ESPN's Bennett: Minnesota "likely a team that will have to scrap for a bowl bid."

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bemidjigopher said:
Lol Culture change, there's no excuse for not winning seven games with the talent we have coming back, seven is the floor, you don't fire a coach after one year and a nine win campaign for any situation and comeback satisfied with not making a bowl, the only culture change we need is to get rid of Kaler, what a ****in joke
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Even if we had Claeys back we weren't going to win over 9 games. We won 8 last year and a bowl game and lose a our starting QB, best receivers, best offensive lineman and projected starters at corner
 

Iceland12 said:
7-5 record was officially 2-6. 5 wins were vacated because of sanctions

He replaced Mike Shula who went 4-9, 6-6, 10-2 and finally 6-7 in 2003. Well, officially 0-13 because of sanctions.

No comparison to the situation at Minnesota at all.
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Alabama's two seasons before Saban: 16-9
Minnesota's two seasons before PJ: 15-11

Number of players Alabama lost to the sanctions: 0
Number of players Minnesota lost to school expulsions\suspensions: 5

More talented roster: Alabama

Saban's first regular season: 6-6
Flecks: ?

You're right there is no comparison, Minnesota is in a far worse situation.
 

Urbandale said:
I still don't understand this term "culture change." What specifically will you be pointing at when you can declare that the culture has now changed?
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By culture change, I don't just mean changing culture. I mean connecting people. It takes time to do this.
You can't just implement a culture change in a few weeks.

It's like a titration.
You need a certain amount to change it, and each drop leading up to it might look like it's not happening, until it happens and it's visible to all.
 

If Claeys were still here we'd be looking at 6-6 and a loss to Rutgers.
 




IF Claeys were still here, we would be looking at a 10 - 2 record minimum with a win over OSU in the title game and then a Rose Bowl win vs. USC.
Prove me wrong 37score.
 

GFBfan said:
IF Claeys were still here, we would be looking at a 10 - 2 record minimum with a win over OSU in the title game and then a Rose Bowl win vs. USC.
Prove me wrong 37score.
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Yep you're 100% right. Like we should have been last year or the year before
 




GFBfan said:
IF Claeys were still here, we would be looking at a 10 - 2 record minimum with a win over OSU in the title game and then a Rose Bowl win vs. USC.
Prove me wrong 37score.
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Maybe you're right.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Alabama's two seasons before Saban: 16-9
Minnesota's two seasons before PJ: 15-11

Number of players Alabama lost to the sanctions: 0
Number of players Minnesota lost to school expulsions\suspensions: 5

More talented roster: Alabama

Saban's first regular season: 6-6
Flecks: ?

You're right there is no comparison, Minnesota is in a far worse situation.
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Quit using logic to make your points.
 


swingman said:
When you say culture change, do you mean a change in the culture? Or do you mean bringing people together?

Riley giving Spring opening presser today...he says expect a starting QB to be named later rather than sooner. Armstrong and Fyfe both gone. Beathard gone at Iowa. Lunt gone at Illinois. O'Connor gone at MSU. Houston gone at Wisconsin; Hornibrook returns. Maryland and Oregon State both have said the race for QB is wide open. Zebrowski hired to whisper to Buffalo quarterback. Stockstill, the MTSU QB, underwent surgery yesterday to "clean up some things" in his throwing shoulder. He is coming off broken clavicle surgery in November.
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Spot on. I've brought all these up as well. Iowa is actually losing nearly all it's skilled position players on offense. The leading QB candidate in NEB is that Tulane transfer...as I've said many times, he's basically Mitch except zero ability to run. In fact running is a negative for the guy. Slightly better than .500 passer with a bunch of INTs, and negative yards rushing, so he got sacked a lot.
 



BleedGopher said:
Brian Bennett: I find it unreasonable to expect another nine-win campaign out of the Golden Gophers. This is more likely a team that will have to scrap for a bowl bid.
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Clearly Pro-Fleck


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Sparlimb said:
Quit using logic to make your points.
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Close to half the new HC's in the past several years have posted more wins in their first year than the previous year. It's been posted multiple times and one poster actually took the time to put all the data in a post on a different thread.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Close to half the new HC's in the past several years have posted more wins in their first year than the previous year. It's been posted multiple times and one poster actually took the time to put all the data in a post on a different thread.
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Which completely excludes the perspective of how many wins those teams had the previous year. What would be more relevant would be how many 9 win teams won 9 or more games in the first year of a new coach. How many 8 win teams won 8 or more, and so on. Without that context, that average statistic of % of teams winning more than the previous year is almost useless. Even with that specific of a comparison, there would have to be a large enough sample to be representative of the truth.
To quote Mark Twain: "there are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics".
 

