CBS: Ranking which 12-5 upsets are most likely to happen (#1. Mdl TN St over Minn)

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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per CBS:

All but four years since 1985 we’ve had at least one 12 beat a 5. And in the past five years, 12 seeds have won just as many times as 5 seeds. That is just wild.

Our SportsLine data experts are crunching all the numbers, and they say the 12 seeds are ripe for money making these year.

Let’s rank these out in terms of most to least likely to happen.

1. No. 12 Middle Tennessee over No. 5 Minnesota
The 30-4 Blue Raiders are no strangers to upsets, having pulled off the most stunning victory in first-round history last year when they beat No. 2 Michigan State. This year’s team is even better, yet under-seeded. The Blue Raiders are closer to a 9 or a 10 than a 12, and Minnesota’s closer to a 7 than a 5. So this one seems particularly ripe for a picking.
Kermit Davis’ team doesn’t turn the ball over much, beats you on the defensive glass and has size inside. Minnesota’s offense might not be able to get going here. And when a game is going to float around that 65-point range, it helps the lower-seeded team. Middle is legit. It has its sights set on getting to the Sweet 16, not just beating Minnesota.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...-which-12-5-upsets-are-most-likely-to-happen/

Go Gophers!!
 

I think the Gophers 12-5 match up is the least likely upset of the 12-5's
 

It's amazing that in these bandwagon upset picks they only sing the praises of the team they want to see win, but say very little about the other team. Most of the "analysis" has been about MTSU and would have been the same no matter who they played. The Gophers strong inside game is something these folks should not ignore. One wonders whether they are actually analyzing the match-up or following the herd. If they said something like, "Minnesota enters the tournament without a key three point shooter and defender Akeem Springs and will need to adjust, making them a potential upset victim" I can accept that. There's a reason. So far the drivel has only been "MTSU is better than you think and won last year, so it is automatic." Pretty good locker room material for the Gophers.
 

Pitino has coached not getting to high or to low for a game to his team. He has quite a job cut out for him with his players likely seeing all of this MTS hullabaloo.
 

Let's see here - Minnesota has the big ten coach of the year, the defensive player of the year, all big ten 1st team guard, all big ten forward and an all freshman team guard/forward and we are getting picked to be upset...what? I do think everyone picking MTS will get the teams attention - I hope they play with a little anger over that. ( and takes some pressure off) the one thing I hope Pitino does is plays a deeper bench - this year is already exceeded expectations - I hope he gets those guys on the bench some tourney experience for next year.
 


Case in point to why this doesn't matter: On ESPN's courtside podcast, Katz said he liked MTSU because they won last year. Didn't give any reasoning at all. Then Greenberg said he has MTSU because THEY PLAY A 2-3 ZONE. You know, the same defense MN has carved up all year whenever they've faced it. He then said 'MTSU is a good defensive rebounding team' then 15 seconds later said 'MN is a good offensive rebounding team'. Neither was able to offer any legit reason why MTSU would win or why they matched up well against us. Thing is this is ALWAYS the case until you get into the later rounds and teams that these analysts have actually paid attention to all year match up. Very few of them paid any attention to MTSU all year which is evident because despite their gaudy record the media that now is drooling over them didn't put them in their top 25, and not many paid attention to us, evident in the fact that despite the committee naming us the 18th best team in the country we spent all of 1 week in the top 25 (not that I'm upset about it). These guys are going off of the 1-2 games they've seen and vague 'analysis' based on box scores and espn.com rosters
 

Watched another pundit talk about how Jacorey Williams will carry MTSU on his back in the upset over MN. Jacorey is their best player averaging 17 pts 7 rebounds per game. During his three years with the Razorbacks he averaged 4 pts, 2 rebounds. Not saying he hasn't improved, but the move to conference USA couldn't have hurt the stat line..

