Field of 68 Projection (through March 7)

Field of 68 Projection (through Miami win over Syracuse)

(updated with Miami win over Syracuse today) Miami earns lock status. Syracuse remains on the Bubble Board but probably a longshot.

This will serve as the penultimate projection. Final one in the wee hours of Sunday morning.

Tuesday night a couple bubble teams picked up wins over automatic qualifiers. Cal gets a win vs. the field with South Dakota State's Summit League championship, as does Illinois with Northern Kentucky's Horizon League championship.

RPI is noted in parentheses. ALL CAPS bold/italic = already earned automatic bid.

FIELD OF 68 (4 days 'til Selection Sunday)
Automatic Bids/Top Remaining Seed In Conference Tournament (32)
America East: Vermont (48)
American: SMU (18)
ACC: North Carolina (4)
Atlantic Sun: FLORIDA GULF COAST (86)
Atlantic 10: Dayton (21)
Big East: Villanova (1)
Big Sky: North Dakota (172)
Big South: WINTHROP (70)
B1G: Purdue (19)
Big XII: Kansas (2)
Big West: UC Irvine (135)
Colonial: NORTH CAROLINA-WILMINGTON (26)
Conference USA: Middle Tennessee (37)
Horizon: NORTHERN KENTUCKY (89)
Ivy: Princeton (51)
MAAC: IONA (91)
MAC: Akron (59)
MEAC: North Carolina Central (218) -- vs. Bethune-Cookman, 5 (ESPN3)
Missouri Valley: WICHITA STATE (27)
Mountain West: Nevada (36)
Northeast: MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (152)
Ohio Valley: JACKSONVILLE STATE (154)
Pac 12: Oregon (8)
Patriot: Bucknell (65) -- Lehigh, 6:30 (CBSSN)
SEC: Kentucky (7)
Southern: EAST TENNESSEE STATE (57)
Southland: New Orleans (179)
SWAC: Texas Southern (118)
Summit: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (155)
Sun Belt: Texas-Arlington (40)
West Coast: GONZAGA (10)
WAC: Bakersfield (84)

Locks (23)
Louisville (3)
Florida (5)
Baylor (6)
Arizona (9)
Florida State (11)
Butler (12)
Cincinnati (13)
Duke (14) -- vs. Clemson, 1:30 (ESPN)
UCLA (15)
Virginia (16) -- vs. Pitt, 8:30 (ESPN2)
Saint Mary's (17) -- season complete
Minnesota (20)
West Virginia (22)
VCU (23)
Maryland (24)
Notre Dame (25)
Iowa State (28)
Creighton (29)
Arkansas (30)
South Carolina (32)
Wisconsin (38)
Miami (41)
Michigan (46)

(* denotes currently in Field of 68)

Strong Bubblers/In With 1 Win (6)
*Wake Forest (34) -- vs. Virginia Tech, 6 (ESPN2)
*Oklahoma State (35)
*Seton Hall (43)
*Virginia Tech (45) -- vs. Wake Forest, 6 (ESPN2)
*Providence (52)
*Marquette (55)

Just Above, On, Or Below The Bubble (15)
*Illinois State (31) -- season complete
*Xavier (33) -- vs. DePaul, 8:30 (FS1)
*USC (39) -- vs. Washington -- 10:30 (Pac12N)
Rhode Island (42)
*Vanderbilt (44)
*Michigan State (49)
Houston (50)
Georgia (53)
*Northwestern (54)
Cal (56) -- vs. Oregon State, 4:30 (Pac12N)
Illinois (58)
*Kansas State (60)
Ole Miss (69)
Iowa (72)
Syracuse (79) -- season complete
____________________

Last 4 In: Illinois State (31), Xavier (33), Northwestern (54), Kansas State (60)

First 4 Out: Rhode Island (42), Illinois (58), Iowa (72), Syracuse (79)

Others Considered (4): Houston (50), Georgia (53), Cal (56), Ole Miss (69)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (13), Saint Mary's (17), VCU (23), Illinois State (31)

BUBBLE TEAMS WITH WINS OVER AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS
Michigan State (2): Florida Gulf Coast, vs. Wichita State
Cal (1): South Dakota State
Illinois (1): Northern Kentucky
Illinois State (1): Wichita State
Oklahoma State (1): @ Wichita State

GOPHERS PROJECTED SEED, OPPONENT, LOCATION
#5 Gophers vs. #12 Vermont, Orlando

GOPHERS VS. THE PROJECTED FIELD (8-6)
Texas-Arlington (W)
Mount Saint Mary's (W)
Arkansas (W)
@ Florida State (L)
vs. Vanderbilt (W)
Michigan State (L)
@ Purdue (W)
@ Northwestern (W)
@ Michigan State (L)
Wisconsin (L)
Maryland (L)
Michigan (W)
@ Maryland (W)
@ Wisconsin (L)

So if Northwestern loses first Big Tourny game and Iowa wins 2 do you think Iowa is in and NWU is out?