KillerGopherFan said:
Which completely excludes the perspective of how many wins those teams had the previous year. What would be more relevant would be how many 9 win teams won 9 or more games in the first year of a new coach. How many 8 win teams won 8 or more, and so on. Without that context, that average statistic of % of teams winning more than the previous year is almost useless. Even with that specific of a comparison, there would have to be a large enough sample to be representative of the truth.
To quote Mark Twain: "there are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics".
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OK, staying with recent B1G coaches, these did as good or better in their first year.

Meyer, Franklin, Harbaugh, Anderson, Chryst (Pitt and WI)
 

A lot depends on those first couple and the quarterback position.
Terrible QB play early isn't out of the question and would pretty much assure close games against Oregon State and MTSU.

You drop both of those, and struggle to get a bowl game is right.
Drop one, and I expect 5-7 or 6-6
Win both and I think between 6-6 and 10-2 (because who knows what will happen).

I personally expect 6 or 7 games to be won. I won't be that happy about it and I won't be that mad about it.
 

PMWinSTP said:
OK, staying with recent B1G coaches, these did as good or better in their first year.

Meyer, Franklin, Harbaugh, Anderson, Chryst (Pitt and WI)
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Meyer replaced Fickel who had the worst record in recent Ohio St history, Franklin matched the 7 wins of the previous year even, Harbaugh replaced Hoke who also had the 2nd worst record in recent Michigan history, Anderson replaced Bielema's 2nd worst record in his 7 years at Wisconsin, and Chryst matched Anderson's 10 win season.
Of your examples, only one had a 9+ win season, but two were replacing failed coaches and all were at historically dominant programs. That's an apples to oranges comparison and, as I said, not a large enough similar sample to be relevant.
 

PMWinSTP said:
OK, staying with recent B1G coaches, these did as good or better in their first year.

Meyer, Franklin, Harbaugh, Anderson, Chryst (Pitt and WI)
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I know we have gone at each other in the past, but I respect you and feel that you are not trolling like some. I have to say, though, that those coaches you listed are all from programs that far exceed ours. As a program, we are much closer to Purdue and Illinois than OSU, PSU, michigan, and wisconsin (which, I agree, makes what Kill/Claeys did all the more impressive for getting us to the level they did). We are subject to ebbs and flows that they are not and I feel that we were in store for whichever one of those was the 'bad' one for the next couple years regardless of who the coach was. I don't expect a catastrophe, and still think we are Bowl team for the next two years but I don't necessarily see a 6-7 win team in 2017/18 as proof that the coaching change was a mistake. Now, if in 2019/2020 we still can't get over the 6/7 win hump, I will gladly proclaim that we are overpaying for a guy that cannot take us to the next level.

Ultimately, the way I feel is that Claeys was a nice coach but will never be confused as the next Saban/Meyer. This will either work out for our benefit, or we will basically be in the same position as we have been over the last couple years. Let's see what happens. When I say "talk to me in 2019" it's not me 'lowering expectations' but me saying any new coach needs time to prove himself. **** - we fired Tubby after winning an NCAA tournament game - pretty much like a 9 win season...I doubt anybody is too torn up about that now.
 

PMWinSTP said:
OK, staying with recent B1G coaches, these did as good or better in their first year.

Meyer, Franklin, Harbaugh, Anderson, Chryst (Pitt and WI)
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Comparison should be made of decent programs taken over by good, highly coveted coaches:

Herman took Houston from 8-5 to 13-1 in year one.

Fuente took VaTech from 7-6 to 10-4.

Peterson took over 9-4 UWash and went 8-6, then Nat Champ picture in year 3.

Richt took over 8-5 Miami team, went 9-4.

Narduzzi took Pitt from 6-7 to 8-5 year one.
 

