MSU loses another projected starter

Donate To GopherHole
S

swingman

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 12, 2010
Messages
3,143
Reaction score
2,022
Points
113
EAST LANSING -- Attrition has once again hit the Michigan State roster, and this time it involves the most experienced veteran in Michigan State's secondary.

Cornerback Vayante Copeland is no longer with the program, Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio confirmed on Tuesday.

Dantonio said he was unable to provide any more details.

"There's certain things you've got to be able to make as you process yourself through from a junior to a senior," Dantonio said. "We wish Vayante the best, but he's not going to be able to be here."

In Copeland, Michigan State loses a cornerback who had started seven games over the last two seasons.

As a redshirt freshman in 2015, Copeland started the first two games of the season before suffering a fractured vertebra against Oregon.

He played in seven games last year, including five starts.

Copeland participated in Michigan State' Spring game. Earlier this year, he received a third chance to enter a court-sponsored diversionary program after being charged with marijuana possession in 2015.

Copeland's departure creates another hole in a Michigan State secondary that was already in flux. The Spartans already lost safety Montae Nicholson to the NFL, along with senior starters Demetrious Cox and Darian Hicks to graduation.

The number of underclassmen to leave Michigan State with eligibility remaining this offseason now stands at 11.

Four of those players were dismissed after being charged with sexual assault: Donnie Corley, Josh King, Auston Robertson and Demetric Vance. .Malik McDowell and Montae Nicholson left for the NFL. Linebacker Jon Reschke departed after making what he called an insensitive comment about a former teammate.

Offensive lineman Thiyo Lukusa left after saying he didn't enjoy football anymore. Safety Kenney Lyke left after falling one credit shy of graduating. Defensive backs Drake Martinez and Kaleel Gaines also left Michigan State without reasons given.
 

It's starting to feel like MSU is headed for another sub .500 season...
 

Not knowing how high on the depth chart or what positions (cue swingman) all these guys are it's harder to gauge the impact but they lost at least 5 or 6 of their four stars from that very highly ranked recruiting class IIRC. It's probably hard to put any sort of positive spin on events. That said, MSU has talent, a very good coach so until I see them fall flat or they can't field a position group I'll be wary. They have been winning for years with less than top shelf talent.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Not knowing how high on the depth chart or what positions (cue swingman) all these guys are it's harder to gauge the impact but they lost at least 5 or 6 of their four stars from that very highly ranked recruiting class IIRC. It's probably hard to put any sort of positive spin on events. That said, MSU has talent, a very good coach so until I see them fall flat or they can't field a position group I'll be wary. They have been winning for years with less than top shelf talent.
Click to expand...

That continues to be a misnomer with Michigan St. 3 of their last 4 recruiting classes were ranked in the top 25. They are firmly in that second teir of talent behind Ohio St, but similar to Michigan, Penn St, and Nebraska.
 

I would not take MSU lightly either. In spite of losing those guys, they have much more talent and can possibly withstand the loses more than the Gophers losing five players (4 expulsions and 1 suspension). They are well coached.

It certainly isn't going to be a "gimmie" when they meet at The Bank on October 14.

If the Gophers can pull off a victory, it will be a milestone win for the program under PJF.
 


It just seems like in today's college FB scene, there is more movement than ever before. Grad transfers; undergraduate transfers; players leaving for medical reasons; players leaving for legal reasons; etc.

Programs that can maintain a sense of continuity may very well have an advantage.

Obviously, the Gophers took a hit on continuity with suspensions and transfers.

It's going to be very interesting to watch the first few games this year - both to evaluate how the team looks with a new offense and defense, and to see how they fill the holes that were left by graduation, transfers and suspensions. this could be one of those years where there is a lot a change or position shuffling from game #1 to game #12.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
That continues to be a misnomer with Michigan St. 3 of their last 4 recruiting classes were ranked in the top 25. They are firmly in that second teir of talent behind Ohio St, but similar to Michigan, Penn St, and Nebraska.
Click to expand...

To a certain extent, but relative to where Sparty ended up being ranked in five of the last 7 years, I agree with PE. Talented but definitely over achieved as well.
 

PMWinSTP said:
To a certain extent, but relative to where Sparty ended up being ranked in five of the last 7 years, I agree with PE. Talented but definitely over achieved as well.
Click to expand...