GopherinPhilly said:

So if Northwestern loses first Big Tourny game and Iowa wins 2 do you think Iowa is in and NWU is out?

Click to expand...

That's the nightmare scenario I've thought about for Northwestern, in addition to Illinois (which swept Wildcats) winning a game (Michigan) or two (Michigan/Purdue). Strip away the RPI numbers, I like Iowa's resume better RIGHT NOW than I do Northwestern's, but I can't ignore Northwestern's 35-point rout of the Hawkeyes.

To answer your question (kind of), in that scenario I think Northwestern lands in "last 4 in"/"first 4 out" land. More likely the former, but they'd be sweating.

SelectionSunday said:

That's the nightmare scenario I've thought about for Northwestern, in addition to Illinois (which swept Wildcats) winning a game (Michigan) or two (Michigan/Purdue). Strip away the RPI numbers, I like Iowa's resume better RIGHT NOW than I do Northwestern's, but I can't ignore Northwestern's 35-point rout of the Hawkeyes.

To answer your question (kind of), in that scenario I think Northwestern lands in "last 4 in"/"first 4 out" land. More likely the former, but they'd be sweating.

Click to expand...

NWU has to be sweating not only a lower seed B1G team making a run in the tournament, but also several from other major conferences who could jump them.

And I agree, I don't like NWU's resume compared to many bubble teams including Iowa. Be fun to see how it plays out not being one of the teams on bubble this time.

GopherinPhilly said:

NWU has to be sweating not only a lower seed B1G team making a run in the tournament, but also several from other major conferences who could jump them.

And I agree, I don't like NWU's resume compared to many bubble teams including Iowa. Be fun to see how it plays out not being one of the teams on bubble this time.

Click to expand...

I'm pulling for the Wildcats, but they'd be wise to win their opening game. That probably should do it, without much question.

SelectionSunday said:

I'm pulling for the Wildcats, but they'd be wise to win their opening game. That probably should do it, without much question.

Click to expand...

We differ SS. I am not pulling for the Cats. I would love to see them lose first game and then see how the committee handles the media pressure to put them in when they may not deserve it.

FYI. Downtown DC environment pretty cool for tournament. Lots of welcome signs etc. Not completely sure if the neighborhood knows what's going on though.

Holy Man said:

We differ SS. I am not pulling for the Cats. I would love to see them lose first game and then see how the committee handles the media pressure to put them in when they may not deserve it.

FYI. Downtown DC environment pretty cool for tournament. Lots of welcome signs etc. Not completely sure if the neighborhood knows what's going on though.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the update, Holy Man, keep me posted. Killing me not to be there, but hoping Gophers get shipped to Milwaukee (have 1st/2nd round tickets in hand).

Question for you SS do you base your bracket on what you think the final teams in the bracket will be or on what you think the selection committee will select?

tonestang said:

Question for you SS do you base your bracket on what you think the final teams in the bracket will be or on what you think the selection committee will select?

Click to expand...

I'm trying to think like the committee, try to match their selections.

I think most people do that, but there are several Twitter bracketologists who do theirs based on "most deserves". I think they're mostly one in the same, but there are some differences.

Updated with Miami win over Syracuse

Miami earns lock status. Syracuse (Real Time RPI of #85) remains on the Bubble Board, but the Orangemen now probably a longshot.

RPI is noted in parentheses. ALL CAPS bold/italic = already earned automatic bid.

FIELD OF 68 (4 days 'til Selection Sunday)
Automatic Bids/Top Remaining Seed In Conference Tournament (32)
America East: Vermont (48)
American: SMU (18)
ACC: North Carolina (4)
Atlantic Sun: FLORIDA GULF COAST (86)
Atlantic 10: Dayton (21)
Big East: Villanova (1)
Big Sky: North Dakota (172)
Big South: WINTHROP (70)
B1G: Purdue (19)
Big XII: Kansas (2)
Big West: UC Irvine (135)
Colonial: NORTH CAROLINA-WILMINGTON (26)
Conference USA: Middle Tennessee (37)
Horizon: NORTHERN KENTUCKY (89)
Ivy: Princeton (51)
MAAC: IONA (91)
MAC: Akron (59)
MEAC: North Carolina Central (218) -- vs. Bethune-Cookman, 5 (ESPN3)
Missouri Valley: WICHITA STATE (27)
Mountain West: Nevada (36)
Northeast: MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (152)
Ohio Valley: JACKSONVILLE STATE (154)
Pac 12: Oregon (8)
Patriot: Bucknell (65) -- Lehigh, 6:30 (CBSSN)
SEC: Kentucky (7)
Southern: EAST TENNESSEE STATE (57)
Southland: New Orleans (179)
SWAC: Texas Southern (118)
Summit: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (155)
Sun Belt: Texas-Arlington (40)
West Coast: GONZAGA (10)
WAC: Bakersfield (84)

