FiveThirtyEight: Current odds to make CFB Playoff (Wisconsin 37% top Big10 Team

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With losses by College Football Playoff contenders Ohio State and Penn State, it’s safe to say the Big Ten’s hopes for a Playoff team didn’t have a great weekend.

The Buckeyes lost and lost ugly against Iowa in a 55-24 trouncing, while Penn State took a second consecutive loss against Michigan State falling 27-24. Thanks to both teams picking up a second loss, it appears undefeated Wisconsin stands alone as the only team in the conference with a clear shot at making the Playoff.

The numbers agree with that assessment, as FiveThirtyEight has the Badgers as the only Big Ten team with odds greater than 20 percent to reach the Playoff in their projections.

Link to the Projections: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/

Link to article: https://www.landof10.com/wisconsin/fivethirtyeight-college-football-playoff-wisconsin-big-ten
 

I was watching Paul Finebaum tonight.
(Big SEC guy).

He essentially was dissing Wisconsin's chances even if they win out.

I find that odd. How do you not have an unbeaten team (should they go that far) in over a couple teams that loss.
Sure, the Big Ten West looks weak, but you still would have wins over Michigan as well as one against MSU /PSU / OSU... whoever comes out of the east.

Granted, it's not Maryland who no one holds in higher esteem than myself, but you go through a Big Ten schedule in a year when they've been generally competitive top to bottom, I don't know how you can't take an unbeaten team.

Of course, nothing would make me happier than if PJ killed those hopes by beating WI this year.




Two other things killed the Big Ten this year.
MSU losing to Notre Dame. Didn't seem like it would matter then, but it appears to be a big win for ND now.
OSU losing to Oklahoma.

On the opposite side, Michigan beat Florida. Florida having worst year in a long time now.
Iowa beat Iowa St, which starts to look like a quality win, but Iowa lost to NW.

Iowa actually looks like a team that should be ranked with losses to MSU and PSU. Both good teams.
 

Wisconsin's non conference schedule is hurt by a 2-8 BYU team. At least Florida Atlantic is 5-0 so far in Conference USA. Michigan looks mortal this year. No Penn State or Ohio State on the schedule. Like you said they will likely play one in the Big Ten title game but both of those teams have a loss now.

Personally I like it when the "Worse case scenario" happens with the college football playoff. It's fun to talk about when it is controversial.

Also wouldn't it be fun if an Wisconsin team gets left out of the college football playoffs because the gophers beat them?
 

The 9 game Big Ten schedule isn't doing us any favors.

Many of these middle-tier Big Ten teams would look a lot better with a Mercer Bear win under their belts.

The 9 game Big Ten schedule is an extra 0.5 loss per team on average.
SEC isn't doing that.
 

Face The Facts said:
I was watching Paul Finebaum tonight.
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Finebaum is a ****ing moron and an SEC stooge.

He is the type that believes that a loss to (for example) Arkansas this year is worth more than a victory over (for example) Michigan because one is an SEC team and the other is not.

Auburn is #10 in the AP poll with 2 losses (highest ranked 2 loss team). 1 against current #4 Clemson from the ACC (quality loss) and 1 vs and unranked LSU (Quality loss because they are in the SEC). They beat Mississippi State when Mississippi State was ranked #24 and probably their next best win is over a 5-4, 3-3 in conference TAMU.

Mississippi State is now ranked #18 with losses to Georgia (31-3, QUALITY LOSS!) and Auburn (49-10 QUALITY LOSS!) and wins over LSU, Kentucky, TAMU.
 



Unregistered User said:
Finebaum is a ****ing moron and an SEC stooge.

He is the type that believes that a loss to (for example) Arkansas this year is worth more than a victory over (for example) Michigan because one is an SEC team and the other is not.

Auburn is #10 in the AP poll with 2 losses (highest ranked 2 loss team). 1 against current #4 Clemson from the ACC (quality loss) and 1 vs and unranked LSU (Quality loss because they are in the SEC). They beat Mississippi State when Mississippi State was ranked #24 and probably their next best win is over a 5-4, 3-3 in conference TAMU.

Mississippi State is now ranked #18 with losses to Georgia (31-3, QUALITY LOSS!) and Auburn (49-10 QUALITY LOSS!) and wins over LSU, Kentucky, TAMU.
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True.
 

I'm no fan of Wisc but ... as things stands it looks good for them and they're undefeated.

They've been riding the fence for a while now with this, only a matter of time until enough dudes fall that they're in.
 




Man, this is similar to Iowa's run two years ago, but it's different in that the East had a couple very strong teams that year who were virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs. So an Iowa loss in the B1G championship game was great for Gophers fans and fine for the B1G.

