Looking at Middle Tennessee State

"Tempo will also be a factor in this one with MTSU preferring the slow-down and the Gophers looking to push the pace."

will we play up tempo and press with a short bench?
 

The 1-3-1 that Iowa put on us was greatly aided by the fact that the refs allowed them to grab and bump up and down the floor while they were playing it. Once the Gophers broke it once, though, they never went back to it.
 

Great analysis I found from a college basketball site. http://three-man-weave.com/3mw/2017/3/15/2016-17-ncaa-tournament-preview-south-region

"Initial Thoughts:
This is going to be the sexiest upset pick of the entire first round. After last year’s spectacular Michigan State upset, Middle Tennessee is now a well-known, public entity and many, including me, thought they deserved to be seeded higher than a 12 (aside: I called MTSU the best 15-seed of all-time last year before the tournament – please allow me to shamelessly toot my own horn). On the other hand, despite all their success this season, I’d wager a hefty amount that most average basketball fans don’t 1) know anything about Minnesota and 2) think they are over-seeded on the 5-line. That last part may be true (I had them at a 6), but rest assured the Gophers are not a team to take lightly.

Minnesota on Offense:
The Gophers are a very talented young team, but offense isn’t really their strong suit. Minnesota mostly runs a dribble hand-off offense at the top of the key that usually results in one of the guards (Nate Mason, Dupree McBrayer, or Amir Coffey) attacking the basket from the wings. When this motion is working, it can be beautiful to watch, with wing slashers able to take the ball to the rack or dump to a post-man when his man steps up to help. However, this offense can also lead to inefficiencies. Michigan was able to shut down the Gopher weave attack, forcing the Minny guards to drive east and west rather than the preferred north and south. This lateral-to-the-bucket movement can lead to turnovers and poor shot selection. Minnesota ranks 23rd in the country in two-point jumper attempts, and while most of these jumpers are within 15 feet, it’s not the most ideal form of offense. The Gophers are a below-average shooting team from both inside and behind the arc. The frontcourt tandem of Jordan Murphy, Eric Curry, and Reggie Lynch helps make up for this futility with offensive boards, but strong rebounding squads can thwart this second-chance reliance. There are positives to the Gopher attack, however – Nate Mason is one of the best point guards in the country and possesses one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the nation (5.0apg; 1.8tpg). His vision sets up easy flushes and open looks that are all too valuable for this team. Coffey, a fantastic freshman, Murphy, a rising Big Ten star, and McBrayer, a much-improved sophomore, all get to the line at a high rate, which often bails out the mediocre jump-shooting approach.

Middle Tennessee is going to be able to compete with the Gophers on their defensive end. The Blue Raiders are the 12th best defensive rebounding team in the country behind Arkansas transfer Jacorey Williams and 2016 Tournament hero Reggie Upshaw. The pair combined to average over 14 boards per contest this season, and should be able to fend off the bigger Lynch / Murphy / Curry combo. This first point should be troubling to Gopher fans – the next two should be uplifting. MTSU can be scored on via the Gophers’ preferred method. MTSU is vulnerable in and around the paint area, allowing a high percentage of 10-15 foot shot attempts and they are a bottom-60 squad when it comes to not sending opponents to the free throw line. With a thin frontcourt, foul trouble to Williams or Upshaw could spell trouble for MTSU.

Middle Tennessee on Offense:
The Blue Raider offense is a three-pronged attack led by Williams, Upshaw, and the superlative Giddy Potts. Williams and Upshaw are both versatile forwards able to post up their defenders or take them off the dribble. This last bit works especially well against slower bigs that don’t like to get out and defend on the perimeter. A guy like Reggie Lynch could be exploited here – Jordan Murphy can probably hold his own. Potts is within his shooting range as soon as he steps into the gym. The junior guard shot a stupid 50% from three last season, but “only” 39% this year. He is MTSU’s only consistent three-point threat. Like the Gophers, the Raiders have a tendency to settle for “inefficient” jumpers, particularly Williams who often likes to pull up from about 18 feet instead of taking his man to the rack. Despite sometimes making “inefficient” shot choices, Williams shot an impressive 55.2% from the field this season, and the Raiders as a team ranked 28th in 2PFG% and 82nd in 3PFG%. Coach Kermit Davis, a trendy pick for a major coaching hire next season, prefers to play at a slowed-down tempo – MTSU will milk the shot clock down until about 10 seconds before settling for a shot. This style favors a mid-major upset bid as it limits possessions and, therefore, opponent scoring.

As implied in the section above, the Gophers didn’t earn a 5-seed because of their offense – they earned one because of their defense, which ranked 18th in the country per KenPom.com. Minnesota doesn’t pressure and force turnovers, nor do they necessarily dominate the defensive glass; they just make it very, very difficult to get off a clean shot. The Gophers’ defense ranked 11th in 3PFG%, 23rd in 2PFG%, 3rd in BLK%, and 38th in foul rate. These metrics indicate the Gophers are experts at defending without fouling and contesting jump shooters. As a team, Minnesota ranks 6th in the country in post-up points per possession allowed and 33rd in spot-up points per possession allowed – worrisome for a MTSU squad that likes to work through the post and shoot mid-range jumpers.

Key Factor(s):
Which offense will be able to crack the other’s defense? This matchup features two squads that can defend the other, particularly the Gophers when they guard the Raiders. MTSU will need to defend without fouling in order to limit easy free-throw points and keep their most valuable players on the floor. On the other side, Minnesota will need another shooter to step up. With Akeem Springs lost for the rest of the season, Mason becomes the only volume three-point shooter on the floor. McBrayer has the potential to be this guy, as he converted a team-high 41.7% of his attempts this year. Pitino’s crew should also look to work the drives and Lynch post-ups in hopes of taking Williams out of the game early. Tempo will also be a factor in this one with MTSU preferring the slow-down and the Gophers looking to push the pace.

Final Predictions:
I feel like taking Minnesota is actually taking the “underdog” in this one – and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. When 75% of people in your bracket pool miss this game because of the perceived awesomeness of MTSU (I actually do really like this team) and the “12 vs. 5” matchup lore, you’ll be sitting pretty with Minnesota in your second round."

Thanks for posting this. It's just about the only analysis that I've seen so far that actually discusses both teams on both ends of the court.
 

Solid analysis, but he doesn't talk about their switching zone defense. How good is it? At this point, don't know. Let's just throw the ball up and find out I guess. Still see the Gophers winning by 7.
 




The Gophers should and will be fine if they stay out of foul trouble and keep the ball moving regardless of what zone MTSU is in. I don't see more than Curry and Konate coming off the bench, maybe Hurt and/or Gilbert as well but only if the guards get in foul trouble. The top 6 are used to playing big minutes and the longer TV timeouts should help. If you need to take Mason out, do it before the under 12 timeout in the first half to give him a little extra breather. He said today he's prepared to play 40 minutes, so we'll see.

Put Coffey at the FT line in the zone D and he either gets a mid-range jumper or can pass it off for a lay-up/dunk. As long as they move the ball, they should carve up the zone. They also shouldn't be afraid to run whenever the opportunity allows, don't let the zone set up.

More than anything, embrace the opportunity and have fun. You've earned the right to be here, don't let the stage and nerves become a factor. I think we'll have a good idea how this one will go by the time the second media timeout comes. The players have said it's a business trip and the Sweet 16 is the goal. Let's hope the effort lives up to it tomorrow. I also like that the MTSU bigs said they're not afraid of Lynch, I hope he blocks a shot early and makes his presence known. Let your play do the talking.
 

The Gophers should and will be fine if they stay out of foul trouble and keep the ball moving regardless of what zone MTSU is in. I don't see more than Curry and Konate coming off the bench, maybe Hurt and/or Gilbert as well but only if the guards get in foul trouble. The top 6 are used to playing big minutes and the longer TV timeouts should help. If you need to take Mason out, do it before the under 12 timeout in the first half to give him a little extra breather. He said today he's prepared to play 40 minutes, so we'll see.

Put Coffey at the FT line in the zone D and he either gets a mid-range jumper or can pass it off for a lay-up/dunk. As long as they move the ball, they should carve up the zone. They also shouldn't be afraid to run whenever the opportunity allows, don't let the zone set up.

More than anything, embrace the opportunity and have fun. You've earned the right to be here, don't let the stage and nerves become a factor. I think we'll have a good idea how this one will go by the time the second media timeout comes. The players have said it's a business trip and the Sweet 16 is the goal. Let's hope the effort lives up to it tomorrow. I also like that the MTSU bigs said they're not afraid of Lynch, I hope he blocks a shot early and makes his presence known. Let your play do the talking.

I think they need to work Gilbert and/or Sharpe into the rotation, even if for 4-8 minutes
 

So all this focus in the media on MTSU as the 15 seed upsetting the 2 seeded MSU last year.

But no mention of them losing by 25 in the 2nd round to the 10 seed.
 



So all this focus in the media on MTSU as the 15 seed upsetting the 2 seeded MSU last year.

But no mention of them losing by 25 in the 2nd round to the 10 seed.

