Lunardi Bracketology 3/11

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I like the six seed... avoid the 1 seeds as long as possible.
 







At this stage I think we are locked at a 5 with the number of conference road wins, top 50 wins, RPI and SOS. Win the BIG tourney and we get a 4.

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That would be nice. Baylor is talented.....but very beatable. A good defensive team could give them fits.
 



I think how we play against scUM today matters a great deal when it comes to seeding. We lost a starter for the year yesterday...can we still perform well without Springs. We win today against scUM and play tough in the finals we are no worse than a 5 seed and if we win it all we are a top 4 or low 3 seed IMO. We have won 9 of 10 and if we win next two that is 11 of 12 with wins against every team in Big Ten (assuming Sconnie beats NWU).
 


mnhoopboy said:
At this stage I think we are locked at a 5 with the number of conference road wins, top 50 wins, RPI and SOS. Win the BIG tourney and we get a 4.

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We lose today very good chance we are a 6. Wisconsin could jump us, Iowa state could jump us, freight on could jump us, SMU could.

They're all still in play for their conference tourneys.


I don't think we can slip to 7 though.
 

Some guy said:
We lose today very good chance we are a 6. Wisconsin could jump us, Iowa state could jump us, freight on could jump us, SMU could.

They're all still in play for their conference tourneys.


I don't think we can slip to 7 though.
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"Bishop jumps Queen. Knight jumps Queen, Pawns jump Queen....
GANGBANGGGGGG!!!!"

Mel Brooks....History of the World, Pt 1.
 



I think we are a 6 seed. Of all the 3 seeds, Baylor is probably the one I would want to play. In my opinion they've been overrated all year. I'm hoping and praying Duke wins today so they will for sure be a 2, I would hate to end up with them as the 3 in our region. I wouldn't mind playing ucla, I think we match up well with them and they really struggle against good defensive teams.


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I think with Springs out of the lineup, we have to worry about beating our 1st round opponent more than wondering who our 2nd round opponent might be. Those 11 seeds can be tricky.

But I think we'll end up as a #6 seed, and won't bitch too much if we get a #7, seeing as they may take into account Springs injury and our losing 2 of our last 3 games. Sure our rpi says 5-6 seed, but our other metric ratings say 7-8.
 

KillmeNow said:
I think with Springs out of the lineup, we have to worry about beating our 1st round opponent more than wondering who our 2nd round opponent might be. Those 11 seeds can be tricky.

But I think we'll end up as a #6 seed, and won't bitch too much if we get a #7, seeing as they may take into account Springs injury and our losing 2 of our last 3 games. Sure our rpi says 5-6 seed, but our other metric ratings say 7-8.
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Actually our RPI is 16, which would give us the last 4 seed if you're going purely off of that.
 

Keyser Söze said:
Actually our RPI is 16, which would give us the last 4 seed if you're going purely off of that.
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Cbs sportsline has UMn rated #19 in the rpi, not that CBS sportsline is all that reliable, but then they will reconfigure their rating after their loss to Michigan, won't that drop them down? Not that it really matters that much.
 

I would much rather see the Gophers get a 5 seed than a 6 seed. I know that some people have stated that they want a 6 seed so we can avoid a 1 seed until at least the elite 8, but I think playing in Milwaukee for our first two games would be a much better benefit than avoiding the 1 seed until the elite 8. Especially considering we no longer have Akeem, a large Gopher fanbase presence could provide an enormous boost to our players with such a short bench. With that being said, I have compared our resume with some of the other teams competing with us for the 5 seed according to the bracket matrix ( http://bracketmatrix.com/ ) and I think we have a decent chance at a 5, but don't see us any worse than a 6 unless the committee bumps us down one due to Akeem's injury (which I think would be ridiculous).

The reason I think the Gophers have a better resume than a lot of those teams is because of our record vs RPI top 25, top 50 & Top 100. Specifically, look at us compared to the two AAC teams, Cincy & SMU; Cincy - 1-2 vs Top 25, 3-3 vs Top 50 & 7-4 vs Top 100... SMU - 1-1 vs Top 25, 1-3 vs Top 50 & 8-4 vs Top 100. Gophers are 2-1 vs Top 25, 8-7 vs Top 50 & 13-9 vs Top 100. Also, we're better than ISU, Wisconsin, Virginia and Creighton (barely) based on those same criteria. I know there are other criteria that go into the decision, I just wanted to point out that we have a very legitimate chance at a 5 even though we lost today.
 

GopherDude said:
I would much rather see the Gophers get a 5 seed than a 6 seed. I know that some people have stated that they want a 6 seed so we can avoid a 1 seed until at least the elite 8, but I think playing in Milwaukee for our first two games would be a much better benefit than avoiding the 1 seed until the elite 8. Especially considering we no longer have Akeem, a large Gopher fanbase presence could provide an enormous boost to our players with such a short bench. With that being said, I have compared our resume with some of the other teams competing with us for the 5 seed according to the bracket matrix ( http://bracketmatrix.com/ ) and I think we have a decent chance at a 5, but don't see us any worse than a 6 unless the committee bumps us down one due to Akeem's injury (which I think would be ridiculous).

