Early look at 2017-18 Big Ten Power Rankings: Minnesota at #2

GophersFan101

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2. Minnesota. Richard Pitino will have a loaded roster that looks to build on last year’s breakout season that saw Minnesota make the biggest improvement of any squad in the nation in going from 8-23 to 24-10 and ending a three-year NCAA drought.

Back are guards Nate Mason, Amir Coffey and Dupree McBrayer, forwards Eric Curry and Jordan Murphy and big man Reggie Lynch.

The only key loss is G Akeem Springs.

Bottom line: The Golden Gophers could win the league. Four-star G Isaiah Washington is set to arrive.


http://btn.com/2017/03/28/dienhart-early-early-look-at-2017-18-big-ten-power-rankings/
 

BIG looks really balanced again next year. I noticed that Dienhart has OSU 12th and Nebraska 13th. If that happens, Tim Miles might be in trouble. And what's going on with Thad Matta. If OSU misses the NCAA tourney 3 years in a row, I'm sure he'll take some heat.
 

Having high expectations scares me. Really hope we aren't that over hyped team that doesn't live up to expectations. This will be a key season for Pitino. Finishing top 3 will solidify the program in a big way.
 

BIG looks really balanced again next year. I noticed that Dienhart has OSU 12th and Nebraska 13th. If that happens, Tim Miles might be in trouble. And what's going on with Thad Matta. If OSU misses the NCAA tourney 3 years in a row, I'm sure he'll take some heat.

Matta has had a lot of health issues, starting to look like it's adversely affecting his job.
 

Having high expectations scares me. Really hope we aren't that over hyped team that doesn't live up to expectations. This will be a key season for Pitino. Finishing top 3 will solidify the program in a big way.

Agreed. Playing with expectations is a new ball game. They will sneak up on no one. We have not fared well with expectations in the recent past. I do think a big piece of success will be adding someone to the roster (beyond the two already in the fold) who can contribute meaningful minutes and a little offense.
 


Not too worried about expectations, I don't think these guys get too up or down, definitely more mentally tough than past gopher squads. If I had to rank it today I wouldn't change much, but I think I would flip Michican and Wisconsin, especially if Wilson and Wagner stay. I think Ohio State will be better next year, they bring most of their team back, should be better than a rebuilding Illini squad and I think better than IU as well. Although if everyone stays at IU and they can find even an average pure PG to play 15-20 minutes a game (cough McKinley Wright cough) they could add themselves to the discussion. Penn State should be better as well. I think Wisconsin wil finish anywhere between 6-10, if they are top four again than sign Gard to a lifetime deal. Sparty, Gophs and Maryland are the clear contenders, NW and Purdue are dark horses, Illini, Nebraska and Rutgers are the usual suspects for Wednesday action. The middle, a blood bath as usual. Gophs could be a top 15 team in the pre season
 

Another Early Read

My rankings assume Miles Bridges (MSU), Biggie Swanigan (Purdue), and Vincent Edwards (Purdue) do no return to school. Have a feeling Melo will come back for his senior year. 2 key returnees listed for each team.

Subject to change after we know who is/isn't coming back, as well as release of conference opponents & game locations.

1 Michigan State (Ward, Winston) -- Must find reliable wing play
2 Maryland (Melo, Huerter) -- Lots of young talent.
3 Minnesota (Coffey, Mason) -- Won't sneak up on anyone
4 Northwestern (McIntosh, Lindsey) -- Add key rotation piece (sharpshooter Aaron Falzon)
5 Michigan (Wagner, Wilson) -- I trust Beilein, no matter what players he has
6 Indiana (Bryant, Anunoby) -- Still some good pieces in place
7 Iowa (Bohannon, Cook) -- Talent says higher, but I think Fran's volatility wears on his players
8 Purdue (Haas, Mathias) -- Intrigued how they'll play post-Biggie.
9 Wisconsin (Happ, Iverson) -- Too many question marks, even for reliable Badgers.
10 Illinois (Black, Coleman-Lands) -- Underwood will toughen up this program.
11 Penn State (Carr, Watkins) -- Want to put higher, but can't trust Nitts.
12 Ohio State (Tate, Bates-Diop) -- Thad needs a bounce-back season.
13 Rutgers (Freeman, Sanders) -- Steady improvement will continue.
14 Nebraska (Watson Jr., Morrow) -- End of the Miles era?
 

