Jerry Palm has Gophers as a 6 seed after last nights win

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With four games left plus conference tourneys, how accurate can these types of projections actually be?
 


BarnBoy said:
With four games left plus conference tourneys, how accurate can these types of projections actually be?
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Not very. :) The only thing I know is this- win one more and we are in. Win 3 of the last 4- which is what I think we are capable of and we are sitting very nicely. I don't really care who we play in the tournament. Just get there, compete and see what happens.
 






PoockItInfor6 said:
Doesn't help my view of ESPN bias...
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My guess is that he has a computer model doing this thing on a daily basis and may massage it some, but he isn't analyzing every team every day. He probably didn't even look at what the model did to Michigan and Minnesota which is why something that makes no sense ends up available for public consumption. The only ones who care about this are us and Michigan and maybe a handful of others who are at risk of falling onto the dreaded 8-9 line.
 

Jerry Palm actually had us as a 6 seed going into the game as well last night.
 

Holy Man said:
My guess is that he has a computer model doing this thing on a daily basis and may massage it some, but he isn't analyzing every team every day. He probably didn't even look at what the model did to Michigan and Minnesota which is why something that makes no sense ends up available for public consumption. The only ones who care about this are us and Michigan and maybe a handful of others who are at risk of falling onto the dreaded 8-9 line.
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This is probably accurate as it has something to do with their BPI measurement where we lost ground yesterday and Michigan either stayed the same or gained a spot.
 

I want them in Milwaukee or Indy for the 1st/2nd rounds...definite road trips. Memphis would be preferable for the Regional, since it's driving distance from Chicago. Hey, a guy can dream can't he?:cool:
 



WindyCityGopher said:
I want them in Milwaukee or Indy for the 1st/2nd rounds...definite road trips. Memphis would be preferable for the Regional, since it's driving distance from Chicago. Hey, a guy can dream can't he?:cool:
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I have tickets to the Milwaukee site games, so it would really be nice if they were there. If not, then I hope they are put in a Friday/Sunday Region so I can at least watch the games.
 

WindyCityGopher said:
I want them in Milwaukee or Indy for the 1st/2nd rounds...definite road trips. Memphis would be preferable for the Regional, since it's driving distance from Chicago. Hey, a guy can dream can't he?:cool:
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We'll give you Milwaukee if it means we are in the Midwest (Kansas City) regional. Fair?

Although that would require us getting on the 4 or 5 line.
 

Exactly. The reason Lunardi comes so close on seed is because he uses the same criteria the committee does. They factor in who you played and where you played. Playing Indiana and Michigan were must wins because they are both below average teams and they were home. The only way to improve your seed is to beat a really good team and the Big 10 does not have many. Win at UW would count more than any loss in games to come. The win at Purdue is by far the best win and valuable. That 5-17 record against the ACC for the conference hurts. Look at KENPOM for a clear picture of how a team plays and how it is measured against others. None of it really matters now as very little of that bracket will hold and once the tourney starts everyone will have rock fights by round two. Said before the year Gophs would be 10-8 and make it and once there there are only a handful of teams that are overwhelmingly better. UNC is a terrible match up, Duke, Villanova... After that the GOPHERS are very close with UW, Purdue, UVA types. Perhaps UCLA BECAUSE SCORING with them or Oregon is a handful. AFTER 5-6 TEAMS there just is not that much separation.
 

