Will Any Current Commits Get Bumped up to 4 stars?

DISCLAIMER: Please do not turn this thread into the same tired, old discussion on "do stars matter"?

Gopher commits as of 4/20/2017...
Oyenmwen Uzebu
Elijah Teague
Nolan Edmonds
Jornell Manns
Terell Smith
Brennan Armstrong
Benjamin Sapp III
Abi Okonji
Logan Richter
Austin Beier
Tyrik Henderson (added 4/20/2017)
Erik Gibson (added 4/24/2017)

4 stars on Rivals?
Oyenmwen Uzebu, Elijah Teague and Tyrik Henderson are high 3 star guys (5.7) and likely have the best chance at a bump to 4 stars (5.8 rating).
5.7 - Elijah Teague
5.7 - Oyenmwen Uzebu
5.7 - Tyrik Henderson
5.6 - Nolan Edmonds
5.6 - Benjamin Sapp III
5.6 - Brennan Armstrong
5.6 - Jornell Manns
5.5 - Terell Smith
5.5 - Abi Okonji
5.5 - Austin Beier
5.5 - Logan Richter
5.5 - Erik Gibson

4 stars on 247?
A score of 90 is the cutoff for 4 stars on 247. Our highest rated 3 star guys are both 88 (Elijah Teague and Nolan Edmonds).
88 - Elijah Teague
88 - Nolan Edmonds
87 - Oyenmwen Uzebu
87 - Brennan Armstrong
87 - Terell Smith
86 - Jornell Manns
86 - Abi Okonji
85 - Austin Beier
85 - Logan Richter
83 - Tyrik Henderson
81 - Erik Gibson
NR - Benjamin Sapp III

4 stars on 247 Composite?
A score of 0.8901 is the cutoff for 4 stars on 247 Composite. Our highest rated 3 star guys are Oyenmwen Uzebu (0.8640) and Elijah Teague (0.8681).
0.8681 - Elijah Teague
0.8640 - Oyenmwen Uzebu
0.8616 - Brennan Armstrong
0.8575 - Jornell Manns
0.8563 - Nolan Edmonds
0.8560 - Terell Smith
0.8488 - Abi Okonji
0.8484 - Benjamin Sapp III
0.8479 - Austin Beier
0.8470 - Tyrik Henderson
0.8447 - Logan Richter
0.8394 - Erik Gibson


4 stars on Scout?
Scout doesn't distinguish between high/mid/low 3 star rankings, so you have to look at position rankings to get a better idea...
I've come up with my own system of factoring in positional ranking for players with same star ranking.
3.96 - Teague
3.93 - Armstrong
3.93 - Manns
3.91 - Henderson
3.85 - Sapp III
3.82 - Smith
3.76 - Gibson
3.66 - Beier
3.61 - Okonji
3.60 - Uzebu
3.51 - Richter
3.27 - Edmonds


Oyenmwen Uzebu - Top 32 OTs are 4 star or better. Uzebu currently ranked 60th.
Elijah Teague - Top 27 DTs are 4 star or better. Teague currently ranked 30th.
Nolan Edmonds - Top 27 RBs are 4 star or better. Edmonds currently ranked 84th.
Jornell Manns - Top 68 WRs are 4 star or better. Manns currently ranked 76th.
Terell Smith - Top 34 CBs are 4 star or better. Smith currently ranked 50th.
Brennan Armstrong - Top 28 QBs are 4 star or better. Armstrong currently ranked 32nd.
Benjamin Sapp III - Top 34 CBs are 4 star or better. Sapp III currently ranked 47th.
Abi Okonji - Top 30 DEs are 4 star or better. Okonji currently ranked 65th.
Logan Richter - Top 27 DTs are 4 star or better. Richter currently ranked 61st.
Austin Beier - Top 16 OGs are 4 star or better. Beier currently ranked 35th.
Tyrik Henderson - Top 34 CBs are 4 star or better. Henderson currently ranked 42nd.
Erik Gibson - Top 68 WRs are 4 star or better. Gibson currently ranked 97th.