Sure they've overachieved slightly. But averaging over the last 7 years they're tied with Penn St for 4th best in the conference in recruiting. Only Ohio St, Michigan, and Nebraska are higher, with Nebraska and Michigan only slightly higher. Plus Nebraska, Michigan, and Penn St all went through coaching changes over the past 3 years. So that leaves Michigan St as the most talented team with the most consistent coaching outside of Ohio St.

Minnesota's recruiting is ranked 11 of 12 in the B1G over the past 7 years, with only Purdue being worse. I didn't include Maryland and Rutgers since they were only in the B1G 4 of those 7 years. Regardless of who Michigan St or Nebraska are losing, they are still significantly more talented than the Gophers on paper. Does that mean the Gophers can't beat them? No. Recruiting doesn't tell the whole story, but it tells you about 75% of the story.

But this is why I continue to laugh whenever people want to say they Gophers are loaded in talent. They are not, especially on offense. They are in the bottom 1/4th of talent in the conference. Kill and Claeys were good on getting the most out of what they had, and good from an X's and O's standpoint, especially on defense. Fleck is a better recruiter and will get better talent to Minnesota. Is he a better game day coach? I think he can be, but that's the biggest question in my mind on whether Fleck will succeed here.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Sure they've overachieved slightly. But averaging over the last 7 years they're tied with Penn St for 4th best in the conference in recruiting. Only Ohio St, Michigan, and Nebraska are higher, with Nebraska and Michigan only slightly higher. Plus Nebraska, Michigan, and Penn St all went through coaching changes over the past 3 years. So that leaves Michigan St as the most talented team with the most consistent coaching outside of Ohio St.

Minnesota's recruiting is ranked 11 of 12 in the B1G over the past 7 years, with only Purdue being worse. I didn't include Maryland and Rutgers since they were only in the B1G 4 of those 7 years. Regardless of who Michigan St or Nebraska are losing, they are still significantly more talented than the Gophers on paper. Does that mean the Gophers can't beat them? No. Recruiting doesn't tell the whole story, but it tells you about 75% of the story.

But this is why I continue to laugh whenever people want to say they Gophers are loaded in talent. They are not, especially on offense. They are in the bottom 1/4th of talent in the conference. Kill and Claeys were good on getting the most out of what they had, and good from an X's and O's standpoint, especially on defense. Fleck is a better recruiter and will get better talent to Minnesota. Is he a better game day coach? I think he can be, but that's the biggest question in my mind on whether Fleck will succeed here.
Click to expand...

Better be a better game day coach. In the big 10. Claeys and kill proved themselves.
 



BarnBurner said:
Better be a better game day coach. In the big 10. Claeys and kill proved themselves.
Click to expand...

Yes they proved themselves to an average finish of 4.5 in the B1G West over 6 years and lost to Wisconsin by double digits every year.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
That continues to be a misnomer with Michigan St. 3 of their last 4 recruiting classes were ranked in the top 25. They are firmly in that second teir of talent behind Ohio St, but similar to Michigan, Penn St, and Nebraska.
Click to expand...

What? Dantonio has been there since 2007. Prior to that their records were surprisingly very similar to the Gophers. Saban had some mediocre seasons and left after a 10-2 year in 1999. Saban's successors were overall remarkably mediocre. Since Dantonio arrived they've exploded. I will list their recruiting rank followed by a list of good seasons. Tell me which numbers are (significantly) higher. He has overachieved by a good mile, even with the top 25 classes taken into account.

Recruiting rank:
2005: 35
2006: 33
2007: 42
2008: 47
2009: 17
2010: 30
2011: 31
2012: 41
2013: 40
2014: 22
2015: 22
2016: 18

Record and final AP ranking (9 wins or higher)

2008: 9-4. 24th
2010: 11-2 14th
2011: 11-3 11th
2013: 13-1 3rd Rose
2014: 11-2 4th Cotton
2015: 12-2 6th CFP
 

Sparty

Sparty's biggest question mark will be the defensive line. That's where they've taken the biggest hit with the off-field issues, and that already was a weak area from last year. If they can't get to the QB like they usually do (last year an exception), the secondary is going to get exploited.

Linebackers should be solid (Frey, Dowell, etc.), and I think they'll be decent on offense. Lewerke has promise as a dual threat QB, and running game strong with LJ Scott and Gerald Holmes.

Tough schedule with Ohio State & Michigan on the road, and crossovers Iowa, @ Gophers, and @ Northwestern. 7-5 would be a pretty nice bounce-back season with all that's happened. All things considered bowl game (6-6) would be a reachable expectation, and step in the right direction.

