Gopherhole's Sports Huddle Recap: Coach P.J. Fleck - 4/23/2017

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13 active Gophers in NFL currently, 7 active Broncos
 

PMWinSTP said:
OK...who currently has more players in the NFL, WMU or Gophs?
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That's a moot point for now as I said this year's Western Michigan's offense was more talented than the Gophers offense. Neither team has had the opportunity to have those players drafted or signed yet. A couple of years from now when everyone graduates who played on offense in 2016, I'll bet there are more WMU players in the NFL than the Gophers.
 

I was curious of how well NFL talent in college translates to wins over the past 10 years, so I pulled the numbers.

Below is the number of players each school currently has on a NFL roster. This includes players that were on practice squads.

Ohio St 42
Michigan St 30
Wisconsin 28
Nebraska 28
Penn St 28
Iowa 24
Rutgers 22
Michigan 19
Illinois 17
Purdue 17
Maryland 16
Minnesota 12
Indiana 10
Northwestern 7

Below is the total number of wins over the last 10 years 2006-2015. Does not include last season because those players have not been drafted or signed yet.

Ohio St 112
Wisconsin 98
Michigan St 91
Nebraska 86
Penn St. 85
Iowa 78
Michigan 76
Rutgers 75
Northwestern 70
Maryland 57
Minnesota 54
Illinois 50
Purdue 48
Indiana 44

It is nearly a perfect correlation. You can see the one big outlier is Northwestern where Fitzgerald does more with less than anyone in the B1G, which is why he pretty much has a lifetime contract.

If we throw out Northwestern, there is a sharp cutoff in wins between the top 8 and the bottom 5. However the top 8 teams in NFL talent are still the top 8 teams in wins, in almost the exact same order.
 

Are you talking those who graduated this year and entering the draft or for all who played on offense in 2016?
If the former, you more than likely will be correct, if the later, then it's not so clear cut.
 


GFBfan said:
Are you talking those who graduated this year and entering the draft or for all who played on offense in 2016?
If the former, you more than likely will be correct, if the later, then it's not so clear cut.
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Whichever makes him right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

GFBfan said:
Are you talking those who graduated this year and entering the draft or for all who played on offense in 2016?
If the former, you more than likely will be correct, if the later, then it's not so clear cut.
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I'll say anyone who started last year, including this year's returning starters. I still think WMU wins out.
 

OK. Let's accept - for the sake of argument - the statement that WMU had more offensive talent than the U of M.

So, the question really becomes this - can Fleck and his staff succeed with the level of talent they inherited at the U of MN? Are Fleck and his staff able to "coach up" the MN players and get them to perform at a higher level?

If Fleck and his staff have a good season at the U of MN - with the players they inherited - then that seems to Indicate Fleck is a good coach.

On the other hand, if the Gophers have a bad season next year - that would seem to indicate that Fleck was not able to "coach up" the available talent.

So, if you're a Fleck supporter, you should be rooting for the Gophers to have a good season next year, instead of trying to hold down expectations. Or so it seems to me.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
If Fleck and his staff have a good season at the U of MN - with the players they inherited - then that seems to Indicate Fleck is a good coach.

On the other hand, if the Gophers have a bad season next year - that would seem to indicate that Fleck was not able to "coach up" the available talent.

So, if you're a Fleck supporter, you should be rooting for the Gophers to have a good season next year, instead of trying to hold down expectations. Or so it seems to me.
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By that logic, was Jerry Kill a bad coach because he wasn't able to coach up the players he inherited?

To me, Year 1 is always a transition year and no grand conclusions should be made from it. Sure, all Fleck supporters should hope for a perfect season, but if it doesn't happen it shouldn't reflect negatively on the program's trajectory. A 6 or 7 win season won't mean Fleck is an awful Big Ten coach.
 



Wow, all this related to the original topic?
 

joshvanklomp said:
By that logic, was Jerry Kill a bad coach because he wasn't able to coach up the players he inherited?

To me, Year 1 is always a transition year and no grand conclusions should be made from it. Sure, all Fleck supporters should hope for a perfect season, but if it doesn't happen it shouldn't reflect negatively on the program's trajectory. A 6 or 7 win season won't mean Fleck is an awful Big Ten coach.
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If you wouldn't have cut out the first 2 paragraphs of SONs post in your quote, you may not have missed the entire qualifier of his logic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I was curious of how well NFL talent in college translates to wins over the past 10 years, so I pulled the numbers.

Below is the number of players each school currently has on a NFL roster. This includes players that were on practice squads.

Ohio St 42
Michigan St 30
Wisconsin 28
Nebraska 28
Penn St 28
Iowa 24
Rutgers 22
Michigan 19
Illinois 17
Purdue 17
Maryland 16
Minnesota 12
Indiana 10
Northwestern 7

Below is the total number of wins over the last 10 years 2006-2015. Does not include last season because those players have not been drafted or signed yet.

