Looking at Middle Tennessee State

They are good??? According to what standards? I've been analyzing teams to see who should get the at large invites for weeks now, and honestly, if MTSU had not won their conference tourney, they wouldn't have gotten into the tourney. THREE bad losses, TWO of them home games, just 2 Top 50 wins and only 4 Top 100 wins?? Compare their resume to the likes of Iowa and Syracuse who didn't get in. Would Iowa or Syracuse be picked to beat us? I'd be far more scared of Iowa or Syracuse.

They beat a whole bunch of creampuffs, I'm not impressed. Last year, when they beat MSU, they shot 56% from 3 pt land. But only 29% vs Syracuse the very next game. If they can shoot 56% against our defense, then good for them, they deserve it. But what are the odds they will do that?

I agree with you on this. They are a good quality mid major team but the entire reason they are seen as a likely upset is because they beat MSU last year and because there tends to be a 5 vs 12 upset - neither of which have anything to do with what they have actually displayed on the court. I wouldn't be surprised if MTSU made it a close game or even won, but I think we should be pretty confident the gophers will advance unless they absolutely fall apart. Like both Lynch and Murphy fouling out, Mason gets dribble happy, Dupree not being able to make a shot to save his life, Konate and Curry getting entirely lost on defense - I think literally all of those things need to happen for the gophers to lose. We play a style that is good for the tournament - solid defense and rebounding, guard the 3 point line, don't turn the ball over, let your guards make plays. And We don't rely on the 3pt shot which is always good because I think a lot of times if you rely on 3's, the tourney environment has a way of clamping down on your offense (I think ucla is going to have a lot of trouble for this reason). No clue what happened with MSU last year, but I have a feeling it was a 1 in 100 type situation and I don't think MTSU is sneaking up on the gophers.


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They are good??? According to what standards? I've been analyzing teams to see who should get the at large invites for weeks now, and honestly, if MTSU had not won their conference tourney, they wouldn't have gotten into the tourney. THREE bad losses, TWO of them home games, just 2 Top 50 wins and only 4 Top 100 wins?? Compare their resume to the likes of Iowa and Syracuse who didn't get in. Would Iowa or Syracuse be picked to beat us? I'd be far more scared of Iowa or Syracuse.

They beat a whole bunch of creampuffs, I'm not impressed. Last year, when they beat MSU, they shot 56% from 3 pt land. But only 29% vs Syracuse the very next game. If they can shoot 56% against our defense, then good for them, they deserve it. But what are the odds they will do that?

They beat a lot of cream puffs yes, but there is a lot to be said about only losing 4 games all year. These are still D1 teams, not some guys off the street. A sign of a good team is showing up and doing what is expected night in and night out. I still expect Minnesota to win because I think we have the firepower to do so, but I feel like you're underselling MTSU. Personally I think they are just as good as Iowa or Cuse.
 

They beat a lot of cream puffs yes, but there is a lot to be said about only losing 4 games all year. These are still D1 teams, not some guys off the street. A sign of a good team is showing up and doing what is expected night in and night out. I still expect Minnesota to win because I think we have the firepower to do so, but I feel like you're underselling MTSU. Personally I think they are just as good as Iowa or Cuse.

Then I have to assume that you have NOT looked at SU's or Iowa's resumes, and compared them with MTSU's. Seriously. Are you kidding me?


Ok, how do you think Minnesota would have done vs MTSU's schedule, do you honestly think Minnesota would have lost to #106 Georgia State AT HOME, or #161 Tennessee State AT HOME or #222 UTEP??? and more importantly, how do you think MTSU would have done vs Minnesota's schedule.
 

Richard's FIU team beat a very talented MTSU team back in the 2013 Sun Belt tournament. MTSU went 28-5 that year heading into the tournament. They got an 11 seed, but lost the play in game to St. Mary's. Obviously different teams, but same coach, so at least Richard will have some familiarity with what Kermit Davis likes to do.
 

After carefully weighing everyone's opinion up to this point. I think the Gopher's will win.
 