4 stars on ESPN?
A score of 80 is the cutoff for 4 stars. Currently, both Brennan Armstrong (80) and Terell Smith (80) are ranked 4 stars. Elijah Teague, Erik Gibson, and Jornell Manns (79) is right on border.
80 - Terell Smith
80 - Brennan Armstrong
79 - Elijah Teague
79 - Erik Gibson
79 - Jornell Manns
78 - Oyenmwen Uzebu
78 - Austin Beier
77 - Abi Okonji
76 - Logan Richter
75 - Nolan Edmonds
75 - Benjamin Sapp III
NR - Tyrik Henderson



Update from 4/20/2017...
Added Tyrik Henderson to list.
Added ESPN to the list.
Added current star rankings for each recruit for each site.
Oyenmwen Uzebu got his rankings from Scout (3 star) and ESPN (3 star, 78), which dropped his 247 Composite from 0.8739 to 0.8640.
Elijah Teague got his ranking from ESPN (3 star, 79), which upped his 247 Composite from 0.8637 to 0.8681.
Brennan Armstrong got his ranking from ESPN (4 star, 80), which upped his 247 Composite from 0.8529 to 0.8616.
Benny Sapp III got his ranking from ESPN (3 star, 75), which upped his 247 Composite from 0.8444 to 0.8484.
Austin Beier got his ranking from ESPN (3 star, 78), which upped his 247 Composite from 0.8388 to 0.8484.
Logan Richter got his rankin from ESPN (3 star, 76), which upped his 247 Composite from 0.8388 to 0.8447.

Update from 4/24/2017...
Added Erik Gibson

Update from 4/25/2017...
Updated ESPN ratings for Jornell Manns and Erik Gibson.

I would imagine Sapp has a chance - if he can show evaluators that he has completely recovered from his ACL injuries, he has the talent to be a 4-star (as evidenced by his amazing offer list). But that's a pretty big if.

Add Tyrik Henderson to the list.

Johnnyboy18 said:

Add Tyrik Henderson to the list.

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Good call - once the rumors are confirmed, will add to the original post. In the meantime..

Rivals
Tyrik Henderson (5.7)

247
Tyrik Henderson (83)

247 Composite
Tyrik Henderson (0.8396)

Scout
Tyrik Henderson - Top 34 CBs are 4 star or better. Henderson currently ranked 42nd.

I thought it was all about dots?

GopherinPhilly said:

I thought it was all about dots?

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247 Composite "dots" are the number of services that have rated the recruit. I believe Rivals, Scout, 247 and ESPN are the 4 services that go into building a 247 Composite. Many people like to see at least 3 "dots" by a recruit, because they believe the bias of a particular site is lessoned.

GopherinPhilly said:

I thought it was all about dots?

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IALTO


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WinLoseOrTy said:

DISCLAIMER: Please do not turn this thread into the same tired, old discussion on "do stars matter"?

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With all due respect, if you don't want to start a "do stars matter" debate, the proper way to achieve that is to start a new thread titled "Do Stars Matter?" and then ask people not to discuss that topic in the thread.


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Spoofin said:

With all due respect, if you don't want to start a "do stars matter" debate, the proper way to achieve that is to start a new thread titled "Do Stars Matter?" and then ask people not to discuss that topic in the thread.


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Click to expand...

Post of the year!

Our current recruits getting bumped up to 4-stars will be determined by about 5-6 people that don't really have any expertise on building teams. I stand in the camp of the people that say it doesn't really change who the players are. Makes for fun off-season discussions, though. I think Sapp, Teague, and Armstrong are the likeliest candidates, though. I saw something on Twitter about how the Ohio guy (from Scout or 247, I believe) was really arguing to have Armstrong 'bumped up.' Not sure who he has to argue against or what the process is but there's that.

Spoofin said:

With all due respect, if you don't want to start a "do stars matter" debate, the proper way to achieve that is to start a new thread titled "Do Stars Matter?" and then ask people not to discuss that topic in the thread.


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Click to expand...

+1

If it turns out there is strong evidence nothing attracts stars like stars, i.e. bringing in 4 stars helps bring in 4 stars rather than a) winning or b) recruiting acumen, or c) traditional helmet school NFL factory, then it stands to reason the scouting service evaluators will be ripe for "financial incentives" to bump a coach's recruits. It's the way the world works when there are big money contracts at stake.

Armstrong and Smith are 4 stars on ESPN

WinLoseOrTy said:

DISCLAIMER: Please do not turn this thread into the same tired, old discussion on "do stars matter"?

