Dupree McBrayer the X factor

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Going in to the off-season, I felt like 3 Gopher players with the most room for growth were: Amir Coffey, Eric Curry, and Dupree McBrayer. All 3 possess physical and/or athletic traits that enable them to have higher ceilings than many of the other returning players on the roster. The Curry injury was such a brutal blow not just because of what he provided on the court last season, but what was possible for him in year 2. When Pitino was asked in the Summer about who looked to be improved on his squad, he was always quick with two names: Eric Curry and Jordan Murphy. Occasionally Coach Pitino would also mention Amir Coffey and note how his time at the NBA camp had helped him. I was always left wondering? What about Dupree McBrayer? Here was a guy who had some length and athleticism at the 2 and might be our best returning threat from 3. He had taken a step from Freshman year to Sophomore year, why aren't we hearing about Dupree making a leap? Unfortunately we would find out why there was no mention of Dupree: he'd been dealing with a stress reaction in his leg and hadn't been able to be on the court most/all of the Summer. As of last week, news still seemed to point towards Dupree still being limited in practice.

Lets take a look at Dupree and his performance as a Gopher.

FR SO
FG% 32.6 44.6
3FG% 25 40.9
eFG% 37 50.9
TS% 44.1 55.1

Dupree significantly improved his shooting by all measures as Sophomore and the Gophers badly needed it

FR SO
AST 2.5 2.7
TO 1.2 1.5
Ast % 21.8 19.5
TO % 15.5 13.1
STL 1 0.9
STL % 2.6 1.7

Dupree was unfortunately pretty stagnant with his floor game. His assists and assist percentage dipped slightly, though the decrease in his turnover percentage was a nice sign. I think Pitino can and should expect Dupree to grab more than a steal a game and his steal % actually decreased pretty significantly as a Sophomore. For what it's worth, Dupree also experienced a significant decline in rebounding but I am not sure how important that is for a guard and he was playing heavy minutes with Reggie Lynch/Jordan Murphy/Eric Curry as opposed to Bakary Konate/Joey King/Jordan Murphy.

So we can see that the jump Dupree made from his Freshman year to his Sophomore year was largely based on an improved shooting touch and his ability to cut down on his turnover percentage. As most who watched the Gophers can tell you though, Dupree's improvement was very volatile and it certainly wasn't a smooth ride. I'd like to illustrate by dividing his last 14 games played in to 2 halves: 1st 7 and 2nd 7

1st 7 2nd 7
PPG 6.6 13.4
RPG 1.3 2.3
APG 2 2.9
TOPG 2 1.3
SPG 0.6 0.6

FG% 31.1 50.8
3FG% 30 52.2
Ast/TO 1 2.23


As you can see from the traditional box score stats above, Dupree was much better in all categories in his final 7 games of the season compared to the 7 games that preceded them. For 7 games from 1/25 to 2/19 Dupree was a pretty rough player to have to count on giving the team just 6.6 pts on 31.1% from the field and an assist to turnover rate of just 1/1. For the 7 games from 2/22 through the end of the season Dupree was a very efficient player giving the team 13.4 pts on 50.8 from the field and an assist to turnover rate of 2.23/1. The most striking number of all is probably the 3fg % which Dupree increased from 30% to a scorching 52.2% over his last 7 games.

Beyond the stats, the eye tests tells you a lot about Dupree McBrayer. At times during the year, Dupree would pass up open 3 point attempts to drive in to a contested 2 point attempt. Other times he would drive off that open 3 and attempt to create. You can see how the lack of confidence in his perimeter shot lead to a lower FG% (taking tougher shots off the dribble) and a higher TO % (not taking the shot when open and trying to create something that wasn't there). When Dupree would just take what was there instead of getting in his own head, he was a much more effective player both shooting the ball and handling the ball. Given that the Gophers graduated their best threat from 3 in Akeem Springs, they will be counting on Dupree to knock down shots from distance this year as his 40.9% clip as a Sophomore and that 52.2% over his last 7 games certainly suggests he will be able to do. The other aspect of Dupree's game that was really beneficial for the Gophers was his ability to attack in transition an score or create a foul and get to the line. The only two Gophers that showed a consistent ability to finish in transition (especially against multiple defenders) were Dupree and Amir Coffey. For a team that could get stagnant in half court sets, those transition points were crucial.

