Great analysis I found from a college basketball site.
http://three-man-weave.com/3mw/2017/3/15/2016-17-ncaa-tournament-preview-south-region
"Initial Thoughts:
This is going to be the sexiest upset pick of the entire first round. After last year’s spectacular Michigan State upset, Middle Tennessee is now a well-known, public entity and many, including me, thought they deserved to be seeded higher than a 12 (aside: I called MTSU the best 15-seed of all-time last year before the tournament – please allow me to shamelessly toot my own horn). On the other hand, despite all their success this season, I’d wager a hefty amount that most average basketball fans don’t 1) know anything about Minnesota and 2) think they are over-seeded on the 5-line. That last part may be true (I had them at a 6), but rest assured the Gophers are not a team to take lightly.
Minnesota on Offense:
The Gophers are a very talented young team, but offense isn’t really their strong suit. Minnesota mostly runs a dribble hand-off offense at the top of the key that usually results in one of the guards (Nate Mason, Dupree McBrayer, or Amir Coffey) attacking the basket from the wings. When this motion is working, it can be beautiful to watch, with wing slashers able to take the ball to the rack or dump to a post-man when his man steps up to help. However, this offense can also lead to inefficiencies. Michigan was able to shut down the Gopher weave attack, forcing the Minny guards to drive east and west rather than the preferred north and south. This lateral-to-the-bucket movement can lead to turnovers and poor shot selection. Minnesota ranks 23rd in the country in two-point jumper attempts, and while most of these jumpers are within 15 feet, it’s not the most ideal form of offense. The Gophers are a below-average shooting team from both inside and behind the arc. The frontcourt tandem of Jordan Murphy, Eric Curry, and Reggie Lynch helps make up for this futility with offensive boards, but strong rebounding squads can thwart this second-chance reliance. There are positives to the Gopher attack, however – Nate Mason is one of the best point guards in the country and possesses one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the nation (5.0apg; 1.8tpg). His vision sets up easy flushes and open looks that are all too valuable for this team. Coffey, a fantastic freshman, Murphy, a rising Big Ten star, and McBrayer, a much-improved sophomore, all get to the line at a high rate, which often bails out the mediocre jump-shooting approach.
Middle Tennessee is going to be able to compete with the Gophers on their defensive end. The Blue Raiders are the 12th best defensive rebounding team in the country behind Arkansas transfer Jacorey Williams and 2016 Tournament hero Reggie Upshaw. The pair combined to average over 14 boards per contest this season, and should be able to fend off the bigger Lynch / Murphy / Curry combo. This first point should be troubling to Gopher fans – the next two should be uplifting. MTSU can be scored on via the Gophers’ preferred method. MTSU is vulnerable in and around the paint area, allowing a high percentage of 10-15 foot shot attempts and they are a bottom-60 squad when it comes to not sending opponents to the free throw line. With a thin frontcourt, foul trouble to Williams or Upshaw could spell trouble for MTSU.
Middle Tennessee on Offense:
The Blue Raider offense is a three-pronged attack led by Williams, Upshaw, and the superlative Giddy Potts. Williams and Upshaw are both versatile forwards able to post up their defenders or take them off the dribble. This last bit works especially well against slower bigs that don’t like to get out and defend on the perimeter. A guy like Reggie Lynch could be exploited here – Jordan Murphy can probably hold his own. Potts is within his shooting range as soon as he steps into the gym. The junior guard shot a stupid 50% from three last season, but “only” 39% this year. He is MTSU’s only consistent three-point threat. Like the Gophers, the Raiders have a tendency to settle for “inefficient” jumpers, particularly Williams who often likes to pull up from about 18 feet instead of taking his man to the rack. Despite sometimes making “inefficient” shot choices, Williams shot an impressive 55.2% from the field this season, and the Raiders as a team ranked 28th in 2PFG% and 82nd in 3PFG%. Coach Kermit Davis, a trendy pick for a major coaching hire next season, prefers to play at a slowed-down tempo – MTSU will milk the shot clock down until about 10 seconds before settling for a shot. This style favors a mid-major upset bid as it limits possessions and, therefore, opponent scoring.
As implied in the section above, the Gophers didn’t earn a 5-seed because of their offense – they earned one because of their defense, which ranked 18th in the country per KenPom.com. Minnesota doesn’t pressure and force turnovers, nor do they necessarily dominate the defensive glass; they just make it very, very difficult to get off a clean shot. The Gophers’ defense ranked 11th in 3PFG%, 23rd in 2PFG%, 3rd in BLK%, and 38th in foul rate. These metrics indicate the Gophers are experts at defending without fouling and contesting jump shooters. As a team, Minnesota ranks 6th in the country in post-up points per possession allowed and 33rd in spot-up points per possession allowed – worrisome for a MTSU squad that likes to work through the post and shoot mid-range jumpers.
Key Factor(s):
Which offense will be able to crack the other’s defense? This matchup features two squads that can defend the other, particularly the Gophers when they guard the Raiders. MTSU will need to defend without fouling in order to limit easy free-throw points and keep their most valuable players on the floor. On the other side, Minnesota will need another shooter to step up. With Akeem Springs lost for the rest of the season, Mason becomes the only volume three-point shooter on the floor. McBrayer has the potential to be this guy, as he converted a team-high 41.7% of his attempts this year. Pitino’s crew should also look to work the drives and Lynch post-ups in hopes of taking Williams out of the game early. Tempo will also be a factor in this one with MTSU preferring the slow-down and the Gophers looking to push the pace.
Final Predictions:
I feel like taking Minnesota is actually taking the “underdog” in this one – and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. When 75% of people in your bracket pool miss this game because of the perceived awesomeness of MTSU (I actually do really like this team) and the “12 vs. 5” matchup lore, you’ll be sitting pretty with Minnesota in your second round."