I can't help but think Wisconsin finds a way to finish top 4 again. I know they don't look like it on paper, but I find it hard to believe they won't find some shooters and have a couple of players take a giant leap like they've experienced in the past. They already have Happ, arguably the best big man in the conference, just surround him with shooters and guys that will give 110% effort on defense. That recipe has worked for them for almost two decades now.
 

I can't help but think Wisconsin finds a way to finish top 4 again. I know they don't look like it on paper, but I find it hard to believe they won't find some shooters and have a couple of players take a giant leap like they've experienced in the past. They already have Happ, arguably the best big man in the conference, just surround him with shooters and guys that will give 110% effort on defense. That recipe has worked for them for almost two decades now.

Totally agree. Wisconsin will always find a way to win.
 



I can't help but think Wisconsin finds a way to finish top 4 again. I know they don't look like it on paper, but I find it hard to believe they won't find some shooters and have a couple of players take a giant leap like they've experienced in the past. They already have Happ, arguably the best big man in the conference, just surround him with shooters and guys that will give 110% effort on defense. That recipe has worked for them for almost two decades now.

I don't see it, they've had superior talent for 5 or 6 years now, they won't have that next year, with just Koenig out for a few weeks they tanked, they lose a lot more than that next year.
 

I don't expect the Badgers to disappear next season, not at all. They'll never be an easy out.

But if they keep the top-4 streak alive next season, we'll know for sure Gard is the right man for the job. Just can't see it next season, though I'm really high on Davison.
 

Revised picks with Melo hiring an agent

Revised predictions now assume Melo (Maryland), Miles Bridges (MSU), Biggie Swanigan (Purdue), and Vincent Edwards (Purdue) do no return to school. 2 key returnees listed for each team.

Subject to change after we know who is/isn't coming back, as well as release of conference opponents & game locations.

1 Michigan State (Ward, Winston) -- Must find reliable wing play
2 Minnesota (Coffey, Mason) -- Won't sneak up on anyone
3 Northwestern (McIntosh, Lindsey) -- Add key rotation piece (sharpshooter Aaron Falzon)
4 Maryland (Cowan, Huerter) -- Lots of young talent.
5 Michigan (Wagner, Wilson) -- I trust Beilein, no matter what players he has
6 Indiana (Bryant, Anunoby) -- Still some good pieces in place
7 Iowa (Bohannon, Cook) -- Talent says higher, but I think Fran's volatility wears on his players
8 Purdue (Haas, Mathias) -- Intrigued how they'll play post-Biggie.
9 Wisconsin (Happ, Iverson) -- Too many question marks, even for reliable Badgers.
10 Illinois (Black, Coleman-Lands) -- Underwood will toughen up this program.
11 Penn State (Carr, Watkins) -- Want to put higher, but can't trust Nitts.
12 Ohio State (Tate, Bates-Diop) -- Thad needs a bounce-back season.
13 Rutgers (Freeman, Sanders) -- Steady improvement will continue.
14 Nebraska (Watson Jr., Morrow) -- End of the Miles era?
 

I think Anunoby makes the jump. I see him in the mid-1st round a lot of places.
 



I think Anunoby makes the jump. I see him in the mid-1st round a lot of places.

Hoosiers the most volatile with regards to NBA early entry. If they all come back, Hoosiers will be a sleeper. If they lose any of 'em, OG, Bryant, and/or Blackmon, will drop significantly in my projections.
 

Revised predictions now assume Melo (Maryland), Miles Bridges (MSU), Biggie Swanigan (Purdue), and Vincent Edwards (Purdue) do no return to school. 2 key returnees listed for each team.

Subject to change after we know who is/isn't coming back, as well as release of conference opponents & game locations.

1 Michigan State (Ward, Winston) -- Must find reliable wing play
2 Minnesota (Coffey, Mason) -- Won't sneak up on anyone
3 Northwestern (McIntosh, Lindsey) -- Add key rotation piece (sharpshooter Aaron Falzon)
4 Maryland (Cowan, Huerter) -- Lots of young talent.
5 Michigan (Wagner, Wilson) -- I trust Beilein, no matter what players he has
6 Indiana (Bryant, Anunoby) -- Still some good pieces in place
7 Iowa (Bohannon, Cook) -- Talent says higher, but I think Fran's volatility wears on his players
8 Purdue (Haas, Mathias) -- Intrigued how they'll play post-Biggie.
9 Wisconsin (Happ, Iverson) -- Too many question marks, even for reliable Badgers.
10 Illinois (Black, Coleman-Lands) -- Underwood will toughen up this program.
11 Penn State (Carr, Watkins) -- Want to put higher, but can't trust Nitts.
12 Ohio State (Tate, Bates-Diop) -- Thad needs a bounce-back season.
13 Rutgers (Freeman, Sanders) -- Steady improvement will continue.
14 Nebraska (Watson Jr., Morrow) -- End of the Miles era?

