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  1. #16
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    The positive assumptions are based on the notion that tax cuts will prime the economy. Joe Six-Pack gets a tax cut, and buys a new big-screen TV. Fred Corporate Tycoon gets a tax cut, and invests in new equipment or hires new employees.

    And yes, that could happen. But, this could also happen: Joe Six-Pack gets a tax cut, and pays off debt on his credit card. Good for him, but not an economic stimulus. Or Fred Corporate Tycoon gets a tax cut, and puts the money in a tax-free off-shore shelter account.

    It basically comes down to placing a bet on the roulette wheel. If the ball lands in the right slot, you come out ahead. if the ball lands in the wrong slot, you lose. If people do what bga wants, then it's good for the economy. if people don't do what bga wants, not so good for the economy.


  2. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by short ornery norwegian View Post
    The positive assumptions are based on the notion that tax cuts will prime the economy. Joe Six-Pack gets a tax cut, and buys a new big-screen TV. Fred Corporate Tycoon gets a tax cut, and invests in new equipment or hires new employees.

    And yes, that could happen. But, this could also happen: Joe Six-Pack gets a tax cut, and pays off debt on his credit card. Good for him, but not an economic stimulus. Or Fred Corporate Tycoon gets a tax cut, and puts the money in a tax-free off-shore shelter account.

    It basically comes down to placing a bet on the roulette wheel. If the ball lands in the right slot, you come out ahead. if the ball lands in the wrong slot, you lose. If people do what bga wants, then it's good for the economy. if people don't do what bga wants, not so good for the economy.
    The United States economy hinges on what beej wants? Holy sh!t!
    - Respect is the ultimate currency

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ski U Mah Gopher View Post
    Deficits only matter when there's a Democrat in the White House.
    That and GOP math: No matter how large Tax Cut X, it will spur growth of Y% and increase revenues. Period!

  4. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by short ornery norwegian View Post
    The positive assumptions are based on the notion that tax cuts will prime the economy. Joe Six-Pack gets a tax cut, and buys a new big-screen TV. Fred Corporate Tycoon gets a tax cut, and invests in new equipment or hires new employees.

    And yes, that could happen. But, this could also happen: Joe Six-Pack gets a tax cut, and pays off debt on his credit card. Good for him, but not an economic stimulus. Or Fred Corporate Tycoon gets a tax cut, and puts the money in a tax-free off-shore shelter account.

    It basically comes down to placing a bet on the roulette wheel. If the ball lands in the right slot, you come out ahead. if the ball lands in the wrong slot, you lose. If people do what bga wants, then it's good for the economy. if people don't do what bga wants, not so good for the economy.
    Pretty much. People like beej want to destroy the country.

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  5. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by short ornery norwegian View Post
    The positive assumptions are based on the notion that tax cuts will prime the economy. Joe Six-Pack gets a tax cut, and buys a new big-screen TV. Fred Corporate Tycoon gets a tax cut, and invests in new equipment or hires new employees.

    And yes, that could happen. But, this could also happen: Joe Six-Pack gets a tax cut, and pays off debt on his credit card. Good for him, but not an economic stimulus. Or Fred Corporate Tycoon gets a tax cut, and puts the money in a tax-free off-shore shelter account.

    It basically comes down to placing a bet on the roulette wheel. If the ball lands in the right slot, you come out ahead. if the ball lands in the wrong slot, you lose. If people do what bga wants, then it's good for the economy. if people don't do what bga wants, not so good for the economy.
    If the growth of the economy came down to a wager of any kind, I would definitely say that I would feel INCREDIBLY comfortable betting it all on Joe Six-Pack blowing a newfound couple of dollars on a frivolous luxury item. There isn't a safer bet out there, not even close. Joe Six-Pack has been doing just that for the better part of a century, only a fool would think he would act differently now.
    - Respect is the ultimate currency

  6. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by howeda7 View Post
    That and GOP math: No matter how large Tax Cut X, it will spur growth of Y% and increase revenues. Period!
    Strawman alert.

  7. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by bga1 View Post
    Strawman alert.
    Are there any independent analyses, even from conservative think tanks, that show that any Trump tax plan proposed to-date will stimulate the economy enough to be deficit-neutral?

    I remind you of:

    https://taxfoundation.org/details-an...tax-plan-2016/

    On a static basis, the plan would reduce federal revenue by between $4.4 trillion and $5.9 trillion, depending on policy assumptions about business tax rates. However, due to the larger economy and the significantly broader tax base, the plan would reduce revenue by between $2.6 trillion and $3.9 trillion over the next decade, depending on those same policy assumptions. In all cases, it would increase after-tax incomes for all income groups, but reduce revenue to the Treasury.
    The President of the Tax Foundation, Scott Hodge, designed the tax aspects of Gingrich's Contract with A

    https://taxfoundation.org/staff/scott-hodge/

  8. #23

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    The deficit is going to explode under the massive tax cut scenario...we'll likely see $1T+ deficits again, and those deficits will last a few years minimum, regardless of proposed small improvements growth rate.

