Field of 68 Projection (through Feb. 12)

B1G with 7 teams in the field this week, but 2 of those are among the last 4 in. An * denotes conference leader or, in the event of a tie, best RPI.

FIELD OF 68 (4 weeks from Selection Sunday)
America East (1): Vermont (51)

American (2): Cincinnati (15), *SMU (18)

ACC (9): Louisville (4), *North Carolina (8), Florida State (11), Virginia (14), Duke (16), Notre Dame (26), Wake Forest (31), Virginia Tech (39), Miami (52)

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (89)

Atlantic 10 (2): *VCU (27) Dayton (28)

Big East (6): *Villanova (2), Butler (12), Xavier (13), Creighton (17), Seton Hall (49), Providence (68)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (178)

Big South (1): North Carolina-Asheville (69)

B1G (7): Purdue (19), Maryland (22), *Wisconsin (23), Minnesota (24), Northwestern (33), Michigan State (41), Michigan (61)

Big XII (7): Baylor (1), *Kansas (3), Oklahoma State (29), West Virginia (30), TCU (36), Kansas State (42), Iowa State (55)

Big West (1): UC-Davis (196)

Colonial (1): North Carolina-Wilmington (45)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (38)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (75)

Ivy (1): Princeton (71)

Metro Atlantic (1): Monmouth (50)

MAC (1): Akron (37)

MEAC (1): NCCU (195)

Missouri Valley (2): *Illinois State (34), Wichita State (48)

Mountain West (1): Boise State (60)

Northeast (1): Mount Saint Mary's (169)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (64)

Pac 12 (5): *Arizona (6), Oregon (7), UCLA (25), USC (32), Cal (35)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (85)

SEC (4): *Kentucky (9), Florida (10), South Carolina (21), Arkansas (44)

Southern (1): Furman (88)

Southland (1): New Orleans (168)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (110)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (91)

Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State (76)

West Coast (2): *Gonzaga (5), Saint Mary's (20)

WAC (1): Bakersfield (96)


Last 4 In: Wake Forest (31), Michigan State (41), Michigan (61), Providence (68)

First 4 Out: Rhode Island (40), Texas-Arlington (43), Georgetown (62), Syracuse (72)

Others Considered (7): Nevada (46), Tennessee (47), Georgia (53), Houston (58), Ole Miss (59), Ohio State (63), Penn State (67)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (4): Cincinnati (15), Saint Mary's (20), Dayton (28), Wichita State (48)

New to the Field (6): Arkansas, Bakersfield, Boise State, Michigan, Providence, Wake Forest

Gophers vs. the Projected Field (5-5): beat Mount Saint Mary's, beat Arkansas, lost to Florida State, beat Arkansas State, lost to Michigan State, beat Purdue, beat Northwestern, lost to Michigan State, lost to Wisconsin, lost to Maryland

Worst 4 RPI & KenPom at-larges in current Field of 68

Worst 4 RPI at-larges in my current field: Miami (52), Iowa State (55), Michigan (61), Providence (68).

Worst 4 KenPom at-larges in my current field: Seton Hall (55), Arkansas (57), USC (58), Providence (60).

SelectionSunday said:

Worst 4 RPI at-larges in my current field: Miami (52), Iowa State (55), Michigan (61), Providence (68).

Worst 4 KenPom at-larges in my current field: Seton Hall (55), Arkansas (57), USC (58), Providence (60).

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Count me shocked that Arkansas and Seton Hall are still in the mix. It seems like every time I see the crawl, they have lost to someone like Missouri or St. John's. Has to be a pretty weak year.

Arkansas, Seton Hall, Saint John's

Holy Man said:

Count me shocked that Arkansas and Seton Hall are still in the mix. It seems like every time I see the crawl, they have lost to someone like Missouri or St. John's. Has to be a pretty weak year.

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I really, really, really don't want to take Arkansas, not impressed at all watching them, but their resume is better than a lot of bubble teams. I think the Hogs will play their way out.

Seton Hall definitely a bubble team, but resume isn't bad, relatively speaking. Wins over Cal and South Carolina in the non-conference are carrying the Pirates. Big 3-game homestand coming up (Creighton Villanova, Xavier), win 2 of those 3 and they'll be in pretty solid shape.

Saint John's has improved a lot. Though not in the top 100, Johnnies have done well enough to make that a decent win for the Gophers. Their schedule is brutal down the stretch, however.

Nevada is currently out. Where's ruppert?

