Field of 68 Projection (through Feb. 5)

FIELD OF 68 (through Feb. 5) – RPI rank in parentheses
America East (1): Vermont (62)

American (2): *Cincinnati (15), SMU (25)

ACC (8): Louisville (3), *North Carolina (4), Florida State (6), Virginia (14), Duke (19), Notre Dame (28), Virginia Tech (44), Syracuse (72)

Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast (81)

Atlantic 10 (3): VCU (30), *Dayton (32), Rhode Island (38)

Big East (6): *Villanova (2), Xavier (9), Butler (13), Creighton (16), Seton Hall (37), Marquette (65)

Big Sky (1): Weber State (169)

Big South (1): North Carolina-Asheville (80)

B1G (7): Wisconsin (17), Maryland (21), Purdue (22), Minnesota (24), Northwestern (33), Michigan State (48), Indiana (73)

Big XII (7): Baylor (1), *Kansas (5), Oklahoma State (29), West Virginia (34), Kansas State (39), Iowa State (40), TCU (42)

Big West (1): UC Davis (191)

Colonial (1): North Carolina-Wilmington (46)

Conference USA (1): Middle Tennessee (47)

Horizon (1): Valparaiso (64)

Ivy (1): Princeton (74)

Metro Atlantic (1): Monmouth (50)

MAC (1): Akron (49)

MEAC (1): NCCU (195)

Missouri Valley (2): *Illinois State (31), Wichita State (52)

Mountain West (1): Boise State (59)

Northeast (1): Mount Saint Mary’s (186)

Ohio Valley (1): Belmont (67)

Pac 12 (5): *Oregon (10), Arizona (11), UCLA (23), USC (26), Cal (43)

Patriot (1): Bucknell (92)

SEC (4): Kentucky (7), Florida (12), *South Carolina (18), Tennessee (35)

Southern (1): Furman (111)

Southland (1): Sam Houston State (128)

SWAC (1): Texas Southern (115)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (108)

Sun Belt (1): Arkansas State (76)

West Coast (2): *Gonzaga (8), Saint Mary’s (20)

WAC (1): New Mexico State (53)


Last 4 In: Seton Hall (37), Rhode Island (38), Cal (43), Syracuse (72)

First 4 Out: Wake Forest (27), Arkansas (36), Clemson (45), Georgia Tech (75)

Others Considered (8): Nevada (41), College of Charleston (51), Georgia (54), Miami (55), Texas-Arlington (56), Ohio State (68), Providence (69), Michigan (79)

Non-Power 6 At-Larges (5): Saint Mary’s (20), SMU (25), VCU (30), Rhode Island (38), Wichita State (52)

New to the Field (8): Seton Hall (37), Rhode Island (38), Kansas State (39), Boise State (59), Syracuse (72), Furman (111), UC Davis (191), NCCU (195)

Gophers vs. the Projected Field (4-5): beat Mount Saint Mary’s, lost to Florida State, beat Arkansas State, lost to Michigan State, beat Purdue, beat Northwestern, lost to Michigan State, lost to Wisconsin, lost to Maryland

Gophers Projected NCAA Matchup: vs. Middle Tennessee (Conference USA champ)

Indiana is in? Wow, what a weak year for bubble teams

Love what you put together SS, thanks for doing these. Hypothetically, what seed would we be? A 7 seed I'd guess?

Gophers Resume vs. Resume of My "Last Team In" (Syracuse)

Gophers
Record: 16-7, 4-6 B1G
RPI: 24
KenPom: 37
Overall SOS: 12
Non-Conference SOS: 23
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-7
Best 3 Wins: @ Purdue (22), @ Northwestern (33), Arkansas (36)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): none
True Road Record: 3-4
Road Wins vs. RPI Top 68 (2): Purdue, Northwestern
Wins vs. Automatic Qualifiers (2): Arkansas State (76), Mount Saint Mary's (186)
Record vs. Projected Field of 68: 4-5

