Road To Selection Sunday B1G Preview Part I: PSU Eyeing NCAA Tournament w/ Chambers

Road To Selection Sunday B1G Preview Part I: Penn State Eyeing First NCAA Tournament Bid Under Pat Chambers
By SelectionSunday on Twitter @Fieldof68Freak

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/852683?referrer_id=331171

ROAD TO NEW YORK, NEW YORK -- Welcome to the 2017-18 college basketball season, arguably in these parts the most anticipated Minnesota Gophers season since 1997-98, when Gopher fans still were basking in the glow of a 1997 Final Four run that most definitely happened (if the NCAA says North Carolina's tournament runs happened, then so did Minnesota's). 5th-year Gophers head coach Richard Pitino and his program are on a clear upward trajectory coming off a surprisingly delightful 24-10 (11-7 B1G) 2016-17 season that ended with a #5 NCAA Tournament seed, but an 81-72 1st-round loss to B1G killer Middle Tennessee.



But that loss -- though not that surprising -- has left Pitino, his squad,and Gopher fans hungry and thirsting for more in 2017-18. The big question a lot of us have entering the season? Can the Gophers handle significantly increased expectations? Most preseason B1G projections have the Gophers finishing anywhere from 2nd to 4th behind prohibitive B1G favorite Michigan State. Unlike last season, the Gophers will not have the luxury of sneaking up on anyone. Can 1st-team All-B1G senior guard Nate Mason & company handle being among the hunted instead of the hunters?



That's what we'll begin to find out when the Gophers open the season Friday at 7 p.m. vs. SC Upstate at Williams Arena. Every B1G team opens the season this weekend. Wisconsin, which plays Ivy League favorite Yale on Sunday in its second of two games on Opening Weekend, should be the only team to get a serious test. Perhaps, too, Indiana, which opens vs. Indiana State. Otherwise, the Gophers and their remaining conference brethren likely will be devouring delicious soft pastries, kick-starting their seasons with comfortable "feel good" wins for their fans.



To that end, our first Road to Selection Sunday column for 2017-18 takes a snapshot look at all 14 B1G teams. Though the conference's non-conference scheduling left a lot to be desired -- the B1G is #10 of 32 in my conference schedule rankings -- RTSS still sees 10 B1G teams capable of earning at-large bids when they're doled out March 11 on Selection Sunday. In fact, we're making a bold call, we think the B1G will send a conference-record 8 teams to the Madness they call March. Here's how RTSS shakes down the B1G, with rankings, stats, key dates, players, scheduling notes, and a few random thoughts.



Today, we take a look at the projected bottom half of the B1G standings, teams 8-14, so to speak. Tomorrow, we follow with the top half. Enjoy the Road to Madison Square Garden (site of the B1G Tournament, Feb. 28-March 4), followed by the Road to San Antonio! San Antonio, hmmmmm, I seem to recall that city has a special place in Gopher basketball folklore, doesn't it?



All team rankings are courtesy of Ken Pomeroy (KenPom) College Basketball Ratings. Non-Division I opponents are excluded from non-conference schedule rankings.



PENN STATE

B1G Projection: 8th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #40

NCAA Tournament Note: Last appearance 2011

Key Returnees: 6-5 So. G Tony Carr (13.2 ppg, 4.2 apg), 6-8 So. F Lamar Stevens (12.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg), 6-2 Sr. G Shep Garner (12 ppg, 35.7 3FG%)

Key Newcomers: 6-8 Fr. F Trent Buttrick, 7-0 Jr. F Satchel Pierce (Virginia Tech transfer), 6-1 Fr. G Jamari Wheeler

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#215 Campbell)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 190.307/11th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (1): Nov. 21: vs. #15 Texas A&M (projected)

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents (3): Nov. 15: #153 Montana (projected Big Sky champ), Nov. 20: vs. #121 Pitt, Nov. 29: @ #109 NC State

Non-Conference Projection: 11-2

B1G 2-Plays: Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State

Postseason: NCAA #11 seed (one of Last 4 In)

