Double Bye

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strictlysaavy

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We control our destiny for the double bye for the Big Ten Tourney. Win out and it is ours.

Don't lose focus now boys!!!

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strictlysaavy said:
We control our destiny for the double bye for the Big Ten Tourney. Win out and it is ours.

Don't lose focus now boys!!!

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We need a loss from MSU- even if we win out. I think MSU will lose two and we are going to get the double bye.
 

bga1 said:
We need a loss from MSU- even if we win out. I think MSU will lose two and we are going to get the double bye.
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MSU plays Wisconsin tomorrow. A loss by either will allow us to pass either of them if we win out.



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If Gophers win out they also guarantee a 9 loss season at worst. Would be pretty incredible.


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scher215 said:
If Gophers win out they also guarantee a 9 loss season at worst. Would be pretty incredible.


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I'd prefer to finish the season with 7 losses. [emoji1]

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strictlysaavy said:
I'd prefer to finish the season with 7 losses.
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That would mean...

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bga1 said:
We need a loss from MSU- even if we win out. I think MSU will lose two and we are going to get the double bye.
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We hold the tiebreaker with Maryland, and they play MSU next week. Regardless of who wins that game, we are top 4 if we win out.


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PitinoFan said:
We hold the tiebreaker with Maryland, and they play MSU next week. Regardless of who wins that game, we are top 4 if we win out.


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Same applies with Wisconsin and us holding the tiebreaker if they lose tom and we will be a game ahead of MSU if they lose

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We could also go 2-1 and secure the double bye if NW finishes no better than 2-1 and Maryland 1-2. Maryland has lost 4 of 6 and is struggling with Iowa on their home court right now.


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What the Gophers now need to guarantee a double bye....

Win against either Nebraska or @Wisconsin.

AND

One Northwestern loss in their final 3 games - @Indiana, Michigan, Purdue


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Remaining schedules for double-byes

Purdue - 12-4 | Indiana, @NW Worst 12-6, Best 14-4. Likely 14-4
Wisc - 11-4 | @MSU, Iowa, Minnesota Worst 11-7, Best 14-4, Guess 13-5

Minnesota - 10-6 | Nebraska, @Wisconsin Worst 10-8, Best 12-6

Maryland - 10-6 | @Rutgers, MSU Worst 10-8, Best 12-6, Guess 11-7
MSU - 9-6 | Wisc, @Ill, @MD , Worst 9-9, Best 12-6, Guess 11-7
Northwestern - 9-6 | @Ind, Mich, Purdue, Worst 9-9, Best 12-6. Guess 10-8
 

PitinoFan said:
What the Gophers now need to guarantee a double bye....

Win against either Nebraska or @Wisconsin.

AND

One Northwestern loss in their final 3 games - @Indiana, Michigan, Purdue


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Not quite. If we only win 1 we are at 11-7. If MD wins their last 2 they are 12-6, MSU beats Wisc. and ILL and are at 11-7(loss to MD), wisconsin beats Iowa and ends 12-6(or better) we would be the 5th seed by MSU beating us 2 times if we only got 1 more win.
 



Tim1406 said:
Not quite. If we only win 1 we are at 11-7. If MD wins their last 2 they are 12-6, MSU beats Wisc. and ILL and are at 11-7(loss to MD), wisconsin beats Iowa and ends 12-6(or better) we would be the 5th seed by MSU beating us 2 times if we only got 1 more win.
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You're right. I still like our chances.


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Northwestern down 10 at half in Bloomington. Good news for the Gophers


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Indiana just went on a 22-0 run against NW to take a 10 point lead at the 1/2.


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A bit of a dilemma today.

Wisconsin vs Michigan State

Who do we want to lose this game?

Remaining schedules after today.

Wisconsin: Iowa, Minnesota

Michigan State: @Illinois, Maryland




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PitinoFan said:
A bit of a dilemma today.

Wisconsin vs Michigan State

Who do we want to lose this game?

Remaining schedules after today.