Why?
 

Hoosiers the most volatile with regards to NBA early entry. If they all come back, Hoosiers will be a sleeper. If they lose any of 'em, OG, Bryant, and/or Blackmon, will drop significantly in my projections.

I'm not sure what OG's injury was and whether he will need to "prove" himself before the draft. Big task. Wasn't he pretty much an automatic in the draft before injury? Will be very interesting to see if Miller convinces these guys to come back or whether he wants them. Crean called out the team's attitude this season, and Archie might just want to burn the files and start over. This isn't the typical dumpster fire restart that a lot of new coaches have to deal with in terms of talent, but there are other issues besides talent.

The situation looks like a great one for Wright to get into. From Dayton to IU is really landing on your feet if it comes to be.
 

Revised predictions now assume Melo (Maryland), Miles Bridges (MSU), Biggie Swanigan (Purdue), and Vincent Edwards (Purdue) do no return to school. 2 key returnees listed for each team.

Subject to change after we know who is/isn't coming back, as well as release of conference opponents & game locations.

1 Michigan State (Ward, Winston) -- Must find reliable wing play
2 Minnesota (Coffey, Mason) -- Won't sneak up on anyone
3 Northwestern (McIntosh, Lindsey) -- Add key rotation piece (sharpshooter Aaron Falzon)
4 Maryland (Cowan, Huerter) -- Lots of young talent.
5 Michigan (Wagner, Wilson) -- I trust Beilein, no matter what players he has
6 Indiana (Bryant, Anunoby) -- Still some good pieces in place
7 Iowa (Bohannon, Cook) -- Talent says higher, but I think Fran's volatility wears on his players
8 Purdue (Haas, Mathias) -- Intrigued how they'll play post-Biggie.
9 Wisconsin (Happ, Iverson) -- Too many question marks, even for reliable Badgers.
10 Illinois (Black, Coleman-Lands) -- Underwood will toughen up this program.
11 Penn State (Carr, Watkins) -- Want to put higher, but can't trust Nitts.
12 Ohio State (Tate, Bates-Diop) -- Thad needs a bounce-back season.
13 Rutgers (Freeman, Sanders) -- Steady improvement will continue.
14 Nebraska (Watson Jr., Morrow) -- End of the Miles era?
Great stuff, as always, SS. Any chance you could post your prediction from last year? I would be interested for sure. And not to call you out. I don't think anyone would have predicted a 4th place finish this year. Curious though.
 

Thanks Jake.

I don't recall specifically if I projected the B1G standings last year at this time (pre-NBA player declare), but I do know prior to the season I projected the Gophers to finish in 10th place with a 17-14 overall record and a 7-11 mark in the B1G. Had Purdue winning it, so at least I got that right.
 

I can't help but think Wisconsin finds a way to finish top 4 again. I know they don't look like it on paper, but I find it hard to believe they won't find some shooters and have a couple of players take a giant leap like they've experienced in the past. They already have Happ, arguably the best big man in the conference, just surround him with shooters and guys that will give 110% effort on defense. That recipe has worked for them for almost two decades now.
agreed. Like Wisconsin or not, but every year Wisconsin develops players and shows off unexpected surprises.
 

agreed. Like Wisconsin or not, but every year Wisconsin develops players and shows off unexpected surprises.

I can only go on what I've seen of current Badgers and future Badgers, but I do not like (I mean, I do like) what I've seen. Trice does not look like the guy, I would just pressure the ball like crazy, and see how he responds (hopefully like he did vs. Nova & FLA). Iverson has proven little, and if Happ is in foul trouble they're up a creek. This whole "always" find a way theme is lazy to me. They aren't going to have the following pieces next year:

- Bo Ryan (Gard is not his equal)
- Bronson Koenig (He was basically their savior in every memorable game)
- Nigel Hayes (mr. consistency)
- Vitto Brown (reliable)
- Showalter (that scrappy little WI player)

Instead of just forecasting another good season, how about some actual names that will vault them over the following teams:

Purdue
Minn
MSU
MI
Mary
NW
IU

Honestly, I have a VERY hard time seeing them finishing ahead of those teams.