KillerGopherFan said:
Meyer replaced Fickel who had the worst record in recent Ohio St history, Franklin matched the 7 wins of the previous year even, Harbaugh replaced Hoke who also had the 2nd worst record in recent Michigan history, Anderson replaced Bielema's 2nd worst record in his 7 years at Wisconsin, and Chryst matched Anderson's 10 win season.
Of your examples, only one had a 9+ win season, but two were replacing failed coaches and all were at historically dominant programs. That's an apples to oranges comparison and, as I said, not a large enough similar sample to be relevant.
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OK, skip Fickel. Meyer had as many or more wins in his first season than Tressel had in his last four,. Harbaugh had more wins in his first year than the last 3 Mich HC's had in their last years.

Your premise that the teams have to have 9+ is a red herring. It does not matter. First year HCs are coaching a team of existing players the previous HC recruited. Speaking of Bert, he had more wins as a new HC at WISC than Barry in his last year. Sumlin did it at Houston and T A&M. Briles did it at Baylor. Miles did it at LSU. Richt did it at Miami. Sarkisian did it at Wash. Helton did it at USC. Narduzzi did it at Pitt.
 

GopherHomer said:
I know we have gone at each other in the past, but I respect you and feel that you are not trolling like some. I have to say, though, that those coaches you listed are all from programs that far exceed ours. As a program, we are much closer to Purdue and Illinois than OSU, PSU, michigan, and wisconsin (which, I agree, makes what Kill/Claeys did all the more impressive for getting us to the level they did). We are subject to ebbs and flows that they are not and I feel that we were in store for whichever one of those was the 'bad' one for the next couple years regardless of who the coach was. I don't expect a catastrophe, and still think we are Bowl team for the next two years but I don't necessarily see a 6-7 win team in 2017/18 as proof that the coaching change was a mistake. Now, if in 2019/2020 we still can't get over the 6/7 win hump, I will gladly proclaim that we are overpaying for a guy that cannot take us to the next level.

Ultimately, the way I feel is that Claeys was a nice coach but will never be confused as the next Saban/Meyer. This will either work out for our benefit, or we will basically be in the same position as we have been over the last couple years. Let's see what happens. When I say "talk to me in 2019" it's not me 'lowering expectations' but me saying any new coach needs time to prove himself. **** - we fired Tubby after winning an NCAA tournament game - pretty much like a 9 win season...I doubt anybody is too torn up about that now.
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I got hammered when I questioned how proven Fleck was before he got hired. Hammered. Total turnaround at WMU, 13-0. So now that Gophs hired him he isn't a proven HC?

Tubby Smith comparison is not a good one. Pitino won more games his first year than Tubby did in his last. Pitino was absolutely unproven and if not for his contract and buy-out, odds are he would have been gone after last season.

http://www.startribune.com/u-regent...buyout-push-for-contract-authority/374073421/
 

PMWinSTP said:
I got hammered when I questioned how proven Fleck was before he got hired. Hammered. Total turnaround at WMU, 13-0. So now that Gophs hired him he isn't a proven HC?

Tubby Smith comparison is not a good one. Pitino won more games his first year than Tubby did in his last. Pitino was absolutely unproven and if not for his contract and buy-out, odds are he would have been gone after last season.

http://www.startribune.com/u-regent...buyout-push-for-contract-authority/374073421/
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So what are your expectations for Fleck? 9 wins in year 1 or he's fired and we bring Claeys back?
 

John Galt said:
So what are your expectations for Fleck? 9 wins in year 1 or he's fired and we bring Claeys back?
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You clearly haven't read my posts. I'll repeat it again and GWG will probably chime in on how I constantly repeat myself. He went 13-1 last year. Coyle brought him in because he is perceived to be a better HC and recruiter compared to Claeys. He now has better players, facilities, staff and resources than at WMU. This is not a rebuild or transformation. My regular season expectations are 8 wins this year, 9-10 in 2018, 10 in 2019 with a chance to run the table. I think he has a very good shot at getting Gophs to the Rose Bowl after 2019 season.

BTW, my first Gopher football game was the 1980 game against Michigan. Do the math.
 

