Chances of Gophers winning this Saturday?

Ski U Master · Oct 27, 2017

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
But the number board thing says 5 hasn't come up yet.....

If it hasn't been up in a while it's time to go all-in... it's due, right?

Spoofin · Oct 27, 2017

Ski U Master said:
Not necessarily. You're applying the gambler's fallacy. Every game can individually be 50/50, but you can still lose 10 in a row. Past results do not influence the outcome of the next instance (strictly talking about probability)

Source: My horrible gambling record in Vegas.

50% chance each time - yes, but the probability is like .1% to happen 10-times in a row.

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Taji34 · Oct 27, 2017

Spoofin said:
50% chance each time - yes, but the probability is like .1% to happen 10-times in a row.

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Except its not that simple....

EDIT: If I flip a coin 9 times and it lands on heads 9 times, that doesn't affect the 10th flip. Yes, flipping 10 coins and having them all land on heads is very unlikely, but it bears no effect on the actual outcome and is thus irrelevant.

Spoofin · Oct 27, 2017

Taji34 said:
Except its not that simple....

Aren't we discussing if it was - like a coin flip?

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Taji34 · Oct 27, 2017

Spoofin said:
Aren't we discussing if it was - like a coin flip?

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We are, yes, see my edit. Still not as simple as you put it. Just because something has a .1% chance of happening doesn't affect anything while its happening.

Spoofin · Oct 27, 2017

Taji34 said:
We are, yes, see my edit. Still not as simple as you put it. Just because something has a .1% chance of happening doesn't affect anything while its happening.

As I said, each flip has a 50% chance - but the probability of the same result 10 consecutive times is like .1%.

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Taji34 · Oct 27, 2017

Spoofin said:
As I said, each flip has a 50% chance - but the probability of the same result 10 consecutive times is like .1%.

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Right, but when you are 9 losses in with one game to go, that statistic is irrelevant to the current situation, so why bring it up?

A_Slab_of_Bacon · Oct 27, 2017

Spoofin said:
As I said, each flip has a 50% chance - but the probability of the same result 10 consecutive times is like .1%.

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Wouldn't that be the same probability for any number combination in X times?

Spoofin · Oct 27, 2017

Taji34 said:
Right, but when you are 9 losses in with one game to go, that statistic is irrelevant to the current situation, so why bring it up?

Why? Because we weren't talking about the 10th game in some scenario where something else happened 9 times. Only you are for some completely random reason. We were talking about probability of winning 10 straight based on highway's comment that every game is 50/50 as someone said if it was both teams would have won 5 and someone else said not necessarily true. Follow along please.

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Spoofin · Oct 27, 2017

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Wouldn't that be the same probability for any number combination in X times?

Same probability for each sequence, but some scenarios (I.e. 5 wins each) can happen with more than 1 sequence. Some can't.

Also, each flip is still 50/50 Taj.

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Taji34 · Oct 27, 2017

Spoofin said:
Why? Because we weren't talking about the 10th game in some scenario where something else happened 9 times. Only you are for some completely random reason. We were talking about probability of winning 10 straight based on highway's comment that every game is 50/50 as someone said if it was both teams would have won 5 and someone else said not necessarily true. Follow along please.

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But the whole thing that brought this up was someone saying if every game was 50/50 we'd have won the axe a few times. But instead Wisconsin has won 13 straight. So it is related, sure them winning 13 straight was very unlikely, but that statistic is irrelevant at this point.

highwayman · Oct 27, 2017

West Fargo Gopher Fan said:
Thats not true or we would have had the axe 5 times in the last 10 years.

Yes but it's still 50-50 this year. Like every game.

grumps · Oct 27, 2017

If we ask, what are the chances of winning the next ten in a row (or Wisconsin winning the next ten in a row), it's about 1 in 1024.

cjbfbp · Oct 27, 2017

Ski U Master said:
Not necessarily. You're applying the gambler's fallacy. Every game can individually be 50/50, but you can still lose 10 in a row. Past results do not influence the outcome of the next instance (strictly talking about probability)

Source: My horrible gambling record in Vegas.

Yes, but that only applies to random events. Football games aren't random events. You could lose 10 in a row under a binomial distribution with the probability of success on each try being .50 but the likelihood would be very small. On the other hand, the probability of Minnesota losing 10 football games in a row to Alabama would be quite high.

Iceland12 · Oct 27, 2017

If the Croft from the MSU game shows-up give them a 67% chance of winning. If the Croft from last Saturday shows-up give them a 22% of bringing Floyd back where he belongs.

jrock · Oct 27, 2017

Brooks for 3, Smith for 4, McCrary for 3. First down. Smith for 3, McCrary for 4, Brooks for 6. First down. McCrary for 5, Brooks for 4, Johnson for 56. Touchdown! Rinse and repeat.

