Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
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I'm back for another year of predictions using the Sagarin ratings as a guide. After each week, I'll update the predictions below and keep track of how far off the formula was for each game.
Last year, the preseason predictions were pretty spot on in terms of wins and losses - it had us as favorites against Oregon State, Indiana State, Colorado State, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue, and a pick against Northwestern. We'd go on to win all of those games and lose the rest.
That said, even a blind squirrel finds a nut, and while last year's predictions were right from a W/L perspective, don't expect that to be the case this year too. These ratings depend on games being played and connections between teams being made, so things shift around quite a bit through the first few weeks of the season before settling in.
Basically, this is a guess at how it might go - so don't get too upset if it doesn't show you exactly what you want right now. It's just for fun anyhow
As we look at the first predictions for the year, it's clear there's not a lot of clarity. We have some games we should win handily - Buffalo, Illinois - and some games where the formula doesn't give us much of a chance. But we have three games where we're currently underdogs by less than five points - Oregon State, Michigan State, and Nebraska. The difference between a winning season and a losing one probably lies in those tightly-contested toss-up games. Win them all and we could be looking at another 8-4 type of year. Lose them all and bowl eligibility is in question.
I look forward to a fun season - thanks for reading again this year!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs Buffalo -22
@ Oregon State +2.5
vs Middle Tennessee -9.5
vs Maryland -7.5
@ Purdue -7
vs Michigan State +4.5
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +6.5
@ Michigan +16.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10.5
vs Wisconsin +14
Final record: 5-7 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Buffalo, vs Middle Tennessee, vs Maryland, vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Oregon State, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
Last year, the preseason predictions were pretty spot on in terms of wins and losses - it had us as favorites against Oregon State, Indiana State, Colorado State, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue, and a pick against Northwestern. We'd go on to win all of those games and lose the rest.
That said, even a blind squirrel finds a nut, and while last year's predictions were right from a W/L perspective, don't expect that to be the case this year too. These ratings depend on games being played and connections between teams being made, so things shift around quite a bit through the first few weeks of the season before settling in.
Basically, this is a guess at how it might go - so don't get too upset if it doesn't show you exactly what you want right now. It's just for fun anyhow
As we look at the first predictions for the year, it's clear there's not a lot of clarity. We have some games we should win handily - Buffalo, Illinois - and some games where the formula doesn't give us much of a chance. But we have three games where we're currently underdogs by less than five points - Oregon State, Michigan State, and Nebraska. The difference between a winning season and a losing one probably lies in those tightly-contested toss-up games. Win them all and we could be looking at another 8-4 type of year. Lose them all and bowl eligibility is in question.
I look forward to a fun season - thanks for reading again this year!
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs Buffalo -22
@ Oregon State +2.5
vs Middle Tennessee -9.5
vs Maryland -7.5
@ Purdue -7
vs Michigan State +4.5
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +6.5
@ Michigan +16.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10.5
vs Wisconsin +14
Final record: 5-7 (3-6)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Buffalo, vs Middle Tennessee, vs Maryland, vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Oregon State, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin
