Chances of Gophers winning this Saturday?

Where would you put Gophers chances of winning this Saturday?

  • 10%

    Votes: 12 12.0%

  • 20%

    Votes: 18 18.0%

  • 30%

    Votes: 26 26.0%

  • 40%

    Votes: 21 21.0%

  • 50% and above

    Votes: 23 23.0%
  • Total voters
    100
  • Poll closed .
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Some Day...Maybe

Some Day...Maybe

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After Purdue and Illinois, I say 30%. My confidence in this team is at an all time low. If Winfield came back healthy I think it would make a big difference. Our offense needs to make a huge improvement overnight.
 

50/50. Run the ball with the 3-headed monster. Then stop Wadley.
 


What do these percentages even mean? It's 50-50 in every game, all the time.
 



West Fargo Gopher Fan said:
40%. Idk why but I have a feeling this game will be close and we will have a chance.
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PJ coaches to keep the score close. (ball possession, few penalties, no turnovers, punting inside the 20, etc) Until we get better offensively, that's a good thing. One of these Saturdays you'd think we'd look real good on offense with some new wrinkles. Hopeful Illinois wasn't the finale to unveiling our new offensive fireworks scheme.

Iowa plays well at home. They have played better teams. They handled Illinois much more easily than we did. But, I think we'll compete! Hopefully, we find a way to win, however ugly.
 

Offensive time of possession percentage=percentage chance of winning game
 

I can't explain why, but I have a really good feeling about Saturday. I just feel this team is going to show up for this game. I give us 75% chance of getting Floyd back!


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Spoofin said:
I can't explain why, but I have a really good feeling about Saturday. I just feel this team is going to show up for this game. I give us 75% chance of getting Floyd back!


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My guess is that your feeling diminishes quickly after the opening kick off.
 

Spoofin said:
I can't explain why, but I have a really good feeling about Saturday. I just feel this team is going to show up for this game. I give us 75% chance of getting Floyd back!


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I didn't want to say it.

Even with bad QB play, we have scored points. If Croft can be "okay" and get us a throwing TD and no more than one INT, I would think we would do okay.
Defensively, we aren't what we were last year, but we're not horrible yet, and Iowa isn't scoring points. (of course, this could mean Iowa runs off 55 again), but to look at things from a reasonable point of view, I don't think Hawkeye fans would be shocked if we win a 14-10 game against them.

With that said, I voted 30% chance.
 


I'd say 30% if the game was at home. I went with 20%.

Iowa isn't very good. Their game with Illinois was tight through 3 quarters, and I believe Illinois actually outgained them. They also got about as many yards against MSU as the Gophers mustered before that last drive by Croft. That said, I think Iowa is better than MN and has an advantage in line play. They obviously run the ball extremely well and MN has struggled to stop the run in B1G play. I do expect it to be a fairly close game, but I don't give MN much of a shot on the road.

Hope I'm wrong.
 



This is not a great Iowa team. Their strength is their defense and statistically they are not quite as good as MSU (22nd vs 3rd per S&P+).

Call me crazy, but if Croft can restrain himself from trying to be a gunslinger and force balls we have a pretty good shot in this one. I don't have a great handle on what we're going to see on offense. I think Fleck senses his year zero talk isn't getting him anywhere with the fanbase, and really wants to win this game. Will we see some bullets on offense? What does PJ have up his fashionable sleeves? It will be tough to score more than 20-24 or so but how many points do we really need? That takes us to our defense vs their offense.

Their offense is nothing special. They are struggling to run the ball, by Iowa standards. Can we cover their tight end Fant? How many screens will see? (a lot). Their QB doesn't make many mistakes. It will be interesting to see how we play them on defense. Attack or lay back. Harris is getting broken in. Ayinde is blooming before our eyes. Duke hasn't targeted anyone. Handey-Holley has seen the elephant. Umlor is the type of dirtbag we need on defense. Celestin is playing inspired.

With so many unknowns on offense...75% if MSU Croft shows up. 0% if Illinois Croft shows. They will score a few points, I'm going to say 17-20 - can we protect the ball and get to 22-24 points? Let's go!
 

grumps said:
I didn't want to say it.

Even with bad QB play, we have scored points. If Croft can be "okay" and get us a throwing TD and no more than one INT, I would think we would do okay.
Defensively, we aren't what we were last year, but we're not horrible yet, and Iowa isn't scoring points. (of course, this could mean Iowa runs off 55 again), but to look at things from a reasonable point of view, I don't think Hawkeye fans would be shocked if we win a 14-10 game against them.

With that said, I voted 30% chance.
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I also voted 30% and I agree that Iowa fans wouldn't be shocked if we won 14-10. I agree that they likely won't score that much but I could see us scoring even less.
 


Coming off a loss to Northwestern, playing under the lights before a capacity crowd in a rivalry game, Iowa will blow the Gophers out in the first half. Seriously doubt the Gophers will make up the difference in the second half. We probably have a better chance (small one) against Michigan than Iowa.
 

For whatever reasons playing in Iowa City is a historically tough nut for our beloved Gophers.

That said the Hawks playing at TCF has not been the same for them...we have been able to either dominate or outplay them...and that has been fun to watch.

The percentages say we are due. I went with 30%. A fair portion of Hawk Nation thinks this year's team has given up. If that team shows up, then indeed that 30% looks pretty darn good.