It amazes me I have not seen one "expert" even flirt with the idea MN has a chance. Can't wait till 1 pm Thursday (Las Vegas time zone)
 

Thymanst said:
. ... the one thing I hope Patino does is plays a deeper bench - this year is already exceeded expectations - I hope he gets those guys on the bench some tourney experience for next year.
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Play to win this game.

Can't worry about hurt feelings or next year when you get to this point. If Pitino thinks keeping the rotation tight (Curry + a dash of Bakary) gives the Gophers their best chance to win, that's what he should do. If he thinks playing Hurt, Gilbert, and/or Sharp (Sharp my preference) for a few minutes gives them a better chance, he should do that.

The future looks bright for the Gophers, but next year (season) is never promised.
 





topos said:
It amazes me I have not seen one "expert" even flirt with the idea MN has a chance. Can't wait till 1 pm Thursday (Las Vegas time zone)
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I posted this in another thread, but I heard Dan Dakich on ESPN Chicago yesterday say this (around 2:32:00): "Don't buy Middle Tennessee State. Don't buy them. Minnesota's going to beat Middle Tennessee by double digits." Dakich is a Big Ten guy who's seen the Gophers play multiple times this year so he knows what kind of team we have.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/chicago/play?id=18901572
 

WindyCityGopher said:
I posted this in another thread, but I heard Dan Dakich on ESPN Chicago yesterday say this (around 2:32:00): "Don't buy Middle Tennessee State. Don't buy them. Minnesota's going to beat Middle Tennessee by double digits." Dakich is a Big Ten guy who's seen the Gophers play multiple times this year so he knows what kind of team we have.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/chicago/play?id=18901572
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While I'd love to jump on that bandwagon I also question how much Dakich has seen of MTSU. Because that isn't really any actual analysis either as to 'why'.
 

oleboy41 said:
While I'd love to jump on that bandwagon I also question how much Dakich has seen of MTSU. Because that isn't really any actual analysis either as to 'why'.
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He's likely seen as much MTSU as every other pundit: that is, they saw last year's Michigan State game and are projecting. Difference is, he's saying he saw that game (and the subsequent ass kicking by Syracuse) and doesn't care because he's seen Minnesota play this year and likes what he sees.
 



topos said:
Watched another pundit talk about how Jacorey Williams will carry MTSU on his back in the upset over MN. Jacorey is their best player averaging 17 pts 7 rebounds per game. During his three years with the Razorbacks he averaged 4 pts, 2 rebounds. Not saying he hasn't improved, but the move to conference USA couldn't have hurt the stat line..

It amazes me I have not seen one "expert" even flirt with the idea MN has a chance. Can't wait till 1 pm Thursday (Las Vegas time zone)
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Wow - nice info, adds some needed perspective given how little there has been. Was he a grad transfer?
 

I saw somewhere (SI?) that MN doesn't match up well with MTSU's bigs! This guy must have never heard of Lynch/Murphy or Curry. A couple of 6'8" 230 guys are not going to intimidate a B1G team, certainly not the Gophers!

If second half Murph shows up, we will win by 20.
 


A big part of the reasoning for this is what MTSU did last year. But I think the "experts" also look at all the 5 seeds and see 3 teams that have been in the Big Dance numerous times in recent years, and they see the Gophers who have zero minutes of tournament experience combined on the entire roster (Reggie Lynch did play in the NIT and CBI at Illinois State.) Combine that with losing our senior leader, and I can understand where they are coming from. I do believe the Gophers win because of their inside game, but I don't think it will be easy.
 

Otis said:
I saw somewhere (SI?) that MN doesn't match up well with MTSU's bigs! This guy must have never heard of Lynch/Murphy or Curry. A couple of 6'8" 230 guys are not going to intimidate a B1G team, certainly not the Gophers!

