Gopher Head Coaches 1st Year Records

Donate To GopherHole
Iceland12

Iceland12

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
24,452
Reaction score
2,285
Points
113
This gets kicked around here a lot. Can't see how people expect a 10 win season. Can't see how they expect a 5-6 win season either. However the "but it's a new head coach, new system, new players etc, so they're bound to fail" argument doesn't hold very true if you look at Head Coaching transitions in the past.

Here's the last 11 Head Coaching changes. It covers 70+ years.

It shows that only three, Felsler to Warmath, Salem to Holtz, Kill to Claeys was there a big jump in wins. Only Mason to Brewster showed a big decrease in them.

Overall the changes made a minimal difference in records from the previous Head Coach to the new guy in that transition year.


1953 to 1954 - Wes Felsler to Murray Warmath: 4-4-1 to 7-2

1971 to 1972 - Warmath to Cal Stoll: 4-7 to 4-7

1978 to 1979 - Stoll to Joe Salem: 5-6 to 4-6-1

1983 to 1984 - Salem to Lou Holtz: 1-10 to 4-7

1985 to 1986 - Holtz to John Gutenkunst: *7-5 to 6-6__________ * Gutenkunst coached the Gophers to win over Clemson in Independence Bowl

1991 to 1992 - Gutenkunst to Jim Wacker: 2-9 to 4-7

1996 to 1997 - Wacker to Mason: 4-7 to 3-9

2006 to 2007 - Mason to Tim Brewster: 6-7 to 1-11

2010 to 2011 - Brewster/ Tim Horton to Jerry Kill: *3-9 to 3-9 _______* Horton was 2-3 as Head Coach

2015 to 2016 - KIll to Tracy Claeys: *6-7 to 9-4______________* Clays was Interim Head Coach for 2 games and Head Coach for the last 3

2016 to 2017 - Claeys to P.J. Fleck: 9-4 to ??
 

The circumstances of letting Claeys go was drastically different from all of the above scenarios. Any of the coaches above would have loved to have the amount of talent that Fleck has inherited. I am comfortable in saying that Fleck will build on last years success.
 

Thanks Iceland. I seem to recall saying on here just this week that the new coach/system "adjustment" was misapplied and not a reason to expect a drop-off. I don't recall getting much agreement on the topic.

Bottom Line: Jimmies and Joes over Xs and Os.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
The circumstances of letting Claeys go was drastically different from all of the above scenarios. Any of the coaches above would have loved to have the amount of talent that Fleck has inherited. I am comfortable in saying that Fleck will build on last years success.
Click to expand...

While that may be true, you should take a closer look at those numbers. Brewster was the only guy to lose 2 or more games (5) than his predecessor. 4 guys though won 3 more games than the previous guy did.

I'm very confident that despite all the people who think that Fleck will be closer to Brewster than to Warmath, Holtz, Kill and Claeys. Just not ready to give Fleck their 3 win improvement over Claeys. :cool:
 

Spoofin said:
Thanks Iceland. I seem to recall saying on here just this week that the new coach/system "adjustment" was misapplied and not a reason to expect a drop-off. I don't recall getting much agreement on the topic.

Bottom Line: Jimmies and Joes over Xs and Os.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

You're welcome.
 


Iceland12 said:
While that may be true, you should take a closer look at those numbers. Brewster was the only guy to lose 2 or more games (5) than his predecessor. 4 guys though won 3 more games than the previous guy did.

I'm very confident that despite all the people who think that Fleck will be closer to Brewster than to Warmath, Holtz, Kill and Claeys. Just not ready to give Fleck their 3 win improvement over Claeys. :cool:
Click to expand...

None of those guys was handed a 9-4 record, so it's all apples to oranges. I can't speak to the team Warmath took over, but Holtz took over a one win team. As was at his first win, over Rice. Almost anyone can improve on a one win team. Kill did not improve the first year record from what he inherited and Claeys was also an apples to oranges situation. I will stick with my first comment. I fully expect Fleck to take this team to a level in the next few years that I doubt Claeys could get them to.
 

HoustonTXGopher said:
None of those guys was handed a 9-4 record, so it's all apples to oranges. I can't speak to the team Warmath took over, but Holtz took over a one win team. As was at his first win, over Rice. Almost anyone can improve on a one win team. Kill did not improve the first year record from what he inherited and Claeys was also an apples to oranges situation. I will stick with my first comment. I fully expect Fleck to take this team to a level in the next few years that I doubt Claeys could get them to.
Click to expand...

Tell this guy then. :D

The circumstances of letting Claeys go was drastically different from all of the above scenarios. Any of the coaches above would have loved to have the amount of talent that Fleck has inherited. I am comfortable in saying that Fleck will build on last years success.
 