Top priority, however, is right the ship off the field. Dantonio has taken several steps in that regard.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
What? Dantonio has been there since 2007. Prior to that their records were surprisingly very similar to the Gophers. Saban had some mediocre seasons and left after a 10-2 year in 1999. Saban's successors were overall remarkably mediocre. Since Dantonio arrived they've exploded. I will list their recruiting rank followed by a list of good seasons. Tell me which numbers are (significantly) higher. He has overachieved by a good mile, even with the top 25 classes taken into account.

Recruiting rank:
2005: 35
2006: 33
2007: 42
2008: 47
2009: 17
2010: 30
2011: 31
2012: 41
2013: 40
2014: 22
2015: 22
2016: 18

Record and final AP ranking (9 wins or higher)

2008: 9-4. 24th
2010: 11-2 14th
2011: 11-3 11th
2013: 13-1 3rd Rose
2014: 11-2 4th Cotton
2015: 12-2 6th CFP
Click to expand...

Agreed. I tried to explain it. As usual, GWG came back with qualifiers.
 



Pompous Elitist said:
What? Dantonio has been there since 2007. Prior to that their records were surprisingly very similar to the Gophers. Saban had some mediocre seasons and left after a 10-2 year in 1999. Saban's successors were overall remarkably mediocre. Since Dantonio arrived they've exploded. I will list their recruiting rank followed by a list of good seasons. Tell me which numbers are (significantly) higher. He has overachieved by a good mile, even with the top 25 classes taken into account.

Recruiting rank:
2005: 35
2006: 33
2007: 42
2008: 47
2009: 17
2010: 30
2011: 31
2012: 41
2013: 40
2014: 22
2015: 22
2016: 18

Record and final AP ranking (9 wins or higher)

2008: 9-4. 24th
2010: 11-2 14th
2011: 11-3 11th
2013: 13-1 3rd Rose
2014: 11-2 4th Cotton
2015: 12-2 6th CFP
Click to expand...

Weird why'd you fail to list the mediocre and bad years?

I've posted the comparison before and started it 2011 to compare the Kill/Clayes era of recruiting to performance. Plus that is when the divisions started and Nebraska joined the B1G.

Since 2011, Michigan State has on average finished with the 4th best recruiting class overall in the conference. Their average overall finish in the B1G since 2011? Also 4th. However it was 2.4 before their terrible season last year

PMWinSTP said:
Agreed. I tried to explain it. As usual, GWG came back with qualifiers.
Click to expand...

What qualifiers? That you don't understand simple statistics? Everything I posted is fact.
 

Why start at 2011? We are talking about body of work. If you can't understand 4th best in the Big Ten does not equate to finishing 3rd, 4th, and 6th in the country I can't help you. Those rankings were built primarily on non top shelf recruits. Just admit he overachieved. This is bordering on Cruze level debate.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Why start at 2011? We are talking about body of work. If you can't understand 4th best in the Big Ten does not equate to finishing 3rd, 4th, and 6th in the country I can't help you. Those rankings were built primarily on non top shelf recruits. Just admit he overachieved. This is bordering on Cruze level debate.
Click to expand...

I said he overachieved slightly overall. But it's an average over the long term, and against teams they play the most: The B1G. Did they overachieve some years? Yes. Did they underachieved some years? Yes. Overall they averaged out about where they should. Your statistical comprehension is bordering on PMWwinSTP level.

I already gave you my reasonings for starting in 2011.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I said he overachieved slightly overall. But it's an average over the long term, and against teams they play the most: The B1G. Did they overachieve some years? Yes. Did they underachieved some years? Yes. Overall they averaged out about where they should. Your statistical comprehension is bordering on PMWwinSTP level.

I already gave you my reasonings for starting in 2011.
Click to expand...

90 days from now we will know more. Big 10 is coming pj. Best be prepared.

No excuses. Just win. Should win at least 8 this season.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Weird why'd you fail to list the mediocre and bad years?

I've posted the comparison before and started it 2011 to compare the Kill/Clayes era of recruiting to performance. Plus that is when the divisions started and Nebraska joined the B1G.

Since 2011, Michigan State has on average finished with the 4th best recruiting class overall in the conference. Their average overall finish in the B1G since 2011? Also 4th. However it was 2.4 before their terrible season last year



What qualifiers? That you don't understand simple statistics? Everything I posted is fact.
Click to expand...