Obviously, the bulk of the load will fall on the shoulders of the following players:

- Happ: Clearly the lynchpin. Great player if he's on his game, but prone to foul trouble... and he'll be the frontcourt onus
- Iverson: 15 mpg. Has shown flashes
- Trice: 18 mpg. Serviceable backup to Koenig, but hasn't shown ability to take over
- Hill: 10 mpg. 1.5 pts/gm. Disappeared on the court mostly.
- Pritzl: 8 mpg. Good hustle guy?
- Illikainen: 8 mpg. meh.

With the following freshmen to help:

- Davison: Obviously a good HS player. Seems to be a heady PG. Maybe he's a starter? No way he matches up with B1G best though as a freshman.
- Reuvers: Same as above, word for word (minus the PG).
- King: I know absolutely nothing about this 3-star SG

I do believe that the Wisconsin scheme will prove effective, and permit them to hover slightly below .500 (which was good for 9th this year).

From my perspective, if they can't feed the ball down to Happ all game long this team is going to have a very hard time winning games in the B1G.
 

MSU's rotation will look something like the following

PG: Winston, Nairn
SG: McQuaid
SF: Langford
PF: Ward, Xavier Tillman/Goins
C: Jarren Jackson, Gavin Schilling

Ward is really the only proven commodity of that rotation. Jackson, their freshman will also probably be pretty good but guys like Langford, McQuaid, Winston and Nairn haven't shown a ton yet. They were all highly rated in HS but thats not enough for me to put them atop the Big Ten.

Contrast that with the gophers and all 5 guys are proven commodities I would say. 4 of them averaged double figures with the other being the Big Ten DPOY. I don't think you can put MSU ahead of us.

I'd put Purdue ahead of MSU as well assuming everybody except for Swanigan returns. They can just insert Haas into the starting lineup to replace him. Their lineup will look something like the following:

PG: Edwards, Thompson
SG: Mathias
SF: Nojel Eastern (4 star frosh), Cline
PF: Edwards
C: Haas
 


Ward is really the only proven commodity of that rotation.

Contrast that with the gophers and all 5 guys are proven commodities I would say. 4 of them averaged double figures with the other being the Big Ten DPOY. I don't think you can put MSU ahead of us.

I'd put Purdue ahead of MSU as well assuming everybody except for Swanigan returns. They can just insert Haas into the starting lineup to replace him. Their lineup will look something like the following:

Wow
 


Whats so "wow" about that statement? All 5 of Coffey, Mason, McBrayer, Lynch and Murphy are much more proven and were more productive than McQuaid, Langford, Winston, Narin, Schilling etc. Same with Purdue's top 4 guys of Haas, both Edwards and Mathias.
 

Underestimate Wisconsin at own risk
 

I can only go on what I've seen of current Badgers and future Badgers, but I do not like (I mean, I do like) what I've seen. Trice does not look like the guy, I would just pressure the ball like crazy, and see how he responds (hopefully like he did vs. Nova & FLA). Iverson has proven little, and if Happ is in foul trouble they're up a creek. This whole "always" find a way theme is lazy to me. They aren't going to have the following pieces next year:

- Bo Ryan (Gard is not his equal)
- Bronson Koenig (He was basically their savior in every memorable game)
- Nigel Hayes (mr. consistency)
- Vitto Brown (reliable)
- Showalter (that scrappy little WI player)

Instead of just forecasting another good season, how about some actual names that will vault them over the following teams:

Purdue
Minn
MSU
MI
Mary
NW
IU

Honestly, I have a VERY hard time seeing them finishing ahead of those teams.

Obviously, the bulk of the load will fall on the shoulders of the following players:

- Happ: Clearly the lynchpin. Great player if he's on his game, but prone to foul trouble... and he'll be the frontcourt onus
- Iverson: 15 mpg. Has shown flashes
- Trice: 18 mpg. Serviceable backup to Koenig, but hasn't shown ability to take over
- Hill: 10 mpg. 1.5 pts/gm. Disappeared on the court mostly.
- Pritzl: 8 mpg. Good hustle guy?
- Illikainen: 8 mpg. meh.

With the following freshmen to help:

- Davison: Obviously a good HS player. Seems to be a heady PG. Maybe he's a starter? No way he matches up with B1G best though as a freshman.
- Reuvers: Same as above, word for word (minus the PG).
- King: I know absolutely nothing about this 3-star SG

I do believe that the Wisconsin scheme will prove effective, and permit them to hover slightly below .500 (which was good for 9th this year).