Spoofin said:
Thanks Iceland. I seem to recall saying on here just this week that the new coach/system "adjustment" was misapplied and not a reason to expect a drop-off. I don't recall getting much agreement on the topic.

Bottom Line: Jimmies and Joes over Xs and Os.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Agreed.
Which is why I am and was expecting about 7 wins next year regardless of the coach.
 

Iceland12 said:
This gets kicked around here a lot. Can't see how people expect a 10 win season. Can't see how they expect a 5-6 win season either. However the "but it's a new head coach, new system, new players etc, so they're bound to fail" argument doesn't hold very true if you look at Head Coaching transitions in the past.

Here's the last 11 Head Coaching changes. It covers 70+ years.

It shows that only four, Felsler to Warmath, Salem to Holtz, Kill to Claeys and Claeys to Kill was there a big jump in wins. Only Mason to Brewster showed a big decrease in them.

Overall the changes made a minimal difference in records from the previous Head Coach to the new guy in that transition year.


1953 to 1954 - Wes Felsler to Murray Warmath: 4-4-1 to 7-2

1971 to 1972 - Warmath to Cal Stoll: 4-7 to 4-7

1978 to 1979 - Stoll to Joe Salem: 5-6 to 4-6-1

1983 to 1984 - Salem to Lou Holtz: 1-10 to 4-7

1985 to 1986 - Holtz to John Gutenkunst: *7-5 to 6-6__________ * Gutenkunst coached the Gophers to win over Clemson in Independence Bowl

1991 to 1992 - Gutenkunst to Jim Wacker: 2-9 to 4-7

1996 to 1997 - Wacker to Mason: 4-7 to 3-9

2006 to 2007 - Mason to Tim Brewster: 6-7 to 1-11

2010 to 2011 - Brewster/ Tim Horton to Jerry Kill: *3-9 to 3-9 _______* Horton was 2-3 as Head Coach

2015 to 2016 - KIll to Tracy Claeys: *6-7 to 9-4______________* Clays was Interim Head Coach for 2 games and Head Coach for the last 3

2016 to 2017 - Claeys to P.J. Fleck: 9-4 to ??
Click to expand...

Who has said, "but it's a new head coach, new system, new players etc, so they're bound to FAIL"??? Is there really anyone on this board who thinks this coaching staff and group of players is going to fail??? It may be that they have less wins than last year, it may not, but fail? That's pretty dramatic there Iceman.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 



Some Day...Maybe said:
Who has said, "but it's a new head coach, new system, new players etc, so they're bound to FAIL"??? Is there really anyone on this board who thinks this coaching staff and group of players is going to fail??? It may be that they have less wins than last year, it may not, but fail? That's pretty dramatic there Iceman..
Click to expand...

Not as melodramatic as your post. Hit to close to home huh? :D If you you have read the post before starting to whine about it, you'd see that dropping down 3-4 wins would be the largest fall-off for a new Gopher Head Coach except for Brewster in over 70 years. Yeah, that would be a failure. Something that's pretty hard to imagine looking at Fleck's history as a head coach.
 

Some Day...Maybe said:
Who has said, "but it's a new head coach, new system, new players etc, so they're bound to FAIL"??? Is there really anyone on this board who thinks this coaching staff and group of players is going to fail??? It may be that they have less wins than last year, it may not, but fail? That's pretty dramatic there Iceman.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Would a comment that states they will struggle this year due to "the first year new coach/new system 'adjustment period'" count? If so, I will gladly point you to an (recent) example.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

The only ambush I see in the first 7 games is Oregon State. Reason being the new QB will have only one game under his belt. I'm counting Rhoda as " new " because of the new scheme's on offense. I think we've to put up at least 30 points to beat OSU because they do have some skilled players on offense. Just me, but I think Fleck will at least match last year's 9 wins.
 

I'm to sure a sample of 11 seasons should provide a guide post no matter what it says for 2017. That goes both ways of course.
 



A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I'm to sure a sample of 11 seasons should provide a guide post no matter what it says for 2017. That goes both ways of course.
Click to expand...

11 seasons over 70+ years. Glad you're so sure about it. :eek:

It certainly refutes all the "teams can't handle a new coach or system in the transition year". Unless a coach is planning on throwing away his first season and is in over his head, no one should expect that first year to be a big drop from the previous one.

Fleck had his throw away season at WMU. Can't see him, Kaler or Coyle wanting him to do it again. He also seems like a good coach. One who should get a better performance out of that Offense and shouldn't let the Defense and Special Teams slide. Not too much at least.

It should be a fine season to watch.
 

Iceland12 said:
11 seasons over 70+ years. Glad you're so sure about it. :eek:

It certainly refutes all the "teams can't handle a new coach or system in the transition year". Unless a coach is planning on throwing away his first season and is in over his head, no one should expect that first year to be a big drop from the previous one.