Ummm, see post #15.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
What? Dantonio has been there since 2007. Prior to that their records were surprisingly very similar to the Gophers. Saban had some mediocre seasons and left after a 10-2 year in 1999. Saban's successors were overall remarkably mediocre. Since Dantonio arrived they've exploded. I will list their recruiting rank followed by a list of good seasons. Tell me which numbers are (significantly) higher. He has overachieved by a good mile, even with the top 25 classes taken into account.

Recruiting rank:
2005: 35 7/11
2006: 33 8/11
2007: 42 7/11
2008: 47 8/11
2009: 17 4/11
2010: 30 4/11
2011: 31 6/11
2012: 41 5/12
2013: 40 5/12
2014: 22 4/12
2015: 22 3/14
2016: 18 3/14

Record and final AP ranking (9 wins or higher)

2007: 7-6 32nd per S&P+
2008: 9-4. 24th
2009: 6-7 23rd per S&P
2010: 11-2 14th
2011: 11-3 11th
2012: 7-6 15th per S&P
2013: 13-1 3rd Rose
2014: 11-2 4th Cotton
2015: 12-2 6th CFP
2016: 3-9 57th per S&P
Click to expand...

I've added in the Big Ten recruiting rankings. Remember Nebraska joined summer of 2011 and Rutgers/MD for 2014.

I added in all of Dantonio's seasons for sake of completeness, and the S&P+ rank for that year since they were not AP ranked. Turns out the analytics like them better than their record.

Generally the analytics guys seem to look at the prior 4-5 years of recruiting when they punch the variables into their algorithms. Their Rose Bowl squad, for example was made up of mid-ranked recruiting classes.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I've added in the Big Ten recruiting rankings. Remember Nebraska joined summer of 2011 and Rutgers/MD for 2014.

I added in all of Dantonio's seasons for sake of completeness, and the S&P+ rank for that year since they were not AP ranked. Turns out the analytics like them better than their record.

Generally the analytics guys seem to look at the prior 4-5 years of recruiting when they punch the variables into their algorithms. Their Rose Bowl squad, for example was made up of mid-ranked recruiting classes.
Click to expand...

Even when you factor in all of Dantonio's years and break it down by only the B1G, their average recruiting rank: 5.33. Their average finish: 4.1. Since we went to divisions in 2011, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, and Minnesota all have overachieved by more relative to their recruiting ranking, but part of that is because they play in the west.

It gets more difficult trying to break it down nationally. Take the 2016 recruiting rankings for example, the 12th place SEC team Misssissippi St, would have finished 6th in the B1G, but someone has to lose in the SEC. And I like S&P quite a bit, and like most metrics, it tells a big part of the story, but not the whole story.

No way do I believe the 2012 7-6 Michigan St team who lost at home to 4-8 Iowa, was a top 15 team. Nor do I believe the 2009 team that went 6-7 losing to Central Michigan, a 6-6 Weis led Notre Dame team, and a 6-7 Brewster led Minnesota team was still a top 25 team.

If you want to say that Dantonio overachieved more in his earlier seasons, I'll give you that. But his recruiting continues to get better. I think a lot of people on here want to believe the talent level at Michigan St. or even Nebraska is similar to Minnesota or Iowa, which it's not. Michigan St and Nebraska's talent is far more comparable to Michigan and Penn St. That's why Michigan St is able to rise up and win the conference every few years, and why Nebraska fans continue to be frustrated they can't get more than 9 wins.
 

It's not just me...you're on a lonely island.

Sporting News: Michigan State 'biggest overachieving' Power 5 program

EAST LANSING -- Big Ten football champion Michigan State has done more with less than any program in the nation, according to Sporting News' ranking of the "five biggest overachieving programs" among Power 5 schools.

The Spartans rank with Alabama as the only schools to finish in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 poll rankings the past three seasons, and coach Mark Dantonio has managed to do so without the benefit of a consensus top 20 recruiting class in his tenure.

http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2016/02/sporting_news_football_recruit.html
 

Pompous Elitist said:
It's not just me...you're on a lonely island.

Sporting News: Michigan State 'biggest overachieving' Power 5 program

EAST LANSING -- Big Ten football champion Michigan State has done more with less than any program in the nation, according to Sporting News' ranking of the "five biggest overachieving programs" among Power 5 schools.