Gopher commits as of 4/19/2017...
Oyenmwen Uzebu
Elijah Teague
Nolan Edmonds
Jornell Manns
Terell Smith
Brennan Armstrong
Benjamin Sapp III
Abi Okonji
Logan Richter
Austin Beier

4 stars on Rivals?
Oyenmwen Uzebu and Elijah Teague are high 3 star guys (5.7) and likely have the best chance at a bump to 4 stars (5.8 rating).

4 stars on 247?
A score of 90 is the cutoff for 4 stars on 247. Our highest rated 3 star guys are both 88 (Elijah Teague and Nolan Edmonds).

4 stars on 247 Composite?
A score of 0.8901 is the cutoff for 4 stars on 247 Composite. Our highest rated 3 star guys are Oyenmwen Uzebu (0.8739) and Elijah Teague (0.8637).

4 stars on Scout?
Scout doesn't distinguish between high/mid/low 3 star rankings, so you have to look at position rankings to get a better idea...
Elijah Teague (3 spots), Brennan Armstrong (4 spots) and Jornell Manns (8 spots) likely have the best chance.

Oyenmwen Uzebu - Top 32 OTs are 4 star or better. Uzebu currently ranked 60th.
Elijah Teague - Top 27 DTs are 4 star or better. Teague currently ranked 30th.
Nolan Edmonds - Top 27 RBs are 4 star or better. Edmonds currently ranked 84th.
Jornell Manns - Top 68 WRs are 4 star or better. Manns currently ranked 76th.
Terell Smith - Top 34 CBs are 4 star or better. Smith currently ranked 50th.
Brennan Armstrong - Top 28 QBs are 4 star or better. Armstrong currently ranked 32nd.
Benjamin Sapp III - Top 34 CBs are 4 star or better. Smith currently ranked 47th.
Abi Okonji - Top 30 DEs are 4 star or better. Okonji currently ranked 65th.
Logan Richter - Top 27 DTs are 4 star or better. Richter currently ranked 61st.
Austin Beier - Top 16 OGs are 4 star or better. Beier currently ranked 35th.

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They're all 6 stars in my book. They chose the best school in the nation.

Stars don't matter.

All of them of course! PJF only recruits "elites" so he already knows who is going to be upgraded.

I'd be willing to bet Teague will if not he will come close he's a horse in the trenches.. I think you will see a couple of our low 3 star guys get bumped up a bit too T Smith is a guy I could see being a high 3 star.. and I think everyone is waiting on Benny Sapp to see if he shows any ill affects from the ACLs if hes back he should see the largest jump.. before his injury he had offers from every blue blood school you could imagine..

NotAFanOfBecky said:

All of them of course! PJF only recruits "elites" so he already knows who is going to be upgraded.

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Correction, they've already been upgraded, they chose to come here....

WinLoseOrTy said:

Good call - once the rumors are confirmed, will add to the original post. In the meantime..

Rivals
Tyrik Henderson (5.7)

247
Tyrik Henderson (83)

247 Composite
Tyrik Henderson (0.8396)

Scout
Tyrik Henderson - Top 34 CBs are 4 star or better. Henderson currently ranked 42nd.

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Interesting. Rivals has him as a high 3 (5.7) as does Scout - if there are 30 or so 4 star CB commits it is reasonable to think the 3 star tier is significantly larger, and being at position 42 correlates to a high 3 star.

However, the "247 composite", already demonstrated to use black magic as an algorithm ingredient, has him at .8396, which I assume to mean he is approximately an 84 average and 247 just decided to not multiply by 100 and drop the last two mysterious digits. I believe an Alabama grad owns the website? Anyway, it also implies they weight their own rating much higher than other services, or maybe they're waiting on that last dot, or they assign each Scout 3 star a flat value rather than their position rank.

Pompous Elitist said:

Interesting. Rivals has him as a high 3 (5.7) as does Scout - if there are 30 or so 4 star CB commits it is reasonable to think the 3 star tier is significantly larger, and being at position 42 correlates to a high 3 star.

However, the "247 composite", already demonstrated to use black magic as an algorithm ingredient, has him at .8396, which I assume to mean he is approximately an 84 average and 247 just decided to not multiply by 100 and drop the last two mysterious digits. I believe an Alabama grad owns the website? Anyway, it also implies they weight their own rating much higher than other services, or maybe they're waiting on that last dot, or they assign each Scout 3 star a flat value rather than their position rank.

