Bad Wins

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So PJ officially starts his coaching career 1*-0

Glad we got that settled


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John Galt said:
Can anyone honestly say they wouldn't feel more optimistic about our chances at OSU and for the season if we had beat Buffalo 38-3?
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Would I be more optimistic about our chances Saturday at OSU if we had blown out Buffalo? Sure. Would blowing out Buffalo actually give us a better chance to beat OSU? Not likely.

Close wins against supposedly inferior competition are hard to watch, but they're better than close losses. Maybe someday people will give us credit for close losses like those at Nebraska and Penn State last year. If that happens I'll start worrying about close wins against Buffalo and Rutgers.
 

Gopher04 said:
It could've easily been 30-7 if Carpenter makes his field goals and Rhoda doesn't throw the INT. Not as bad as the Ohio/Kent St games where we were terrible.
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Their kicker missed two shorter field goals than Carpenter.
 


Pompous Elitist said:
I may be alone here but the game never felt in doubt. Their TD drive...perfect passes are hard to defend.

I do agree we need to identify and use weapons in the passing game to loosen up the run. THey were crowding the line all day. Same as always...

Hopefully one of Lingen or the other young tight ends, one or more of the WRs becomes a reliable target. Also need the QBs to find the open man, run when called for or the offense won't go.
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Not alone. My blood pressure was normal even with only a one score lead for most of the game. Very uncharacteristic on game day for me.
 



Hates Monikers said:
Maybe someday people will give us credit for close losses like those at Nebraska and Penn State last year. If that happens I'll start worrying about close wins against Buffalo and Rutgers.
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Nailed it.

There's a pathology among many Gophers fans to spin every scenario as negatively as possible. Why they insist on this self-flagellation is beyond me.

I wonder if wisconsin fans suddenly felt worse about the rest of the season (and started threads about it) after they trailed Georgia St. with 7:26 left in the 4th quarter last year - at home. Georgia St., who finished the year 3-9 and fired their coach 10 games into the season. Oh, and they lost to Air Force the week prior by 34 points.
 

Iceland12 said:
You gotta good point, but he only missed one. The other was blocked wasn't it?
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Technically you are correct. That said the block was on the kicker as it was a garbage kick. If Winfield didn't get it, I don't think it would have cleared the line.
 

No such thing as a bad win. Only in Minnesota sports do we hear about "Moral Victories" and "Bad Wins"...

Keep in mind, this was probably Buffalo's biggest game of the year playing on the road against a Big Ten team.

You only have 12 games and with 9 conference games now on the schedule, a win is a win.

I also think the Oregon State, Maryland and Purdue games are going to be tougher than most people think.
 



Like my Daddy always said: "Son, there ain't no such thing as an ugly rich girl."
 

dpodoll68 said:
Nailed it.

There's a pathology among many Gophers fans to spin every scenario as negatively as possible. Why they insist on this self-flagellation is beyond me.

I wonder if wisconsin fans suddenly felt worse about the rest of the season (and started threads about it) after they trailed Georgia St. with 7:26 left in the 4th quarter last year - at home. Georgia St., who finished the year 3-9 and fired their coach 10 games into the season. Oh, and they lost to Air Force the week prior by 34 points.
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It's because I haven't seen a Rose Bowl in my lifetime. If we had Wisky's success over the past 20 years a close win vs Buffalo wouldn't really bother me.
 

John Galt said:
No one is hoping to lose 6+ games. My prediction was for 7-8 wins. I don't feel great about my prediction after what I watched on Thursday. Hopefully that changes Saturday...
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That was my prediction too, and my prediction hasn't changed based on what we saw.
 

John Galt said:
Make no mistake, Thursday's game left me with a bad taste in my mouth. Yes it was a win, but a bad win. Great teams and even good teams occasionally will roll poor competition. Let's review some of our "bad wins" over the past few years:

1. 17-7 win over Buffalo (2017)
2. 34-32 win over Rutgers (2016)
3. 10-7 win over Kent St. (2015)
4. 27-24 win over Ohio (2015)

The Ohio game is a borderline bad win. There have been many other close games against teams we thought we would do better against that were close. Oregon St and Colorado St last year were 1 score games. Colorado St in 2015. San Jose St in 2014 (it wasn't that close but it sure was ugly).

Teams that can blow other teams out usually have a few things going for them: explosive defensive ends that generate significant pressure and create turnovers, the threat of a deep passing game and multiple players on offense that can score from anywhere on the field. The fact that these areas have been deficiencies is why we fail to blow teams out even when we have had good teams and expect to win by a few scores. Count me in the group that believes the last staff maximized the potential on the roster... but recruiting was the downfall that prevented us from moving from good to great.

Bottom line: it was a win, but discouraging because a good team should have been able to easily handle Buffalo.
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The key difference between Thursday's game and those other ones is Thursday was the first game for the new staff. If we are 5-6 years in and still having "bad wins" like that, it's a different story.
 



John Galt said:
It's because I haven't seen a Rose Bowl in my lifetime. If we had Wisky's success over the past 20 years a close win vs Buffalo wouldn't really bother me.
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Do you realize that each game is an independent event? Getting a win* against Buffalo isn't going to change how the team performs in the other 11+ games on the schedule.
 

Buffalo had 3 transfers that played. JMO, but I thought they were better than Ball State, Bowling Green, and even Utah State.
 

