Sagarin Predictions: Week 1

Normally I'd wait to update this until after the Gophers have played a game, but since one of our opponents got out of the gate last weekend I figure it was worth a quick check-in.

Oregon State fell from 2.5-point favorites to 1.5-point underdogs as a result of their 58-27 loss to Colorado State on Saturday. It remains firmly in toss-up territory, but as we head into the season opener for our Gophers, the prediction is bowl eligibility. Nothing else changed (because barely anyone played last weekend) so no big recap to type this week.

Go Gophers!

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs Buffalo -22
@ Oregon State -1.5
vs Middle Tennessee -9.5
vs Maryland -7.5
@ Purdue -7
vs Michigan State +4.5
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +6.5
@ Michigan +16.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10.5
vs Wisconsin +14

Final record: 6-6 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Buffalo, vs Middle Tennessee, vs Maryland, vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Oregon State, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin

Previous weeks:

Preseason

This indicates that someone won't earn his paycheck.

Michigan State +4.5. We will take them like Grant took Richmond.

Kind of very speculative to say the least without exaggerating at all since the model is based on last year's information (except one game in so far this year for Oregon State).

Would be nice to know how accurate Sagarin was in preseason last year for Western Michigan. How many wins did it predict?

The Gophers will not lose five straight games. The Gophers will go to a bowl.

gopherfannnn said:

Would be nice to know how accurate Sagarin was in preseason last year for Western Michigan. How many wins did it predict?

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I'm not sure - I can't find the ratings scores for preseason 2016 - but based on the preseason rankings last year, it's likely they were favored in 10 or 11 regular season games. They were the top ranked MAC team (at 50) and ahead of all the teams on their schedule with the exception of Northwestern (who was 46).

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...mputer-composite-preseason-rankings/89649648/

It had the Gophers pegged for 7 or 8 regular season wins last year as well.

That said, of course it's speculative and just for fun.

ruppertflywheel said:

Michigan State +4.5. We will take them like Grant took Richmond.

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Don't believe Bud ever coached CFB.

Michigan State kind of shapes up as a big game. That's parent and family weekend, so we'll be there.

Bad Gopher said:

Michigan State kind of shapes up as a big game. That's parent and family weekend, so we'll be there.

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Michigan St looks a lot like the Iowa game last year, minus the rivalry. Right now it appears to be a winnable game at home. Win it and there may be a lot of momentum going into Illinois and the tough final 5 game stretch that follows.