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I think scout is a flat value

Johnnyboy18 said:

I think scout is a flat value

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If Scout is assessing a position ranking then that makes little sense on 247s part. Then again, their scouting service has been spotty at best. It seems to be literally like that scene in Moneyball, except the guys are probably really young instead of old, and they sit around on Google+ arguing, and sensitive to social media pressure. Some of their frantic up and down re-ratings, eg Snelson, were just comical.

Pompous Elitist said:

Interesting. Rivals has him as a high 3 (5.7) as does Scout - if there are 30 or so 4 star CB commits it is reasonable to think the 3 star tier is significantly larger, and being at position 42 correlates to a high 3 star.

However, the "247 composite", already demonstrated to use black magic as an algorithm ingredient, has him at .8396, which I assume to mean he is approximately an 84 average and 247 just decided to not multiply by 100 and drop the last two mysterious digits. I believe an Alabama grad owns the website? Anyway, it also implies they weight their own rating much higher than other services, or maybe they're waiting on that last dot, or they assign each Scout 3 star a flat value rather than their position rank.

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From 247 site...

All major media services share an equal percentage in the 247Sports Composite Rating.

The composite index equally weights this percentage among the services that participate in a ranking for that specific prospect.

A composite strength meter, indicated by red bars, illustrates the total number of industry services that have ranked the prospect. A full strength meter indicates the prospect has been ranked by all industry services participating in the composite.

All industry services have a different philosophy on number of "stars" distributed with each class. The 247Sports Composite Rating assigns stars based on an approximate average distribution of stars from the industry.

ESPN updated many of their rankings yesterday, and Brennan Armstrong and Terrell Smith are 4-stars.

Johnnyboy18 said:

Armstrong and Smith are 4 stars on ESPN

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Thanks for the heads up, I added ESPN to the post now.

WinLoseOrTy said:

From 247 site...

All major media services share an equal percentage in the 247Sports Composite Rating.

The composite index equally weights this percentage among the services that participate in a ranking for that specific prospect.

A composite strength meter, indicated by red bars, illustrates the total number of industry services that have ranked the prospect. A full strength meter indicates the prospect has been ranked by all industry services participating in the composite.

All industry services have a different philosophy on number of "stars" distributed with each class. The 247Sports Composite Rating assigns stars based on an approximate average distribution of stars from the industry.

Click to expand...

Yep, and it still doesn't explain their algorithm or why they apparently don't properly assign Scout rankings. I wouldn't put much stock in the 247 Composite until it's fixed.

Pompous Elitist said:

Yep, and it still doesn't explain their algorithm or why they apparently don't properly assign Scout rankings. I wouldn't put much stock in the 247 Composite until it's fixed.

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The problem is Scout itself doesn't distinguish between a high or low 3 star. Now, when calculating their team rankings, they do take into account stars + positional ranking. But for an individual player, you won't find it.

247 Composite could try to assign a value based upon Scouts stars + positional ranking, but why would they want to do the legwork that apparently Scout won't do itself?

It's not that difficult- to make the 247 Composite more accurate take the pool of Scout 3 star players and their position ranking and divide into tiers that correlate to the 247 or Rivals rankings. They can also adjust proportion of each position group relative to their own scale.

Based on their composite "average" ( I have no idea how they come up with their number) it seems they are assigning a value of around 82 to the Scout rating, on the 247 scale, to come up with that 247 average. That seems a bit low considering Scout and Rivals rate him a high 3 star at his position.

I understand what you are saying, and I completely agree it should be improved. I just think it should be improved by Scout. Its their shortcoming as a recruiting site. When I go to Scout and click on Gophers commit list, I get zero sense of who they like more than others, because they are all 3 stars. I can look at the positional ranking, but I don't know how many they ranked for that position and where the cutoffs are. Its just a lot of work for the customer to figure out something as simple as high/mid/low 3 star.

highwayman said:

Stars don't matter.

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Only dots or decimal points.

WinLoseOrTy said:

I understand what you are saying, and I completely agree it should be improved. I just think it should be improved by Scout. Its their shortcoming as a recruiting site. When I go to Scout and click on Gophers commit list, I get zero sense of who they like more than others, because they are all 3 stars. I can look at the positional ranking, but I don't know how many they ranked for that position and where the cutoffs are. Its just a lot of work for the customer to figure out something as simple as high/mid/low 3 star.

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Given the uncertainty and hit rate of three star players maybe Scout is doing it right. Ultimately I would look at the team rankings from each service independently and average that rather than using the fuzzy composite.