"A year after their upset of Michigan State as a No. 15 seed, the Conference USA champs got a dream draw. Minnesota really isn’t anything special; it lacks NCAA tournament experience that Middle Tennessee has; and if the Blue Raiders get hot like they did last year, the Golden Gophers won’t be able to keep up. In fact, if Middle Tennessee’s form during its 10-game win streak carries over into the Big Dance, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the No. 12 seed upset Butler in the second round and reach the Sweet 16."

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/s...-favorable-march-madness-draws-010507652.html
 

Then I have to assume that you have NOT looked at SU's or Iowa's resumes, and compared them with MTSU's. Seriously. Are you kidding me?


Ok, how do you think Minnesota would have done vs MTSU's schedule, do you honestly think Minnesota would have lost to #106 Georgia State AT HOME, or #161 Tennessee State AT HOME or #222 UTEP??? and more importantly, how do you think MTSU would have done vs Minnesota's schedule.

I don't know if they would've lost those games specifically, but I wouldn't doubt they would've lost 2-3 games with MTSU's schedule. Basketball is hard, you have bad games while your opponent has a good game, it happens.

MTSU would've done worse than Minnesota with Minnesota's schedule obviously, Minnesota is the better team. I don't think they would've been Rutgers or anything though.

I'm not arguing that MTSU is gonna beat us or anything, just that they are better than you are giving them credit for, and it annoys me when Gopher fans overlook the strength of our opponents. Saying they are bad when they have bad losses is disingenuous when basically every team they've played has a low ranking. Off games happen, they don't define your team. Only 4 losses against any level is impressive.

Despite this I expect the gophers to win, I think we are deeper and that Mason and Coffey will exploit their guards, but I expect it to be a close, hard-fought game between two good teams.
 


Gophers got good seed but grossly underseeded opponent

Middle Tennessee is better than they were last year, and last year they were good enough to beat a #2 seed Michigan State team that was absolutely ROLLING (like Michigan this year) heading into the NCAA Tournament. MTSU returns a lot of key players (led by Potts & Upshaw) and now have added their leading scorer (Williams). Quite frankly, anyone who thinks Middle Tennessee isn't fully capable of beating the Gophers (especially minus Springs, and now zero guard depth) or downplays their 30-4 record isn't paying attention.

All that said, I love it that pretty much everywhere you look the talking heads are picking MTSU. I think that's awesome. Wally Szczerbiak went as far to say MTSU would kill the Gophers, as did Danny Granger. Keep doing it. Keep ignoring MTSU's opponent, that's OK. The only analyst I've seen pick the Gophers is Steve Lappas, and he had them to the Sweet 16 (also beating Winthrop).
 



i don't know which are on scholarship, but mtsu have 5 SRs and 5 JRs. If the Refs call a close game, mtsu can go deeper than we can

Very true, I guess I meant in terms of I trust that we have 6 guys that I trust to score if needed and make an impact, while it appears they only have 3 guys they lean on heavily to produce.
 

I have some deep information to drop. I think MTSU will try to get our bigs in foul trouble.
 

They are good??? According to what standards? I've been analyzing teams to see who should get the at large invites for weeks now, and honestly, if MTSU had not won their conference tourney, they wouldn't have gotten into the tourney. THREE bad losses, TWO of them home games, just 2 Top 50 wins and only 4 Top 100 wins?? Compare their resume to the likes of Iowa and Syracuse who didn't get in. Would Iowa or Syracuse be picked to beat us? I'd be far more scared of Iowa or Syracuse.

They beat a whole bunch of creampuffs, I'm not impressed. Last year, when they beat MSU, they shot 56% from 3 pt land. But only 29% vs Syracuse the very next game. If they can shoot 56% against our defense, then good for them, they deserve it. But what are the odds they will do that?

I've got news for you: Vegas' lines are generally very sharp.

Maybe we win this game by 15 points, but Vegas is Vegas because they project these lines pretty well. I'll defer to them that this game should be close. If you don't believe so, you can easily go get rich on this.
 




They are a good quality mid major team but the entire reason they are seen as a likely upset is because they beat MSU last year...

Why is that so irrelevant in your mind?

Does everyone not realize that there are roster carryovers (Potts, Upshaw, et al)?
 

I think MTSU can beat the Gophers, but it's like 1 out of every 5 games.

Hard to say if they pull the upset.
I don't think MTSU will shot 50+% from 3 point land however.
If they do, they win.
 