Everyone mentions it. You neglected to mention that that 10 seed went to the Final 4. So your point is invalid
 

I think they need to work Gilbert and/or Sharpe into the rotation, even if for 4-8 minutes

It's going to be Hurt not Gilbert or Sharpe. I saw a quote from Hurt saying he knows he'll likely have to play a little more, also in one of the highlight videos they put out, Hurt had the maroon jersey on working with Lynch, Murphy, etc
 

Hopefully McBrayer, Mason, and Coffey can hit some three's!

The key will be frontcourt people making good decisions at the high post.
 




Lynch is going to be the key for offense. When MTSU beat MSU, there was one thing that worked for MSU and that was Costello. Costello averaged 10 ppg, but against MTSU went for 22, shooting 9/10, almost all of it coming in the paint. I watched the game again and MTSU was absolutely helpless against him. If Lynch can provide consistent points it will create doubles and Lynch will be able to pass over the doubles.
 

If any of you had to compare MTSU to a Big Ten team, who do some of you think they resemble the most? 30-4 is great however you slice it, but how would MTSU have done against the grind of a high major schedule
 

Don't see how that makes it invalid

Because the point of the statement is that they lost to a supposedly mediocre team since they're only a 10 seed. When that team outplays its seed and goes to the Final 4 it's clear that Cuse was actually either a very good team or a team just playing very good basketball meaning its no knock to a team losing to them
 

Because the point of the statement is that they lost to a supposedly mediocre team since they're only a 10 seed. When that team outplays its seed and goes to the Final 4 it's clear that Cuse was actually either a very good team or a team just playing very good basketball meaning its no knock to a team losing to them

Either way 25 points is 25 points that is an ass whoopin, but you're right The Cuse got hot at the right time.
 

Middle also led in that Syracuse game in the second half, and then they went on a 21-2 run when we got into foul trouble and couldn't buy a basket. Not that 'Cuse didn't end up beating MT handily, but I feel like context is important when folks bring that game up.

Good luck today, Gophers! I wish we weren't getting so much hype. I'll be curious to see how Middle plays under these circumstances. I expect a close game.
 

Either way 25 points is 25 points that is an ass whoopin, but you're right The Cuse got hot at the right time.

25 is a lot but I can't knock it. I don't remember the game but I do know final point totals don't mean much but if you lose by that much it was probably out of reach for a while. Either way they're a better team this year
 

Middle also led in that Syracuse game in the second half, and then they went on a 21-2 run when we got into foul trouble and couldn't buy a basket. Not that 'Cuse didn't end up beating MT handily, but I feel like context is important when folks bring that game up.

Good luck today, Gophers! I wish we weren't getting so much hype. I'll be curious to see how Middle plays under these circumstances. I expect a close game.

Sounds like the start of our Michigan game. Missed layups and bunnies and they hit everything for about 7-8 mns. That's how it goes in CBB and why anyone can win in single elimination tournaments. For all the talk about today's game the difference could simply be whether our guards hit good looks they get against the zone. hit 4-15 and lose or hit 7-15 and win.
 


If any of you had to compare MTSU to a Big Ten team, who do some of you think they resemble the most? 30-4 is great however you slice it, but how would MTSU have done against the grind of a high major schedule

for our game today, doesn't matter once they reach the tourney. 12 vs 5 are 10/10 over the last five years
 

Common opponent:

Middle Tennessee State rolled Vanderbilt 71-48 just 5 days after the Gophers squeaked by Vanderbilt 56-52

Tennessee State Beat Middle Tennessee and then went on to lose by 24 against Vandy.
 

Biggest difference between last year's MSU and Syracuse games is 59% shooting from 3 pt land vs MSU, and 29% shooting from 3 pt land vs Syracuse.

And MTSU is going up against the #11 ranked team in the nation, defending against the 3.


So its simple, when they shoot 59% from 3 pt land, they can beat a #2 seed like MSU, but when they only shoot 29%, they can lose to a team like Syracuse by 25.

And everyone keeps saying that MTSU is better this year? Their guy who shot something like 40% from 3 pt land last year, is only shooting 29% this year. But they did add a transfer from Arkansas. Why did he leave that cbb jaugernaut Arkansas? Not saying he sucks, just asking an honest and legitimate question.
 

The only games we have been beaten somewhat handily are the MSu, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan where they got hot from the field ( 8 for 10 threes in the second half of the maryland& Wisconsin games) Walton got super hot in the finishing stretch and the msu away loss the whole msu team couldn't miss - all are other losses have been close or overtime....
 

I'll take my sad victory lap that I seemed to be the only one on this thread that thought MTSU was good.

In my opinion, we didn't even play that poorly. MTSU was damn good.
 




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