Mount Nittany Climb With Us Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: 6-9 So. F Mike Watkins (9.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg) may hold the key to PSU's NCAA Tournament hopes. Watkins is a rim protector who ranked 9th in the country in blocked shots, and recorded 8 double-doubles. If Reggie Lynch doesn't repeat as the B1G's leading shot-blocker, it's likely Watkins stealing his throne. ... The Nittany Lions must build their NCAA resume almost exclusively via the conference schedule. The non-conference schedule is soft, with only a (possible) meeting vs. Texas A&M holding the potential for a "wow factor" non-conference win; I'd advise they beat the Aggies if they want some non-conference meat on their resume. ... Picking the Nitts to make the NCAA Tournament is a leap of faith. PSU hasn't sniffed the 4-letter tournament in Pat Chambers' 6 seasons and have only 1 postseason appearance (2014 CBI). With their returning talent -- and, yes, there is enough B1G talent to compete for an at-large bid -- anything short of a NIT appearance probably means the end of Chambers' tenure in JoePa Valley. It says here Chambers will do better than the NIT, sneaking into the First Four, while earning a contract extension. (gulp).



MARYLAND

B1G Projection: 9th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #41

NCAA Tournament Note: 3 consecutive appearances

Key Returnees: 6-7 So. F Justin Jackson (10.5 ppg, 43.8 3FG%), 6-0 So. G Anthony Cowan Jr. (10.3 ppg, 3.7 apg), 6-7 So. G Kevin Huerter (9.3 ppg, 37.1 3FG%)

Key Newcomers: 6-10 Fr. F Bruno Fernando, 6-4 Fr. G Darryl Morsell, 6-9 Gr. C Sean Obi (Duke transfer)

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (vs. #197 Stony Brook)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 162.666/5th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (5): Nov. 15: #42 Butler, Nov. 18: #75 Bucknell, Nov. 24: vs. #77 Saint Bonaventure, Nov. 25: vs. #14 TCU (projected), Nov. 27: @ #68 Syracuse

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents: none

Non-Conference Projection: 11-2

B1G 2-Plays: Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue

Postseason: NIT

Testudo Brought To You By Under Armour Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: Not everyone can make the NCAA Tournament, even teams with a significant amount of returning talent, so we're choosing the Terrapins (despite the terrific sophomore trio) to come up short. The Terps unquestionably have been a plus addition to B1G basketball, stepping right in and becoming one of the conference's top 4-5 programs (only Wisconsin & MSU definitively ahead of them), but the loss of Melo Trimble perhaps means a transition season. When all else failed last season Turgeon could simply put the ball in Melo's hands at the end of the shot clock, and Melo would invariably make something good happen, usually by going to the basket. That will be difficult to replace in College Park. Call it a gut feeling, but the Terrapins are due for a so-so (NIT) season, the kind they had under Turgeon in their final years in the ACC.



INDIANA

B1G Projection: 10th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #65

NCAA Tournament Note: Last appearance 2016

Key Returnees: 6-3 Sr. G Robert Johnson (12.8 ppg, 37 3FG%), 6-1 Sr. G Josh Newkirk (9 ppg, 3.2 apg), 6-8 Jr. F Juwan Morgan (7.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg)

Key Newcomer: 6-7 Fr. F Justin Smith

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#203 Indiana State)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 154.833/3rd

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Nov. 15: @ #28 Seton Hall, Nov. 29: #6 Duke, Dec. 9: @ #16 Louisville, Dec. 16: vs. #22 Notre Dame

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents: none

Non-Conference Projection: 8-4

B1G 2-Plays: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State

Postseason: NIT

Hoosier Daddy Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: With new head coach Archie Miller (Dayton), the Hoosiers stack up as the B1G's biggest wildcard. Despite the loss of three NBA Draft early entrants (G James Blackmon Jr, C Thomas Bryant, F OG Anunoby), Miller does not inherit an empty cupboard. Morgan and 6-10 So. F DeRon Davis (5.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg) should form a formidable frontcourt tandem, and don't forget about 6-7 Gr. F Collin Hartman (5 ppg, 3.1 rpg in 2015-16), a career 40% 3-point marksman who missed last season with a knee injury. ... Race Thompson, the son of Gophers football great Darrell Thompson, will redshirt this season. Thompson, generally considered a top-100 player in the 2018 recruiting class, reclassified and started classes in Bloomington over the summer.



