Connelly on Minnesota: "This Should be Fun!"

swingman

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Bill Connelly, who does the best NCAA previews, very excited about the Gophers.

Likes them better than all but Iowa and Wisconsin in the West. 6th overall in Big Ten. Likes them better than Maryland and MSU; about even with Oregon State. Notes great upside, but also notes depth and transition issues could mean downside as well...4-8 to 9-3 range.

Some of his takes:

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...gophers-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

"The Big Ten West race has an interesting shape this offseason. There’s a clear leader, two clear bottom teams, and who-the-hell-knows in between. Wisconsin 11th, Illinois 85th, Purdue 87th, and the other four between 37th and 48th. Three clear tiers. Northwestern’s experience could make the Wildcats a top-30 team, Nebraska has more upside than its rivals but is replacing two-thirds of last year’s offense, and Fleck’s culture change makes Minnesota a high-variability team within that cluster."

"He won’t have to strip this house to its studs. If this transfusion of energy translates, Minnesota could become the No. 1 contender to Wisconsin’s crown."

"Ciarrocca should like what he has inherited at Minnesota. The combination of stability and experience could be helpful. Those sophomore backs are now juniors, and both Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks had their moments last year."

"Of the eight linemen who started at least one game last year, only four return, but let’s just say Minnesota won’t lack for girth. Not only are all four of those players now upperclassmen (two juniors, two seniors), but they also average 6’5, 325 pounds. And they’re now led by Ed Warinner, Ohio State’s former line coach and one of the best in the business. Minnesota’s run game could get awfully mean, awfully quickly."

"The return of tight end Brandon Lingen will help... He caught 33 balls in 2015 but missed the last 10 games of 2016 with injury."

"If Def Coordinator Smith requires disruption up front to succeed, though, he should find things to like about Minnesota. Tackle Steven Richardson is one of the most active interior guys in the conference; he recorded 11 tackles for loss and seven sacks last year, and opponents distracted by Richardson and Andrew Stelter allowed linebackers Jonathan Celestin and Blake Cashman (combined: 17.5 TFLs, 10 sacks, four breakups, three forced fumbles) to make plays as well... having four upperclassman play-makers is a good place to start. And for what it’s worth, both DeLattiboudere and Tai'yon Devers, another sophomore end, flashed major play-making potential in minimal time — they had just 15 tackles in 2016, but 6.5 of them came behind the line. And a third sophomore, former blue-chip linebacker Carter Coughlin, moved to rush end this spring as well. The potential is massive."

"Depth issues are a funny thing — you never know in advance if they’re going to bite you. If some sophomore ends and a couple of young defensive backs come through, Minnesota’s starting 11 could have all the activity up front and steadiness in the back that Smith requires."

"The return of safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Duke McGhee gives the Gophers steadiness despite the loss of Damarius Travis, but if either gets hurt, Minnesota could find itself relying on freshmen. Though corners Antonio Shenault, Adekunle Ayinde, and Coney Durr saw decent playing time, the best play-makers at CB (Jalen Myrick and KiAnte Hardin, who combined for 18 passes defensed) are gone. Redshirt freshman Kiondre Thomas had a nice spring and could be counted on sooner than later. Like, in Week 1."

"...the Gophers could count on special teams. They ranked sixth in Special Teams S&P+, powered by brilliant place-kicking from Emmit Carpenter (10-for-10 on field goals longer than 40 yards), tremendous returns from Jalen Myrick and KiAnte Hardin, and solid coverage units...
Carpenter’s return alone will likely keep this unit pretty high in the rankings. He’s brilliant, and punter Ryan Santoso isn’t too bad in his own right."

"Even though Claeys did a good job in his lone season, Minnesota did well in bringing Fleck to town, and I’m doubting he’ll end up in a Year Zero situation the way he did at WMU."
 

This reads like "if everything goes right this should be fun" and that kinda applies every year.
 

Bill Connelly, who does the best NCAA previews, very excited about the Gophers.

Yup.

He had Husker fans riled up (no pun intended) yesterday by suggesting they would win fewer than nine games.
 

The best time of the year! Gophers win big 10 west and the Vikings are in the superbowl. I'm enjoying the ride.
 

Yeah, the Nebraska preview headline was "How patient are Nebraska fans?" Overall, seemed pessimistic on Huskers.

He seems to like Gophers better than Northwestern, which many of the other prognosticators differ on.

Also, he was very down on Sparty: "Michigan State is in rebuilding mode ... after going 3-9."

Other Connelly headlines:

"Oregon State is getting somewhere, but that’s a nasty schedule"
"Maryland is building, but 2017’s going to hide that."
"Lovie’s Illinois was all-or-nothing. When will it be something?"
"Purdue made a great hire! Now what?"
"Rutgers might look like a Big Ten team by 2018"
 


Well, the gauntlet has been thrown down: 7 regular season wins. Obviously all the caveats apply - are you a pessimist or optimist?

Those win probabilities and margins are pretty exciting. Many competitive games are projected.
 

"<b>Summary: </b>Fleck’s first Gophers will be sturdy, thin, and capable of anything between 3-9 and 9-3."

Hard to be wrong with a 6-game swing in your prediction.


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Is Coney Durr going to be ready to play at the beginning of the season?
 

I liked the headline:

P.J. Fleck’s first Minnesota team is a Big Ten West wildcard

 



"<b>Summary: </b>Fleck’s first Gophers will be sturdy, thin, and capable of anything between 3-9 and 9-3."

Hard to be wrong with a 6-game swing in your prediction.


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That's the genius of it!
 

And the corollary to the summary above is if we underachieve and win 3 games it's b/c new coach, new scheme, new culture. If we win 9 or 10 it's because Fleck is a motivational genius. Year 1 honeymoon.
 

And the corollary to the summary above is if we underachieve and win 3 games it's b/c new coach, new scheme, new culture. If we win 9 or 10 it's because Fleck is a motivational genius. Year 1 honeymoon.
Pretty standard stuff with a new coach
 

As I read the article, the guy seems to be saying that it all comes down to injuries, due to the depth concerns. If the Gophers stay healthy, and they get a few breaks, up to 9 wins is possible. But, if there are a lot of injuries, or injuries at key positions, it could potentially be a 3 or 4 win season. Personally, I think he sets the floor a little low, but I really can't argue with any of his conclusions.

The other point he makes is that the West division could go a lot of different ways, depending on the outcome of the 'toss-up' games. And, in those toss-up games, it usually winds up with the same factors - turnovers, penalties, and injuries.

I can make a case for the Gophers winning 9 games, but I could also make a case for a 5 or 6-win season. This season is still a mystery, because we still haven't seen a Fleck-coached Gopher team playing a real game. There are so many unknowns that almost any prediction has at least some validity.
 



I predict we stay healthy and win our new normal 9 games.
 

I am not very optimistic about competing big time but I could see us slipping into a bowl or just missing one. Oregon St is a big game for our bowl potential.
 

I am not very optimistic about competing big time but I could see us slipping into a bowl or just missing one. Oregon St is a big game for our bowl potential.


This. I have been publicly cautious about 2017, but I have to admit that if we start out 2-0 I'll be right back to my delusional, homer self.
 

"<b>Summary: </b>Fleck’s first Gophers will be sturdy, thin, and capable of anything between 3-9 and 9-3."

Hard to be wrong with a 6-game swing in your prediction.

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It's not a prediction, it's a preview piece.

Bill C's S&P numbers do the projecting.
 

It's not a prediction, it's a preview piece.

Bill C's S&P numbers do the projecting.

Hard to be wrong with a 6-game span in your preview piece as well.


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