Looking at 2017 schedule

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SamSquatch said:
OK, add another season and it's 3-2 Nebraska head-to-head, and then break out wins against T25 opponents. Neb has had the ability to win those games and we just have not.
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The only ranked team they beat this year was #22 Oregon which just lost to Oregon State to finish 4-8. They beat one ranked team in 2015 and zero ranked teams in 2013-14, but other than that...good point.
 

SamSquatch said:
OK, add another season and it's 3-2 Nebraska head-to-head, and then break out wins against T25 opponents. Neb has had the ability to win those games and we just have not.
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2012 Nebraska beat #22 Michigan who finished 8-5. (Nebraska 10-4)
2013 Nebraska beat #22 Georgia in bowl who finished 8-5. (Nebraska 9-4)
2014 Nebraska was 0-4 against ranked teams including MN (Nebraska 9-4).
2015 Nebraska upset #7 Michigan St. (Nebraska finished 5-7) won bowl like MN
2016 Nebraska beat #22 Oregon who finished 4-8. (Nebraska 9-3)

They've won three toss up games against #22 and have 1 upset in the last five years.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
2012 Nebraska beat #22 Michigan who finished 8-5. (Nebraska 10-4)
2013 Nebraska beat #22 Georgia in bowl who finished 8-5. (Nebraska 9-4)
2014 Nebraska was 0-4 against ranked teams including MN (Nebraska 9-4).
2015 Nebraska upset #7 Michigan St. (Nebraska finished 5-7) won bowl like MN
2016 Nebraska beat #22 Oregon who finished 4-8. (Nebraska 9-4)

They've won three toss up games against #22 and have 1 upset in the last five years.
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I think that's good data but where do we sit in comparison?

Or just general good quality non-con wins?
 

SamSquatch said:
I think that's good data but where do we sit in comparison?
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About 1 game off each season. Win our bowl game and we equal their 2014 season. Last year we had same season except they upset #7. 2013 we beat them when they were ranked. They won bowl and we lost bowl. 2012 was really only notable difference.
 

Winning our bowl game is very important for proof of competency. I think that #7 upset is substantial. I also think wins against competent non-cons are important indicators.

I would disagree that these programs are on the same tier or that they're likely to have equivalent future success, and I think almost everyone nationally would share that sentiment. Certainly hope I'm wrong and we can clean Herby's clock.
 


SamSquatch said:
Winning our bowl game is very important for proof of competency. I think that #7 upset is substantial. I also think wins against competent non-cons are important indicators.

I would disagree that these programs are on the same tier or that they're likely to have equivalent future success, and I think almost everyone nationally would share that sentiment. Certainly hope I'm wrong and we can clean Herby's clock.
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Add to it that Nebraska has a 63 year old retread football coach and we have a first time 48 year old coach. We'll see where things go.
 

SamSquatch said:
There is no way Neb is a toss up. MSU maybe but given what we know of the two teams it should probably be moved to likely loss along with Neb. It is important we acknowledge that Neb is a way better team than us. We can't keep going into off-seasons thinking we're at that level. It's wishful thinking and it retards the conversation we need to have about the actual state of the program.
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Nebraska won 9 games this year, we won 8. The difference in records comes down to that they beat us by one score. What is it that makes them "way better" than Minnesota?
 

SamSquatch said:
Well that's like, your opinion man.

Forget margin of victory. The hubris it takes to compare the success and wins Neb has had this season and the recent past to what the Gophers are is absurd. We are not equals. Saying it on this forum certainly doesn't make it true. To say that our football programs should be considered equals is just outlandish. They also control the head-to-head and are more likely to have near-term future success.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. There isn't a legitimate argument to make that says we're currently, or soon likely to be, better than Neb.

There are people on this site that want the best for the Gophs. That accept the downs with the ups, and acknowledge them both. Being unwilling to have honest conversations about the state of the program is what keeps it in a perpetual state of mediocrity.
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The state of the program is we went 8-4 lost at Lincoln by a Touchdown and we return more starters and guys in the two deeps then they do. Oh and we play them at home and we have had recent success vs Nebraska. No one said it was lock, it's a toss up, these aren't Tom Osbourne mid 90's thugs, they can be beaten on our home field. To say it's a lock to lose means you have been under a rock the past four years
 




Nebraska is a tossup. They are breaking in a new quarterback (like us), and we get them at home. Our defense makes this a matchup game, as the last 4 years will attest.
 

I like us to win 12 next year. Put me down for a college playoff spot.
 

No matter how you look at the schedule, we will always need to win 2 out 4 of these games and 3 out of 4 would be better.
Northwestern
Iowa
Nebraska
Wisconsin
That is what these teams do every year that they have 9/10 win seasons. If we cannot do this, then we are with the Purdue, Illinois, Indiana group and we should always be better than that.
 

Joe Hardy said:
No matter how you look at the schedule, we will always need to win 2 out 4 of these games and 3 out of 4 would be better.
Northwestern
Iowa
Nebraska
Wisconsin
That is what these teams do every year that they have 9/10 win seasons. If we cannot do this, then we are with the Purdue, Illinois, Indiana group and we should always be better than that.
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pretty much nailed it
 



bemidjigopher said:
The state of the program is we went 8-4 lost at Lincoln by a Touchdown and we return more starters and guys in the two deeps then they do. Oh and we play them at home and we have had recent success vs Nebraska. No one said it was lock, it's a toss up, these aren't Tom Osbourne mid 90's thugs, they can be beaten on our home field. To say it's a lock to lose means you have been under a rock the past four years
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Never said lock. I don't think it's a toss-up. You think it's 50-50 and I think it's more like 70-30 in Neb's favor. No need for the vitriol simply because I believe their program is in a better place and has had better wins recently.

I live near the front range in CO so yes I suppose I live under the shadow of many rocks.
 


Nebraska has won 9 or 10 games 9 out of the past 11 seasons and won their division 5 of those years. They are by every definition 'way better' than us.
 

theTurning said:
Nebraska has won 9 or 10 games 9 out of the past 11 seasons and won their division 5 of those years. They are by every definition 'way better' than us.
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Please don't use hard facts. It confuses the delusional that equate close losses with wins.
 

theTurning said:
Nebraska has won 9 or 10 games 9 out of the past 11 seasons and won their division 5 of those years. They are by every definition 'way better' than us.
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This debate started by someone suggesting that next year's game is a toss-up. Not many people deny that Nebraska has a better history or that they have been better in general over the past 11 seasons. However, what happened 11 years ago doesn't have much affect on what will happen next season.
 

theTurning said:
Nebraska has won 9 or 10 games 9 out of the past 11 seasons and won their division 5 of those years. They are by every definition 'way better' than us.
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They have won the big ten leaders/west division a grand total of one time (and were destroyed in the title game). we've won 8 games 4 of the last 5 years. A one game difference with a split in head to head meetings is definitely not "way better". way better currently includes Wisconsin, Ohio St, and Michigan.
 

Not to be picky, but we've won 8 games 3 out of 5, with 6th, 2 5th and 4th place division rankings.

In Nebraska's past 5 seasons they have a 10-win and 3 9-win seasons with 1st and 3 2nd place finishes.

That gap seems pretty large to me.
 


We win all of our non-conference games along with Maryland Purdue and Illinois. Pair our losses via graduation and recruiting I would say right now we are underdogs in our other 6 games.
 

TruDat said:
We win all of our non-conference games along with Maryland Purdue and Illinois. Pair our losses via graduation and recruiting I would say right now we are underdogs in our other 6 games.
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Means a lot coming from you.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Means a lot coming from you.
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Meaning?
If you think I am wrong let's hear it? Off the top of my head we are graduating 2 DL 2 LB AND 2 DB. We are going to be breaking in a new qb (been hinted that are starting qb may not be on the roster yet). I don't feel good about the WR group coming back. Plus Pirsig (our best lineman) is a Sr and I for one am not sold on this olineman group.

You are up.
 

As I keep saying, wanting something to happen does not mean it will happen.

I want the Gophers to move up to that next level - winning 9 or even 10 games on a regular basis, and playing in major bowl games.