ILLINOIS

B1G Projection: 11th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #104

NCAA Tournament Note: Last appearance 2013

Key Returnees: 6-7 Jr. F Leron Black (8.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg), 6-10 Jr. F Michael Finke (6.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg), 6-6 So. F Kipper Nichols (4.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg)

Key Newcomers: 6-5 Gr. G Mark Alstork (Wright State/19 ppg, 3.5 apg), 6-4 Fr. G Mark Smith

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#330 Southern)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 201.083/13th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Nov. 28: @ #57 Wake Forest, Dec. 23: vs. #81 Missouri

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents (3): Nov. 17: #119 DePaul, Nov. 24: #287 NCCU (projected MEAC champ), Dec. 16: vs. #112 New Mexico State (projected WAC champ)

Non-Conference Projection: 10-3

B1G 2-Plays: Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Postseason: none

Chief Illiniwek Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: There is talent on the roster for new head coach Brad Underwood (Stephen F. Austin via 1 season at Oklahoma State), but the Fighting Illini need both Alstork and Smith to be good right away. If there's a team from the projected bottom 4 that could sneak into the NCAA/bubble conversation, this is the one. ... Don't be surprised if Oklahoma State (where Underwood spent 2016-17) is one of the prominent targets in the current NCAA basketball FBI investigation. Don't expect a quiet season for Underwood off the court despite the fact he's no longer in Stillwater.



OHIO STATE

B1G Projection: 12th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #78

NCAA Tournament Note: Last appearance 2015

Key Returnees: 6-4 Sr. F Jae'Sean Tate (14.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg), 6-7 Jr. F Keita Bates-Diop (9.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg in 9 games), 6-2 Sr. G Kam Williams (9.4 ppg, 37.6 3FG%)

Key Newcomers: 6-5 Jr. G Musa Jallow, 6-9 Fr. F Kaleb Wesson, 6-8 Fr. F Kyle Young

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (#321 Robert Morris)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 174.384/8th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (4): Nov. 24: vs. #20 Gonzaga, Nov. 25: vs. #61 Stanford (projected), Nov. 29: #47 Clemson, Dec. 23: vs. #13 North Carolina

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents (1): Nov. 16: #266 Texas Southern (projected SWAC champ)

Non-Conference Projection: 10-3

B1G 2-Plays: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers

Postseason: none

O-H-I-O Dot The I Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: The Buckeyes have a favorable conference schedule under new head coach Chris Holtmann (Butler). Michigan State, Purdue, the Gophers, and Northwestern generally are being regarded as the top 4 teams in the league. The Buckeyes play all of those teams only once, and don't travel to East Lansing or Minneapolis (play the Gophers in NYC). In addition, there's a pair of games with Rutgers, and a 5-game stretch between Jan. 20-Feb. 4 without a true road game (vs. Gophers + Nebraska, Penn State, Indiana, and Illinois in Columbus). The Bucknuts need to make hay in that critical stretch if they want to be any kind of postseason threat. ... OSU also adds 6-2 Gr. G Andrew Dakich (Michigan), who apparently wants to experience both sides of the OSU-Michigan rivalry. If Holtmann needs extended minutes from Dakich, it probably means a long, cold winter in Columbus.



RUTGERS

B1G Projection: 13th

Preseason KenPom Rank: #125

NCAA Tournament Note: Last appearance 1991

Key Returnees: 6-2 Jr. G Corey Sanders (12.8 ppg, 3.2 apg), 6-7 Sr. F Deshawn Freeman (11.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg), 6-2 Sr. G Mike Williams (9.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg)

Key Newcomers: 6-4 Fr. G Geo Baker, 6-2 Jr. G Souf Mensah (Iowa CC)

Season Opener: Nov. 10 (Molloy/Non-Division I)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 231.833/14th (last)

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (2): Nov. 28: #55 Florida State, Dec. 16: #28 Seton Hall