Expecting a loss but would certainly love to see a win. Haven't saved a W for the long-term at home on the DVR for some time. It would be great to get one worth saving for a few years now.
 

BilldGopher said:
For whatever reasons playing in Iowa City is a historically tough nut for our beloved Gophers.

That said the Hawks playing at TCF has not been the same for them...we have been able to either dominate or outplay them...and that has been fun to watch.

The percentages say we are due. I went with 30%. A fair portion of Hawk Nation thinks this year's team has given up. If that team shows up, then indeed that 30% looks pretty darn good.

Expecting a loss but would certainly love to see a win. Haven't saved a W for the long-term at home on the DVR for some time. It would be great to get one worth saving for a few years now.
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Injuries and huge roster holes resulting from the transition (namely, DE) have resulted in some major weaknesses for our team that aren’t fixable any time this season. Iowa is nothing more than a mediocre team, but Im not sure I’d even call us mediocre right now, and they will be playing at home in front of a full or mostly full house at night.

Our chances of winning are slim, especially since our biggest weakness aligns with the one and perhaps only thing iowa can do competently (run the ball off tackle).
 


40% but with a chance at 50% if they put us on the sunnier sideline.
 


Pompous Elitist said:
This is not a great Iowa team. Their strength is their defense and statistically they are not quite as good as MSU (22nd vs 3rd per S&P+).

Call me crazy, but if Croft can restrain himself from trying to be a gunslinger and force balls we have a pretty good shot in this one. I don't have a great handle on what we're going to see on offense. I think Fleck senses his year zero talk isn't getting him anywhere with the fanbase, and really wants to win this game. Will we see some bullets on offense? What does PJ have up his fashionable sleeves? It will be tough to score more than 20-24 or so but how many points do we really need? That takes us to our defense vs their offense.

Their offense is nothing special. They are struggling to run the ball, by Iowa standards. Can we cover their tight end Fant? How many screens will see? (a lot). Their QB doesn't make many mistakes. It will be interesting to see how we play them on defense. Attack or lay back. Harris is getting broken in. Ayinde is blooming before our eyes. Duke hasn't targeted anyone. Handey-Holley has seen the elephant. Umlor is the type of dirtbag we need on defense. Celestin is playing inspired.

With so many unknowns on offense...75% if MSU Croft shows up. 0% if Illinois Croft shows. They will score a few points, I'm going to say 17-20 - can we protect the ball and get to 22-24 points? Let's go!
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Yeah, if Gophs even get a Croft in the middle of those I think it's a W. Two pretty bad offenses and two top 25 defenses. I went with 24-17 Gophs and that might be high for both teams. Comes down to T/Os, TOP, and team with the better defense tomorrow. Of course I give the Gophs the edge in all three.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
Coming off a loss to Northwestern, playing under the lights before a capacity crowd in a rivalry game, Iowa will blow the Gophers out in the first half. Seriously doubt the Gophers will make up the difference in the second half. We probably have a better chance (small one) against Michigan than Iowa.
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Iowa may very well win the game because they are tough to beat at home but this is not an Iowa team that looks built to blow people out. I would expect a close game and I would echo the sentiment that if Croft can avoid the costly picks we have a shot to be in this one.
 

We needed the divine interception to beat the Illini. I suspect we will need more than that.
 

It's very possible that we're the second worst team in the B1G this year.... on the other hand we know we're capable of being better and Iowa can lay eggs randomly.... but it's also in Iowa so... not likely.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
It's very possible that we're the second worst team in the B1G this year.... on the other hand we know we're capable of being better and Iowa can lay eggs randomly.... but it's also in Iowa so... not likely.
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I honestly don't think there is much separation in the Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana tier and I also don't think that group is far behind the Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and maybe even Michigan State group. Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State have put some distance between themselves and the rest though I am not sold that Wisconsin is all that dominant. Best in the division but don't really see them as a realistic title contender at this point.

Ohio State vs. Penn State this weekend will be really interesting. Outside of the egg they laid against Oklahoma, Ohio State's offense has been unreal and Penn State has looked really strong as well. I would say the winner of that game is the clear cut favorite to win the conference this season.

Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin have put some separation between themselves and everyone else.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I honestly don't think there is much separation in the Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana tier and I also don't think that group is far behind the Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and maybe even Michigan State group. Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State have put some distance between themselves and the rest though I am not sold that Wisconsin is all that dominant. Best in the division but don't really see them as a realistic title contender at this point.

Ohio State vs. Penn State this weekend will be really interesting. Outside of the egg they laid against Oklahoma, Ohio State's offense has been unreal and Penn State has looked really strong as well. I would say the winner of that game is the clear cut favorite to win the conference this season.

Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin have put some separation between themselves and everyone else.
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I agree with your theory on separation.... it's just that we lost to all those teams but one so far so ... 2nd worst possibility it is.
 

West Fargo Gopher Fan said:
Thats not true or we would have had the axe 5 times in the last 10 years. :p
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Not necessarily. You're applying the gambler's fallacy. Every game can individually be 50/50, but you can still lose 10 in a row. Past results do not influence the outcome of the next instance (strictly talking about probability)

Source: My horrible gambling record in Vegas.
 

Ski U Master said:
Not necessarily. You're applying the gambler's fallacy. Every game can individually be 50/50, but you can still lose 10 in a row. Past results do not influence the outcome of the next instance (strictly talking about probability)

Source: My horrible gambling record in Vegas.
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But the number board thing says 5 hasn't come up yet.....
 

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