The Spartans rank with Alabama as the only schools to finish in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 poll rankings the past three seasons, and coach Mark Dantonio has managed to do so without the benefit of a consensus top 20 recruiting class in his tenure.

http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2016/02/sporting_news_football_recruit.html
Click to expand...

I guess the Gophers really have no chance to beat them this year then since they are such overachievers and have now been reeling in top 25 recruiting classes. ;)
 

I never said that. I think we have a good chance to beat them. This entire argument has been a result of your dismissal of the notion MSU has overachieved. They were bad last year, relatively, but they had some close losses and it reminds me a lot of TCU coming off that bad season in 2013. Their record wasn't really a reflection of reality. They went on to nearly make the CFP.

This is a recent article from Bill Connelly. He lists over and underachieving coaches based on his projections. I think he used a limited sample, maybe last 3 yrs. Some of the results may be surprising or uncomfortable.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...ootball-coaching-underachievers-overachievers

For preview purposes, I note when teams strayed pretty far from their win expectations, one way or the other, and in 2016 two teams strayed really far from expectations: Idaho overachieved by 2.3 wins, and Notre Dame underachieved by 3.2 wins, the fourth-highest (lowest?) in 12 years.

From year to year, this is a sign of randomness. The teams on the extreme ends are all but guaranteed to regress (or progress) toward the mean the next year. Notre Dame was the fourth team to underachieve its second-order win total by at least three games; the other Power 5 team on that list: 2013 TCU, which improved from 4-8 to 12-1 the next season.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Even when you factor in all of Dantonio's years and break it down by only the B1G, their average recruiting rank: 5.33. Their average finish: 4.1. Since we went to divisions in 2011, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, and Minnesota all have overachieved by more relative to their recruiting ranking, but part of that is because they play in the west.

It gets more difficult trying to break it down nationally. Take the 2016 recruiting rankings for example, the 12th place SEC team Misssissippi St, would have finished 6th in the B1G, but someone has to lose in the SEC. And I like S&P quite a bit, and like most metrics, it tells a big part of the story, but not the whole story.

No way do I believe the 2012 7-6 Michigan St team who lost at home to 4-8 Iowa, was a top 15 team. Nor do I believe the 2009 team that went 6-7 losing to Central Michigan, a 6-6 Weis led Notre Dame team, and a 6-7 Brewster led Minnesota team was still a top 25 team.

If you want to say that Dantonio overachieved more in his earlier seasons, I'll give you that. But his recruiting continues to get better. I think a lot of people on here want to believe the talent level at Michigan St. or even Nebraska is similar to Minnesota or Iowa, which it's not. Michigan St and Nebraska's talent is far more comparable to Michigan and Penn St. That's why Michigan St is able to rise up and win the conference every few years, and why Nebraska fans continue to be frustrated they can't get more than 9 wins.
Click to expand...

The qualifier.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I never said that. I think we have a good chance to beat them. This entire argument has been a result of your dismissal of the notion MSU has overachieved. They were bad last year, relatively, but they had some close losses and it reminds me a lot of TCU coming off that bad season in 2013. Their record wasn't really a reflection of reality. They went on to nearly make the CFP.

This is a recent article from Bill Connelly. He lists over and underachieving coaches based on his projections. I think he used a limited sample, maybe last 3 yrs. Some of the results may be surprising or uncomfortable.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...ootball-coaching-underachievers-overachievers

For preview purposes, I note when teams strayed pretty far from their win expectations, one way or the other, and in 2016 two teams strayed really far from expectations: Idaho overachieved by 2.3 wins, and Notre Dame underachieved by 3.2 wins, the fourth-highest (lowest?) in 12 years.

From year to year, this is a sign of randomness. The teams on the extreme ends are all but guaranteed to regress (or progress) toward the mean the next year. Notre Dame was the fourth team to underachieve its second-order win total by at least three games; the other Power 5 team on that list: 2013 TCU, which improved from 4-8 to 12-1 the next season.
Click to expand...

Classic MO of GWG...pivot to something else. Some sort of personal dig usually comes next...
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I never said that. I think we have a good chance to beat them. This entire argument has been a result of your dismissal of the notion MSU has overachieved. They were bad last year, relatively, but they had some close losses and it reminds me a lot of TCU coming off that bad season in 2013. Their record wasn't really a reflection of reality. They went on to nearly make the CFP.

