Sagarin Predictions: Week 4

Gopher07

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Always more fun to update these after a win than after a loss.

The good news is, we're trending in the right direction. From 5-7 preseason to 8-4 now, the formula has liked the Gophers' first three performances much more than our opponents. Somewhat surprisingly however, not much overall movement in the numbers following this weekend's 34-3 thrashing of Middle Tennessee. The final spread was more than double the predicted, but things for the rest of the season didn't move too much - with a few exceptions.

We're now nearly touchdown favorites at home against Nebraska (after being one-point favorites last week), MSU has flipped in our favor, and Illinois has moved into complete-Gopher-blowout territory. All that has the predicted final record at 8-4, which seems reasonable if you believe we win two of @ Purdue, vs MSU, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern and sweep the other likely wins and toss ups. Still, no games moved from toss ups to likely wins this week - the vast majority of our schedule from here on out remains within seven points either way.

One more interesting note - that Purdue line continues to creep down. From -7 preseason, to -3, and now to -2.5. While the Gophers have benefited in the formula, Purdue has benefited even more. That game is going to be very difficult.

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State W (Predicted -4.5; Actual -34)
vs Middle Tennessee W (Predicted -14.5; Actual -31)
vs Maryland -6.5
@ Purdue -2.5
vs Michigan State -1.5
vs Illinois -17
@ Iowa +1
@ Michigan +11
vs Nebraska -6.5
@ Northwestern +1
vs Wisconsin +10

Final record: 8-4 (5-4)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week One
Week Two
Week Three
 

Michigan and Wisconsin are creeping so close to toss-up territory! Keeping my fingers crossed that they do.

EDIT: Do we know the spread in the Michigan vs Purdue game? Purdue will be looking to make a statement, but Michigan will be looking for a strong Big10 open to try to cement a claim for the East Division title early.
 


Michigan and Wisconsin, the last two challenges on the schedule. Could be a great year or could be sh!t happens. This is not a 5 or 6 win team.
 



Not so fast. Gophs will easily lose all of their away games and might get beat by a very surprising Twerp team. Obviously none of this matters because the Gophs have not played anyone respectable yet and, well, we all know that the inevitable is coming when maroon and gold has to play the Badgers. Michigan, Iowa and the Badgers will destroy the dream.
 

Not so fast. Gophs will easily lose all of their away games and might get beat by a very surprising Twerp team. Obviously none of this matters because the Gophs have not played anyone respectable yet and, well, we all know that the inevitable is coming when maroon and gold has to play the Badgers. Michigan, Iowa and the Badgers will destroy the dream.

Hey Mods, time to boot this troll.
 

Not so fast. Gophs will easily lose all of their away games and might get beat by a very surprising Twerp team. Obviously none of this matters because the Gophs have not played anyone respectable yet and, well, we all know that the inevitable is coming when maroon and gold has to play the Badgers. Michigan, Iowa and the Badgers will destroy the dream.

Will you be at the Wisconsin game? You should go. We win on a pick six at least that is what I like to dream about.

Go Gophers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

That should move higher by game time. Place bets now.


Purdue beat an awful Missouri team but Michigan hasn't won by less than 10 including @Florida

Michigan/Florida was a neutral site game, not a true road game, and didn't Florida have a bunch of suspensions?
 



Not so fast. Gophs will easily lose all of their away games and might get beat by a very surprising Twerp team. Obviously none of this matters because the Gophs have not played anyone respectable yet and, well, we all know that the inevitable is coming when maroon and gold has to play the Badgers. Michigan, Iowa and the Badgers will destroy the dream.

Lol Troll with 2 Posts. Please block.
 

Maryland, Purdue, and Michigan State all a look better than folks may have predicted earlier in the year.
 





@ Iowa and @ Northwestern may be the key to whether it's a good season for the Gophers, or something even better.

Let's say for the sake of argument the Gophers win 4 of their remaining 5 homes games. That gives them 7 wins. there are four remaining road games. Win 2 of the 4, that's a 9-win season.

Yes, I understand that a lot of things will have to go the Gophers' way for that to happen. But, if the talent is as good as some of us think, and if Fleck and his staff are as good as some of you think, 9 wins is certainly possible.

And then, we can spend from now until eternity debating whether Claeys' 9-win season was more or less impressive than Fleck's 9-win season.:) Of course, a 9-win season would lead to a bowl game, and a chance at 10 wins.

hey - I know it's a long shot. but sometimes long shots come in. sometime the underdog wins. sometime the nerd gets the girl...........nah, that only happens in the movies. In real life, the jock or the rich guy always gets the girl.
 




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