This is what my bracket looked like this morning:

East Regional(New York, NY)

1. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
16. UNC CENTRAL(MEAC)/MT. SAINT MARY'S(NEC)
-Key Bank Center(Buffalo, NY)
8. VCU(A-10)
9. Oklahoma State

5. Notre Dame
12. AKRON(MAC)
-Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
4. UCLA
13. VALPARAISO(HORIZON)

6. SMU(AAC)
11. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE(C-USA)
-BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
3. KENTUCKY(SEC)
14. NORTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

7. St. Mary's
10. Michigan
-Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
2. Florida State
15. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT LEAGUE)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. KANSAS(BIG 12)
16. NEW ORLEANS(SOUTHLAND)
-BOK CENTER(Tulsa, OK)
8. Minnesota
9. California

5. Creighton
12. UNC-WILMINTON(CAA)
-Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
4. Duke
13. BOISE STATE(MTN. WEST)

6. WISCONSIN(B1G)
11. ILLINOIS STATE(MVC)
-Golden 1 Center(Sacramento, CA)
3. ARIZONA(PAC 12)
14. PRINCETON(IVY)

7. Xavier
10. Kansas State
-Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. Louisville
15. FURMAN(SO. CONF)

South Regional(Memphis, TN)

1. Baylor
16. WEBER ST(BIG SKY)/UC-DAVIS(BIG WEST)
-BOK CENTER(Tulsa, OK)
8. Dayton
9. Michigan State

5. Cincinnati
12. Wichita State/Wake Forest
-Bradley Center(Milwaukee, WI)
4. Butler
13. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

6. Maryland
11. Syracuse
-Amway Center(Orlando, FL)
3. Florida
14. ARKANSAS STATE(SUN BELT)

7. USC
10. Iowa State
-BSW Arena(Greenville, SC)
2. NORTH CAROLINA(ACC)
15. FGCU(A-SUN)

West Regional(San Jose, CA)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN(SWAC)
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
8. Virginia Tech
9. TCU

5. Purdue
12. MONMOUTH(MAAC)
-Bankers Life Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
4. Virginia
13. BELMONT(OVC)

6. South Carolina
11. Arkansas/Georgia Tech
-Key Bank Center(Buffalo, NY)
3. West Virginia
14. UNC-ASHEVILLE(BIG SOUTH)

7. Northwestern
10. Miami
-Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
2. Oregon
15. CSU BAKERSFIELD(WAC)

Top 16 "Seed" Curve: Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Louisville, Oregon, Florida State, Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, UCLA, Duke, Butler.
Last 4 BYES: Miami, Iowa State, Kansas State, Syracuse
Last 4 IN: Wichita State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
First 4 OUT: Tennessee, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Nevada
Next 4 OUT: UT-Arlington, Georgetown, Clemson, Providence

Looks like we currently differ on 2. You have Georgia Tech & Syracuse, I have Providence & Seton Hall.

Love seeing the Gophers in the Midwest Regional. Hope you're right there. Tickets to Kansas City.

SelectionSunday said:

Looks like we currently differ on 2. You have Georgia Tech & Syracuse, I have Providence & Seton Hall.

Love seeing the Gophers in the Midwest Regional. Hope you're right there. Tickets to Kansas City.

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Yeah based on the top 16 reveal the committee seems to hold the ACC in high regard. With good reason, it's a very deep conference. I think they'll get the benefit of the doubt, but could be wrong.

Gophers7633 said:

Yeah based on the top 16 reveal the committee seems to hold the ACC in high regard. With good reason, it's a very deep conference. I think they'll get the benefit of the doubt, but could be wrong.

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No question the ACC is loaded. Have a hard time seeing them getting 11, though. Everything would have to go just right. Pure mathematics says as least a couple of the bubble teams are going to fade, lose several games down the stretch.

Texas Tech gets a big win over Baylor. At best still in that "next four out" group but definitely closer to the conversation.


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Gopher07 said:

Texas Tech gets a big win over Baylor. At best still in that "next four out" group but definitely closer to the conversation.


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I still think they need to finish 4-1 their remaining 5 games to give themselves a shot for an at-large bid. Having played just about the worst Non Conf. SOS in the country(336) is going to greatly diminish their chances. The only thing that might save them is their analytics measure out to an NCAA Tournament team. 34 in KenPom, 36 in Sagarin, 35 in BPI.

Gopher07 said:

Texas Tech gets a big win over Baylor. At best still in that "next four out" group but definitely closer to the conversation.


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It's too bad that they couldn't finish against Kansas(?) this past weekend. They've been looking pretty good against top teams.