Vegas win total 7.5

justthefacts

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I bet the over. Discuss.



(sorry if already discussed)
 

7.5 is tough. I think we could win 8 or more games. I'm not sure with any conviction I can say we should win 8 games. I'm anxious to see how these guys fit together as a coaching staff. I "think" we are going to be markedly better offensively but will we be better defensively? The under seems the safer bet and the one I'd be way more comfortable losing.

Edit: Daniel House: Nobody, willing to share their conclusions has more time invested in analyzing this football team that you do...what's your bet on the number of wins and how did you arrive at that choice? Thanks...
 

Me to...glass half full. New Year's day bowl win and Fleck will actually have a serious chance at a top 20-25 2019 recruiting class.
 

The results will depend on our opponents and not just the additions and subtraction to our team. We have Bill C. weighing in with 7 wins and another report out of Vegas at 7.5. I don't think it's too hard to see a win vs Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern. Sure we could lose all of them. But every team we play this year has their own issues.
 

This line will move. There are only 4-5 folks that would even bet the over so virtually all money will be going on the under.


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I'll take the under. Think odds are better for 7 wins than 8. That's not including bowl game. 2019, if the number is 10, I'll take over.


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7-5 regular season record, so under. Too many questions on offense, specifically at QB and WR, for me to take the over. But, hey, it's college football and maybe this is our year!


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If Fleck - and his staff - are as good as some people think, 8 wins is a definite possibility. But, I am not a bettor. Too many variables I can't control - injuries primarily.

I could see a somewhat slow start to the season, and that will be the key to the number of wins. If they struggle early adapting to the new system, they could possibly lose a couple of games before they figure things out. If they can manage to play through the struggles and sneak out wins in the non-conf games, I really expect to see improvement as the season goes on. The goal is to be playing their best football by the end of the year, when the games matter the most.

So, ironically, as a Fleck skeptic, I'm the one telling people to not freak out if the team takes a while to get in gear.
 

I'd say Vegas put it right on the screws. They make money by making people think. Put a gun to my head, I'd say 7-5 due to a new system being put in place. But that's a play or two away from 8-4 (or 6-6 if you want to go the other way).
 




This line will move. There are only 4-5 folks that would even bet the over so virtually all money will be going on the under.


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Alright Spoofin I think you should go read the post I wrote again. I didn't say only 4-5 people think the Gophers will win 8+ games, I said the same 4-5 posters spam 8+ wins in every thread so it looks like everyone thinks they will win that many. Ironically enough I wasn't even talking about you. I would link it but mods got rid of the thread for some reason.
 

Alright Spoofin I think you should go read the post I wrote again. <b>I didn't say only 4-5 people think the Gophers will win 8+ games, </b>I said the same 4-5 posters spam 8+ wins in every thread. I would link it but mods got rid of the thread for some reason.

Josh stated he "must be the only one who doesn't think we will win 8 games" and you replied, "nah, it's only 4-5 people but they keep posting it over and over". I recall it plain as day.


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Alright Spoofin I think you should go read the post I wrote again. I didn't say only 4-5 people think the Gophers will win 8+ games, I said the same 4-5 posters spam 8+ wins in every thread so it looks like everyone thinks they will win that many. Ironically enough I wasn't even talking about you. I would link it but <b>mods got rid of the thread for some reason.</b>

I share your confusion on why that thread was deleted. It was far from the worst interaction on this board. IMO, the mods felt there was too much skepticism expressed toward our coach - but that would be a tough reason to justify for removal on a message board.


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So many question marks I've no idea. but 7.5 seems like a reasonable choice for Vegas.
 

I am most definitely am one of the 4-5 that believe Fleck get 8+ wins this year. Claeys would have won 9+. LOL, Just stirring the pot .
 

Well, I put my neck on the chopping block early saying "We will roll into Iowa at 7-0" I'm taking the over.
 

Admittedly higher than I thought Vegas would open with (I figured it would open at 6.5). The team could definitely win 8, but if one attaches percentages on the likelihood (that's a weird looking word, but Gopherhole is telling me I spelled it correctly) of 5,6,7,8,9 and 10 wins (pre-bowl) I personally think there is an overall better chance of winning with the "under" with 7 probably being the most likely.
 

Big Ten

Ohio State: 10.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Wisconsin: 10.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Penn State: 10 (Over -110, Under -110)
Michigan: 8.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Northwestern: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Minnesota: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Iowa: 7 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Nebraska: 7 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
Indiana: 6.5 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Michigan State: 5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Illinois: 3.5 (Over EVEN, Under -120)
Maryland: 3 (Over -120, Under EVEN)
Rutgers: 3 (Over -110, Under -110)
Purdue: 2.5 (Over -125, Under +105)


http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...ge-football-win-totals-for-all-130-fbs-teams/
 

Hmmm... does the bowl game count?