PMWinSTP said:
You clearly haven't read my posts. I'll repeat it again and GWG will probably chime in on how I constantly repeat myself. He went 13-1 last year. Coyle brought him in because he is perceived to be a better HC and recruiter compared to Claeys. He now has better players, facilities, staff and resources than at WMU. This is not a rebuild or transformation. My regular season expectations are 8 wins this year, 9-10 in 2018, 10 in 2019 with a chance to run the table. I think he has a very good shot at getting Gophs to the Rose Bowl after 2019 season.

BTW, my first Gopher football game was the 1980 game against Michigan. Do the math.
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Totally agree. Let's try optimism for a change. This is not a program needing rebuilding. P.S. just so one of those wins comes with an axe attached

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PMWinSTP said:
OK, skip Fickel. Meyer had as many or more wins in his first season than Tressel had in his last four,. Harbaugh had more wins in his first year than the last 3 Mich HC's had in their last years.

Your premise that the teams have to have 9+ is a red herring. It does not matter. First year HCs are coaching a team of existing players the previous HC recruited. Speaking of Bert, he had more wins as a new HC at WISC than Barry in his last year. Sumlin did it at Houston and T A&M. Briles did it at Baylor. Miles did it at LSU. Richt did it at Miami. Sarkisian did it at Wash. Helton did it at USC. Narduzzi did it at Pitt.
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And there's lot of anecdotal evidence of coaches that didn't out perform their predecessors. So what?
How about this, since Lou Holtz, every Gopher head coach has either only matched their predecessors win total or fell short. No new Gopher head coach has exceeded the win total of their predecessor in those years. You'll probably say TC did, but TC had a 2-4 record in 2015 to JK's 4-3 record. Both being responsible for 2015 makes the comparison difficult.
So Gutekunst, Wacker, Mason, Brewster, and Kill all failed to exceed their predecessors win total at Minnesota, which is a much better comparison.
 

KillerGopherFan said:
And there's lot of anecdotal evidence of coaches that didn't out perform their predecessors. So what?
How about this, since Lou Holtz, every Gopher head coach has either only matched their predecessors win total or fell short. No new Gopher head coach has exceeded the win total of their predecessor in those years. You'll probably say TC did, but TC had a 2-4 record in 2015 to JK's 4-3 record. Both being responsible for 2015 makes the comparison difficult.
So Gutekunst, Wacker, Mason, Brewster, and Kill all failed to exceed their predecessors win total at Minnesota, which is a much better comparison.
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I guess if you are thinking more of the same, and feel the need to lower expectations for yourself, then your comparison probably works. That also means Fleck is most likely not going to be very successful and Gophs will have a new coach in 4-5 years.

I feel he has all he needs to be as successful immediately and build on what has been established over the last several years. Coyle did not go after him twice and give the presser speech after hiring him to get more of the same.
 

PMWinSTP said:
I guess if you are thinking more of the same, and feel the need to lower expectations for yourself, then your comparison probably works. That also means Fleck is most likely not going to be very successful and Gophs will have a new coach in 4-5 years.

I feel he has all he needs to be as successful immediately and build on what has been established over the last several years. Coyle did not go after him twice and give the presser speech after hiring him to get more of the same.
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You are trying to project something that no one can possibly predict by relying on one statistical average to theorize how many wins should be expected. I pointed out that was an unreliable statistic to use as a predictor of Fleck's wins next year. Never mind that the average is made of unique circumstances that may have little to do with the circumstances at Minnesota. You like this statical average b/c it fits your narrative of expectations.
I gave you a better comparison, which unfortunately for you, does not fit your narrative, but b/c it actually has historical relevance to Minnesota, it is a much better predictor of expectations for a Gopher coach's first year. It does not mean that Gopher fans should expect more of the same b/c even when circumstances are similar, there are plenty of things to differentiate the situations with. Which is really the point. You can't exclusively use statistics to reliably predict win totals for a 1st year coach, which is exactly what you are trying to do with one simple average over time and a few anecdotal examples.
Others are pointing out the important qualitative factors that have tempered their expectations for Fleck's first year. You just don't want to accept that b/c you're not over TC.
 

37score said:
I think the guy is accurate.

We lose Mitch so starting with a first year QB is tough and the program was in turmoil with a lot of people thinking many players would be transferring out.

If we win 7 games, I'll be extremely happy with PJ Fleck's first year. More important than the wins or lossses is the culture change.
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Ditto that.
 

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