Gopher starting QB and Total QBR

WinLoseOrTy

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ESPN has Total QBR stats dating back to 2004 season. That's the past 172 Gopher games.

Quick overview of Total QBR - its meant to evaluate all of a quarterback's players, both passing and running. Each game, a QB is assigned a Raw QBR score (1-100) and then that is adjusted by how good the opponent defense is to come up with Total QBR score (also on 1-100 scale). A score of 50 is average.

For more in depth explanation, click here: Total QBR explained.

It won't surprise anyone how bad the QB starter play has been the last few weeks. In fact, of the 15 worst Total QBR scores from the past 13+ seasons, FIVE of them have come over the past 6 Gopher games! That's incredibly poor!

Worst 15 Total QBR Games by Starter Since 2004
Date............Opponent......Starter.....QBR......TQBR
11/14/2009......SDSU..........Weber.......5.7.......2.1
10/7/2017.......Purdue........Rhoda.......4.4.......6.1
10/21/2017......Illinois......Croft.......8.1.......7.0
10/8/2011.......Purdue........Shortell....4.6.......7.1
9/24/2011.......NDSU..........Gray.......22.9.......7.5
10/28/2017......Iowa..........Croft.......3.5.......7.9
11/8/2008.......Michigan......Weber.......6.3.......8.3
11/7/2009.......Illinois......Weber......14.3.......9.7
9/15/2012.......W Michigan....Gray.......16.8......11.1
11/24/2012......Michigan St...Nelson......4.2......11.1
10/13/2012......Northwestern..Shortell...12.4......11.5
10/14/2017......Michigan St...Rhoda......10.9......13.0
10/10/2009......Purdue........Weber.......8.3......13.1
11/22/2008......Iowa..........Weber.......9.8......14.3
9/16/2017.......MTSU..........Rhoda......21.8......15.2


Average TQBR Score Since 2004
Starter..Games Started...Avg TQBR
Cupito..............36......64.83
Leidner.............41......57.99
Mortenson............1......57.10
Steveler.............1......53.10
Nelson..............16......51.56
Gray................13......50.42
Weber...............50......49.71
Rhoda................7......39.54
Shortell.............5......24.46
Croft................2.......7.45
 

That cant be a coaching issue (sarcasm). Hard to believe that our players are the worst athletes in the country at their respective positions. I refuse to buy that. 50% of this problem is due to sub par coaching, preparation, strategy, play calling, etc. Its always so easy to blame the talent.
 

I'm really surprised to see Weber as low on this list as he is.
 

I'm really surprised to see Weber as low on this list as he is.

This is where someone mentions total yards in defense, right?


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That cant be a coaching issue (sarcasm). Hard to believe that our players are the worst athletes in the country at their respective positions. I refuse to buy that. 50% of this problem is due to sub par coaching, preparation, strategy, play calling, etc. Its always so easy to blame the talent.

You must also refuse to watch the games.
 




It is coaching. They recruit the talent too. WTH is Morgan?
 





That cant be a coaching issue (sarcasm). Hard to believe that our players are the worst athletes in the country at their respective positions. I refuse to buy that. 50% of this problem is due to sub par coaching, preparation, strategy, play calling, etc. Its always so easy to blame the talent.

And the uniforms...
 

I am surprised by this as well.
Why did we think he was good?

Because he was pretty good until he started getting jerked around by a revolving door at OC and the mess that was the Jedd Fisch era of Gopher offense. This is one of those cases where numbers don't tell the whole story, Weber was a great leader in the locker room and was solid on the field. He wasn't a great QB by any stretch of the imagination but he was steady and if I had to pick a recent Gopher QB to run my team he would be near the top of the list.
 

1. Weber went 17-33 as a starter.

2. During Weber's tenure, the Gopher defense was among worst in country.

3. Weber played 4 seasons as a starter with 3 different offensive coodinators and schemes.

It is my belief that most fans view Weber through the lens of the second and third points. He did have some talent to work with (Eric Decker, DaJon McKnight), but the offensive scheme was always in flux. His coordinators and defense did him no help.

Weber was a quarterback who would have been better in the right situation. I think most view him as the QB he could/should have been, as opposed to the QB he was.
 



1. Weber went 17-33 as a starter.

2. During Weber's tenure, the Gopher defense was among worst in country.

3. Weber played 4 seasons as a starter with 3 different offensive coodinators and schemes.

It is my belief that most fans view Weber through the lens of the second and third points. He did have some talent to work with (Eric Decker, DaJon McKnight), but the offensive scheme was always in flux. His coordinators and defense did him no help.

Weber was a quarterback who would have been better in the right situation. I think most view him as the QB he could/should have been, as opposed to the QB he was.

If I recall correctly, Brewster had a thing for recruiting a handful of gigantic, but unathletic, offensive lineman. Their size looked good on paper, but the tackles weren't quick enough to pass block defensive ends. Weber was always dodging bullets. Leidner and Nelson faced some of the same issue, but not as much as Weber.
 

ESPN has Total QBR stats dating back to 2004 season. That's the past 172 Gopher games.

