Remaining Schedules of B1G's Non-Lock Potential At-Large Teams

For now we're calling Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin locks.

Here are the remaining schedules of the 6 teams most in contention for at-large bids, in order of most difficult to least difficult schedule remaining based on conference winning percentage.

To me the thing that most stands out, other than the Gophers having the easiest slate remaining? If Northwestern loses its next two games to Wisconsin and Maryland, just like that the Wildcats will be 7-6 with a 4-game losing streak and a resume that starts to get exposed, with an 0-2 record vs. the B1G big boys (Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin). There would be a TON of pressure on the Wildcats not to spit up their home game vs. Rutgers in Game 14.

1. Ohio State (5-7, 3 home, 3 road)
Opponents Record/Winning Percentage: 37-29, .561
@ Maryland (8-3)
@ Michigan State (6-5)
Nebraska (4-7)
Wisconsin (9-1)
@ Penn State (5-7)
Indiana (5-6)

2. Indiana (5-6, 3 home, 4 road)
Opponents Record/Winning Percentage: 44-35, .557
Purdue (8-3)
Michigan (5-6)
@ Minnesota (5-6)
@ Iowa (6-6)
Northwestern (7-4)
@ Purdue (8-3)
@ Ohio State (5-7)

3. Michigan State (6-5, 4 home, 3 road)
Opponents Record/Winning Percentage: 44-35, .557
Iowa (6-6)
Ohio State (5-7)
@ Purdue (8-3)
Nebraska (4-7)
Wisconsin (9-1)
@ Illinois (4-8)
@ Maryland (8-3)

4. Northwestern (7-4, 4 home, 3 road)
Opponents Record/Winning Percentage: 41-37, .526
@ Wisconsin (9-1)
Maryland (8-3)
Rutgers (2-10)
@ Illinois (4-8)
@ Indiana (5-6)
Michigan (5-6)
Purdue (8-3)

5. Michigan (5-6, 2 home, 5 away)
Opponents Record/Winning Percentage: 40-37, .519
@ Indiana (5-6)
Wisconsin (9-1)
@ Minnesota (5-6)
@ Rutgers (2-10)
Purdue (8-3)
@ Northwestern (7-4)
@ Nebraska (4-7)

6. Minnesota (5-6, 4 home, 3 road)
Opponents Record/Winning Percentage: 38-40, .487
@ Rutgers (2-10)
Indiana (5-6)
Michigan (5-6)
@ Maryland (8-3)
Penn State (5-7)
Nebraska (4-7)
@ Wisconsin (9-1)

By my estimation, the B1G teams with the 5 best resumes right now: (1) Maryland/Purdue (tie), (3) Wisconsin, (4) Gophers, and (5) Michigan State.

How many big teams do you envision making it?

Winasota Gopher said:

How many big teams do you envision making it?

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6 or 7.

8 possible, but would be a stretch.

Wow thank you for putting this together - I had been sorting through screens on ESPN app trying to size it up. I sure hope we can make a push to get up to the 6 or 5 (super outside chance at 4) spot in B10, we should have our fair share of openings if we can execute. All starts on Saturday, gotta take care of business / not play down to their level (no disrespect to Rutgers - they've made some strides).

Holf said:

I sure hope we can make a push to get up to the 6 or 5 (super outside chance at 4) spot in B10, we should have our fair share of openings if we can execute.

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The #4 seed is closer than it looks, albeit for a lot of other teams, as well. If the Gophers win this weekend to get to 6-6, there's a very real chance they'll only be a game out of the #4 seed. Assuming Northwestern loses @ Wisconsin, Wildcats would be 7-5, as would Michigan State if it beats Iowa. Gophers would win a head-to-head tiebreaker with Northwestern, but we'd need Sparty to falter down the stretch (very possible) because obviously they'd have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

SelectionSunday said:

6 or 7.

8 possible, but would be a stretch.

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I'm starting to wonder if it will only be 6. Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, and especially Ohio State don't have much room for error. Three more regular season losses might do them in unless they make a serious run in the BT tourney.

bizzle22 said:

I'm starting to wonder if it will only be 6. Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, and especially Ohio State don't have much room for error. Three more regular season losses might do them in unless they make a serious run in the BT tourney.

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Northwestern is 7-4 (B1G) and isn't out of the woods yet, either, especially if Lindsey remains out. Not an easy schedule remaining includes @ Wisconsin and home vs. Purdue and Maryland. Wildcats probably need to get to 11-7 to feel comfortable heading to Washington D.C.

NW better figure out how to win a big game. they need a win vs the 3 top teams. I have a feeling they are in trouble and will be firmly on the bubble come tourney time.

SelectionSunday said:

Northwestern is 7-4 (B1G) isn't out of the woods yet, either, especially if Lindsey remains out. Not an easy schedule remaining includes @ Wisconsin and home vs. Purdue and Maryland. Wildcats might need to get to 11-7 to feel comfortable heading to Washington D.C.

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It's crazy looking at where Northwestern was a week or so ago and now seeing that, with their difficult schedule, they could firmly be on the bubble to off it rather quickly. But, that is the beauty of college basketball.

SS,

Thanks for doing the legwork here.

If the Gophers beat Rutgers tomorrow and hold serve at home for the remaining schedule, they are going to the dance. Much easier said than done. i think the next 3 games will be very telling. Rutgers has shown that they are no cake walk despite their record and Michigan and Indiana are playing for their lives. They cannot afford to lose 2 of these 3 very winnable games. If they can find a way to win these 3 they would be on a 5 game winning streak and have lots of momentum.

The RPI for the 5 teams that SS has highlighted look like this:

OSU:63
IU:76
MSU:49
NW:43
MICH:75
MN:21

That really helps Minnesota's cause even though the selection committee may or may not admit that it factors into their decision making.

e.bigelow said:

It's crazy looking at where Northwestern was a week or so ago and now seeing that, with their difficult schedule, they could firmly be on the bubble to off it rather quickly. But, that is the beauty of college basketball.

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Before the national media started singing the praises of the Cats, they should have actually looked at their schedule. It was soft at the beginning and harsh at the end, the exact opposite of us. It's the peril of these bloody unbalanced schedules. Cats control their own destiny, and I empathize with them in having one of their best players out, but they are not a lock by any means and I would bet a lot they won't be 11-7 at tournament time. Maybe 10-8.