Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
- 15
- Points
- 38
Apologies for being late on this one! Been bouncing between Chicago and Dallas for work and haven't found the time to plop numbers into my spreadsheet until this morning. But better late than never, eh?
Our first loss of the season shook things up - but maybe not as much as you might expect. The only game that shifted from "likely W" to "toss up" was Nebraska - and the only games that remain likely losses per the formula are Michigan and Wisconsin. The numbers still like us slightly this weekend in West Lafayette, have us tiny underdogs against MSU, and then big favorites against the Illini.
So, despite feeling pretty crappy after Saturday - a 6-1 start is not out of the question. I wouldn't say it's likely - I'd say the most likely record after seven games will be 5-2 -
but Purdue is going to tell us a lot. Win that and there's a good chance the formulas will like us against MSU again, as the Spartans get Michigan this weekend.
Excited for the maroon and gold to take the field again this weekend! Go Gophers!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State W (Predicted -4.5; Actual -34)
vs Middle Tennessee W (Predicted -14.5; Actual -31)
vs Maryland L (Predicted -11; Actual +7)
@ Purdue -2
vs Michigan State +1.5
vs Illinois -16
@ Iowa +4.5
@ Michigan +13
vs Nebraska -3
@ Northwestern +2.5
vs Wisconsin +12.5
Final record: 6-6 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week One
Week Two
Week Three
Week Four
Week Five
Our first loss of the season shook things up - but maybe not as much as you might expect. The only game that shifted from "likely W" to "toss up" was Nebraska - and the only games that remain likely losses per the formula are Michigan and Wisconsin. The numbers still like us slightly this weekend in West Lafayette, have us tiny underdogs against MSU, and then big favorites against the Illini.
So, despite feeling pretty crappy after Saturday - a 6-1 start is not out of the question. I wouldn't say it's likely - I'd say the most likely record after seven games will be 5-2 -
but Purdue is going to tell us a lot. Win that and there's a good chance the formulas will like us against MSU again, as the Spartans get Michigan this weekend.
Excited for the maroon and gold to take the field again this weekend! Go Gophers!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State W (Predicted -4.5; Actual -34)
vs Middle Tennessee W (Predicted -14.5; Actual -31)
vs Maryland L (Predicted -11; Actual +7)
@ Purdue -2
vs Michigan State +1.5
vs Illinois -16
@ Iowa +4.5
@ Michigan +13
vs Nebraska -3
@ Northwestern +2.5
vs Wisconsin +12.5
Final record: 6-6 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week One
Week Two
Week Three
Week Four
Week Five
