Looking at Middle Tennessee State


I guess I'm not seeing a huge size discrepancy. We've got a few pounds on them, but it's not like they have a bunch of 6-6 guys in their front court.

Lynch 6-10, 260
Murphy 6-6, 240
Konate 6-11, 235
Curry 6-9, 235

Williams, 6-8, 220 top scorer
Upshaw 6-8, 228 third-leading scorer
Walters, 6-10, 265 limited contribution
 

Why do we keep referencing Pitino beating them years ago and the gophers beating them under Tubby? It doesn't matter. These guys weren't playing. None of them. Coffey was probably in grade school.

Agree, this team doesn't have the experience of past Gopher teams of playing in the humidity that MTSU will undoubtedly bring with them. They better bring plenty of extra Gatorade.
 

I think all the experts are picking against us simply because we aren't on the same tier historically as the other five seeds. Notre Dame, Virginia, Iowa State are all pretty good teams the last few years. Since we have not had this success, it's an easy upset pick to jump on.

Love that we don't get respect though, lets stomp MTSU. They haven't played a team like us all season.
 

I think all the experts are picking against us simply because we aren't on the same tier historically as the other five seeds. Notre Dame, Virginia, Iowa State are all pretty good teams the last few years. Since we have not had this success, it's an easy upset pick to jump on.

Love that we don't get respect though, lets stomp MTSU. They haven't played a team like us all season.

The Springs injury could be part of it, but I haven't seen it mentioned much, as well as the fact that a 5 seed is a tad generous for us probably, though not unreasonable IMO. I think we ended up favored against UCLA in 2013, in part because of an injury to one of their players.
 


MTSU fans seem pretty confident on there message boards. Someone proclaimed, and I am paraphrasing here, "there is no reason we shouldn't beat them handily."
 

The Springs injury could be part of it, but I haven't seen it mentioned much, as well as the fact that a 5 seed is a tad generous for us probably, though not unreasonable IMO. I think we ended up favored against UCLA in 2013, in part because of an injury to one of their players.

Yeah, the Springs injury hurts. Which makes the five seed even more surprising. But MTSU has played three teams in the tournament this season and are 2-1. I just don't think they've had to face anyone near the caliber of the Gophers (sounds cocky, but Vanderbilt is their toughest opponent). I think Pitino will figure out a way to fill the Springs void with a week to prepare. Who knows, the whole NCAA tourney can be a crapshoot though. 28 of their 33 opponents are outside the top 100 RPI, while 13 of our 33 are outside top 100.
 

ESPN loves MTSU.
So that's good.

MTSU didn't play many great teams. Maybe one tournament team in Vandy.

(They are watching our forum over at their forum to see what we say.)

When you look at first round upsets, the three pointer is a great equalizer, but with their three point shooting not that great and our ability to defend the three, that should take that out of the picture.

As mentioned, in the game against MSU last year, they shot 56% from three to win 90-81.
TWO DAYS LATER, 75-50 beaten by 11 seed Syracuse. In that game, they shot 29%.

What I say is, with Mason at guard, and the options we have we have nothing to worry about. Their 6-8 guy will be going against some Big Ten size.
If MTSU gets a horseshoe up their butt, they win maybe, but nothing to out of the ordinary here. Your typical 5-12 matchup where the 5 should win 75% of the time.



In other news, I like our draw. Play two non-majors (well... Big East...) until sweet sixteen which would be North Carolina.
If we'd advance to a game against N.C., we would still be "under the radar" and highly expected to lose that game of course nationally as well.
 

If we'd advance to a game against N.C., we would still be "under the radar" and highly expected to lose that game of course nationally as well.

If we advance to the Sweet Sixteen, I don't care if UNC beats us by 25. We would have so far exceeded my expectations for the year.
 



Saw last year's MTSU team play SDSU in a December game in the Pentagon in Sioux Falls. It looks like many of those players are back. They were a deep, athletic team that played tough defense. In that game, they had trouble shooting the ball - I believe the score was in the 60's. Their bigs were not great. Lynch and Murphy should dominate inside. They will come at you hard for 40 minutes though, and the Gopher's lack of depth could be a factor.
 

Why do we keep referencing Pitino beating them years ago and the gophers beating them under Tubby? It doesn't matter. These guys weren't playing. None of them. Coffey was probably in grade school.