The reason I think the Gophers have a better resume than a lot of those teams is because of our record vs RPI top 25, top 50 & Top 100. Specifically, look at us compared to the two AAC teams, Cincy & SMU; Cincy - 1-2 vs Top 25, 3-3 vs Top 50 & 7-4 vs Top 100... SMU - 1-1 vs Top 25, 1-3 vs Top 50 & 8-4 vs Top 100. Gophers are 2-1 vs Top 25, 8-7 vs Top 50 & 13-9 vs Top 100. Also, we're better than ISU, Wisconsin, Virginia and Creighton (barely) based on those same criteria. I know there are other criteria that go into the decision, I just wanted to point out that we have a very legitimate chance at a 5 even though we lost today.
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I may be incorrect, but I don't believe the 5 or 6 seed has any bearing on whether or not we go to Milwaukee.
 

mnsportsgeek said:
I may be incorrect, but I don't believe the 5 or 6 seed has any bearing on whether or not we go to Milwaukee.
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You would be incorrect. There's no 6 seed that plays in Milwaukee. Two of the four 5 seeds will play their first two games in Milwaukee.

Edit: Disregard, this is wrong.
 



GopherDude said:
You would be incorrect. There's no 6 seed that plays in Milwaukee. Two of the four 5 seeds will play their first two games in Milwaukee.
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I also believe that is incorrect. If you're going by what Lunardi has, he has no idea where each seed is playing. He's guessing. If you look at previous brackets he has released, the locations for each seed change all the time.
 

mnsportsgeek said:
I also believe that is incorrect. If you're going by what Lunardi has, he has no idea where each seed is playing. He's guessing. If you look at previous brackets he has released, the locations for each seed change all the time.
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Nevermind. I'm wrong.

That hurt to say, but at least I said it :(
 

Keyser Söze said:
I guess I don't know when it was last updated, but this link currently has our RPI at 16:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/sort/RPI
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Espn updates their rpi index daily, so it won't yet reflect today's loss. That said, I don't see us dropping further than #19 or #20. We are in a good position to land a 5 seed but it would help a lot if Cinci beats SMU, Duke beats Notre Dame and WVU beats ISU. Probably would also help if Michigan beats Wisconsin tomorrow.


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A nonymous said:
Espn updates their rpi index daily, so it won't yet reflect today's loss. That said, I don't see us dropping further than #19 or #20. We are in a good position to land a 5 seed but it would help a lot if Cinci beats SMU, Duke beats Notre Dame and WVU beats ISU. Probably would also help if Michigan beats Wisconsin tomorrow.


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I am seeing the Gophers RPI now at 22.

That would be a 6 seed.
Not AP ranked, so that would slide us to a 7.

Hopefully just for a 6 at this point, 7 at worst.

Likely teams we could play first round:

Vandy - but we played them, so no.

Xavier
Providence
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Midd Tenn St
USC
Kansas St
Rhode Island
Nevada

I'd say a decent chance of playing a First Four team.
 

I think that the Gophers have a better body of work than SMU or Cincy. However if you dig inside UVA wins inside the top 25 you will see 2 wins over Louisville in total domination and over UNC by a dozen. those are 3 top 10 victories. UW has the head to head as well as finishing ahead in the conference and the conference tourney. Zero chance the committee seeds the Gophers as high as UW and what great win does the U have outside of at Purdue. I think the Gophers are a top 25 team but seeds are handed out on lots of data and none of it is the eye test. Suppose it changes all the time. 10 days ago i thought the Gophers were better then UW or UVA but watching UW beat Northwestern by 30 and UVA hold UNC to 43 ! Glad the committee does this with zero bias as you recuse yourself if it is your conference or your team
 


GopherDude said:
I would much rather see the Gophers get a 5 seed than a 6 seed. I know that some people have stated that they want a 6 seed so we can avoid a 1 seed until at least the elite 8, but I think playing in Milwaukee for our first two games would be a much better benefit than avoiding the 1 seed until the elite 8. Especially considering we no longer have Akeem, a large Gopher fanbase presence could provide an enormous boost to our players with such a short bench. With that being said, I have compared our resume with some of the other teams competing with us for the 5 seed according to the bracket matrix ( http://bracketmatrix.com/ ) and I think we have a decent chance at a 5, but don't see us any worse than a 6 unless the committee bumps us down one due to Akeem's injury (which I think would be ridiculous).

The reason I think the Gophers have a better resume than a lot of those teams is because of our record vs RPI top 25, top 50 & Top 100. Specifically, look at us compared to the two AAC teams, Cincy & SMU; Cincy - 1-2 vs Top 25, 3-3 vs Top 50 & 7-4 vs Top 100... SMU - 1-1 vs Top 25, 1-3 vs Top 50 & 8-4 vs Top 100. Gophers are 2-1 vs Top 25, 8-7 vs Top 50 & 13-9 vs Top 100. Also, we're better than ISU, Wisconsin, Virginia and Creighton (barely) based on those same criteria. I know there are other criteria that go into the decision, I just wanted to point out that we have a very legitimate chance at a 5 even though we lost today.
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Looks like the committee agreed with my reasoning for the most part... Gophers higher in complete seed list than Cincy, SMU, ISU, Wisconsin & Creighton. Had Virginia 17th overall and us 18th overall.
 

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