Syracuse (currently last team in)
Record: 15-9, 7-4 ACC
RPI: 72
KenPom: 47
Overall SOS: 45
Non-Conference SOS: 154
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
Best 3 Wins: Florida State (6), Virginia (14), Wake Forest (27)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+) 3: Saint John's (124), vs. UConn (134), @ Boston College (187)
True Road Record: 1-5
Road Wins vs. RPI Top 68: none
Wins vs. Automatic Qualifiers (1): Monmouth (50)
Record vs. Projected Field of 68: 3-5

JimmyJamesMD said:

Indiana is in? Wow, what a weak year for bubble teams

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I have a hard time keeping Hoosiers in, but their resume fits in with what is definitely a weak bubble. There's a lot of stink out there, which is good news for the resume the Gophers have already built. Gophers just need to tack on wins and not screw it up.

SelectionSunday said:

I have a hard time keeping Hoosiers in, but their resume fits in with what is definitely a weak bubble. There's a lot of stink out there, whcih is good news for the resume the Gophers have already built. Gophers just need to tack on wins and not screw it up.

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At his point, does 9-9 make us lock?

SelectionSunday said:

Gophers
Record: 16-7, 4-6 B1G
RPI: 24
KenPom: 37
Overall SOS: 12
Non-Conference SOS: 23
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-7
Best 3 Wins: @ Purdue (22), @ Northwestern (33), Arkansas (36)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): none
True Road Record: 3-4
Road Wins vs. RPI Top 68 (2): Purdue, Northwestern
Wins vs. Automatic Qualifiers (2): Arkansas State (76), Mount Saint Mary's (186)
Record vs. Projected Field of 68: 4-5

Syracuse (currently last team in)
Record: 15-9, 7-4 ACC
RPI: 72
KenPom: 47
Overall SOS: 45
Non-Conference SOS: 154
Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-3
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
Best 3 Wins: Florida State (6), Virginia (14), Wake Forest (27)
Bad Losses (RPI 101+) 3: Saint John's (124), vs. UConn (134), @ Boston College (187)
True Road Record: 1-5
Road Wins vs. RPI Top 68: none
Wins vs. Automatic Qualifiers (1): Monmouth (50)
Record vs. Projected Field of 68: 3-5

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So SS, what sets us a part from Syracuse is the solid road wins and record, no bad losses, and better non-conf SOS?

e.bigelow said:

Love what you put together SS, thanks for doing these. Hypothetically, what seed would we be? A 7 seed I'd guess?

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7 sounds about right, though I'd probably go 8 because of the recent 5-game skid.

JimmyJamesMD said:

At his point, does 9-9 make us lock?

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Prior to the B1G season I said 10 for complete & utter "lock" status heading to Washington D.C., and I'll stick with that. But with the way the bubble is projecting right now, I'd feel pretty darn comfortable with 9-9. That'd likely leave Gophers with a bunch of top-100 wins (12?), though my concern is they're not likely to add another top-50 win unless they beat Maryland or Wisconsin on the road.

But, they look at a lot of metrics/rankings (i.e. Ken Pom), so not too worried about that. As long as Purdue and Northwestern keep doing what they're doing, those 2 road wins are GARGANTUAN, especially Purdue. It may seem counter-intuitive to cheer against Northwestern, but we want the Wildcats to keep kicking a*s. If Wildcats finish 11-7 or better, that'd be just fine.

JimmyJamesMD said:

So SS, what sets us a part from Syracuse is the solid road wins and record, no bad losses, and better non-conf SOS?

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All of the above, but mostly performance on the road. Syracuse has done very little work away from the Carrierdome.

SelectionSunday said:

Prior to the B1G season I said 10 for complete & utter "lock" status heading to Washington D.C., and I'll stick with that. But with the way the bubble is projecting right now, I'd feel pretty darn comfortable with 9-9. That'd likely leave Gophers with a bunch of top-100 wins (12?), though my concern is they're not likely to add another top-50 win unless they beat Maryland or Wisconsin on the road.

But, they look at a lot of metrics/rankings (i.e. Ken Pom), so not too worried about that. As long as Purdue and Northwestern keep doing what they're doing, those 2 road wins are GARGANTUAN, especially Purdue. It may seem counter-intuitive to cheer against Northwestern, but we want the Wildcats to keep kicking a*s. If Wildcats finish 11-7 or better, that'd be just fine.

