Sagarin Predictions: Week 3

Good Monday morning!

It's amazing what winning a road game by 34 points (when you're only favored by 4.5) will do to a computer formula. Everything shifted in the Gophers' favor after last weekend, and while it didn't shift us to favorites in many games (with the exception of Nebraska), it did move a lot of things into firm "toss-up" territory.

Notably, games against Northwestern and Iowa - once thought to be likely losses - are now within the seven-point range. Northwestern in particular looks to be much worse than expected after their blowout loss on the road at Duke.

Still, the formula is telling us there is a lot of room for uncertainty here - we're only slightly favored against Maryland, Purdue and Nebraska, and only slight underdogs against MSU, Iowa and Northwestern - meaning we could see anything from four to ten wins and have it be pretty reasonable. That's a pretty wide range, we'll likely end up somewhere in the middle, and of course it will become clearer as more games are played and the formula gets better. But it really speaks to the potential parity within conference this year as the traditional bottom seemingly gets better.

Here's hoping we can outperform the prediction by another 30 points this weekend. Go Gophers!

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State W (Predicted -4.5; Actual -34)
vs Middle Tennessee -14.5
vs Maryland -4
@ Purdue -4
vs Michigan State +2.5
vs Illinois -11.5
@ Iowa +5
@ Michigan +14
vs Nebraska -1
@ Northwestern +1
vs Wisconsin +10

Final record: 7-5 (4-5)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Middle Tennessee, vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week One
Week Two

Betting the Gopher games could turn out to be an insane proposition this year.

I like the -14.5 for this Saturday, but am a bit uneasy as MTSU had a pretty good weekend themselves.

Will it be humid when we play MTSU.
If so, you really have to expect MTSU to our perform because they are far more used to humidity than we are.

Face The Facts said:

Will it be humid when we play MTSU.
If so, you really have to expect MTSU to our perform because they are far more used to humidity than we are.

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We'd better keep the home team on the shaded south sideline for this one.... just in case of that humidity / sun / heat factor.

6 toss ups. Gonna be a fun year!
Thanks again Gopher07 - love this thread.


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Setting up to be a great test for a new coaching staff. A very good, but small, group of skilled athletes. A large group of newbies needing to be upcoached. Areas with very little backup. A schedule full of toss up games.

If we remain healthy these coaches have a schedule that will allow them to develop the younger or inexperienced player and to gradually expand the playbook. A few critical injuries and the season could go south ipso pronto.

I really hope we get injury lucky for a change just to see what the new staff can do! This is a year that could turn around both the fan base and recruiting. Go Gophers!

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:

Betting the Gopher games could turn out to be an insane proposition this year.

Click to expand...

Other than the OSU game.