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Whys Freaked out Goldy mad at me now? I'm just saying, that bowl game is another chance to get to 8. Even If it counts then I'd say under still anyways though haha. And hope I'm wrong. I'm weird with gambling. My emotional attachment to the teams success is stronger than my attachment to money. I'd rather lose


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Some of you need to buy into the Power of Positive Thinking. Your How will make your Who. Smiles, everyone!

In all seriousness, breaking in a new QB seems to be a major sticking point. While we can't expect a well-oiled machine right away I'm excited to see someone new under center, as far as utilizing the pass. Maybe the two leading candidates can't grasp the offense and Fleck decides to go with the true freshman. Even under that scenario it's difficult to see a passing game significantly worse than last year unless our WR corps (corpse?) has injuries or nobody emerges, which is highly, highly unlikely. Replacing Mitch's rushing production in the red zone is more problematic but if we get Lingen back, use McCrary we should be ok.
 

Whys Freaked out Goldy mad at me now? I'm just saying, that bowl game is another chance to get to 8. Even If it counts then I'd say under still anyways though haha. And hope I'm wrong. I'm weird with gambling. My emotional attachment to the teams success is stronger than my attachment to money. I'd rather lose


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I was just posting that as it is one of those rabbit hole discussions ;)

I don't care how anyone counts it personally.
 

Things I find interesting about the B1G lines:

1. Michigan at 8.5: The over is going to get hammered by casual fans in Vegas and will soon be at 9 or 9.5.
2. Ditto Nebraska at 7.
3. At 7.5, MN was slotted at 6th in the B1G. I have no idea which way this will move. Vegas banking on even casual fans knowing about Fleck.
4. MSU at 5: Wow, how the mighty have fallen. I'm so interested in how their season goes.
 

Things I find interesting about the B1G lines:

1. Michigan at 8.5: The over is going to get hammered by casual fans in Vegas and will soon be at 9 or 9.5.
2. Ditto Nebraska at 7.
3. At 7.5, MN was slotted at 6th in the B1G. I have no idea which way this will move. Vegas banking on even casual fans knowing about Fleck.
4. MSU at 5: Wow, how the mighty have fallen. I'm so interested in how their season goes.

EDIT: I just noticed the CBS article posted above was from Mid-June. Bovada tells me that Michigan is now at 9, with the over at -175. So it'll soon be 9.5. Nebraska is at 7, with over at -150, so soon to be 7.5. Minnesota is not listed.

https://sports.bovada.lv/football/college-season-props

If anybody can find current Vegas odds, I'd be interested...
 

Whys Freaked out Goldy mad at me now? I'm just saying, that bowl game is another chance to get to 8. Even If it counts then I'd say under still anyways though haha. And hope I'm wrong. I'm weird with gambling. My emotional attachment to the teams success is stronger than my attachment to money. I'd rather lose

You're emotionally attached to the team's success yet you don't think the Fleck and company can win 8 games out of 13? Something that they've done 3 of the last 4 years? Don't get me wrong, only winning 7 games in the regular season and losing to a much better team in a Bowl Game wouldn't be a fiasco. Not as long as there were a couple more trophies in the case after the Big Ten season. Though that would be the floor not the ceiling.

Gotta figure that with all the close losses over the last couple of seasons, lost leads, bad game day decisions and Fleck's rep for making good game day decisions, expecting them to end-up over .500 in the regular season and maybe adding to that in a Bowl Game certainly isn't a stretch.

Particularly when they had to play without 5 players plus in what 5 games last year? And they won 4 of them. They ended-up winning 5 more games than they lost. It wasn't an illusion.

Honestly can't see them going 7-6 unless a big run of injuries and coaching mistakes take them down. Not expecting either.
 

EDIT: I just noticed the CBS article posted above was from Mid-June. Bovada tells me that Michigan is now at 9, with the over at -175. So it'll soon be 9.5. Nebraska is at 7, with over at -150, so soon to be 7.5. Minnesota is not listed.

https://sports.bovada.lv/football/college-season-props

If anybody can find current Vegas odds, I'd be interested...

The CBS Sports listing appeared to be the latest listing of all 130 teams.
 


LOL - Some of you are way overthinking this. I will give you clue - Las Vegas is guaranteed to make money if half of the money is placed on both sides of the bet. it is a great business model.
 




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