Ski U Master · Oct 27, 2017

cjbfbp said:
Yes, but that only applies to random events. Football games aren't random events. You could lose 10 in a row under a binomial distribution with the probability of success on each try being .50 but the likelihood would be very small. On the other hand, the probability of Minnesota losing 10 football games in a row to Alabama would be quite high.

Correct that's why I put the disclaimer that I was talking only about probability. Football is not straight probability.

WorkingMyTailOff · Oct 27, 2017

jrock said:
Brooks for 3, Smith for 4, McCrary for 3. First down. Smith for 3, McCrary for 4, Brooks for 6. First down. McCrary for 5, Brooks for 4, Johnson for 56. Touchdown! Rinse and repeat.

JRock for OC!

Section2 · Oct 27, 2017

jrock said:
Brooks for 3, Smith for 4, McCrary for 3. First down. Smith for 3, McCrary for 4, Brooks for 6. First down. McCrary for 5, Brooks for 4, Johnson for 56. Touchdown! Rinse and repeat.

We will lose if our starting field position is our 12 all game imo.

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HoustonTXGopher · Oct 27, 2017

It's not a 50/50 chance in Vegas for sure. That's why they put handicapped lines on each game. I could get behind the theory that with the Vegas Line there is a 50/50 chance each year, i.e. against the spread.

jrock · Oct 27, 2017

Section2 said:
We will lose if our starting field position is our 12 all game imo.

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Haha. You would add that up. I was just hoping it was under a hundred.

And yes, you are correct, we will.

Hollinsanity · Oct 27, 2017

Taji34 said:
But the whole thing that brought this up was someone saying if every game was 50/50 we'd have won the axe a few times. But instead Wisconsin has won 13 straight. So it is related, sure them winning 13 straight was very unlikely, but that statistic is irrelevant at this point.

Nothing better than settling in on a Friday night and reading the entirety of a back and forth argument about the semantics of dependent vs. independent events!

Can my night get any crazier? I’d say no.

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dpodoll68 · Oct 27, 2017

raindog said:
We needed the divine interception to beat the Illini. I suspect we will need more than that.

Yeah, that's not accurate.

dpodoll68 · Oct 27, 2017

highwayman said:
Yes but it's still 50-50 this year. Like every game.

Also not accurate, no matter how many times you say it.

cjbfbp · Oct 28, 2017

Iceland12 said:
If the Croft from the MSU game shows-up give them a 67% chance of winning. If the Croft from last Saturday shows-up give them a 22% of bringing Floyd back where he belongs.

OK, so what is the chance of each of those Croft states: 50%? Is there a middle ground like Croft isn't as good as the Michigan State game but isn't as terrible as in the Illinois game?

If the chance of those states is 50/50, then I think our chance of winning is (.67) x (.50) + (.22) x (.50) = .445 o 44.5% which seems a bit high to me. Somebody correct my math if I'm wrong. It's been a long time since I studied such things.

Thomasthetank · Oct 28, 2017

grumps said:
I didn't want to say it.

Even with bad QB play, we have scored points. If Croft can be "okay" and get us a throwing TD and no more than one INT, I would think we would do okay.
Defensively, we aren't what we were last year, but we're not horrible yet, and Iowa isn't scoring points. (of course, this could mean Iowa runs off 55 again), but to look at things from a reasonable point of view, I don't think Hawkeye fans would be shocked if we win a 14-10 game against them.

With that said, I voted 30% chance.

To me, I see this game result not having any relation to croft. I see the main difference in the game being Mn run defense.if we can't set the edge more than not, we will lose by 20.

Therefore, Iowa play action to the TE is going to be the main plays of the game. MN will probably have to bring 8 in the box so defending P.A. is vital

highwayman · Oct 28, 2017

dpodoll68 said:
Also not accurate, no matter how many times you say it.

Still.

50%

50%

Every game.

All day.

Every day.

Elementary school math would teach you that.

No matter how

many

times

you

deny

it.

Pompous Elitist · Oct 28, 2017

highwayman said:
Still.

50%

50%

Every game.

All day.

Every day.

Elementary school math would teach you that.

No matter how

many

times

you

deny

it.

gopherdudepart2 · Oct 28, 2017

I agree

HoustonTXGopher said:
My guess is that your feeling diminishes quickly after the opening kick off.

Gophers never play well in Iowa City. Not optimistic about this game.

cjbfbp · Oct 28, 2017

highwayman said:
Still.

50%

50%

Every game.

All day.

Every day.

Elementary school math would teach you that.

No matter how

many

times

you

deny

it.

Again, those rules apply to RANDOM EVENTS. A coin toss is a random event. A roll of dice is a random event. Games between football teams of different levels of abilities ARE NOT RANDOM EVENTS. Apparently, when you learned your rules of probability, you skipped the assumptions that go along with the math.

Chances of Gophers winning this Saturday?

Where would you put Gophers chances of winning this Saturday?

10%

20%

30%

40%

50% and above

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