    At the next point the economy goes to hell, we'll be in far, far worse shape in terms of recovery-vs.-deficit, given our margins for ability to cut taxes will be far smaller.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by bga1 View Post
    First off- I am not a big fan of the Trump proposal, but it is probably as far as we can get in one step. I think it is an incremental step in the right direction, but not nearly enough. DH is correct, there is not enough meat on the bone to out hard analysis of what would happen. What we do have is common sense. What is likely to happen if we allow corporate money to come back from overseas without repatriation tax? A ton of money will come home and the investments here will employ more people. What would happen if the corporate tax rates are cut? Trump is saying 20%. It should be far lower. What would happen? A huge jobs and investment boom.

    As I said above, you have to get more people employed and less people who are taking from government to cure the problem. If you look at simple percentages you simply cannot get to revenue neutral without screwing the whole tax cut idea up. But if you look at building a booming economy- you have a great chance to fix some things in the longer term. In fact, outside of a severe crash where government freebees are taken away in one fell swoop- there is no way to end the entitlement mess without first inspiring people to be part of a growing economy. Everyone is looking for a government solution. The government is who got us in the mess in the first place, promising more than we can deliver long term. This has to be a market driven solution.

    Steve Moore, one of Trump's advisors cites this CBO advice:The biggest deficit we need to urgently fix is our growth deficit. We must pump up our GDP growth from the anemic 1 percent rate of Mr. Obama’s last six months up to a sustained 4 percent for five to 10 years.
    Here are some amazing statistics from the Congressional Budget Office. If you raise the growth rate by one percentage point over one decade it reduces the budget deficit by $3 trillion. If Mr. Trump can juice growth from 2 to 4 percent then poof, federal borrowing disappears by $6 trillion.
    Liberal economists pout that this kind of growth is impossible for America, but that’s what people said in the miserable 1970s, but Mr. Reagan (and JFK before him) proved that with the right policy incentives that get government off the back of business, a new era of prosperity is just around the corner.


    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...ate-cuts-work/

    The problem with the CBO is not that they cannot due mathematics, it just that the CBO doesn't believe in the idea that a market driven lower tax economy could push 4% growth- so they don't project it in their models. Rather, the CBO produces static projections.
    You realize that your taxes will go up with this plan (as will mine), right?

  10. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Section2 View Post
    Deficits only matter when there's a Republican in the white house.
    I just want to be clear on this. I don't care that much about deficits. They're worth keeping in mind, but they're not worth shutting down the government over and they're not the simple rubric by which all proposals should be judged.

    If Trump wants to give tax cuts to a bunch of rich people, I'm OK with it as long as:
    - Taxes go down for everyone
    - It's not used to justify later cuts for programs that help poor kids

    But we were told repeatedly on this board that Trump was going to fix the deficit problem and there really hasn't been any indication that is true.

  11. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by justthefacts View Post
    I just want to be clear on this. I don't care that much about deficits. They're worth keeping in mind, but they're not worth shutting down the government over and they're not the simple rubric by which all proposals should be judged.

    If Trump wants to give tax cuts to a bunch of rich people, I'm OK with it as long as:
    - Taxes go down for everyone
    - It's not used to justify later cuts for programs that help poor kids

    But we were told repeatedly on this board that Trump was going to fix the deficit problem and there really hasn't been any indication that is true.
    The thing is, after this time, when the massive tax cuts AGAIN accelerate the deficit and the debt, what excuse will the Republicans use? They're 2-for-2 in exploding the debt through tax cuts; they will be 3-for-3.

    That excuse? We may have just seen it yesterday: Trump's deficit might be blamed on Puerto Rico.

    Whatever the excuse, the knuckle draggers will eat up every word of that B.S. and disregard the simple fact that tax cuts incur negative budget balances, which accumulate year upon year until/IF the return on investment ever pays off to recover the lost revenues.

  12. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by justthefacts View Post
    I just want to be clear on this. I don't care that much about deficits. They're worth keeping in mind, but they're not worth shutting down the government over and they're not the simple rubric by which all proposals should be judged.

    If Trump wants to give tax cuts to a bunch of rich people, I'm OK with it as long as:
    - Taxes go down for everyone
    - It's not used to justify later cuts for programs that help poor kids

    But we were told repeatedly on this board that Trump was going to fix the deficit problem and there really hasn't been any indication that is true.
    I've never heard anyone argue he would fix the deficit. Maybe it's been said, but it's not some running argument.
    Disagree with you on deficit of course but appreciate honesty.


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  13. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by Section2 View Post
    I've never heard anyone argue he would fix the deficit. Maybe it's been said, but it's not some running argument.
    Disagree with you on deficit of course but appreciate honesty.


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    Not anyone, huh. Really? This guy said so. AND he said he'd fix the debt, too.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...n-eight-years/

  14. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by cncmin View Post
    Not anyone, huh. Really? This guy said so. AND he said he'd fix the debt, too.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...n-eight-years/
    lol, you are such an embarrassment. "We were told HERE". Not from him


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  15. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Section2 View Post
    I've never heard anyone argue he would fix the deficit. Maybe it's been said, but it's not some running argument.
    Disagree with you on deficit of course but appreciate honesty.


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    bga1: http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boa...28#post1313428

    "Trump will improve things and get the economy rolling again- this will go a long way towards cutting into those deficits. "
    "To fire up the economy will require changes in the tax code which will reduce revenues in the short term and increase them in the long term."

    This entire thread is bga1 and diehard claiming that a study that found Trump's tax plan would increase deficits is biased:

    http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/boa...d-the-question

    Granted, diehard does it by calling other people stupid when he disagrees with them, but that's the point of his argument.

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