Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
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There's good and bad news coming through the numbers in this week's predictions.
First, the good news is that the formulas like our chances during the non-conference more after the first full weekend of games. Oregon State followed up a pounding at the hands of Colorado State with a clunker of a win against FCS Portland State, while MTSU looked positively awful in losing to Vanderbilt 28-6. We can't take anything for granted, but right now the chances of starting 3-0 don't look that bad.
However, the bad news is that our conference schedule is looking increasingly difficult. Maryland's big win over Texas firmly places that game in the "toss up" category, while Purdue's better-than-expected showing against Louisville means we probably shouldn't chalk that one up as a win just yet either. Meanwhile, Iowa's strong performance pushes our game at Kinnick into the likely loss column, while the gap between us and Michigan and Wisconsin got bigger.
This weekend is a big opportunity for the team, and our first toss-up game. Can't wait.
Go Gophers!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State -4.5
vs Middle Tennessee -12
vs Maryland -1.5
@ Purdue -3
vs Michigan State +7
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +10.5
@ Michigan +20.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10
vs Wisconsin +18.5
Final record: 6-6 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Middle Tennessee, vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Oregon State, vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, vs Nebraska
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Iowa, @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week One
First, the good news is that the formulas like our chances during the non-conference more after the first full weekend of games. Oregon State followed up a pounding at the hands of Colorado State with a clunker of a win against FCS Portland State, while MTSU looked positively awful in losing to Vanderbilt 28-6. We can't take anything for granted, but right now the chances of starting 3-0 don't look that bad.
However, the bad news is that our conference schedule is looking increasingly difficult. Maryland's big win over Texas firmly places that game in the "toss up" category, while Purdue's better-than-expected showing against Louisville means we probably shouldn't chalk that one up as a win just yet either. Meanwhile, Iowa's strong performance pushes our game at Kinnick into the likely loss column, while the gap between us and Michigan and Wisconsin got bigger.
This weekend is a big opportunity for the team, and our first toss-up game. Can't wait.
Go Gophers!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State -4.5
vs Middle Tennessee -12
vs Maryland -1.5
@ Purdue -3
vs Michigan State +7
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +10.5
@ Michigan +20.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10
vs Wisconsin +18.5
Final record: 6-6 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Middle Tennessee, vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Oregon State, vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, vs Nebraska
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Iowa, @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week One