Grade school? You were making a somewhat legitimate point before you chose to exaggerate. Our beating them in the NIT may not have been with the same players, for either program, theirs might be better, but our's are not? And the point of Pitino's beating them just says that he's familiar with the coach and won't be intimidated having to play him. And we beat MSU this year, and we beat Purdue and Maryland, who has MTSU beaten? UNC-W? They've also lost to UTEP, Tennessee St and Georgia St. and those last 2 were home games. Gopher's haven't lost to anyone that bad.
 

I think all the experts are picking against us simply because we aren't on the same tier historically as the other five seeds. Notre Dame, Virginia, Iowa State are all pretty good teams the last few years. Since we have not had this success, it's an easy upset pick to jump on.

Love that we don't get respect though, lets stomp MTSU. They haven't played a team like us all season.

The experts are picking against us because they look for double digit teams that they can pick as upsets- it makes them look smarter and it makes things more interesting. I'd bet most of them haven't even seen MTSU play and if they have it's once. MTSU did it before so it's logical they can do it again. It's an easy pick for them to look good on.
 

I don't know who is going to win the game.

We might lose, but I'm not going to hide in a corner between now and Thursday expecting some team from Conference USA to come in and beat us after they've notched a total of 4 Top 100 RPI wins.


Looking past MTSU, I'm happy with our #4 seed in Butler. I haven't seen them play, but the fact they are from the Big East makes me feel good.
 



The experts are picking against us because they look for double digit teams that they can pick as upsets- it makes them look smarter and it makes things more interesting. I'd bet most of them haven't even seen MTSU play and if they have it's once. MTSU did it before so it's logical they can do it again. It's an easy pick for them to look good on.


People love to pick low seeds against traditional non-power teams.
If we had the same team and it said Wisconsin on our jersey, 90% would be going with us.
If we had the same team and it said Northwestern on our jersey, 98% would be going with us.

The only surplus of votes we'll get is from people who watch basketball.
 

A lot of people are picking MTSU because at least one 12 wins a first-round game almost every year, so everyone wants to get a jump on which one will do it this year. We are easily the least pedigreed and least accomplished in recent years among the 5 seeds, so it makes a ton of sense that people would gravitate toward this matchup as the upset special for this year.

If we play our game the way we're capable (even with Springs out) we should control the game and win by 6-10 points.
 

I don't know who is going to win the game.

We might lose, but I'm not going to hide in a corner between now and Thursday expecting some team from Conference USA to come in and beat us after they've notched a total of 4 Top 100 RPI wins.


Looking past MTSU, I'm happy with our #4 seed in Butler. I haven't seen them play, but the fact they are from the Big East makes me feel good.

Very good point, and the last of those Top 100 victories came on December 14th... That's a long time to go without beating anybody...
 

Agree, this team doesn't have the experience of past Gopher teams of playing in the humidity that MTSU will undoubtedly bring with them. They better bring plenty of extra Gatorade.

Yes, the heat and humidity within the porous Bradley Center... you beat me to this reality. The Gophers are in trouble, especially if it gets warm in the building. maybe the ice form the Milwaukee minor league hockey team will be under the court.

Back in 2010, I almost died in Baptist Hospital, from renal failure after watching the Gophers beat MTSU in Murfreesboro Tn. It was so hot, but the MTSU dance team (probably #2 that year) had me do distracted that I drank nothing but beer before the great Tim Brewster led win that year. After the Raider Dancer routine, I woke up in Johnny Cash's old room at Baptist Hosptial.

I am mainly concerned about the fact that the Bradley Center is surrounded by the Milwaukee River on two sides as least and Lake Michigan is near. Lots of water equals lots of humidity that only players used to living in the "mid south" can prepare for.

I am worried.
 

Grade school? You were making a somewhat legitimate point before you chose to exaggerate. Our beating them in the NIT may not have been with the same players, for either program, theirs might be better, but our's are not? And the point of Pitino's beating them just says that he's familiar with the coach and won't be intimidated having to play him. And we beat MSU this year, and we beat Purdue and Maryland, who has MTSU beaten? UNC-W? They've also lost to UTEP, Tennessee St and Georgia St. and those last 2 were home games. Gopher's haven't lost to anyone that bad.

What year did the Gophers play MTSU in the NIT? 2012. Coffey was a 9th grader. Sorry. I was off by a couple years.
 