Ohio St 112
Wisconsin 98
Michigan St 91
Nebraska 86
Penn St. 85
Iowa 78
Michigan 76
Rutgers 75
Northwestern 70
Maryland 57
Minnesota 54
Illinois 50
Purdue 48
Indiana 44

It is nearly a perfect correlation. You can see the one big outlier is Northwestern where Fitzgerald does more with less than anyone in the B1G, which is why he pretty much has a lifetime contract.

If we throw out Northwestern, there is a sharp cutoff in wins between the top 8 and the bottom 5. However the top 8 teams in NFL talent are still the top 8 teams in wins, in almost the exact same order.
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It's a correlation. A "perfect correlation" might be strong. The R-squared is 0.74. See below.
Capture.JPG
 

Word said:
It's a correlation. A "perfect correlation" might be strong. The R-squared is 0.74. See below.
View attachment 4885
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You're right, it is not perfect but it is still a strong correlation. By saying it was perfect I was meaning when you separate the top tier from the bottom tier outside of Northwestern.

The R2 at .74 is also very similar to the correlation between recruiting rankings and wins. Thanks for the plot!
 



#2Gopher said:
Wow, all this related to the original topic?
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Gopher hole forum threads when they go off the rails and you get back to them late:

BYUHuCn.gif
 


GopherWeatherGuy said:
That's a moot point for now as I said this year's Western Michigan's offense was more talented than the Gophers offense. Neither team has had the opportunity to have those players drafted or signed yet. A couple of years from now when everyone graduates who played on offense in 2016, I'll bet there are more WMU players in the NFL than the Gophers.
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So you use it as your criteria to make a point and then say it's moot. Interesting but not surprising. Using your players in the NFL logic, I guess Buffalo, Rice, Ill St, Fla Int, Tulane, Fla Atl, etc., etc., have more talent than WMU. In making your argument, you are basically vastly discounting Fleck's and his WMU staff's coaching ability, and that is directly counter to the prevailing perception of him.
 

PMWinSTP said:
So you use it as your criteria to make a point and then say it's moot. Interesting but not surprising. Using your players in the NFL logic, I guess Buffalo, Rice, Ill St, Fla Int, Tulane, Fla Atl, etc., etc., have more talent than WMU. In making your argument, you are basically vastly discounting Fleck's and his WMU staff's coaching ability, and that is directly counter to the prevailing perception of him.
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Of course you don't get it... To repeat myself I said last year's WMU offense has more NFL talent than the Gophers offense. 2 years down the road when those players have had a chance to get drafted and signed into the NFL, I believe there will be more WMU players than Gophers in the NFL from those offenses. Meaning WMU had more talent. Players in the NFL from previous years did not play on WMU or the Gophers in 2016. Not difficult to understand.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Of course you don't get it... To repeat myself I said last year's WMU offense has more NFL talent than the Gophers offense. 2 years down the road when those players have had a chance to get drafted and signed into the NFL, I believe there will be more WMU players than Gophers in the NFL from those offenses. Meaning WMU had more talent. Players in the NFL from previous years did not play on WMU or the Gophers in 2016. Not difficult to understand.
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Would expect nothing less than this kind of self-serving, self affirming post from you. What a piece of work. As usual, each post has you changing your position just enough to continue your charade.

Even if WMU puts a handful of players in the NFL in the next couple years, it still will not have as many as the schools I listed, none of which are winning programs or P5 schools, like say, Cal and Kansas. With your position, you completely discount the ability of Fleck and his staff to develop players...at WMU and now going forward at the U. If that is your intent, congratulations, I guess.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Would expect nothing less than this kind of self-serving, self affirming post from you. What a piece of work. As usual, each post has you changing your position just enough to continue your charade.

Even if WMU puts a handful of players in the NFL in the next couple years, it still will not have as many as the schools I listed, none of which are winning programs or P5 schools, like say, Cal and Kansas. With your position, you completely discount the ability of Fleck and his staff to develop players...at WMU and now going forward at the U. If that is your intent, congratulations, I guess.
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You still don't get it. What do players that played at the schools you listed years ago have anything to do with the NFL talent on Western Michigan's offense in 2016? Nothing. I don't know why I try to still be nice and explain things to you. Your comprehension and analytic skills are worse than a 5th grader.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
You still don't get it. What do players that played at the schools you listed years ago have anything to do with the NFL talent on Western Michigan's offense in 2016? Nothing. I don't know why I try to still be nice and explain things to you. Your comprehension and analytic skills are worse than a 5th grader.
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True to form, you again pivoted, and when you realize nothing else will work, you resort to unimaginative, playground insults. You are so lost in your ever changing position, you don't even realize how silly you sound. Classic.
 