This is a recent article from Bill Connelly. He lists over and underachieving coaches based on his projections. I think he used a limited sample, maybe last 3 yrs. Some of the results may be surprising or uncomfortable.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...ootball-coaching-underachievers-overachievers

For preview purposes, I note when teams strayed pretty far from their win expectations, one way or the other, and in 2016 two teams strayed really far from expectations: Idaho overachieved by 2.3 wins, and Notre Dame underachieved by 3.2 wins, the fourth-highest (lowest?) in 12 years.

From year to year, this is a sign of randomness. The teams on the extreme ends are all but guaranteed to regress (or progress) toward the mean the next year. Notre Dame was the fourth team to underachieve its second-order win total by at least three games; the other Power 5 team on that list: 2013 TCU, which improved from 4-8 to 12-1 the next season.
Click to expand...

I said they are slight overachievers relative to the rest of the B1G since 2011 when they went to divisions. That's true. It's much easier to compare them to the rest of the B1G than it is nationally.

Look at their 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons where they finished in the top 6 rankings nationally. In 2013 and 2014 only 3 B1G teams finished ranked: Ohio St, Michigan St, and Wisconsin. They didn't even play Wisconsin in either of those years, and they split with Ohio St. Teams like Michigan and Penn St were mediocre to bad.

Then in 2015, the B1G was perceived to be stronger, with teams like Iowa in the Rose Bowl and Northwestern being ranked. But Michigan St, Iowa, and Northwestern were all destroyed in their bowl games. If Michigan St played those same seasons in the SEC, do I think they would have finished in the top 6? No I don't.

And since you used S&P for the bad years, why didn't you use it for the good years? That also changes things quite a bit to where they were never higher than 10.

S&P
2013: 22
2014: 10
2015: 14
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I said they are slight overachievers relative to the rest of the B1G since 2011 when they went to divisions. That's true. It's much easier to compare them to the rest of the B1G than it is nationally.

Look at their 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons where they finished in the top 6 rankings nationally. In 2013 and 2014 only 3 B1G teams finished ranked: Ohio St, Michigan St, and Wisconsin. They didn't even play Wisconsin in either of those years, and they split with Ohio St. Teams like Michigan and Penn St were mediocre to bad.

Then in 2015, the B1G was perceived to be stronger, with teams like Iowa in the Rose Bowl and Northwestern being ranked. But Michigan St, Iowa, and Northwestern were all destroyed in their bowl games. If Michigan St played those same seasons in the SEC, do I think they would have finished in the top 6? No I don't.

And since you used S&P for the bad years, why didn't you use it for the good years? That also changes things quite a bit to where they were never higher than 10.

S&P
2013: 22
2014: 10
2015: 14
Click to expand...

Your S&P+ numbers prove my point. The recruiting classes that made up those teams were lower ranked than the final product.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Your S&P+ numbers prove my point. The recruiting classes that made up those teams were lower ranked than the final product.
Click to expand...

Not really, you're trying to cherry pick and mix and match data to prove your point. I said all along they are slight overachievers. You've argued with me and posted an article that states they are the biggest overachievers.

In order to use recruiting rankings as a predictor of success, you have to keep the data as consistent as possible. I started with only the B1G, because recruiting rankings are cut and dry, and so are the final standings in the B1G. When you try to rank the teams nationally, it becomes much more ambiguous and based more off of opinion.

But we can do it nationally based solely off of S&P for the Dantonio era. You also need to include the 2004 class, as they were seniors in Dantonio's first year as a head coach in 2007. I know you didn't originally include that class because it was ranked 16th in the country.

First number is recruiting rank, second number is S&P rank.
2004: 16
2005: 35
2006: 33
2007: 42 32
2008: 47 23
2009: 17 23
2010: 30 29
2011: 31 16
2012: 41 15
2013: 40 22
2014: 22 10
2015: 22 14
2016: 18 57

Average Recruiting ranking: 30
Average Overall S&P ranking: 24

Did they overachieve? Yes, but I would consider 6 spots a slight overachievement. Is it skewed by last season? Yes, their average finish was 20th if you remove last season. But as I mentioned before, S&P isn't perfect either considering their 6 and 7 win seasons were ranked 23rd and 15th. But that's the ambiguity that comes into play when trying to rank nationally and why I started with B1G only.

Their 4 year recruiting rank average coming into this season is 24, the highest in the Dantonio era.
 


You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom