Incredible statistical improvements at WMU under Fleck.

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Trisuper

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In 2013, WMU was 1-11 but was 13-0 in 2016 before losing to Wisconsin in Cotton Bowl by 24-16. Between 2013 and 2016, home attendance at WMU grew by 60% but was limited last year by the size of the stadium at roughly 26,000 capacity. WMU hosted ESPN's game day in 2016. Average final score for WMU was 17-35 in 2013 versus 42-20 (including games against 3 Big Ten teams) in 2016-17.
In 2013, WMU had 79 rushing first downs and 116 passing versus downs versus 187 and 149, respectively in 2016-17. WMU really ran the ball well in 2016-17. The team's average rush per play was 3.6 yards in 2013 versus 5.1 yards last season. WMU gave up 154 rushing first downs in 2013 but only 111 last year.
In 2013, WMU lost 8 fumbles and had 16 passes intercepted compared to 4 and 4, respectively last season. WMU has a 31% third down conversion percentage in 2015 compared to 54% last year. In 2013, WMU scored touchdowns in 44% of its Red Zone possessions versus 72% last year. Central Michigan is WMU's biggest rival. WMU lost to CMU by 27-22 in 2013 before reeling off three straight wins by average scores of 41-20. Minnesota beat CMU in a bowl game in 2016 by 21-14 and WMU beat the same team by 41-39 during the 2016 regular season.
As Dizzy Dean used to say, "If you do it, it ain't bragging." You can say what you want about Fleck, but he did one hell of a coaching job at WMU.
 

I meant to include Sagarin ratings in this analysis but originally forgot to do so. WMU rose from 192nd in 2013 to 88th, 63rd and 21st in the following three seasons. The power rating assigned by Sagarin rose from 42 in 2013 to 65, 71 and 82 in subsequent years.
Minnesota was ranked the 58th best team by Sagarin in 2013 and 38th, 64th, 25th in subsequent seasons. Its power ranking went from 72 in 2013 to 76, 71 and 80 in subsequent years. WMU played the 114th toughest schedule in the nation last year and Minnesota played the 65th strongest. Power ratings take these differentials into consideration, of course.
 

The bit about attendance capacity isn't accurate. Waldo Stadium capacity is 30,200, and they averaged around 23,000 this last season with zero sellouts.
 

Opponent-adjusted S&P+ rank progression, 2013 to 2016

Overall
117, 58, 53, 35

Offense
106, 42, 22, 25

Defense
98, 82, 93, 69
 

What were Minnesota's S&P adjusted progression figures for the same years? Also, S&P results confirm Sagarin's with respect to strong improvement from 117 to 58 to 53 to 35. Not that Minnesota fans should want the same thing for their Gophers.
 


I should also mention that after the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons, WMU lead the MAC in recruiting all three years. Again, not that Minnesota fans need, or even should, know these facts.
 

Neat.

I also heard Fleck does a "row the boat" thing. Tell us all about it. . .
 

I'm not sure I understand the need for your martyrdom bent here. I think everybody would agree Fleck improved the WMU offense immensely and was a top MAC recruiter. Whether that offense will transfer to the big leagues where defensive players are faster and thus shrink the field remains to be seen. I'm concerned the new defense will not live up to the very high bar set Claeys and Sawvel but time will tell. Recruiting elite defensive players will cover up some coaching deficiencies so if he really is able to recruit at a helmet school level we should be ok.

As you can see the Achilles heel has been the offense. My kingdom for a QB. As a defensive-minded guy I hope we can maintain top 25ish defenses.

Minnesota
Opponent-adjusted S&P+ progression 2011-2016

Overall
85, 71, 80, 35, 26, 42

Offense
76, 98, 93, 53, 57, 84

Defense
11, 57, 74, 36, 17, 23
 

Trisuper said:
In 2013, WMU was 1-11 but was 13-0 in 2016 before losing to Wisconsin in Cotton Bowl by 24-16. Between 2013 and 2016, home attendance at WMU grew by 60% but was limited last year by the size of the stadium at roughly 26,000 capacity. WMU hosted ESPN's game day in 2016. Average final score for WMU was 17-35 in 2013 versus 42-20 (including games against 3 Big Ten teams) in 2016-17.
In 2013, WMU had 79 rushing first downs and 116 passing versus downs versus 187 and 149, respectively in 2016-17. WMU really ran the ball well in 2016-17. The team's average rush per play was 3.6 yards in 2013 versus 5.1 yards last season. WMU gave up 154 rushing first downs in 2013 but only 111 last year.
In 2013, WMU lost 8 fumbles and had 16 passes intercepted compared to 4 and 4, respectively last season. WMU has a 31% third down conversion percentage in 2015 compared to 54% last year. In 2013, WMU scored touchdowns in 44% of its Red Zone possessions versus 72% last year. Central Michigan is WMU's biggest rival. WMU lost to CMU by 27-22 in 2013 before reeling off three straight wins by average scores of 41-20. Minnesota beat CMU in a bowl game in 2016 by 21-14 and WMU beat the same team by 41-39 during the 2016 regular season.
As Dizzy Dean used to say, "If you do it, it ain't bragging." You can say what you want about Fleck, but he did one hell of a coaching job at WMU.
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Thanks for all the stats. . In a perfect world, would love to have TC as Fleck's DC.
 



Pompous Elitist said:
I'm not sure I understand the need for your martyrdom bent here. I think everybody would agree Fleck improved the WMU offense immensely and was a top MAC recruiter. Whether that offense will transfer to the big leagues where defensive players are faster and thus shrink the field remains to be seen. I'm concerned the new defense will not live up to the very high bar set Claeys and Sawvel but time will tell. Recruiting elite defensive players will cover up some coaching deficiencies so if he really is able to recruit at a helmet school level we should be ok.

As you can see the Achilles heel has been the offense. My kingdom for a QB. As a defensive-minded guy I hope we can maintain top 25ish defenses.

Minnesota
Opponent-adjusted S&P+ progression 2011-2016

Overall
85, 71, 80, 35, 26, 42

Offense
76, 98, 93, 53, 57, 84

Defense
11, 57, 74, 36, 17, 23
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Not to take anything away from Claeys and Sawvel, but our new defensive coordinator has achieved something the aforementioned never have - two top 10 defenses.


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PitinoFan said:
Not to take anything away from Claeys and Sawvel, but our new defensive coordinator has achieved something the aforementioned never have - two top 10 defenses.


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Draw your own conclusions. Did Arkansas have higher-ranked players than Minn during this timespan?

Robb Smith
Opponent-adjusted S&P+ Progression 2012, 2014-2016

Defense
13 (Rutgers), 7 (Ark), 65, 64



.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Draw your own conclusions. Did Arkansas have higher-ranked players than Minn during this timespan?

Robb Smith
Opponent-adjusted S&P+ Progression 2012, 2013-2016

Defense
13 (Rutgers), 7, 65, 64
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I don't know, but I'm confident that Arkansas faced better quality offenses week in and week out than what the Gophers have faced over the past couple years.




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PitinoFan said:
I don't know, but I'm confident that Arkansas faced better quality offenses week in and week out than what the Gophers have faced over the past couple years.


That's why the rankings are opponent-adjusted and I'm not sure I'd agree with your argument on the face of it. Defensively, yes. Looks like Arkansas has consistently had recruit classes ranked between 20-30 per 247. So the talent level was markedly higher than what Claeys and Sawvel had to work with. Don't get me wrong, I hope Smith can coach 'em up and I'm confident Fleck will improve the offense and most likely the overall recruiting.
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Pompous Elitist said:
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PitinoFan said:
I don't know, but I'm confident that Arkansas faced better quality offenses week in and week out than what the Gophers have faced over the past couple years.


That's why the rankings are opponent-adjusted and I'm not sure I'd agree with your argument on the face of it. Defensively, yes. Looks like Arkansas has consistently had recruit classes ranked between 20-30 per 247. So the talent level was markedly higher than what Claeys and Sawvel had to work with. Don't get me wrong, I hope Smith can coach 'em up and I'm confident Fleck will improve the offense and most likely the overall recruiting.
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I don't know what to expect either, but I see a lot of people assuming the defense is going to suck, when there are coaches on that side of the ball who've had past success.


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The Fleck people seem almost desperate to establish his credentials.

To quote Wren/the Walrus, the proof will be seen in the team's record at the end of the season. I don't think Fleck is a miracle worker, but I don't think he's a bum, either. He's a FB coach - who is moving up to a bigger conference, stronger competition, and the biggest spotlight he has faced in his career. Some people rise to a challenge - others fail to meet that challenge.

What will Fleck do? I don't know. Ask me at this time next year, after Fleck has gone through a full B1G season and a full recruiting year. In the end, every coach is judged by their record.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
The Fleck people seem almost desperate to establish his credentials.

To quote Wren/the Walrus, the proof will be seen in the team's record at the end of the season. I don't think Fleck is a miracle worker, but I don't think he's a bum, either. He's a FB coach - who is moving up to a bigger conference, stronger competition, and the biggest spotlight he has faced in his career. Some people rise to a challenge - others fail to meet that challenge.

What will Fleck do? I don't know. Ask me at this time next year, after Fleck has gone through a full B1G season and a full recruiting year. In the end, every coach is judged by their record.
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One thing is probably guaranteed. The new Gophers Coach will get a lot more attention and press at the pre season meetings.... remember when just a couple reporters showed up to listen to Kill and he had maybe 2 questions asked? Hey maybe this year some Minnesota media might attend....
 

I loved the Claeys/Sawvel defenses and hope that Fleck's regime can at least equal them, but I feel like they are being a bit overrated. After decades of pathetic defenses with Brewster, Mason, and Wacker (outside of one year with Mason) it felt shocking to have a competent defense. The previous staff implemented a nice secondary that allowed our defense to 'bend but not break.' (I hate that term BTW) But it's not like we ever had a dominating defense like wisconsin...there's plenty of room to the upside with the change - we shall see if they can get it done.
 

GopherHomer said:
I loved the Claeys/Sawvel defenses and hope that Fleck's regime can at least equal them, but I feel like they are being a bit overrated. After decades of pathetic defenses with Brewster, Mason, and Wacker (outside of one year with Mason) it felt shocking to have a competent defense. The previous staff implemented a nice secondary that allowed our defense to 'bend but not break.' (I hate that term BTW) But it's not like we ever had a dominating defense like wisconsin...there's plenty of room to the upside with the change - we shall see if they can get it done.
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Totally agree. The S&P rankings back it up too. The Gophers defense improved significantly in the national rankings during the Kill/Claeys era, however, they were still a middle of the road B1G defense.

The last 3 years were the best Gopher defenses and they finished 6th, 8th, and 6th overall in the B1G.
 

How would you guys honestly feel if Fleck had retained Sawvel? Stoked? Bummed? I realize that's water under the bridge but I'm just curious how one really feels about Robb Smith.

The defensive overachievement we saw under Claeys and Sawvel is even more impressive because they did not have a good offense helping them out. The innovation we started to see under
Sawvel the latter part of the season and in particular the bowl game was exciting. I hope Smith continues that philosophy this coming season instead of blowing it up.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Totally agree. The S&P rankings back it up too. The Gophers defense improved significantly in the national rankings during the Kill/Claeys era, however, they were still a middle of the road B1G defense.

The last 3 years were the best Gopher defenses and they finished 6th, 8th, and 6th overall in the B1G.
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What metric? When posting stats it is helpful to know the context. S&P, yardage, scoring, etc.
 


And what were our Big Ten recruiting rankings from 2010 onward? My point is they did more with less, pretty consistently on the defensive side while the offensive staff pretty much par or less than par. I'd argue it's a lot harder to be elite at defense these days than it is to be good at offense with the way the rules are, and the offensive innovations, e.g., spread, zone read, forward pass, run pass option, etc.
 


Pompous Elitists apparently wants things both ways. Arkansas may have better players because they recruited better players. But about half of the teams that year in and year out that make the top 20 in recruiting are from the SEC. So Arkansas' defenses played against many of the very best players in the country week after week--especially on their side of the SEC.
Also, a big part of the results you get on offense or defense surrounds the players you recruit. Pompous Elitist says Claeys got more done with less, but who recruited the players with whom Claeys worked?
 

Again, the rankings are opponent-adjusted. I don't know how to explain that to you any more plainly. It doesn't matter if they played in the SEC or Mt. West. Opponent-adjusted metrics. This is why they are more useful than total yards or total scoring as those have less context attached. Are they perfect? Nope. But they do help paint part of the picture.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
And what were our Big Ten recruiting rankings from 2010 onward? My point is they did more with less, pretty consistently on the defensive side while the offensive staff pretty much par or less than par. I'd argue it's a lot harder to be elite at defense these days than it is to be good at offense with the way the rules are, and the offensive innovations, e.g., spread, zone read, forward pass, run pass option, etc.
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Yep, B1G has a bunch of top 25 defenses, Gophers included, and Gophs do more with less in comparison. GWG likes that stat because it makes the Gophs defense look average I guess.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Again, the rankings are opponent-adjusted. I don't know how to explain that to you any more plainly. It doesn't matter if they played in the SEC or Mt. West. Opponent-adjusted metrics. This is why they are more useful than total yards or total scoring as those have less context attached. Are they perfect? Nope. But they do help paint part of the picture.
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We all know, Pompous Elitist, that power rankings from S&P and Sagarin are adjusted for the schedule teams play. But you are the one that tried to explain Arkansas' defensive results by virtue of their recruiting when they play against many SEC teams that always recruit better than Arkansas does. How do you think Kill's defenses would have fared playing Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi and Mississippi State every year? The 2014 Gopher defense got taken down pretty hard by Missouri of the SEC on 1-1-15.
And two of Kill's defenses were helped more by David Cobb and the offensive line lead by Olson and Epping than anything the Gopher's did on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota absolutely bled the clock against many opponents in 2013 and 2014, just ask Northwestern. When the other team's offense is off the field, your own defensive unit looks awfully good.
Of the 14 teams in the Big Ten, Minnesota's defenses have ranked in the second of three tiers. Gopher fans loved them because its the first time they seen a Minnesota team even play defense in decades.
 

Claeys and Sawvel were two of the better defensive chess players I've seen in a long time. What they lacked in bringing in highly-recruited guys, they more than made up for in developing players (especially in the Back 7) and putting guys in roles where they could succeed. The mixed-and-matched extremely well and what they did against Washington State was just an amazing job of coaching.

Only two minor downsides. One was that they went Riverboat Gambler every now and then and would get burned and sometimes had problems in the base defense. Both things are probably attributable to not having a top-tier athlete at each position. It will be interesting to see how Smith changes things up.
 

Trisuper said:
In 2013, WMU was 1-11 but was 13-0 in 2016 before losing to Wisconsin in Cotton Bowl by 24-16. Between 2013 and 2016, home attendance at WMU grew by 60% but was limited last year by the size of the stadium at roughly 26,000 capacity. WMU hosted ESPN's game day in 2016. Average final score for WMU was 17-35 in 2013 versus 42-20 (including games against 3 Big Ten teams) in 2016-17.
In 2013, WMU had 79 rushing first downs and 116 passing versus downs versus 187 and 149, respectively in 2016-17. WMU really ran the ball well in 2016-17. The team's average rush per play was 3.6 yards in 2013 versus 5.1 yards last season. WMU gave up 154 rushing first downs in 2013 but only 111 last year.
In 2013, WMU lost 8 fumbles and had 16 passes intercepted compared to 4 and 4, respectively last season. WMU has a 31% third down conversion percentage in 2015 compared to 54% last year. In 2013, WMU scored touchdowns in 44% of its Red Zone possessions versus 72% last year. Central Michigan is WMU's biggest rival. WMU lost to CMU by 27-22 in 2013 before reeling off three straight wins by average scores of 41-20. Minnesota beat CMU in a bowl game in 2016 by 21-14 and WMU beat the same team by 41-39 during the 2016 regular season.
As Dizzy Dean used to say, "If you do it, it ain't bragging." You can say what you want about Fleck, but he did one hell of a coaching job at WMU.
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numbers didnt help the Kill group get to the top level of the big ten. I am sure you can dig up Kills numbers and how they statistically improved at all the stops he was at. Difference is Kill coached many more years than PJ has. Flecks numbers at a lower level competition doesnt make for comparing to the BigTen.

Anybody want to think about a young Dan Monson type? he was great at Gonzaga but couldnt rebuild a Gopher BB Team. Kill was great at other stops but only got to middle of the pack here.

I hope Fleck can do it but history and the U of MN administration seems to put up road blocks

Heres's to crushing road blocks
 

PMWinSTP said:
Yep, B1G has a bunch of top 25 defenses, Gophers included, and Gophs do more with less in comparison. GWG likes that stat because it makes the Gophs defense look average I guess.
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Yes, because they were an average B1G defense.
 

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