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Thanks SS. Having you as a resource is such a great thing for the Gopherhole. All of your hard work is really appreciated. I know you're always modest about it, but its pretty sweet to have our own Lundardi that quickly answers questions; with no question being taken as a stupid one. Thanks again!

JimmyJamesMD said:

Thanks SS. Having you as a resource is such a great thing for the Gopherhole. All of your hard work is really appreciated. I know you're always modest about it, but its pretty sweet to have our own Lundardi that quickly answers questions; with no question being taken as a stupid one. Thanks again!

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Thanks, enjoy doing it. Hoping we have a relaxing Selection Sunday. That starts with 2 wins this week, but both games scare me. Iowa playing well, and Rutgers nowhere near as awful as last year.

SelectionSunday said:

Thanks, enjoy doing it. Hoping we have a relaxing Selection Sunday. That starts with 2 wins this week, but both games scare me. Iowa playing well, and Rutgers nowhere near as awful as last year.

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Neither are we!

I agree though, would be big to get both and to show we've "righted the ship" we need both.

Go Gophers!!

SelectionSunday said:

Thanks, enjoy doing it. Hoping we have a relaxing Selection Sunday. That starts with 2 wins this week, but both games scare me. Iowa playing well, and Rutgers nowhere near as awful as last year.

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Just gotta keep learning how to win the close ones. We're still a ranked team if we didn't continuously shoot ourselves in the foot in the second half of the games we lost. The only game we were outclassed was @MSU. I think that provides a lot of optimism.

Luanrdi's lastest projection this morning

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi and I currently differ on 4 teams.

He has Arkansas, Clemson, Miami, and Wake Forest in the field, in their place I have Cal, Rhode Island, Syracuse, and Tennessee.

Last 4 In
Lunardi: Clemson, Illinois State (he has at-large, I have as automatic qualifier), Indiana, Seton Hall
SS: Cal, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Syracuse

First 4 Out
Lunardi: Cal, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island, Tennessee
SS: Arkansas, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest

BleedGopher said:

Neither are we!

I agree though, would be big to get both and to show we've "righted the ship" we need both.

Go Gophers!!

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Touche, Bleed!

Just a quick question for you Seletcion Sunday.. what's the worst record team that's ever made the tourney.. most likely a team in a auto bid conference that had bad regular season but won the conference tourney

Skiumah77 said:

Just a quick question for you Seletcion Sunday.. what's the worst record team that's ever made the tourney.. most likely a team in a auto bid conference that had bad regular season but won the conference tourney

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Don't know off hand. There's been quite a few well-below .500 records in the tournament.

Jim Harrick had a Georgia team that sticks out in my mind....below .500 in league play and a gaudy RPI. 2002?


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Not really confident in Northwestern. First half of their Big Ten schedule was extremely weak and I'll think they'll get exposed a bit during the back half.

Skiumah77 said:

Just a quick question for you Seletcion Sunday.. what's the worst record team that's ever made the tourney.. most likely a team in a auto bid conference that had bad regular season but won the conference tourney

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Worst record to get an ALB: 18-14 .563 (Arizona - 2008, Michigan St - 2011)


Below is a paste from another site regarding non-at large bids.

8. 1995 Florida International, 11-17

The Golden Panthers had one of the worst winning percentages ever for an NCAA tournament team, but entered the Atlantic Sun tournament on something of a roll. FIU started 5-17 before rolling off wins in three of its final four regular season games. Adding in the three wins in the conference tournament, that was a 6-1 record heading into the inevitable first-round blowout to eventual champs UCLA.
7. 1997 Fairfield, 11-17

The Stags lost a lot of games in 1997 but weren't embarrassed in any, outside of getting doubled up at Canisius (91-45). Fairfield lost by two to Boston College and 10 to Connecticut during the season. So when the No. 16 seed led top-seeded North Carolina by seven points at halftime, it wasn't as much of a stunner as its record would suggest.