John Galt said:
No one is hoping to lose 6+ games. My prediction was for 7-8 wins. I don't feel great about my prediction after what I watched on Thursday. Hopefully that changes Saturday...
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Think of all of the embarrassing losses they have had over the last decade or so. This was a shaky win over a team that wasn't as bad as expected. Relax, they aren't going to win the B1G this year, but they will be ok.

This coach is dynamic and talented. If (a huge if) he sticks around they will be playing with the big boys every year.


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UpAndUnder43 said:
Claeys should have been fired afternoon that Rutgers debacle.
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Should Michigan have fired Harbaugh after they barely beat us?

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Vandy said:
1:48 since the initial posting of this thread and no comment from SPOOFIN on this topic.

I will start contacting area hospitals.
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Always nice to be missed. This may surprise you, but I think all Wins count the same.


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dpodoll68 said:
Do you realize that each game is an independent event? Getting a win* against Buffalo isn't going to change how the team performs in the other 11+ games on the schedule.
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Flipping a coin is an independent event. Football has some predictive power based on how good a team was the previous year and how they fare vs common opponents.

I'll predict that Alabama will be pretty good this year based on how they did last year and their dismantling of Florida St. in game #1.
 

jamiche said:
Think of all of the embarrassing losses they have had over the last decade or so. This was a shaky win over a team that wasn't as bad as expected. Relax, they aren't going to win the B1G this year, but they will be ok.

This coach is dynamic and talented. If (a huge if) he sticks around they will be playing with the big boys every year.


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Cripes- here we go on the pj is leaving discussion again. Asinine


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Spoofin said:
Always nice to be missed. This may surprise you, but I think all Wins count the same.


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That I knew, and I count 'em all too.
Was awaiting your "pounce"....:cool:
 



John Galt said:
Make no mistake, Thursday's game left me with a bad taste in my mouth. Yes it was a win, but a bad win. Great teams and even good teams occasionally will roll poor competition. Let's review some of our "bad wins" over the past few years:

1. 17-7 win over Buffalo (2017)
2. 34-32 win over Rutgers (2016)
3. 10-7 win over Kent St. (2015)
4. 27-24 win over Ohio (2015)

The Ohio game is a borderline bad win. There have been many other close games against teams we thought we would do better against that were close. Oregon St and Colorado St last year were 1 score games. Colorado St in 2015. San Jose St in 2014 (it wasn't that close but it sure was ugly).

Teams that can blow other teams out usually have a few things going for them: explosive defensive ends that generate significant pressure and create turnovers, the threat of a deep passing game and multiple players on offense that can score from anywhere on the field. The fact that these areas have been deficiencies is why we fail to blow teams out even when we have had good teams and expect to win by a few scores. Count me in the group that believes the last staff maximized the potential on the roster... but recruiting was the downfall that prevented us from moving from good to great.

Bottom line: it was a win, but discouraging because a good team should have been able to easily handle Buffalo.
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No such thing.
 

Ok let me talk you off the cliff. Every game is different. Coaches learn what works and what doesn't for a player. Players and units gel. If this team shows progress each week and plays better and better week by week none of us will have much to complain about. It happens at all levels. Just look at Green Bay last year. Let's enjoy the season!
 


dpodoll68 said:
Nailed it.

There's a pathology among many Gophers fans to spin every scenario as negatively as possible. Why they insist on this self-flagellation is beyond me.

I wonder if wisconsin fans suddenly felt worse about the rest of the season (and started threads about it) after they trailed Georgia St. with 7:26 left in the 4th quarter last year - at home. Georgia St., who finished the year 3-9 and fired their coach 10 games into the season. Oh, and they lost to Air Force the week prior by 34 points.
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Exactly. I've been clear I can't stand RTB and PJs schtick, but doesn't mean he can't coach. Game was boring as could be last week, played in many ways like a Kill/Claeys game of recent years, but never felt in doubt. Played to win, not for style points.

Some of the people singing PJs praises now, and yelling at those of who are not speaking in tongues with him, are the same people who were calling for Claeys head after a win against Rutgers. They will likely be the first to then turn on the new staff (not calling you out here John Gait). I'll likely never embrace RTB, but also won't call for coaches head as long as our coach.


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"Bad wins" are only an issue because they can help to predict if you will win other games.

For example, a team that barely beats Rutgers at home, is usually going to have a really difficult time beating Northwestern.

The Buffalo game was concerning because it makes me think we will have a difficult time beating other teams. That's the sole reason it's concerning to me.

If the game is an anomaly and we smash Oregon State and finish 8-4, I won't even care about the closeness of the Buffalo game in the slightest.
If our offense continues to struggle all season, we can look at the Buffalo game and say that was a sign of things that came later in the season.

Your record is your record, all wins count. All losses count. Bad wins or good losses only matter as a predictive tool for the rest of the reason.

The Rutgers win last year was just a win for me (because we finished 9-4). We had a good season and that game was more or less an anomaly.
 

The problem with calling Buffalo a bad win is that they could be very improved from last year. And that's the problem with "Good" wins at the beginning of the season. Imagine if we had played, and beaten, MSU in our Big Ten opener last year. Immediately after the game we would feel amazing, calling it a great win, talking about how we would beat everyone. And then the rest of the season would happen and we would realize that the win was not as "Good" as we though. The same can happen with bad wins.

So if you are going to call things good wins or bad wins, at least let the season play out a bit before making that judgement. If buffalo has a really great season this year (not saying they will), and are actually a decent team, the win won't be as "bad".
 

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