MTSU has THREE BAD losses, including 2 home games. They lost to #222 UTEP in February, and as recently as March 2nd, they beat #338 FIU by a whole THREE points, AT HOME!!! There are only 13 teams rated worse than FIU. They lost to VCU. They have a grand total of 2 Top 50 wins, one of those vs Vandy, the other vs UNC-W, and a total of 4 Top 100 wins.
They have some lopsided wins, sure, but wouldn't we have a bunch of lopsided wins vs their schedule? But they also have some close wins vs some very questionably rated teams. Their road win vs #338 FIU was also by only 3 points. Their win vs #198 UAB was by only 2 pts. Their win over #155 Toledo was by only 3 pts. And their HOME BAD losses to Georgia St and Tennessee St were not close losses, they were an 8 pt loss and an 11 pt loss.
If they didn't get in by virtue of winning their conference tourney, they would not have gotten an at large bid.
The only reason people are picking them to upset Minnesota is because they are lazy and only remember that they upset MSU last year, so figure it is a good uneducated GUESS.