So what can we expect from Dupree in his Junior season? Can he make another jump despite his off-season being hindered by injury? If he can we could be looking at a guy who averages around 14 PPG while shooting ~46 from the field and ~43 from 3 while also continuing to improve his floor game with another year of experience. That type of season would get Dupree in the conversation for an All-B1G spot (honorable mention for sure) and more importantly put the Gophers in position for a second straight top 4 conference finish. If he can't make another jump? The silver lining is that the Gophers managed to go 5-2 during that 7 game struggle for Dupree, but they will definitely need someone else to step up as a consistent threat behind the arc or we will see a lot more MTSU games where teams go zone and the Gophers spend a night bricking open looks.
 

Going in to the off-season, I felt like 3 Gopher players with the most room for growth were: Amir Coffey, Eric Curry, and Dupree McBrayer. Allupree: he'd been dealing with a stress reaction in his leg and hadn't been able to be on the court most/all of the Summer......... to step up as a consistent threat behind the arc or we will see a lot more MTSU games where teams go zone and the Gophers spend a night bricking open looks.

Nice post and a lot of work went into it. In my view, it is a question of did McBrayer improve because he was a year older and he improved his game or did improvement around him bring more out of him? Obviously the answer is both but I want to believe it is much more heavily the later. With more general improvement on the roster this year in my estimation we can expect to see his game improve quite a bit more. With the seasoned veterans at the other positions and a couple of exciting freshman coming in to push him as well he is standing in a good place.
 

Going in to the off-season, I felt like 3 Gopher players with the most room for growth were: Amir Coffey, Eric Curry, and Dupree McBrayer. All 3 possess physical and/or athletic traits that enable them to have higher ceilings than many of the other returning players on the roster. The Curry injury was such a brutal blow not just because of what he provided on the court last season, but what was possible for him in year 2. When Pitino was asked in the Summer about who looked to be improved on his squad, he was always quick with two names: Eric Curry and Jordan Murphy. Occasionally Coach Pitino would also mention Amir Coffey and note how his time at the NBA camp had helped him. I was always left wondering? What about Dupree McBrayer? Here was a guy who had some length and athleticism at the 2 and might be our best returning threat from 3. He had taken a step from Freshman year to Sophomore year, why aren't we hearing about Dupree making a leap? Unfortunately we would find out why there was no mention of Dupree: he'd been dealing with a stress reaction in his leg and hadn't been able to be on the court most/all of the Summer. As of last week, news still seemed to point towards Dupree still being limited in practice.

Lets take a look at Dupree and his performance as a Gopher.

FR SO
FG% 32.6 44.6
3FG% 25 40.9
eFG% 37 50.9
TS% 44.1 55.1

Dupree significantly improved his shooting by all measures as Sophomore and the Gophers badly needed it

FR SO
AST 2.5 2.7
TO 1.2 1.5
Ast % 21.8 19.5
TO % 15.5 13.1
STL 1 0.9
STL % 2.6 1.7

Dupree was unfortunately pretty stagnant with his floor game. His assists and assist percentage dipped slightly, though the decrease in his turnover percentage was a nice sign. I think Pitino can and should expect Dupree to grab more than a steal a game and his steal % actually decreased pretty significantly as a Sophomore. For what it's worth, Dupree also experienced a significant decline in rebounding but I am not sure how important that is for a guard and he was playing heavy minutes with Reggie Lynch/Jordan Murphy/Eric Curry as opposed to Bakary Konate/Joey King/Jordan Murphy.

So we can see that the jump Dupree made from his Freshman year to his Sophomore year was largely based on an improved shooting touch and his ability to cut down on his turnover percentage. As most who watched the Gophers can tell you though, Dupree's improvement was very volatile and it certainly wasn't a smooth ride. I'd like to illustrate by dividing his last 14 games played in to 2 halves: 1st 7 and 2nd 7

1st 7 2nd 7
PPG 6.6 13.4
RPG 1.3 2.3
APG 2 2.9
TOPG 2 1.3
SPG 0.6 0.6

FG% 31.1 50.8
3FG% 30 52.2
Ast/TO 1 2.23


As you can see from the traditional box score stats above, Dupree was much better in all categories in his final 7 games of the season compared to the 7 games that preceded them. For 7 games from 1/25 to 2/19 Dupree was a pretty rough player to have to count on giving the team just 6.6 pts on 31.1% from the field and an assist to turnover rate of just 1/1. For the 7 games from 2/22 through the end of the season Dupree was a very efficient player giving the team 13.4 pts on 50.8 from the field and an assist to turnover rate of 2.23/1. The most striking number of all is probably the 3fg % which Dupree increased from 30% to a scorching 52.2% over his last 7 games.