Fleck had his throw away season at WMU. Can't see him, Kaler or Coyle wanting him to do it again. He also seems like a good coach. One who should get a better performance out of that Offense and shouldn't let the Defense and Special Teams slide. Not too much at least.

It should be a fine season to watch.
Click to expand...

Not supporting /= refuting. Small sample over that long a time. I don't think it means anything.
 

Spoofin said:
Would a comment that states they will struggle this year due to "the first year new coach/new system 'adjustment period'" count? If so, I will gladly point you to an (recent) example.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I think they could struggle early on and maybe lose a few they shouldn't. There absolutely is an adjustment period when you have a completely new staff and system. How long that adjustment period is will vary. Every situation is different. Paul Chryst, for example, previously coached at WI and kept some of the coaches around. He probably made some changes in philosophy when hired, but my guess it was mostly minor.

At the same time, this team is talented enough to still win a lot of games regardless of the changes being made.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Not supporting /= refuting. Small sample over that long a time. I don't think it means anything.
Click to expand...

Uh,yeah but you typed: "I'm to sure a sample of 11 seasons should provide a guide post no matter what it says for 2017."

Nobody seems to have an f*ing sense of humor around here anymore...
 

GophersInIowa said:
I think they could struggle early on and maybe lose a few they shouldn't. <b>There absolutely is an adjustment period when you have a completely new staff and system. </b>How long that adjustment period is will vary. Every situation is different. Paul Chryst, for example, previously coached at WI and kept some of the coaches around. He probably made some changes in philosophy when hired, but my guess it was mostly minor.

At the same time, this team is talented enough to still win a lot of games regardless of the changes being made.
Click to expand...

Paul Chryst won fewer games in his first year than Gary Andersen had the previous year. Andersen, on the other hand, won more games in his first year than Bret Bielema had the previous year. As you know, Anderson had not previously coached at WI and brought his own coaches. His changes would not be considered minor yet the team somehow didn't need all that "adjustment time". I don't necessarily disagree with the bolded part - but also don't think it really adds losses in most cases. Plenty of time to adjust in Spring/Summer/Fall unless there is some huge overhaul (See Brewster).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 


Iceland12 said:
Uh,yeah but you typed: "I'm to sure a sample of 11 seasons should provide a guide post no matter what it says for 2017."

Nobody seems to have an f*ing sense of humor around here anymore...
Click to expand...

Should have been a "not" in there.
 


Time to look at the important position.

Quarterbacks under new head coaches.



1985 to 1986 - Holtz to John Gutenkunst: *7-5 to 6-6 - - - *** Returning QB was Junior Rickey Foggie
1991 to 1992 - Gutenkunst to Jim Wacker: 2-9 to 4-7 - - - *** Returning QB was Senior Marquell Fleetwood.
1996 to 1997 - Wacker to Mason: 4-7 to 3-9 - - - *** 4th year Senior Corey Sauter
2006 to 2007 - Mason to Tim Brewster: 6-7 to 1-11 - - - *** Freshman QB. Adam Weber
2010 to 2011 - Brewster to Jerry Kill: *3-9 to 3-9 - - - *** Junior QB Marquis Gray
2015 to 2016 - KIll to Tracy Claeys: *6-7 to 9-4 - - - *** Senior QB Mitch Leidner
2016 to 2017 - Claeys to P.J. Fleck: 9-4 to - - - *** No idea who the QB is, but it's someone not as good as Mitch Leidner was last year or someone brand new.

What can we learn from this.

Senior lead teams win changes were +2, -1, and +3. Avg increase of +1.3 wins during the coaching change.
Junior QB lead teams went -1, and +/-0 for an average decrease in wins of 0.5 games per season with coaching change.
No Sophomore QB in this sample.
Freshman QB lead teams decreased in win total (-5) for an average of 5 less wins with a new coach.

Therefore you can predict a 9 win team will likely have 4 wins this year by QB play alone.
 

Face The Facts said:
Time to look at the important position.

Quarterbacks under new head coaches.



1985 to 1986 - Holtz to John Gutenkunst: *7-5 to 6-6 - - - *** Returning QB was Junior Rickey Foggie
1991 to 1992 - Gutenkunst to Jim Wacker: 2-9 to 4-7 - - - *** Returning QB was Senior Marquell Fleetwood.
1996 to 1997 - Wacker to Mason: 4-7 to 3-9 - - - *** 4th year Senior Corey Sauter
2006 to 2007 - Mason to Tim Brewster: 6-7 to 1-11 - - - *** Freshman QB. Adam Weber
2010 to 2011 - Brewster to Jerry Kill: *3-9 to 3-9 - - - *** Junior QB Marquis Gray
2015 to 2016 - KIll to Tracy Claeys: *6-7 to 9-4 - - - *** Senior QB Mitch Leidner
2016 to 2017 - Claeys to P.J. Fleck: 9-4 to - - - *** No idea who the QB is, but it's someone not as good as Mitch Leidner was last year or someone brand new.