Quick overview of Total QBR - its meant to evaluate all of a quarterback's players, both passing and running. Each game, a QB is assigned a Raw QBR score (1-100) and then that is adjusted by how good the opponent defense is to come up with Total QBR score (also on 1-100 scale). A score of 50 is average.

For more in depth explanation, click here: Total QBR explained.

It won't surprise anyone how bad the QB starter play has been the last few weeks. In fact, of the 15 worst Total QBR scores from the past 13+ seasons, FIVE of them have come over the past 6 Gopher games! That's incredibly poor!

Worst 15 Total QBR Games by Starter Since 2004
Date............Opponent......Starter.....QBR......TQBR
11/14/2009......SDSU..........Weber.......5.7.......2.1
10/7/2017.......Purdue........Rhoda.......4.4.......6.1
10/21/2017......Illinois......Croft.......8.1.......7.0
10/8/2011.......Purdue........Shortell....4.6.......7.1
9/24/2011.......NDSU..........Gray.......22.9.......7.5
10/28/2017......Iowa..........Croft.......3.5.......7.9
11/8/2008.......Michigan......Weber.......6.3.......8.3
11/7/2009.......Illinois......Weber......14.3.......9.7
9/15/2012.......W Michigan....Gray.......16.8......11.1
11/24/2012......Michigan St...Nelson......4.2......11.1
10/13/2012......Northwestern..Shortell...12.4......11.5
10/14/2017......Michigan St...Rhoda......10.9......13.0
10/10/2009......Purdue........Weber.......8.3......13.1
11/22/2008......Iowa..........Weber.......9.8......14.3
9/16/2017.......MTSU..........Rhoda......21.8......15.2


Average TQBR Score Since 2004
Starter..Games Started...Avg TQBR
Cupito..............36......64.83
Leidner.............41......57.99
Mortenson............1......57.10
Steveler.............1......53.10
Nelson..............16......51.56
Gray................13......50.42
Weber...............50......49.71
Rhoda................7......39.54
Shortell.............5......24.46
Croft................2.......7.45

This is simply not true, because Brewster Fleckster said Croft made big strides in IC.
 

This is simply not true, because Brewster Fleckster said Croft made big strides in IC.

He did if you watched the game compared to the Illinois game.
He was much more poised in the pocket and more decisive in his throws.
He had at least 6 balls that should have been caught and many more the were on target but were defensed well.
He did have a couple of inaccurate throws and his timing on some of the throws that got knocked away was a little off.
Most of the balls were catchable, which was not the case vs. Illinois.
The QBR stats do not tell the whole story of his performance.
 

He did if you watched the game compared to the Illinois game.
He was much more poised in the pocket and more decisive in his throws.
He had at least 6 balls that should have been caught and many more the were on target but were defensed well.
He did have a couple of inaccurate throws and his timing on some of the throws that got knocked away was a little off.
Most of the balls were catchable, which was not the case vs. Illinois.
The QBR stats do not tell the whole story of his performance.

I feel like Croft's issue is as much decision making when he's back there and .... that's one of those things that is hard to coach. It's one of those instincts that you either HAVE and can improve on or ... just not gonna happen.
 

I was shocked to learn that Weber is #3 all-time in passing yardage in the Big 10, behind Brees and Curtis Painter (Curtis Painter?) Agree that he could have been much better in a more stable environment. Cupito's spot on the QBR chart is partially explained by that solid running game and receivers (Payne, Wheelwright, Spaeth). Mason says that one of his biggest errors was pulling Payne's redshirt so he could return a few punts.
 



ESPN has Total QBR stats dating back to 2004 season. That's the past 172 Gopher games.

Average TQBR Score Since 2004
Starter..Games Started...Avg TQBR
Cupito..............36......64.83
Leidner.............41......57.99
Mortenson............1......57.10
Steveler.............1......53.10
Nelson..............16......51.56
Gray................13......50.42
Weber...............50......49.71
Rhoda................7......39.54
Shortell.............5......24.46
Croft................2.......7.45

Appreciate the research. Somehow now take the same stat and compare our QB play to the rest of the Big 10. I’d bet good money we are in the bottom four teams.


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Not just starters, but season Total QBR breaks down like this when ranked against other B1G QBs.

2004 (out of 20)
6th - Cupito (50.0)

2005 (out of 21)
2nd - Cupito (78.7)
14th - Mortenson (46.0)

2006 (out of 20)
2nd - Cupito (69.2)

2007 (out of 14)
10th - Weber (51.7)

2008 (out of 21)
8th - Weber (54.6)

2009 (out of 20)
17th - Weber (30.4)

2010 (out of 21)
10th - Weber (63.2)

2011 (out of 24)
11th - Gray (57.1)
16th - Shortell (38.3)

2012 (out of 27)
13th - Nelson (53.9)
14th - Gray (53.7)
16th - Shortell (46.6)

2013 (out of 26)
7th - Nelson (68.5)
10th - Leidner (65.0)

2014 (out of 29)
8th - Leidner (70.2)
14th - Streveler (55.4)

2015 (out of 32)
12th - Leidner (61.3)
29th - Croft (21.1)

2016 (out of 32)
15th - Leidner (55.2)
27th - Rhoda (31.0)

2017 (out of 26)
20th - Rhoda (36.3)
26th - Croft (21.3)
 

Not just starters, but season Total QBR breaks down like this when ranked against other B1G QBs.

2004 (out of 20)
6th - Cupito (50.0)

2005 (out of 21)
2nd - Cupito (78.7)
14th - Mortenson (46.0)

2006 (out of 20)
2nd - Cupito (69.2)

2007 (out of 14)
10th - Weber (51.7)

2008 (out of 21)
8th - Weber (54.6)

2009 (out of 20)
17th - Weber (30.4)

2010 (out of 21)
10th - Weber (63.2)

2011 (out of 24)
11th - Gray (57.1)
16th - Shortell (38.3)

2012 (out of 27)
13th - Nelson (53.9)
14th - Gray (53.7)
16th - Shortell (46.6)

2013 (out of 26)
7th - Nelson (68.5)
10th - Leidner (65.0)

2014 (out of 29)
8th - Leidner (70.2)
14th - Streveler (55.4)

2015 (out of 32)
12th - Leidner (61.3)
29th - Croft (21.1)

2016 (out of 32)
15th - Leidner (55.2)
27th - Rhoda (31.0)

2017 (out of 26)
20th - Rhoda (36.3)
26th - Croft (21.3)

It's funny because I never thought Cupito was that good. I always thought he was incredibly mediocre. Looking back at his stats, he was a lot more impressive than I ever thought. I still remember a friend of mine saying they heard Cupito had decided not to pursue the NFL and I literally burst out laughing, saying something like I don't think he really had to choose. Now I kind of wonder if he had a better shot making a practice squad or NFL Europe (I think that was still around then?) than I thought.

With Weber, I remember him being pretty good between the 20's and being awful in the red zone. I'd love to see if that was as accurate as I remember.

Also, these calculations can't be accurate anyway because they show Leidner was consistently an above average QB... :)
 

On ESPN they allow you to look at an entire teams Total QBR:

http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr/_/type/team-season/group/5

Here is our National QBR ranking, which put simply allows us the compare the play of our QB's to the QB play of other teams:

2017: 125th / 128.

2016: 91st / 128.

2015: 82nd / 128.

2014: 52nd / 128.

2013: 45th / 128.

2012: 81st / 124.

2011: 63rd / 120.

2010: 42nd / 120.

2009: 115th / 120.

2008: 50th / 120.

2007: 60th / 119.

2006: 22nd / 119.

2005: 11th / 119.

2004: 51st / 119.
 

2017: 125th / 128.

2016: 91st / 128.

2015: 82nd / 128.

2014: 52nd / 128.

2013: 45th / 128.

2012: 81st / 124.

2011: 63rd / 120.

2010: 42nd / 120.

2009: 115th / 120.

2008: 50th / 120.

2007: 60th / 119.

2006: 22nd / 119.

2005: 11th / 119.

2004: 51st / 119.

I added it up and this means our average QBR ranking over the last 13 years has been 64th.

Put simply, with the exception of 2005 and 2006 where the defense let us down, poor quarterback play year after year is the main reason this program has not taken the next step forward.
 


I feel like Croft's issue is as much decision making when he's back there and .... that's one of those things that is hard to coach. It's one of those instincts that you either HAVE and can improve on or ... just not gonna happen.

He's late on a lot of throws. That's something you would think could improve with experience. I don't think his accuracy is horrid by any means.
 

It's funny because I never thought Cupito was that good. I always thought he was incredibly mediocre. Looking back at his stats, he was a lot more impressive than I ever thought. I still remember a friend of mine saying they heard Cupito had decided not to pursue the NFL and I literally burst out laughing, saying something like I don't think he really had to choose. Now I kind of wonder if he had a better shot making a practice squad or NFL Europe (I think that was still around then?) than I thought.

With Weber, I remember him being pretty good between the 20's and being awful in the red zone. I'd love to see if that was as accurate as I remember.

Also, these calculations can't be accurate anyway because they show Leidner was consistently an above average QB... :)

Cupito gets overlooked because of the running game we had but he was a really good QB. He couldn't run but he was extremely smart and accurate. He knew he was a fringe NFL guy (decent hight, really skinny) and decided not to pursue it because he had a wife and kid and wanted to get on with real life as opposed to chasing a dream and uprooting his family. I absolutely think he could have at minimum made a practice squad and possibly an active roster as a backup but he decided to walk away from the game.

Easily one of my favorite players during my time there.
 

He's late on a lot of throws. That's something you would think could improve with experience. I don't think his accuracy is horrid by any means.

I just don't know. Accuracy is there ... and then not. Granted everyone has a bit of that but I just can't say much about that.

The rest, yeah I just don't have a lot of faith Croft can make the leap to being serviceable. At the same time nothing would make me happier to be proven wrong and have him turn into the next Joe Young.
 

I added it up and this means our average QBR ranking over the last 13 years has been 64th.

Put simply, with the exception of 2005 and 2006 where the defense let us down, poor quarterback play year after year is the main reason this program has not taken the next step forward.

We also haven't had very QB friendly coaching staffs here the past 20+ years.
 




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