Beyond the stats, the eye tests tells you a lot about Dupree McBrayer. At times during the year, Dupree would pass up open 3 point attempts to drive in to a contested 2 point attempt. Other times he would drive off that open 3 and attempt to create. You can see how the lack of confidence in his perimeter shot lead to a lower FG% (taking tougher shots off the dribble) and a higher TO % (not taking the shot when open and trying to create something that wasn't there). When Dupree would just take what was there instead of getting in his own head, he was a much more effective player both shooting the ball and handling the ball. Given that the Gophers graduated their best threat from 3 in Akeem Springs, they will be counting on Dupree to knock down shots from distance this year as his 40.9% clip as a Sophomore and that 52.2% over his last 7 games certainly suggests he will be able to do. The other aspect of Dupree's game that was really beneficial for the Gophers was his ability to attack in transition an score or create a foul and get to the line. The only two Gophers that showed a consistent ability to finish in transition (especially against multiple defenders) were Dupree and Amir Coffey. For a team that could get stagnant in half court sets, those transition points were crucial.

So what can we expect from Dupree in his Junior season? Can he make another jump despite his off-season being hindered by injury? If he can we could be looking at a guy who averages around 14 PPG while shooting ~46 from the field and ~43 from 3 while also continuing to improve his floor game with another year of experience. That type of season would get Dupree in the conversation for an All-B1G spot (honorable mention for sure) and more importantly put the Gophers in position for a second straight top 4 conference finish. If he can't make another jump? The silver lining is that the Gophers managed to go 5-2 during that 7 game struggle for Dupree, but they will definitely need someone else to step up as a consistent threat behind the arc or we will see a lot more MTSU games where teams go zone and the Gophers spend a night bricking open looks.

Thanks for the post, I don't think McBrayer gets enough credit for the improvement he showed last year. Realistically, we need Dupree to be our high volume 3-point shooter this year. He has potential on the defensive end, and his transition game should improve. The other obvious candidate for volume shooting is Harris, but I wonder how ready he'll be on the defensive end. We need you 'Pree!
 

McBrayer

McBrayer did improve a lot. We need his 3pt shooting and defense. I've always been bothered by how little rebounds he gets for as long and athletic he is. But I should concentrate on his strengths.



Thanks for the post, I don't think McBrayer gets enough credit for the improvement he showed last year. Realistically, we need Dupree to be our high volume 3-point shooter this year. He has potential on the defensive end, and his transition game should improve. The other obvious candidate for volume shooting is Harris, but I wonder how ready he'll be on the defensive end. We need you 'Pree!
 

I really like Dupree and he did make huge strides from FR to SO. Shooting 40% from 3 most notably. He may not be the strongest finisher, but he does find a way to get to the line. And shot a very respectable 74% at the line last year. My biggest pet peeves with him are that he can be a bit careless with the ball at times and sometimes his shot selection is questionable. We definitely need him to have another solid season.
 


Excellent post--I have to agree with everything you wrote. Thanks for doing the work. I would be curious to know at what point during those two 7-game stretches he became the 6th man (too lazy to look).
 

Probably not in same mold, I think huge X factor will be getting production from Hurt off the bench

I really think if he can improve his foot speed on defense and drain some 3's for us off bench, he could be a factor for gophers. I'm still high on the kid and off season he's been putting the work in. I almost think they should've RS him last year, but there are lots of factors that go into that.....

(not trying to hijack thread, I agree Dupree will be a huge factor for gophers getting to where we want them to go)
 

Probably not in same mold, I think huge X factor will be getting production from Hurt off the bench

I really think if he can improve his foot speed on defense and drain some 3's for us off bench, he could be a factor for gophers. I'm still high on the kid and off season he's been putting the work in. I almost think they should've RS him last year, but there are lots of factors that go into that.....

(not trying to hijack thread, I agree Dupree will be a huge factor for gophers getting to where we want them to go)

Absolutely agree with everything stated about Dupree - thank you for your efforts on the post. Although he was unable to play in Pro-Am games, he did attend and support teammates, so to me that says something about his commitment to teammates and basketball in general. To me, the biggest impact for Dupree this year is the addition of IW. He's never looked like a natural fit at PG and allowing him to be a full time wing player presents a lot of upside. Of course Kevin Dorsey's departure didn't help.

On Hurt - it seemed to me all he needed last year was for a few 3s to drop to gain some confidence (also needed to bulk up to handle physicality of B10 competition). Never seemed to find his stride and it was clear his confidence plummeted as B10 season progressed. Hopefully he's put on some weight and gained some confidence. No reason he can't step in, play some solid defense, grab some rebounds, and knock down the open 3. I'm hopeful things will start going in his favor if he's willing to put in the work which it sounds like he is based on Pitino's commentary.
 







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