A full page of, "people are picking MTSU because they want to pick and upset" or, "they beat MSU."

The spread is now even (pick em). It's hard to fully trust the KenPom and Sagarin numbers on the smaller conference teams, but we should only be favored by 2 or 3 points according to those, and we are missing Springs. That's why people are picking them. They're good, and while we deserve a 5 with our resumè, most of those metrics don't agree.

Agreed. And frankly, when do the tv talking heads pick upsets? Rarely. You don't look "smart" picking a bunch of upsets that don't happen. You look "smart" by picking all the one and two seeds to advance, and if they get upset, who could have seen that coming?

I think of the year Curry and Davidson went on a run, they were the hot low seed that year. There is always a hot low seed, and a lot of times they win. And even though it's nice to play close to home in Milwaukee, I imagine a lot of Badger fans will go to the game and cheer for MTSU, I don't think this will be much of an advantage. It would for the second round game.

Tough tough game, we will have to play well to win, period. An off game and we lose.
 

Why is that so irrelevant in your mind?

Does everyone not realize that there are roster carryovers (Potts, Upshaw, et al)?

Although it was a nice win, it seems to be more along the lines of a fluke win against MSU than something that is repeatable on their behalf.

Getting trounced by a Syracuse team that was a bubble team should show just as much.
 

Agreed. And frankly, when do the tv talking heads pick upsets? Rarely. You don't look "smart" picking a bunch of upsets that don't happen. You look "smart" by picking all the one and two seeds to advance, and if they get upset, who could have seen that coming?

I think of the year Curry and Davidson went on a run, they were the hot low seed that year. There is always a hot low seed, and a lot of times they win. And even though it's nice to play close to home in Milwaukee, I imagine a lot of Badger fans will go to the game and cheer for MTSU, I don't think this will be much of an advantage. It would for the second round game.

Tough tough game, we will have to play well to win, period. An off game and we lose.


On the bracketology show, 3 of the 4 ESPN experts picked NC/Duke for the final.

Wow, who would have thunk it!
 

If the bugs avoid foul trouble I think we'll be ok.


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We are the lowest ranked 5 seed, so we drew the top rated 12 seed, right? Throw in the facts that 12s historically beat 5s and Springs' injury, I'm not surprised all the experts are picking against us.

1 or 2 #5 seeds most likely will lose. I have Iowa St. losing to Nevada and seriously considered picking UNC-Wilmington over Virginia. Could Princeton beat Notre Dame? Maybe.

I just think the Gophers are the easiest to pick against due to last year's record and Springs' injury. It makes sense.

Personally, I think the Gophers will figure it out on how to play without Springs and make it to the Sweet 16 after dispatching Butler in the second round!

Go Gophers!
 

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in case everyone forgot about the meltdown against a Mediocre Syracuse team.
 

I'd rather play MTSU than other 12 seeds Princeton or Nevada. The Tigers can drain 3s and play Becky Ball that we struggle with and Nevada dominated a stronger conference than MTSU.
 

Although it was a nice win, it seems to be more along the lines of a fluke win against MSU than something that is repeatable on their behalf.

Getting trounced by a Syracuse team that was a bubble team should show just as much.

Thanks. Didn't know they lost to Syracuse. Vandy went the other way for them and is also a common opponent. In any event, if our bigs play well, I think we take this in a ten-point W.
 

Visit WatchESPN.com, search "middle" and select "last 30 days". There are a couple of ESPN3 games to watch if you want to get a feel for them.

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We are the lowest ranked 5 seed, so we drew the top rated 12 seed, right? Throw in the facts that 12s historically beat 5s and Springs' injury, I'm not surprised all the experts are picking against us.

1 or 2 #5 seeds most likely will lose. I have Iowa St. losing to Nevada and seriously considered picking UNC-Wilmington over Virginia. Could Princeton beat Notre Dame? Maybe.

I just think the Gophers are the easiest to pick against due to last year's record and Springs' injury. It makes sense.

Personally, I think the Gophers will figure it out on how to play without Springs and make it to the Sweet 16 after dispatching Butler in the second round!

Go Gophers!