From my perspective, if they can't feed the ball down to Happ all game long this team is going to have a very hard time winning games in the B1G.

I don't disagree with a single thing you said. It was a great summary and exactly what I meant when I said "they don't look like it on paper." Crazy things happen though. Who would have thought the Gophers would finish top 4 and Indiana would miss the tournament? Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if everything goes their way and they sneak into the top 4 yet again. Obviously I would not be surprised if they finished in the bottom half as well. Lots of unknowns on that team, probably more than any other team in the conference, other than maybe Indiana.
 

MSU's rotation will look something like the following

PG: Winston, Nairn
SG: McQuaid
SF: Langford
PF: Ward, Xavier Tillman/Goins
C: Jarren Jackson, Gavin Schilling

Its too early to tell in my mind. Wait 2ish weeks and then we'll know about MSU. Bridges and Bowen(50:50 Arizona MSU on 247 crystal ball) need to make their choices for us to know If MSU will be the preseason favorite or just in the top tier. I don't think there is 1 favorite next year but really a group of 3 teams(now after Melo sign an agent) of Purdue, MN and MSU.
 

I can only go on what I've seen of current Badgers and future Badgers, but I do not like (I mean, I do like) what I've seen. Trice does not look like the guy, I would just pressure the ball like crazy, and see how he responds (hopefully like he did vs. Nova & FLA). Iverson has proven little, and if Happ is in foul trouble they're up a creek. This whole "always" find a way theme is lazy to me. They aren't going to have the following pieces next year:

- Bo Ryan (Gard is not his equal)
- Bronson Koenig (He was basically their savior in every memorable game)
- Nigel Hayes (mr. consistency)
- Vitto Brown (reliable)
- Showalter (that scrappy little WI player)

Instead of just forecasting another good season, how about some actual names that will vault them over the following teams:

Purdue
Minn
MSU
MI
Mary
NW
IU

Honestly, I have a VERY hard time seeing them finishing ahead of those teams.

Obviously, the bulk of the load will fall on the shoulders of the following players:

- Happ: Clearly the lynchpin. Great player if he's on his game, but prone to foul trouble... and he'll be the frontcourt onus
- Iverson: 15 mpg. Has shown flashes
- Trice: 18 mpg. Serviceable backup to Koenig, but hasn't shown ability to take over
- Hill: 10 mpg. 1.5 pts/gm. Disappeared on the court mostly.
- Pritzl: 8 mpg. Good hustle guy?
- Illikainen: 8 mpg. meh.

With the following freshmen to help:

- Davison: Obviously a good HS player. Seems to be a heady PG. Maybe he's a starter? No way he matches up with B1G best though as a freshman.
- Reuvers: Same as above, word for word (minus the PG).
- King: I know absolutely nothing about this 3-star SG

I do believe that the Wisconsin scheme will prove effective, and permit them to hover slightly below .500 (which was good for 9th this year).

From my perspective, if they can't feed the ball down to Happ all game long this team is going to have a very hard time winning games in the B1G.

You forgot to mention Happ can't shoot free throws.
 

Blackmon Jr making the jump from Indiana to the pros, did not hire an agent though.
 

Under performing Ohio ST.

Some recruiting tidbits from 247 sports:

2013. #36 in nation, #5 in big Ten. Loving and G k. Williams.
2014. #6 recruiting class in the nation. #1 in big ten. Sg Russell, SF Bates-diop, SG Tate.
2015 #5 in nation, #1 in Big Ten. SG lyle, C giddens. Other 3 haven't panned out.

2016 #41 in nation, #8 in big Ten. PF Funderburk, C Potter.
2017 #68 in nation, #10 in big Ten. C Wesson #6 center.

Ohio St. normally is recruiting McDonald all americans at least every other year. They were once regularly the big ten's best recruiting teams. 2014 hurt with Russell leaving early. But as you can see 2016 and 2017 were very low rated. 2018 they have 3 recruits, none rated that high either.

Ohio St. is one of the most athletic teams in the big ten, should average much more than 5 steals and 4 blocks per game. Lose their best shooter in Loving. Next year Tate, Thompson, Diop, and Williams are all Sr's and Lyle will be a JR. Matta is on the hot seat if they don't have a good season.

And what's going on with Thad Matta. If OSU misses the NCAA tourney 3 years in a row, I'm sure he'll take some heat.
 




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