That ain't the case this year. B1G needs a team in the playoffs and Wisconsin is the best (only?) chance. Would the committee take a 2-loss MSU team with wins over PSU, OSU, and Wisconsin? Not sure. So short of MN beating Wisconsin (which we all pray for), I would likely begrudgingly admit it would be best for the conference if Wisconsin makes it for revenue purposes and conference esteem.
 


West Fargo Gopher Fan said:
Wisconsin's non conference schedule is hurt by a 2-8 BYU team. At least Florida Atlantic is 5-0 so far in Conference USA. Michigan looks mortal this year. No Penn State or Ohio State on the schedule. Like you said they will likely play one in the Big Ten title game but both of those teams have a loss now.

Personally I like it when the "Worse case scenario" happens with the college football playoff. It's fun to talk about when it is controversial.

Also wouldn't it be fun if an Wisconsin team gets left out of the college football playoffs because the gophers beat them?
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This would be frickin' amazing. After watching us on Saturday night, however, I don't see that happening.
 

Nothing would make me happier than to see a #4 Wisconsin team come into TCF and leave without the Ax

This website would break, and PJ would get a lifetime deal
 




Jike Spingleton said:
Why?
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I can't remember the exact figure, but it's on the order of a several-million-dollar loss in revenue per Big Ten team if no Big Ten team makes the CFP.

My memory might be off, but I saw a recent article stating something to this effect.
 

dpodoll68 said:
I can't remember the exact figure, but it's on the order of a several-million-dollar loss in revenue per Big Ten team if no Big Ten team makes the CFP.

My memory might be off, but I saw a recent article stating something to this effect.
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$6M I believe...over and above bowl payout
 

dpodoll68 said:
I can't remember the exact figure, but it's on the order of a several-million-dollar loss in revenue per Big Ten team if no Big Ten team makes the CFP.

My memory might be off, but I saw a recent article stating something to this effect.
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I'd like to see that article, because that's not how I understand it. Each power conference gets basically the same payout regardless of how many of their teams qualify for the playoff. There is a bonus of like $6M per team that makes the playoff, but if you don't have a team make the playoff then they'll still get the payout for whatever other bowl they end up in, which is like $4M for the big non-playoff bowls. So the difference is about $2M which isn't very big when you split it between 14 schools.
 

bizzle22 said:
I'd like to see that article, because that's not how I understand it. Each power conference gets basically the same payout regardless of how many of their teams qualify for the playoff. There is a bonus of like $6M per team that makes the playoff, but if you don't have a team make the playoff then they'll still get the payout for whatever other bowl they end up in, which is like $4M for the big non-playoff bowls. So the difference is about $2M which isn't very big when you split it between 14 schools.
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I was wondering about this as well.
If the Big Ten isn't in the CFP, the Big Ten should be headlining the next 7-10 best bowl games.
 

PMWinSTP said:
$6M I believe...over and above bowl payout
Click to expand...

It's an impact of $350,000 per B1G school. While nice, that only translates into less than 0.3% of our annual athletics budget. So ... let's go Hawkeyes! (that's the first time I've ever said that in my life!)
 

It's very plausible that Wisconsin could go 13-0 and not make the playoff. First off, they aren't jumping a one-loss Bama or Georgia. So if both of those teams win out in the regular season (which they should) and play in the SEC championship game then you can fill in 2 teams ahead of Wisconsin. They also aren't jumping an 11-1 Notre Dame team. If Notre Dame wins out the Badgers will likely be fighting it out for the 4th spot with Clemson/Miami and Oklahoma/TCU. I don't think the Badgers would jump any of those 4 teams if they win out. (I'm assuming Miami jumps ahead of Wisconsin this week after their win over Va Tech.) Heck, it's not out of the question that Wisconsin goes undefeated and isn't even ranked 5th.

Wisconsin needs the following to happen:
1. They have to go 13-0. Anything less than undefeated and they are out.
2. Auburn beats Georgia or Alabama. (Or both.)
3. Whichever of those that Auburn beats loses the SEC championship game.
4. Miami or Stanford beats Notre Dame.
5. Whoever wins the regular season game between Oklahoma/TCU goes on to lose in the Big 12 championship.
6. Not sure if this is a NEED, but I think it would help if they play Ohio St in the B1G championship just for the brand name. I don't think beating Michigan State would move the needle as much even if Sparty beats Ohio St this weekend.

And obviously they would also welcome any totally unexpected upsets of any team ahead of them.
 

bizzle22 said:
It's very plausible that Wisconsin could go 13-0 and not make the playoff. First off, they aren't jumping a one-loss Bama or Georgia. So if both of those teams win out in the regular season (which they should) and play in the SEC championship game then you can fill in 2 teams ahead of Wisconsin. They also aren't jumping an 11-1 Notre Dame team. If Notre Dame wins out the Badgers will likely be fighting it out for the 4th spot with Clemson/Miami and Oklahoma/TCU. I don't think the Badgers would jump any of those 4 teams if they win out. (I'm assuming Miami jumps ahead of Wisconsin this week after their win over Va Tech.) Heck, it's not out of the question that Wisconsin goes undefeated and isn't even ranked 5th.

Wisconsin needs the following to happen:
1. They have to go 13-0. Anything less than undefeated and they are out.
2. Auburn beats Georgia or Alabama. (Or both.)
3. Whichever of those that Auburn beats loses the SEC championship game.
4. Miami or Stanford beats Notre Dame.
5. Whoever wins the regular season game between Oklahoma/TCU goes on to lose in the Big 12 championship.
6. Not sure if this is a NEED, but I think it would help if they play Ohio St in the B1G championship just for the brand name. I don't think beating Michigan State would move the needle as much even if Sparty beats Ohio St this weekend.

And obviously they would also welcome any totally unexpected upsets of any team ahead of them.
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I don't buy it.

I think an undefeated conference champ Wisc could jump a 1 loss Conference loser Georgia, or 1 loss ND.... or many of those teams.

Wisc might not be a perennial high profile team like some of those but they get plenty of deserved ranking love and I think they could jump some of those guys.
 

Yes, Wisconsin should make it as an undefeated team. We would be irate should Minnesota ever fall into a similar situation against a similar schedule.

However, I think last year's Minnesota team could well be 9-0 against Wisconsin's current schedule, and may well have ran the table against it also (assuming they get to finish with 2017 Minnesota). 2016 Minnesota surely was not a playoff team.
Let's hope they take an L or two and settle the matter. It's fine if the B1G sits out the playoff this year. Lots of strong teams but no national champs in the league.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I don't buy it.

I think an undefeated conference champ Wisc could jump a 1 loss Conference loser Georgia, or 1 loss ND.... or many of those teams.

Wisc might not be a perennial high profile team like some of those but they get plenty of deserved ranking love and I think they could jump some of those guys.
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We'll see. I mean, Notre Dame is already six spots ahead of Wisconsin and has two more games against ranked teams. I don't see how the committee could possibly drop ND out of the top 4 if they win them all. Oklahoma and Clemson are a few spots ahead of Wisconsin and could easily pick up a few more quality wins and win their conference title games. I don't see how either one falls below anyone currently behind them if they do that. Georgia would have a pretty nice resume if they win the rest of their regular season games and lose to Bama in the SEC title game. Would be hard to drop them too far if their only loss was to #1 Alabama. I'm sure Wisconsin fans would be upset if they go undefeated and don't get in, but it's very possible that it happens. They could go undefeated and end up 6th.
 

bizzle22 said:
We'll see. I mean, Notre Dame is already six spots ahead of Wisconsin and has two more games against ranked teams. I don't see how the committee could possibly drop ND out of the top 4 if they win them all. Oklahoma and Clemson are a few spots ahead of Wisconsin and could easily pick up a few more quality wins and win their conference title games. I don't see how either one falls below anyone currently behind them if they do that. Georgia would have a pretty nice resume if they win the rest of their regular season games and lose to Bama in the SEC title game. Would be hard to drop them too far if their only loss was to #1 Alabama. I'm sure Wisconsin fans would be upset if they go undefeated and don't get in, but it's very possible that it happens. They could go undefeated and end up 6th.
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The committee has said that the previous weeks rankings should not influence the next week's rankings. Meaning where you are today doesn't give you a leg up tomorrow.

I don't see them tossing an undefeated B1G champ for a one loss team, certainly not Wisc.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
The committee has said that the previous weeks rankings should not influence the next week's rankings. Meaning where you are today doesn't give you a leg up tomorrow.

I don't see them tossing an undefeated B1G champ for a one loss team, certainly not Wisc.
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Sure, but the previous resumes are still the same. If the committee doesn't see Wisconsin's resume as better than Notre Dame's or Oklahoma's right now then why would that change when Wisconsin's best game remaining in the regular season is vs an unranked Michigan team? Oklahoma and Notre Dame both have a top ten team remaining on their schedule. I don't see how the committee could see Wisconsin beat Michigan, OU beat TCU, and Notre Dame beat Miami and decide "Ok, now Wisconsin's resume is better." That wouldn't make sense.