Locks (23)
Louisville (3)
Florida (5)
Baylor (6)
Arizona (9)
Florida State (11)
Butler (12)
Cincinnati (13)
Duke (14) -- vs. Clemson, 1:30 (ESPN)
UCLA (15)
Virginia (16) -- vs. Pitt, 8:30 (ESPN2)
Saint Mary's (17) -- season complete
Minnesota (20)
West Virginia (22)
VCU (23)
Maryland (24)
Notre Dame (25)
Iowa State (28)
Creighton (29)
Arkansas (30)
South Carolina (32)
Wisconsin (38)
Miami (41)
Michigan (46)

(* denotes currently in Field of 68)

Strong Bubblers/In With 1 Win (6)
*Wake Forest (34) -- vs. Virginia Tech, 6 (ESPN2)
*Oklahoma State (35)
*Seton Hall (43)
*Virginia Tech (45) -- vs. Wake Forest, 6 (ESPN2)
*Providence (52)
*Marquette (55)

Just Above, On, Or Below The Bubble (15)
*Illinois State (31) -- season complete
*Xavier (33) -- vs. DePaul, 8:30 (FS1)
*USC (39) -- vs. Washington -- 10:30 (Pac12N)
Rhode Island (42)
*Vanderbilt (44)
*Michigan State (49)
Houston (50)
Georgia (53)
*Northwestern (54)
Cal (56) -- vs. Oregon State, 4:30 (Pac12N)
Illinois (58)
*Kansas State (60)
Ole Miss (69)
Iowa (72)
Syracuse (79) -- season complete
____________________

Last 4 In: Illinois State (31), Xavier (33), Northwestern (54), Kansas State (60)

First 4 Out: Rhode Island (42), Illinois (58), Iowa (72), Syracuse (79)

Others Considered (4): Houston (50), Georgia (53), Cal (56), Ole Miss (69)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (13), Saint Mary's (17), VCU (23), Illinois State (31)

BUBBLE TEAMS WITH WINS OVER AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS
Michigan State (2): Florida Gulf Coast, vs. Wichita State
Cal (1): South Dakota State
Illinois (1): Northern Kentucky
Illinois State (1): Wichita State
Oklahoma State (1): @ Wichita State

GOPHERS PROJECTED SEED, OPPONENT, LOCATION
#5 Gophers vs. #12 Vermont, Orlando

GOPHERS VS. THE PROJECTED FIELD (8-6)
Texas-Arlington (W)
Mount Saint Mary's (W)
Arkansas (W)
@ Florida State (L)
vs. Vanderbilt (W)
Michigan State (L)
@ Purdue (W)
@ Northwestern (W)
@ Michigan State (L)
Wisconsin (L)
Maryland (L)
Michigan (W)
@ Maryland (W)
@ Wisconsin (L)

The Syracuse Orange will have an issue with that RPI.

I think this is pretty current:


Lowest RPI to get an at-large bid.
• 67 - USC (2011)
• 64 - Marquette (2011)
• 63 - North Carolina State (2005), Stanford (2007)

Outside the Big Six:
• 50 - Air Force (2006)
• 49 - VCU (2011)



An RPI of 84 would be tough to swallow.

If northwestern loses to Rutgers, they should be left out of the tournament. That is a bad bad bad loss.

UpAndUnder43 said:

If northwestern loses to Rutgers, they should be left out of the tournament. That is a bad bad bad loss.

Click to expand...

Easy to say that, but who do you take instead?
Rutgers has an RPI of 159.

Rhode Island lost to 124 LaSalle and 210 Fordham (both at home).
K-State lost to 160 Oklahoma
Bubble team Illinois St lost to 229 Murray St.
Michigan St lost to #140 Northeastern at home
Illinois also lost to Rutgers, so they can't take the spot.
Syracuse lost to 215 Boston College.
Vanderbilt lost to Missouri. #250

California is 4 and 9 against Top 100, without a bad loss, so I guess they'd qualify

37score said:

The Syracuse Orange will have an issue with that RPI.

I think this is pretty current:


Lowest RPI to get an at-large bid.
• 67 - USC (2011)
• 64 - Marquette (2011)
• 63 - North Carolina State (2005), Stanford (2007)

Outside the Big Six:
• 50 - Air Force (2006)
• 49 - VCU (2011)



An RPI of 84 would be tough to swallow.

Click to expand...

Team A

RPI 79
Record 17-14
vs Top 25 2-6
vs Top 50 3-10
vs Top 100 8-13

Losses in 101-150 Range - 0

Best Wins; #2 (neutral), vs #4
Bad Loss(es); @170

Team B

RPI 82
Record 18-14
vs Top 25 3-4
vs Top 50 6-8
vs Top 100 8-9

Losses in 101-150 range - 4

Best Wins; vs 11, vs 15, vs 13
Bad Loss(es); at 213

I think it's obvious Team B is Syracuse... guesses on Team A? Certainly not being discussed as on the bubble....