6. 2013 Liberty, 15-20

The Flames entered the Big South tournament with an 11-20 record and an RPI of 299 before catching fire to advance to the tournament. The good news for Liberty? Since 2001, teams that entered the NCAAs with a losing record are 5-1 in opening-round games.

5. 2008 Coppin State, 16-20

Coppin State started the year 2-19 against Division I competition, then managed to rattle of 12 wins in its last 13 games before falling in an opening round game to Mount St. Mary's.

4. 1999 Florida A&M, 12-17

The Rattlers started 0-10 in the 1999 season, then capped the year by losing to Duke by 41 points.

3. 2008 Mississippi Valley State, 17-16

Don't let the winning record deceive you. The Delta Devils had three wins over non-DI opponent and just one victory over a team with a Pomeroy rating better than 300. Their No. 323 ranking in the Pomeroy metrics are the lowest on record for a tournament team. Once in the NCAAs, Mississippi Valley State scored 29 points in a blowout loss to UCLA. Great mascot though.

2. 1998 Prairie View A&M, 13-17

The Texas school was in the midst of a nine-year losing streak in football (it finally ended later that year) and its basketball season appeared to be more of the same woe. In a span of 12 days in December, the team lost four games by a combined 145 points. Then the Panthers went on an unlikely run in the SWAC tournament, winning the title after making up a 20-point halftime deficit in the final. That led to a 58-point loss to mighty Kansas in the first round of the tournament. Amazingly, it was Prairie View's second 110-52 loss of the season.

1. 1996 Central Florida, 10-18

The Knights had seven wins entering the 1996 Atlantic Sun tournament. Among their 18 losses -- blowout defeats to Davidson by 39 points, Georgia by 49 points and College of Charleston by a whopping 52. So their 22-point defeat to No. 1 UMass in the tournament should be considered a moral victory.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/03/19/worst-teams-ncaa-tournament-history/2000493/

sal said:

Jim Harrick had a Georgia team that sticks out in my mind....below .500 in league play and a gaudy RPI. 2002?


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I remember that team well (2000-01 season). #27 RPI with 16-14 record and deserved their at-large bid (even though Bulldogs lost first game). Most hellacious non-conference schedule I've ever seen in terms of the RPIs of the opponents. Gophers handed Bulldogs one of those 14 regular-season losses.

sal said:

Jim Harrick had a Georgia team that sticks out in my mind....below .500 in league play and a gaudy RPI. 2002?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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There was an ACC team that made it with a 6-10 conference record one time. I want to say FSU. They'd lost twice each to Duke, UNC and Maryland (I think) who were all in the top 15 or so.

Lunardi has us as a 10 seed today, playing Iowa State in Salt Lake City.

Cayman said:

Lunardi has us as a 10 seed today, playing Iowa State in Salt Lake City.

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We finally win a game and he drops us 2 spots?

Also Iowa went to the tournament twice at 7-9 in the Big Ten, once in 2001 by winning the conference tournament and once in 2005 as an at-large.

howeda7 said:

There was an ACC team that made it with a 6-10 conference record one time. I want to say FSU. They'd lost twice each to Duke, UNC and Maryland (I think) who were all in the top 15 or so.

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Yep.

But the worst conference record (by win percentage) to ever receive an at-large bid was Iowa State in 1992. Cyclones were 5-9 in the Big 8, got at-large bid, won a NCAA game. I think that Florida State team won a game, too.

Cayman said:

Lunardi has us as a 10 seed today, playing Iowa State in Salt Lake City.

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That would be an UGH! game, if our inability to defend the 3 against Maryland is any indication. ISU can really fill it up from behind the arc, and really hammered Kansas at The Phog over the weekend. Let's keep winning so we 1) get into the tourney, 2) give ourselves as advantageous a matchup as possible.

howeda7 said:

We finally win a game and he drops us 2 spots?

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From watching bracketologist, Lunardi can be one of the lazy types. He will update important teams regularly, but these type of drops in an untimely fashion are not unusual with Lunardi.

I've seen it before where he seems to ignore have of the at large teams during his updates until a week later.

I believe the Gophers get in pretty easily with an 8-10 record and a BTT win.
RPI for that would be around 40-45 which is good enough.