If second half Murph shows up, we will win by 20.
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There may be truth to that as apparently neither forward is a huge back to the basket type and they're more face up jump shooters and or slashers. Sounds a bit like the Michigan bigs. In that case Lynch is a bit uncomfortable outside the lane and his shot blocking may be neutralized. Curry is the only big really comfortable defending out there
 

For what it's worth, I think people would still be on MTSU if this was a 6/11 or 7/10 matchup.
With that said, this game is starting to remind me of the Holiday Bowl. Terrible matchup for the Gophers, undermanned and scrambling to adjust. Hope this game turns out the same way.
 

Thymanst said:
I hope Patino does is plays a deeper bench - this year is already exceeded expectations - I hope he gets those guys on the bench some tourney experience for next year.
Click to expand...

No idea who Patino is, but no way in heck should Pitino worry about anything other than winning Thursday. That's it. Who cares about next year this week. We'll worry about next year when this season is over. The NCAA Tournament is NOT the time to get the "bench some tourney experience."

Play to win Thursday - that's it.

Go Gophers!!
 

bigticket1 said:
A big part of the reasoning for this is what MTSU did last year. But I think the "experts" also look at all the 5 seeds and see 3 teams that have been in the Big Dance numerous times in recent years, and they see the Gophers who have zero minutes of tournament experience combined on the entire roster (Reggie Lynch did play in the NIT and CBI at Illinois State.) Combine that with losing our senior leader, and I can understand where they are coming from. I do believe the Gophers win because of their inside game, but I don't think it will be easy.
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Specifically, I think that their win over Michigan State has the hype machine churning faster than ever. The way that I look at it, their win over State essentially plays as a highlight video. It's highly unlikely that they will shoot 56% from three, and it's highly unlikely that their bigs will post season averages against a front court defense that's better than any they've played. I love this matchup for the Gophers, I just don't love our depth issues.
 

Latest AP rankings have MTS - 26th and the Gophers 27th. Guess we are the underdog!
 

oleboy41 said:
While I'd love to jump on that bandwagon I also question how much Dakich has seen of MTSU. Because that isn't really any actual analysis either as to 'why'.
Click to expand...

Also saw he picked Michigan to go all the way....that's some serious big ten homerism. May not be the best endorsement.
 


peachpages said:
Latest AP rankings have MTS - 26th and the Gophers 27th. Guess we are the underdog!
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Then why the heck are they a 12 seed, and we a 5? That makes no sense whatsoever.

If they're this supposed juggernaut team as many of the analysts are intimating, then didn't we get boned so far as match-ups go?
 

It's weird, because on one hand I think the Committee set this game up in hopes of a 12/5 upset to further their lucrative narrative of "March Madness" but on the other hand the national media has kind of screwed that up by almost unanimously guaranteeing a MTSU victory. In reality, this is probably a 7/10 match-up and the Committee was painted into a corner and just had to roll with 12/5.

At this point, the Gophers in the Sweet 16 probably makes a better "One Shining Moment" montage than MTSU. Let's all hope for the epic upset of the mighty MTSU Fighting Directionals!
 

Seany said:
Then why the heck are they a 12 seed, and we a 5? That makes no sense whatsoever.

If they're this supposed juggernaut team as many of the analysts are intimating, then didn't we get boned so far as match-ups go?
Click to expand...

This. A mistake was made. If I am feeling conspiratorial, I would say that the Powers That Be wanted everyone to be unimpressed with Minnesota's year and figure that we were just 'overrated.' I hope we shock the world against the Golden State Warriors of the NCAA!
 

We opened as favorites in Vegas. They are way more accurate than the talking heads.
 

topos said:
Also saw he picked Michigan to go all the way....that's some serious big ten homerism. May not be the best endorsement.
Click to expand...

He literally said he's not going to pick against his son.
 

stocker08 said:
We opened as favorites in Vegas. They are way more accurate than the talking heads.
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Vegas knows there are tons of bets placed by joe schmoes that don't know anything. Most of those folks will be more likely to place money on MN seeing how people have at least heard of us and many won't know a thing about MTSU. Vegas just wants even betting on both sides and that's influenced by who those in the know go with
 

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