Wisconsin: Iowa, Minnesota

Michigan State: @Illinois, Maryland




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I was just going to ask the same question about WI @ MSU. I guess we want WI to win to give us a cushion for the double bye?


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Mark in Indy said:
I was just going to ask the same question about WI @ MSU. I guess we want WI to win to give us a cushion for the double bye?


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If you are shooting for double bye, cheer for Wisconsin.

If you want to get first or second in the conference. Cheer for Michigan state.
 

Mark in Indy said:
I was just going to ask the same question about WI @ MSU. I guess we want WI to win to give us a cushion for the double bye?


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Since Big Ten Title is very nearly out of the question, (Purdue would have to lose out, which seems too unlikely to wish for), we need to go with double bye hopes.

In this case, we should want MSU to lose since WI is above us anyway.
 

Some guy said:
If you are shooting for double bye, cheer for Wisconsin.

If you want to get first or second in the conference. Cheer for Michigan state.
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I guess that is where I fall. If we are not going to win the conference, I know it is possible but not probable, I personally would protect the double bye.


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It would make me happy if we finish ahead of Wisconsin, so I must cheer for their complete and utter destruction.
 


Mark in Indy said:
I guess that is where I fall. If we are not going to win the conference, I know it is possible but not probable, I personally would protect the double bye.


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Yeah. I'm just going to watch and let the result determine what I cheer for after today.
 

37score said:
Since Big Ten Title is very nearly out of the question, (Purdue would have to lose out, which seems too unlikely to wish for), we need to go with double bye hopes.

In this case, we should want MSU to lose since WI is above us anyway.
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I think Purdue is more likely than you think.

Indiana has just as much talent as Purdue in my opinion, they just can't put it together. I think Indiana is a tough matchup for Purdue with how much they run and shoot 3s. Similar to Michigan in that way. Plus Indiana really needs it and finally got a win.


Purdue closes at northwestern who is hosting a CBS game that'll be sold out where they will be playing to clinch their first ever NCAA birth. I'd probably pick Purdue to win both. But I think the games are closer to 60/40 games than 80/20 games.
 

Some guy said:
I think Purdue is more likely than you think.

Indiana has just as much talent as Purdue in my opinion, they just can't put it together. I think Indiana is a tough matchup for Purdue with how much they run and shoot 3s. Similar to Michigan in that way. Plus Indiana really needs it and finally got a win.


Purdue closes at northwestern who is hosting a CBS game that'll be sold out where they will be playing to clinch their first ever NCAA birth. I'd probably pick Purdue to win both. But I think the games are closer to 60/40 games than 80/20 games.
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See, that's where you're wrong in thinking it's more likely to happen than I think, because I was kind of in that 60/40 area for each game, but that's still unlikely that Purdue loses both.

40% of 40% is about 16% which is pretty unlikely.
 

Probably the most likely scenario is Maryland beats Rutgers, loses to Michigan State and finishes 5th behind Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan State, in no particular order. Michigan State looks damn good right now.


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A potential complication is this three-way tie scenario. The way they figure out the top team from that could mean we get screwed out of a position, depending who's in the three-way tie with us.

if Michigan State wins today, we're in a three-way tie with them and Maryland. To sort out the tie, you look at the winning percentage of the games between those three teams. Michigan State comes out on top then it comes down to The two-way tiebreaker between us in Maryland which we win.

However, if Maryland beats Michigan State before the end of the season, and we end up in a three-way tie with those teams, we are at the bottom of that three way heap. Maryland would be 2-1, MSU would be 2-1 and we'd be 1-3. Maryland wins the tiebreak due to record, then we lose the tiebreak to MSU due to head to head
 

Those 2 MSU loses are really the only thing hanging over the Gophers season and can cause damage (tiebreakers for BTT seeding - MSU seems to own a lot of the tiebreakers)

If we can eliminate MSU from the equation, I'll take that.

Having said that, if wisconsin loses - I won't lose any sleep
 

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