What can we learn from this.

Senior lead teams win changes were +2, -1, and +3. Avg increase of +1.3 wins during the coaching change.
Junior QB lead teams went -1, and +/-0 for an average decrease in wins of 0.5 games per season with coaching change.
No Sophomore QB in this sample.
Freshman QB lead teams decreased in win total (-5) for an average of 5 less wins with a new coach.

Therefore you can predict a 9 win team will likely have 4 wins this year by QB play alone.
Click to expand...

There is almost zero chance of a freshman starting QB this year, so no, you can't predict that. Nice try.
 

Face The Facts said:
Time to look at the important position.

Quarterbacks under new head coaches.



1985 to 1986 - Holtz to John Gutenkunst: *7-5 to 6-6 - - - *** Returning QB was Junior Rickey Foggie
1991 to 1992 - Gutenkunst to Jim Wacker: 2-9 to 4-7 - - - *** Returning QB was Senior Marquell Fleetwood.
1996 to 1997 - Wacker to Mason: 4-7 to 3-9 - - - *** 4th year Senior Corey Sauter
2006 to 2007 - Mason to Tim Brewster: 6-7 to 1-11 - - - *** Freshman QB. Adam Weber
2010 to 2011 - Brewster to Jerry Kill: *3-9 to 3-9 - - - *** Junior QB Marquis Gray
2015 to 2016 - KIll to Tracy Claeys: *6-7 to 9-4 - - - *** Senior QB Mitch Leidner
2016 to 2017 - Claeys to P.J. Fleck: 9-4 to - - - *** No idea who the QB is, but it's someone not as good as Mitch Leidner was last year or someone brand new.

What can we learn from this.

Senior lead teams win changes were +2, -1, and +3. Avg increase of +1.3 wins during the coaching change.
Junior QB lead teams went -1, and +/-0 for an average decrease in wins of 0.5 games per season with coaching change.
No Sophomore QB in this sample.
Freshman QB lead teams decreased in win total (-5) for an average of 5 less wins with a new coach.

Therefore you can predict a 9 win team will likely have 4 wins this year by QB play alone.
Click to expand...

Logical fallacy - you're assuming the new QB will be the same player they were last year. Maybe, but sometimes players do improve from one season to the next - especially if they're getting more reps in practice and more game time.

And, as I keep pointing out - new offensive system this year. Just because Croft or Rhoda couldn't beat out Leidner last year in the old system does not mean that they cannot be effective this year in a different system with different coaches. Unless they're using last year's offensive system, and Johnson is coming back to call the plays - which I am pretty sure is not happening.
 

Face The Facts said:
Time to look at the important position.

What can we learn from this...
Therefore you can predict a 9 win team will likely have 4 wins this year by QB play alone.
Click to expand...

That you think P.J. Fleck was a very lousy hire.
 

Seems like everyone wants to forget the fact that we'll have a first year starter instead of a returning Junior or Senior.

Fine, go ahead with your high expectations that we'll automatically have better QB performance from an unknown. But don't come crying end of season when we win 4-5 games only as say PJ was a bad hire when I'm spelling it out to you in plain english right now that it takes a few years to install a new program.

Some of you would sooner bet on the idea that Croft or Rhoda will be some sort of outlier and somehow be a better QB in a brand new system than they were last year when they were both worse than Leidner.
 

2016 Minnesota Big Ten SR QB 12 173 307 56.4 2169 7.1 5.8 8 12 116.5

Not the stuff of legend. While we may possibly miss his legs and his leadership intangibles there isn't much further down to go in terms of passing (for a long-time starter) than the above.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
2016 Minnesota Big Ten SR QB 12 173 307 56.4 2169 7.1 5.8 8 12 116.5

Not the stuff of legend. While we may possibly miss his legs and his leadership intangibles there isn't much further down to go in terms of passing (for a long-time starter) than the above.
Click to expand...

Leadership intangibles will be the biggest difference.
Big unknow. Could mean several less wins this year.
 

Change your best, Debbie Downer. There's no doubt being the underdog and winning is fun but it looks like the Gophers are projected to be a favorites or a push in a lot of games. You can hang on to your gloom if you wish.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Change your best, Debbie Downer. There's no doubt being the underdog and winning is fun but it looks like the Gophers are projected to be a favorites or a push in a lot of games. You can hang on to your gloom if you wish.
Click to expand...


I'm super excited for the season to see the first year of a 3-4 year rebuilding program. I'm hoping for 4-5 wins for a strong start with a new QB. If we win more than that, it's icing on the cake for the first year head coach.
Second year maybe a step back with a lot of new talent. Then year 3 and 4 things can start to come together.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom