 South Carolina State)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 148.384/2nd

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (7): Nov. 12: #84 Yale, Nov. 16: #26 Xavier, Nov. 20: vs. #19 Baylor, Nov. 21: vs. #45 Creighton (projected), Nov. 27: @ #9 Virginia, Dec. 6: @ #67 Temple, Dec. 9: #49 Marquette

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents: none

Non-Conference Projection: 9-4

B1G 2-Plays: Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue

Postseason: NCAA #10 seed

Varsity Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: In early summer RTSS initially had the Badgers missing the Field of 68 as one of the "First 4 Out", but there has been a change of heart; the Badgers now are among our preseason Field of 68, for several reasons. (1) There are a lot of new faces that will have to step in and contribute (a Badgers staple), yes, but any team that has an All-American candidate like Happ will not be an easy out. (2) Those new faces include a PG I really like (Davison), a tough Minnesota kid (Maple Grove) who has "winner" written all over him. He will play, and he will be a factor. (3) The schedule. The Badgers always are among the B1G's best non-conference schedulers. I would argue they schedule even tougher than MSU's Izzo, who more frequently is lauded for his tough schedules. UW consistently does what I don't think any other B1G school does, schedule 6 or 7 non-conference games (of 13) vs. teams "that can beat you". Most schedule at most 4 or 5. Hence, if the Badgers are on the bubble on Selection Sunday and they've won 3 or 4 of those games, they'll get in, and they'll deserve it. ... That said, the Badgers streak of 16 consecutive top-4 B1G finishes in all probability ends this season.


If you're so inclined, follow me on Twitter @Fieldof68Freak.
 






Good write up.

We'll be better than Purdue though.

I have to agree. If we beat Providence convincingly on Monday, I'm going to start believing a clean non-conference result is possible. I think we have a real chance to be 17-0 heading into a tough eight game stretch. I would be disappointed with anything worse than 15-2 after the first 17 games. I'll guess 16-1. I think we'll finish up 9-5 in the final 14 games. So final prediction = 25-6 (13-5 B1G)
 

I have to agree. If we beat Providence convincingly on Monday, I'm going to start believing a clean non-conference result is possible. I think we have a real chance to be 17-0 heading into a tough eight game stretch. I would be disappointed with anything worse than 15-2 after the first 17 games. I'll guess 16-1. I think we'll finish up 9-5 in the final 14 games. So final prediction = 25-6 (13-5 B1G)

If I had the option, I would take that season right now and be extremely happy with it
 

Good write up.

We'll be better than Purdue though.

I think we are better than anyone in the Conf besides MSU (obviously), but stuff happens over the course of an 18 game conference season and we now have a thin front court with curry out, so I wouldn’t necessarily count on us finishing 2nd. Don’t know if it’ll be Purdue, but I think someone will edge us out for second, and we’ll finish third or fourth.
 




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