But - the records don't lie. Since 1967, the Gophers have finished the season ranked in the top 20 twice. one 10-win season in 2003.

49 years - two seasons in the top 20.

So, what is the basis for optimism? To believe the Gophers will move to the next level, you have to believe that:
A. Tracy Claeys is the right coach for the program
B. Claeys and his staff are able to recruit (and or "coach up") the talent needed to improve the team's performance
C. Jay Johnson's offense will show a significant improvement (while breaking in a new QB).

That's a lot to swallow. I would love to be that optimistic - but I'm not. I just don't seen any clear proof that the Gophers are a program poised to take the next step. I see a program that, at best, can hold onto the current level - win 7 or 8 games and play in a mid-level bowl game. To move beyond that level will require a higher level of talent, and (IMHO) better coaching.
 


TruDat said:
Meaning?
If you think I am wrong let's hear it? Off the top of my head we are graduating 2 DL 2 LB AND 2 DB. We are going to be breaking in a new qb (been hinted that are starting qb may not be on the roster yet). I don't feel good about the WR group coming back. Plus Pirsig (our best lineman) is a Sr and I for one am not sold on this olineman group.

You are up.
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Have you not seen what other teams are graduating?

Nebraska loses a quarterback that gave us major problems with his mobility, their starting RB, their #1 + #3 + #4 receivers, their #1 TE (and #5 receiver), #2 TE, their starting center, a starting DE who led their team in sacks and TFL, two starting LBs (one of whom was the team's #1 tackler), and their All Big Ten safety who was #2 in tackles.

3-9 Michigan State loses their starting QB, #1 + #3 receivers, #1 TE (and #4 receiver), #2 TE, three starting OL, an All-Big Ten and potential 1st round pick at DT, an All-Big Ten starting LB, a starting CB, and a starting S.
 

Plinnius said:
Have you not seen what other teams are graduating?

Nebraska loses a quarterback that gave us major problems with his mobility, their starting RB, their #1 + #3 + #4 receivers, their #1 TE (and #5 receiver), #2 TE, their starting center, a starting DE who led their team in sacks and TFL, two starting LBs (one of whom was the team's #1 tackler), and their All Big Ten safety who was #2 in tackles.

3-9 Michigan State loses their starting QB, #1 + #3 receivers, #1 TE (and #4 receiver), #2 TE, three starting OL, an All-Big Ten and potential 1st round pick at DT, an All-Big Ten starting LB, a starting CB, and a starting S.
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And according to Trudat only Minnesota is losing seniors. Typical Gopher fan where the glass is always half empty.
 

TruDat said:
Meaning?
If you think I am wrong let's hear it? Off the top of my head we are graduating 2 DL 2 LB AND 2 DB. We are going to be breaking in a new qb (been hinted that are starting qb may not be on the roster yet). I don't feel good about the WR group coming back. Plus Pirsig (our best lineman) is a Sr and I for one am not sold on this olineman group.

You are up.
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Your posts speak for themselves.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
As I keep saying, wanting something to happen does not mean it will happen.

I want the Gophers to move up to that next level - winning 9 or even 10 games on a regular basis, and playing in major bowl games.

But - the records don't lie. Since 1967, the Gophers have finished the season ranked in the top 20 twice. one 10-win season in 2003.

49 years - two seasons in the top 20.

So, what is the basis for optimism? To believe the Gophers will move to the next level, you have to believe that:
A. Tracy Claeys is the right coach for the program
B. Claeys and his staff are able to recruit (and or "coach up") the talent needed to improve the team's performance
C. Jay Johnson's offense will show a significant improvement (while breaking in a new QB).

That's a lot to swallow. I would love to be that optimistic - but I'm not. I just don't seen any clear proof that the Gophers are a program poised to take the next step. I see a program that, at best, can hold onto the current level - win 7 or 8 games and play in a mid-level bowl game. To move beyond that level will require a higher level of talent, and (IMHO) better coaching.
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Offense (passing attack) only needs incremental improvement with this defense. Get the total offense ranked in the 70s instead of around 100 and we'll do just fine.
 

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