These Power Five teams are out of the College Football Playoffs

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Dano564

Dano564

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Several more added to the just holding on spot.
Toughest decision was UCLA. I think losing to Memphis pretty much kills them, but the PAC10-12-14 could be messy so who knows. Not convinced USC will run away with it, so UCLA stays alive.


OUT:

California - 9/23
Michigan State - 9/23
Mississippi State - 9/23
Kentucky - 9/23
Vanderbilt - 9/23
Arkansas - 9/23
Maryland - 9/23
Florida State - 9/23
Pittsburgh - 9/23

Stanford - 9/16
Missouri - 9/16
Nebraska - 9/16
Illinois - 9/15

Boston College - 9/9
Kansas - 9/9
Arizona - 9/9
Arizona St 9-9
Syracuse - 9/9
Iowa St - 9/9
Virginia - 9/9

BYU - 9/2
Baylor - 9/2
Purdue - 9/2
NC State - 9/2
North Carolina - 9/2
Texas - 9/2 (losing to Maryland will do that to you)
Rutgers - 9/1
Indiana - 8/31

Oregon St - 8/26
U Mass ?


Hanging on:
Auburn
Georgia Tech
Iowa
Kansas State
Louisville
LSU
Mississippi
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Tennessee
Texas A&M
UCLA
West Virginia

Alive:
Alabama
Clemson
Colorado
Duke
Florida
Georgia
Miami
Michigan
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Oregon
Penn State
South Carolina
TCU
Texas Tech
USC
Utah
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Wisconsin
 







NC State - 9/2
(But probably not Florida ... yet)
 


Baylor and Purdue added


(and U Mass if they count... )
 



Add BYU.

Btw given UMass has only been a FBS member since 2011, I would consider them a G5 level program fwiw.
 


I don't think you can rule any P5 teams out with 1 loss. If any of the P5 teams listed here ran the table, they would still have a great shot of making it. In 3 years of the CFP, only one team each year entered it undefeated.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I don't think you can rule any P5 teams out with 1 loss. If any of the P5 teams listed here ran the table, they would still have a great shot of making it. In 3 years of the CFP, only one team each year entered it undefeated.
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Perhaps if you are a top 10 team to begin with. None of the listed teams fit that scenario. Maybe W Virginia has a chance. I feel confident that the rest have no shot.
 



Rutgers would certainly be a lock to make the playoff if they were to run the table from here on out. They'd have wins over OSU, PSU, Michigan and the west division champ. Same could probably be said of Purdue too.
 

die hard gopher said:
Rutgers would certainly be a lock to make the playoff if they were to run the table from here on out. They'd have wins over OSU, PSU, Michigan and the west division champ. Same could probably be said of Purdue too.
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Exactly my point.

You can argue that based on their 1st loss they are unlikely to run the table and I'd agree. But as it stands today, none of those P5 schools are eliminated.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Exactly my point.

You can argue that based on their 1st loss they are unlikely to run the table and I'd agree. But as it stands today, none of those P5 schools are eliminated.
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And plenty of these teams like Rutgers had zero chance to run the table before the season even started so it's pointless to say they are now eliminated but weren't before their game. You can argue they had zero chance to make the playoff before the season even started and still don't or they did have a chance to make it and still do if they win the rest of their games but it doesn't make sense to me to say they had a chance before their first game but not anymore.
 

die hard gopher said:
And plenty of these teams like Rutgers had zero chance to run the table before the season even started so it's pointless to say they are now eliminated but weren't before their game. You can argue they had zero chance to make the playoff before the season even started and still don't or they did have a chance to make it and still do if they win the rest of their games but it doesn't make sense to me to say they had a chance before their first game but not anymore.
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Everyone has a chance until the games are played. 2 years ago Iowa was unranked until week 6. They finished the regular season ranked 3rd and would have played in the CFP had they beaten Michigan St in the B1G championship game.

Unexpected teams can make a run at having undefeated or 1 loss seasons. USC was 1-3 after 4 games last season and they still almost made it.
 

I disagree that Rutgers will make it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

A one-loss P5 conference champion is likely in.
But none of the teams suggested (except possibly WVU) played in a way that there is a snowball's chance that they could ever win the rest of their games and overcome their Week 1 loss. We know enough to know that they're out.
 

Part of the reason I list these teams is because even if they ran the table, they likely would not get chosen either due to them being bottom of their standings usually which hurts their ranking.

The only way any of them would make the playoff is if they were one of only four 1 loss teams with no unbeatens.

The chance they run the table is highly unlikely.
The chance that if they are in a tie based on record that they would get chosen over another team in their conference is unlikely.
The chance their are 4 other teams with better records end of season is also unlikely.

As I said, they aren't mathematically eliminated, but good enough that you'd be happy to bet a paycheck on it against 2-1 odds.

The loser of tonights GA Tech / Tennessee game will not be on the list because of it being a respectable loss so far.
 

Goldmember said:
A one-loss P5 conference champion is likely in.
But none of the teams suggested (except possibly WVU) played in a way that there is a snowball's chance that they could ever win the rest of their games and overcome their Week 1 loss. We know enough to know that they're out.
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That's why West Virginia isn't on the list yet.
They could go unbeaten the rest of the way, and their loss is respectable.
 

Face The Facts said:
Part of the reason I list these teams is because even if they ran the table, they likely would not get chosen either due to them being bottom of their standings usually which hurts their ranking.

The only way any of them would make the playoff is if they were one of only four 1 loss teams with no unbeatens.

The chance they run the table is highly unlikely.
The chance that if they are in a tie based on record that they would get chosen over another team in their conference is unlikely.
The chance their are 4 other teams with better records end of season is also unlikely.

As I said, they aren't mathematically eliminated, but good enough that you'd be happy to bet a paycheck on it against 2-1 odds.

The loser of tonights GA Tech / Tennessee game will not be on the list because of it being a respectable loss so far.
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This is why I would add TAMU: Alabama, Auburn, @Florida, @LSU.

Same for GA Tech imo: @Miami, @Clemson, VA Tech, Georgia.

These teams will lose again somewhere down the road.
Edit: I do concede WV still has a shot.
 

So this week we have a couple teams with good matchups where their first loss isn't a horrible loss.

But with that said, I'm adding Iowa State and Virginia.

Losing to Indiana probably isn't going to be a good thing, so that's why VA is out.
Iowa St is out because they are Iowa St and they play in the Big 12.
I would think they'll have a really hard time making a playoff at this point.
 







I am adding:

Boston College - 9/9
Kansas - 9/9
Arizona - 9/9
Arizona St 9-9

I am not adding:
Northwestern 9/9
Nebraska - 9/9
or
Ohio State 9/9


I am debating both Nebraska and Northwestern, but NW was a pick among some to win the West, so too early to put them out.
I think one loss in the Big Ten West is too few at this point.

If OSU runs the table, and win the Big Ten Title, they could definitely still make the playoffs. We've seen it before.
 

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