I don't know who is going to win the game.

We might lose, but I'm not going to hide in a corner between now and Thursday expecting some team from Conference USA to come in and beat us after they've notched a total of 4 Top 100 RPI wins.


Looking past MTSU, I'm happy with our #4 seed in Butler. I haven't seen them play, but the fact they are from the Big East makes me feel good.

Butler is responsible for 2 of Villanova's 3 losses, beat Arizona, swept Marquette, and beat Cincinnati. They are 4-0 against the RPI top 25 and 16-5 against the top 100. They are a better team than us. That doesn't mean that we can't win, but it would definitely be an upset. If we do make it to round 2 and play them, they will be favored by a few points.
 

We're not actually concerned about the humidity in Milwaukee in March, are we?

Luckily Mason, Curry and Murphy are from the South
 

Butler is responsible for 2 of Villanova's 3 losses, beat Arizona, swept Marquette, and beat Cincinnati. They are 4-0 against the RPI top 25 and 16-5 against the top 100. They are a better team than us. That doesn't mean that we can't win, but it would definitely be an upset. If we do make it to round 2 and play them, they will be favored by a few points.

You and your damn facts. What a downer! :(
 

Nevada is a much stronger 12 seed than MTSU. They should be the popular pick but they won't because MTSU won last year.
 

We're not actually concerned about the humidity in Milwaukee in March, are we?

Luckily Mason, Curry and Murphy are from the South

I see you joined relatively recently. It's an old joke from 2010 I think, when we went to Murfreesboro to play a road football game at MTSU, and there was a MTSU fan here named Dance4Raiders I think, who said that the heat and humidity would be on a level that our players hadn't seen before, and that it could be a deciding factor in giving MTSU the win.
 

If we advance to the Sweet Sixteen, I don't care if UNC beats us by 25. We would have so far exceeded my expectations for the year.

A five seed in the NCAA tournament hasn't exceeded your season expectations so far?
 


A full page of, "people are picking MTSU because they want to pick and upset" or, "they beat MSU."

The spread is now even (pick em). It's hard to fully trust the KenPom and Sagarin numbers on the smaller conference teams, but we should only be favored by 2 or 3 points according to those, and we are missing Springs. That's why people are picking them. They're good, and while we deserve a 5 with our resumè, most of those metrics don't agree.
 

Middle Tennessee | Seed: 12 | Region: South

A year after their upset of Michigan State as a 15-seed, the Conference USA champs got a dream draw. Minnesota really isn’t anything special; it lacks NCAA tournament experience that Middle Tennessee has; and if the Blue Raiders get hot like they did last year, the Golden Gophers won’t be able to keep up.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/select...-favorable-march-madness-draws-010507652.html
Selection Sunday 2017 winners and losers: Which teams got favorable March Madness draws?

This makes it seem like they went on a big run last year. They got hot and won one game, the got crushed by Syracuse. The one win was a great one, but it's not like they have a ton of tournament experience either.

Going to be a tough game if we don't get the inside game going. Dominate them down low, get to the foul line, and make the FT's.
 

Good news is that we probably won't need Bakary's services for this game. Curry should be able to matchup against their 5's.
 

A full page of, "people are picking MTSU because they want to pick and upset" or, "they beat MSU."

The spread is now even (pick em). It's hard to fully trust the KenPom and Sagarin numbers on the smaller conference teams, but we should only be favored by 2 or 3 points according to those, and we are missing Springs. That's why people are picking them. They're good, and while we deserve a 5 with our resumè, most of those metrics don't agree.


They are good??? According to what standards? I've been analyzing teams to see who should get the at large invites for weeks now, and honestly, if MTSU had not won their conference tourney, they wouldn't have gotten into the tourney. THREE bad losses, TWO of them home games, just 2 Top 50 wins and only 4 Top 100 wins?? Compare their resume to the likes of Iowa and Syracuse who didn't get in. Would Iowa or Syracuse be picked to beat us? I'd be far more scared of Iowa or Syracuse.

They beat a whole bunch of creampuffs, I'm not impressed. Last year, when they beat MSU, they shot 56% from 3 pt land. But only 29% vs Syracuse the very next game. If they can shoot 56% against our defense, then good for them, they deserve it. But what are the odds they will do that?
 




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