PMWinSTP said:
True to form, you again pivoted, and when you realize nothing else will work, you resort to unimaginative, playground insults. You are so lost in your ever changing position, you don't even realize how silly you sound. Classic.
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I've said all along that WMU's offense in 2016 was more talented than the Gophers offense in 2016 and the one that PJ is inheriting. There were and still are several pros on that offense including tonights 5th pick in the draft. The Gophers will maybe have 1 or 2. I post this after every time you say PJ is inheriting more talent - which is completely false on offense. The only thing that is pivoting is your brain.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I've said all along that WMU's offense in 2016 was more talented than the Gophers offense in 2016 and the one that PJ is inheriting. There were and still are several pros on that offense including tonights 5th pick in the draft. The Gophers will maybe have 1 or 2. I post this after every time you say PJ is inheriting more talent - which is completely false on offense. The only thing that is pivoting is your brain.
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Posts #47 and #63. Number of players in the NFL. You don't seem to even know what you've posted. Still don't get why you continually discount Fleck's ability to develop players.
 

swingman said:
leading rcvrs at WMU last year:

Corey Davis (247 composite .74 guy), Fleck recruit, starred as true frosh in 2013, 97 catches in 2016
Michael Henry (247 composite .80 guy), previous WMU staff recruit, 23 rcpts as rs frosh in 2013, 63 catches in 2016
Carrington Thompson (unranked guy/d2 transfer from Northwood U to WMU in 2015) 42 catches in 2016

no other rcvr with double digit catches in 2016

leading rcvrs at WMU in 2015:
Daniel Braverman with 108 catches (.80 247 composite guy), previous staff recruit, 2016 Bear draftee
Corey Davis with 90 catches (see above for bio info)
Michael Henry 18 catches (see above for bio info)
Kendrick Roberts with 13 catches, (247 .80 composite), previous staff recruit in '11

only double digit rcvrs in 2015

leading receivers for WMU in 2014
Braverman 86 catches
Davis 78 catches
Darius Phillips 32 catches (.83 247 composite ranking), Fleck recruit in '13, moved to corner in '15
Roberts 16 catches

only double digit rcvrs in 2014

leading rcvrs for WMU in 2013
Davis 67 catches
Roberts 23 catches
Keith 20 catches (.81 247 composite) previous staff '11 recruit

Eric Carter .81 247 guy
Still .81 247 guy
Holland .86
Gentry .83
Register .84
Tyler Johnson .86
Phil Howard .85
Drew Hmielewski .85
Mark Williams .80
AutmanBell .85
VanDyne .83
Douglas .85

Fleck/Simon/Ciarrocca have 12 guys on Gopher roster rated same or higher than their leading rcvrs at WMU last three winning seasons: (Davis .74, Braverman .80, Henry .80, Thompson unranked, Roberts .80).

They don't use a ton of guys at WR; just three guys get most of the targets.

Fleck/Ciarrocca/Simon will be just fine at WR starting off with a platoon of 12 guys rated as high or higher than what they used at WMU. Plus some very nice looking hands at walk-on WR (Morse, Geary, Annexstad, Reger).

Fleck left new guys at WMU with no double digit returning wr's for 2017; it is college football - every team has limited returning experience at some positions every year.
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You read it here first, swingman says 12 current Gophers WRs will be better than the FBS career receiving yards leader, who just was drafted No. 5 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.
 

joshvanklomp said:
You read it here first, swingman says 12 current Gophers WRs will be better than the FBS career receiving yards leader, who just was drafted No. 5 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.
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To be fair he's simply echoing what the stars matter (and they do) crowds say: in general higher ranked recruits and teams tend to do better than lower ranked recruits. If you're a believer in Fleck's ability to mold receivers then he should be able to find some legit talent and develop it into quality receivers. It's fairly unlikely any WR we have (or any team) has will be taken in the top 5 in the next 50 years. It's just not that common. He must be an incredible, freak talent to go that high. It's a high honor. What's his story anyway coming out of HS?
 

PMWinSTP said:
Posts #47 and #63. Number of players in the NFL. You don't seem to even know what you've posted. Still don't get why you continually discount Fleck's ability to develop players.
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Yeah, and it was in response to you from post #45, where I specifically said NFL talent on offense. I know exactly what I post. You can't comprehend.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Yeah, and it was in response to you from post #45, where I specifically said NFL talent on offense. I know exactly what I post. You can't comprehend.
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Gophers have more offense players in the NFL than WMU. Just using your ever evolving position(s).
 




Spoofin said:
I'm not the grammar police, but this is rather amusing in the context of the post.
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Sorry I missed an 'o'.

I'd rather miss that than the simple concept that a team (WMU) who had 4-6 starters on offense in 2016 that will be drafted by the NFL the next two years, had more talent than an offense (MN) who will have 1 or 2 at most drafted into the NFL.
 

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