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents: none

Non-Conference Projection: 11-2

B1G 2-Plays: Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue

Postseason: CBI

Jersey Shore Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: Progress is being made in Piscataway under 2nd-year head coach Steve Pikiell. The Scarlet Knights won a B1G Tournament game for the first time in school history last season, a 66-57 win over Ohio State. That may not sound like much, but it's a significant step when you're trying to build a program in one of the nation's premier conferences. ... There are soft non-conference schedules, and then there is RU's non-conference schedule. Among Power 6 conference programs, only Georgetown (in terms of average KenPom rank of opponents) has a worse NC schedule than RU. The Scarlet Knights will play all 13 games at The RAC, and only two of those (Florida State & rival Seton Hall) figure to have rosters with NCAA-caliber talent. Pikiell clearly is scheduling to get a postseason berth, and with a program in building mode it's hard to argue with his logic. Win a bunch of non-conference games (11?) + win 5 or 6 B1G games, and, presto, the Scarlet Knights should be positioned for a CBI bid. Historically, B1G teams want nothing to do with accepting a CBI bid (it means losing money), but RU would be foolish not to jump at the offer if it comes. RTSS says they'll take it, and the postseason experience (extra games) that comes with it. ... The conference schedule is tough at the top with a pair of meetings vs. Michigan State and Purdue, but it more than evens out with home & homes vs. Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State.



NEBRASKA

B1G Projection: 14th (last)

Preseason KenPom Rank: #98

NCAA Tournament Note: Last appearance 2014

Key Returnees: 6-0 Jr. G Glynn Watson Jr (13 ppg, 39.7 3FG%), 6-8 Jr. F Jack McVeigh (7.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg), 6-11 So. C Jordy Tshimanga (5 ppg, 4 rpg)

Key Newcomers: 6-1 Fr. G Thomas Allen, 6-9 Jr. F Isaac Copeland (Georgetown transfer), 6-6 Jr. G James Palmer Jr. (Miami-Florida transfer)

Season Opener: Nov. 11 (#205 Eastern Illinois)

Average KenPom Rank of Non-Conference Opponents/B1G Rank: 177.923/9th

KenPom Top 100 Non-Conference Opponents (6): Nov. 16: @ #51 Saint John's, Nov. 23: vs. #60 UCF, Nov. 26: vs. #70 Oregon State (projected), Nov. 29: #95 Boston College, Dec. 9: @ #45 Creighton, Dec. 16: #5 Kansas

Other Notable Non-Conference Opponents: none

Non-Conference Projection: 8-5

B1G 2-Plays: Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Postseason: none

Go Big Red Thoughts, by SelectionSunday: By all appearances, Tim Miles is one of the truly good guys in the DI coaching profession, but that's not likely to earn him a 2018-19 season if the Cornhuskers don't show drastic improvement this season. To his credit, Miles didn't load up his "hot seat season" non-conference slate with a bunch of cupcakes in an attempt to save his job (like most coaches would). In fact, he did quite the opposite. The schedule Miles crafted (which includes blueblood Kansas) isn't filled solely with automatic wins, nor did Jim Delany and the B1G offices do him any favors. The first 5 games of the conference season are brutal, with no expected bottom-feeders in sight: @ Michigan State; Minnesota; @ Northwestern; @ Purdue, and Wisconsin. That's the 4 expected top teams (3 played on the road), plus for good measure a home game vs. the NCAA Tournament mainstay Badgers. If the Cornhuskers win 2 of those 5, Miles becomes an early candidate for B1G Coach of the Year. If they win 3, then clearly the 'Huskers have been undersold. The more likely result? At best 1-4.

_____________________________________________________________

All team rankings are courtesy of Ken Pomeroy (KenPom) College Basketball Ratings. Non-Division I opponents are excluded from non-conference schedule rankings.

Good stuff as usual! One bone I'd pick is dropping Maryland out of the top 7 because they lost Trimble, but keeping Iowa in the top 7 even though they lost Jok. What you wrote about Trimble I'd say applies even more to Jok, and the two teams return a similar amount of talent (though Maryland's is more in the backcourt and Iowa's is more in the frontcourt). I think if I had to drop one of the two I'd pick Iowa to fall, not Md.

The conference looks deep, which means fans maybe shouldn't expect Minnesota to drastically improve on its 11-7 conference record even with a better team. If the conference sends 8 teams to the tourney, that probably means an 11-7 record is a top-4 finish again.

Man, Tim Miles might be fired by Christmas. The four games prior to the holidays are @MSU, Minnesota, @Creighton, and Kansas.

WanderingGopher said:

Good stuff as usual! One bone I'd pick is dropping Maryland out of the top 7 because they lost Trimble, but keeping Iowa in the top 7 even though they lost Jok. What you wrote about Trimble I'd say applies even more to Jok, and the two teams return a similar amount of talent (though Maryland's is more in the backcourt and Iowa's is more in the frontcourt). I think if I had to drop one of the two I'd pick Iowa to fall, not Md.

The conference looks deep, which means fans maybe shouldn't expect Minnesota to drastically improve on its 11-7 conference record even with a better team. If the conference sends 8 teams to the tourney, that probably means an 11-7 record is a top-4 finish again.

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Appreciate it, thanks.

Maryland is the one figured I'd hear the most about! Interesting thoughts on Jok. I specifically mention his absence in Part II tomorrow.

From 5-10, for the most part it was going with my gut, almost like flipping a coin. I really don't see a lot of difference between 5-10 (Indiana). The top 4 seem evident (find out tomorrow)!

Well it's fun to talk about Big Ten basketball again when the Gophers are among the conference elite. Been a long time coming.

I'm always surprised going through these previews at some of the names that are still around; always seems like some guys should've graduated already and yet they're still here. Other teams' fans probably say that about Nate Mason, lol.

SelectionSunday said:

Maryland is the one figured I'd hear the most about! Interesting thoughts on Jok. I specifically mention his absence in Part II tomorrow.

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Yeah, I just think Trimble and Jok are similar in that respect -- when playing both those teams last year, I thought their team looked like one star surrounded by four good-but-not great supporting players that would struggle without their star. I may eat these words, but I don't get why people seem to unanimously have Iowa pegged as a tournament team without Peter Jok.

Also, I see you must have Wisconsin in the top-7, which I begrudgingly agree with. They have a lot less margin for error than prior years though. If Happ ever got dinged up for a few games, they'd be screwed. Heck, if he had a Curry-type injury, they would struggle to make the NIT.

WanderingGopher said:

Yeah, I just think Trimble and Jok are similar in that respect -- when playing both those teams last year, I thought their team looked like one star surrounded by four good-but-not great supporting players that would struggle without their star. I may eat these words, but I don't get why people seem to unanimously have Iowa pegged as a tournament team without Peter Jok.

Also, I see you must have Wisconsin in the top-7, which I begrudgingly agree with. They have a lot less margin for error than prior years though. If Happ ever got dinged up for a few games, they'd be screwed. Heck, if he had a Curry-type injury, they would struggle to make the NIT.

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With the three really good sophomores, I think Maryland has more talent than Iowa. The big question is the point guard factor. Melo kept it together for them and if they don't have a capable floor leader to follow him up, it could be a frustrating year for the Terps other quality players.

I saw Penn State live a few times last year and they really do have some good talent on the roster. I'm surprised with the talent caliber that Chambers scheduled so poorly. With a reasonably experienced roster, the early season would be a nice time to pick off a big boy and get a key win. For their sake, I hope Chambers didn't schedule them out of the tournament with the poor NC schedule.

Looking at the bottom of the league, it is quite understandable why the talking heads are calling the B1G perhaps the fourth best conference. Those bottom teams are really bad. Sad to see Miles team so bad. He really seems like a decent guy in a cesspool of not decent guys.

Iowa's Nicholas Baer is out 3-4 weeks. Could miss the first 2 big ten games or just be getting back when they're played. At home vs Penn St and @IU. without him that could help facilitate 2 losses against teams they need to beat to be in the top half.

If Ed Morrow wouldn't have transferred from Nebraska in the offseason, they probably would've been respectable this year (though probably not a NCAA tournament team). That was a big loss for them. Also, like what Tim said above, Nicholas Baer broke his pinky and will miss the first month. That could have some ramifications down the road too if Iowa can't take care of business without him. I agree with you SS that this is finally the year that Penn State sneaks back into the dance. Cupcakes galore on their nonconference schedule though...

gopherguy15 said:

If Ed Morrow wouldn't have transferred from Nebraska in the offseason, they probably would've been respectable this year (though probably not a NCAA tournament team). That was a big loss for them. Also, like what Tim said above, Nicholas Baer broke his pinky and will miss the first month. That could have some ramifications down the road too if Iowa can't take care of business without him. I agree with you SS that this is finally the year that Penn State sneaks back into the dance. Cupcakes galore on their nonconference schedule though...

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Yep, the Nittany Lions pretty much will need to do all of their heavy lifting (build resume) during the Big 10 season. That's putting a lot of eggs in one difficult basket. Not much there on non-conference schedule.