No. We are the 18th overall seed, the 2nd highest ranked 5 seed. Jay 'Harley' Williams was freaking out about GOphers being ranked higher (aka the same) as #19 Notre Dame and #20 Iowa State. ESPN's blatant bias aganst Big Ten has to be over BTN taking away revenue away from them by not only taking away BT broadcasting rights but paving the roads for other conferences to start their own networks.
 

Agreed. And frankly, when do the tv talking heads pick upsets? Rarely. You don't look "smart" picking a bunch of upsets that don't happen. You look "smart" by picking all the one and two seeds to advance, and if they get upset, who could have seen that coming?

I think of the year Curry and Davidson went on a run, they were the hot low seed that year. There is always a hot low seed, and a lot of times they win. And even though it's nice to play close to home in Milwaukee, I imagine a lot of Badger fans will go to the game and cheer for MTSU, I don't think this will be much of an advantage. It would for the second round game.

Tough tough game, we will have to play well to win, period. An off game and we lose.

Doubt there will be many Badger fans that go just to root against the Gophers since they are not playing in Milwaukee. Anyways this match up would worry me more if MTSU was good from three, I think they are worst at it than we are, despite playing against lesser competition. seems like they're best two players are in the front court where Murphy and Lynch await. I admit that if they are in foul trouble that opens the door for the Blue raiders, and i also think they're guards will have trouble with McBreyer and Coffey's length on both sides of the ball. Throw in First team All Big Ten Nate Mason as the best player on the court to boot. I also think to battle fatigue they'll need about 5-10 minutes from Hurt or Gilbert, probably Hurt because he is the better defender, though if we get down early I could see Gilbert getting a little run
 

One Bracketology show I watched has 0 upsets on the 5/12 line, all 3 agreed and said that IF one happened it would be Mid Tennessee. It's fair to point to this line as a tough matchup as it's often an at large power 5 vs a quality mid-major with something to prove.

The question is whether the Gophers defense is as good as we think it is and do we take this "disrespect" on the chin and wear it or do we use it as fuel and pound these guys?
 

Doubt there will be many Badger fans that go just to root against the Gophers since they are not playing in Milwaukee. Anyways this match up would worry me more if MTSU was good from three, I think they are worst at it than we are, despite playing against lesser competition. seems like they're best two players are in the front court where Murphy and Lynch await. I admit that if they are in foul trouble that opens the door for the Blue raiders, and i also think they're guards will have trouble with McBreyer and Coffey's length on both sides of the ball. Throw in First team All Big Ten Nate Mason as the best player on the court to boot. I also think to battle fatigue they'll need about 5-10 minutes from Hurt or Gilbert, probably Hurt because he is the better defender, though if we get down early I could see Gilbert getting a little run

Correct me if I am wrong, but during March madness don't teams get a larger allocation of full timeouts? Also, isn't halftime longer? If so, that will be a big benefit for this team allowing our 6 man rotation plenty of opportunity for rest. Regardless, would love to see Gilbert get some minutes. I think he could be a huge spark plug if he can drain some threes!
 

matchups

On paper I definitely agree about Nevada and Princeton as harder teams to prepare for. Usually teams without standout guards do not do well in the tourney. Pitts is good but the other 3 are below average. Their two forwards are good and active. While it would be nice to have Springs who has the frame to be physical with Pitts, and also Spring's 3 pt shooting. I rather miss Springs than someone like Curry as their frontcourt is better than their backcourt.

I would put Murphy on their center Upshaw 6-8 230 as he has 3pt range and we no way want Lynch guarding anyone out there. Have lynch guard J. Williams inside. If Lynch gets an early foul, just one, I would put Curry in and save lynch until near the end of the half.

Coffey should practice posting up this week as he will have 6 inches on anyone guarding him.

If we stay out of foul trouble we can neutralize their frontcourt and have a good advantage in the backcourt.
We should have an advantage on the boards. They don't get many steals for a mid major. They shoot ok percentage from 3 but don't take many. We are better overall at the free throw line.

**Don't get careless with the ball, Lynch and Murphy don't get over-aggressive and get in foul trouble, and we need 1 or 2 of Mason, McBrayer, and Coffey to hit some 3's.



I'd rather play MTSU than other 12 seeds Princeton or Nevada. The Tigers can drain 3s and play Becky Ball that we struggle with and Nevada dominated a stronger conference than MTSU.
 




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