builtbadgers said:
Exactly. The reason Lunardi comes so close on seed is because he uses the same criteria the committee does. They factor in who you played and where you played. Playing Indiana and Michigan were must wins because they are both below average teams and they were home. The only way to improve your seed is to beat a really good team and the Big 10 does not have many. Win at UW would count more than any loss in games to come. The win at Purdue is by far the best win and valuable. That 5-17 record against the ACC for the conference hurts. Look at KENPOM for a clear picture of how a team plays and how it is measured against others. None of it really matters now as very little of that bracket will hold and once the tourney starts everyone will have rock fights by round two. Said before the year Gophs would be 10-8 and make it and once there there are only a handful of teams that are overwhelmingly better. UNC is a terrible match up, Duke, Villanova... After that the GOPHERS are very close with UW, Purdue, UVA types. Perhaps UCLA BECAUSE SCORING with them or Oregon is a handful. AFTER 5-6 TEAMS there just is not that much separation.
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Yeah, the problem with that statement is that I can argue(pretty successfully) that MN has a better resume than any of Luardi's 7 seeds right now. In order to move up to a 6 line we'd need some teams to falter and a big win over either Maryland or Wisc. on the road.
 

builtbadgers said:
Exactly. The reason Lunardi comes so close on seed is because he uses the same criteria the committee does. They factor in who you played and where you played. Playing Indiana and Michigan were must wins because they are both below average teams and they were home.
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What criteria does the committee use then? If the Gophers really are an 8 seed - I'm assuming you are throwing out RPI... so are you looking at KenPom or BPI? If so, Michigan is 24th in BPI and 27th in KenPom, so I'm not sure how you call them "below average", and act as if the win means nothing. BTW, Michigan moved UP in Lunardi's bracket after losing to us, so how do you explain that?

My point is, you have to make up your mind. The Gophers are good in the criteria Michigan is bad in, and vice versa. So you can't say the Gophers resume isn't solid based on what the committee will do, but then argue the Michigan win means nothing
 

mnsportsgeek said:
We'll give you Milwaukee if it means we are in the Midwest (Kansas City) regional. Fair?

Although that would require us getting on the 4 or 5 line.
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Turns out that KC is actually a shorter drive for me than Memphis (who knew?), so I'll happily give you KC too!
 

BarnBoy said:
With four games left plus conference tourneys, how accurate can these types of projections actually be?
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The seeding is accurate for right now, and baring a total tank job, we'll be 5-8 seed regardless of the last few games.

The who we play is a total crap shoot. We probably have a one in 30 chance of playing any team mentioned as a first round opponent.
 


37score said:
Lunardi is notoriously lazy. I swear he only changes his favorite teams and the other teams slide accordingly.
His update I'm sure didn't include last nights game because it's not an ACC game.
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Interesting take on Lunardi, never really hear him speak about his "favorite teams", like plugging his alma mater and their players, like Katz rountinely does. Or watching Medcalf search for anything he can to slight the Gophers.

I'll have to pay closer attention.
 

The analysis measures how you play against whom with a emphasis on efficiency. this model has a history of who does well in the tourney.
 


MaroonGold1 said:
What criteria does the committee use then? If the Gophers really are an 8 seed - I'm assuming you are throwing out RPI... so are you looking at KenPom or BPI? If so, Michigan is 24th in BPI and 27th in KenPom, so I'm not sure how you call them "below average", and act as if the win means nothing. BTW, Michigan moved UP in Lunardi's bracket after losing to us, so how do you explain that?

My point is, you have to make up your mind. The Gophers are good in the criteria Michigan is bad in, and vice versa. So you can't say the Gophers resume isn't solid based on what the committee will do, but then argue the Michigan win means nothing
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His prior update was 2/16. Michigan played 2 games since then. A win over wisconsin and a OT loss to the Gophers. Apparently the wisconsin victory and good showing in the OT loss was enough for him to warrant them moving up.
 


pharmacygopher said:
His prior update was 2/16. Michigan played 2 games since then. A win over wisconsin and a OT loss to the Gophers. Apparently the wisconsin victory and good showing in the OT loss was enough for him to warrant them moving up.
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I don't doubt that Mi should be moved up.

The bigger issue is MN moving down after 2 wins. The problems come in when you start ranking teams using things like most recent games. The committee stopped using that metric a little while ago. At the end of the day close win or not(2 this past week) we will only be known for winning against both these teams this week and not how we did it.

In other words Iowa st and Oklahoma st have resumes that just don't compare to MN yet but because of a recency bias they jump us.
 

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