I think it really hurt Wisconsin that both Ohio St and Penn St lost another game, because it means that whoever they play in the B1G championship (and probably the only ranked team they play all year) might not even be a top ten team.
 

As a badger fan I certainly think Wisconsin is capable of losing any of the next three regular season games, and again in the B1G championship game. I'm really not concerned about the playoff rankings at this stage.

However, if the badgers do win out and finish 13-0, it's very unlikely they don't make the playoffs. From the fivethirtyeight link in the first post, you can run scenarios based on different results. In what would appear to be the worst case scenario for Wisconsin - if Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all win out, the playoff percentages are as follows:

Bama > 99%
Clemson = 86%
Oklahoma = 86%
Wisconsin = 83%
Notre Dame = 20%

Even as a Badger homer, I'm skeptical that they can run the table even in the regular season. Offense has the tendency to get a little stagnant, especially now with WR Cephus injured and while the defense is fantastic another LB Orr is out for some time.

It's also college football and I fully expect for some random upset of one of the top teams.
 

bizzle22 said:
Sure, but the previous resumes are still the same. If the committee doesn't see Wisconsin's resume as better than Notre Dame's or Oklahoma's right now then why would that change when Wisconsin's best game remaining in the regular season is vs an unranked Michigan team? Oklahoma and Notre Dame both have a top ten team remaining on their schedule. I don't see how the committee could see Wisconsin beat Michigan, OU beat TCU, and Notre Dame beat Miami and decide "Ok, now Wisconsin's resume is better." That wouldn't make sense.

I think it really hurt Wisconsin that both Ohio St and Penn St lost another game, because it means that whoever they play in the B1G championship (and probably the only ranked team they play all year) might not even be a top ten team.
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Previous resumes change a lot after a conference title game.

Ask Ohio St. and TCU about that.... they did exactly what I described and changed it up the last week.
 

MplsGopherFan said:
It's an impact of $350,000 per B1G school. While nice, that only translates into less than 0.3% of our annual athletics budget. So ... let's go Hawkeyes! (that's the first time I've ever said that in my life!)
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I always root for the Squakeyes...
... once and only that one time each year when they play the BADgers.
 

MNBadgerGuy said:
As a badger fan I certainly think Wisconsin is capable of losing any of the next three regular season games, and again in the B1G championship game. I'm really not concerned about the playoff rankings at this stage.

However, if the badgers do win out and finish 13-0, it's very unlikely they don't make the playoffs. From the fivethirtyeight link in the first post, you can run scenarios based on different results. In what would appear to be the worst case scenario for Wisconsin - if Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all win out, the playoff percentages are as follows:

Bama > 99%
Clemson = 86%
Oklahoma = 86%
Wisconsin = 83%
Notre Dame = 20%

Even as a Badger homer, I'm skeptical that they can run the table even in the regular season. Offense has the tendency to get a little stagnant, especially now with WR Cephus injured and while the defense is fantastic another LB Orr is out for some time.

It's also college football and I fully expect for some random upset of one of the top teams.
Click to expand...

I ran that same scenario and saw those results. I'd be curious as to the methodology that 538 uses to get those numbers. (And don't get me wrong, I love 538 and the stats they are able to spit out. One of my favorite sites.) It just seems like there is a lot of guessing on their part. The CFP is completely different than predicting election results or the outcome of an one game or the odds of a team making the playoffs in baseball. Because the CFP is based on the opinions of a committee. Another factor that 538 can't really take into account is style points. If the Badgers blow out Michigan and Iowa, and win the B1G championship by 2 TDs then I think they would probably be safely in the CFP. But if those are all close wins while Notre Dame, Clemson/Miami, and Oklahoma/TCU convincingly win the rest of their games then I don't think the Badgers are in.

One scenario that could be really interesting is if Notre Dame and Wisconsin win out while an undefeated Georgia beats an undefeated Bama in the SEC title game. Georgia would be the undisputed number 1. Wisconsin would be an undefeated Power 5 team. Notre Dame would have a ton of quality wins and their only loss would be by 1 point to the undisputed #1 team. And then there would be 12-1 Alabama. Say Oklahoma wins out as well. What would the committee do? I don't know.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Previous resumes change a lot after a conference title game.

Ask Ohio St. and TCU about that.... they did exactly what I described and changed it up the last week.
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Sure, resumes change some. But I don't recall seeing any teams drop after winning a conference championship game. Clemson and OU both have a pretty good chance to run the table and win their conference title games - and both are currently ahead of Wisconsin. And we all saw last year how Penn St won the B1G title and still couldn't climb over a team they beat in the regular season.
 

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